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2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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The level of political debate in 2016 America... Hopefully we look back on this election and laugh, and don't see it as the beginning of the end.
For the first time in quite a while Trump has dipped below 100% in terms of his delegate accrual pace to reach 1,237.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
Another interesting fun fact - its being estimated that approximately 80% of Rubio voters will move to Cruz or Kasich, so basically, Cruz is going to win a few more states and deprive Trump access to delegates, and Kasich will likely continue to accrue proportional delegates (despite not winning any more states), thereby depriving Trump of further needed delegates to reach 1,237. Looks like we are moving to a brokered convention where Trump and Cruz will comparable delegates (as in within 300 of each other).
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
Another interesting fun fact - its being estimated that approximately 80% of Rubio voters will move to Cruz or Kasich, so basically, Cruz is going to win a few more states and deprive Trump access to delegates, and Kasich will likely continue to accrue proportional delegates (despite not winning any more states), thereby depriving Trump of further needed delegates to reach 1,237. Looks like we are moving to a brokered convention where Trump and Cruz will comparable delegates (as in within 300 of each other).
Sanders 74
Trump 69
Clinton 68
Kaisch 63
Cruz 45
Trump or Sanders would be the oldest first term president ever
Clinton would be second to Reagan
So unless we get the unlikely scenario of Kaisch / Cruz not only becoming the nominee but somehow winning the election its very likely that the next president will be at least 69
I'll say it again: feck sake.
Hillary looks great for her age.
Those ages, specifically Cruz at 45 worry me. He's going to be around for years to come.
I really wish Warren had ran. She is 66. Chance passed?
I dont think Warren wants the post. I feel that if she ran should would be the one to beat.
Hatch has also said they might move to confirm in the lame duck session (if Hillary wins)
There were no indications anyone could beat Hillary. Sanders' numbers were unexpected, and he ran after touring the ountry for months to gauge support. She didn't do that, and is said to have had a meeting with Hillary in 2015. This was the result:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...d-elizabeth-warren-met-one-on-one-in-december
Probably - presuming Hillary wins then stands for re-election she would be older than bernie is
If clinton does not win then I imagine president trump will blow the country up long before another election can happen
at which point...the nomination should be withdrawn.Hatch has also said they might move to confirm in the lame duck session (if Hillary wins)
Hatch has also said they might move to confirm in the lame duck session (if Hillary wins)
Exactly right. Garland now, or Literally Mao Zedong later, your loss.
I also find it telling that they're explicitly making plans and negotiating offers on the distinct possibility that Trump will lose. They seemed pretty damned confident in 2012, by contrast.
Terrible, and I'm not being sarcastic. Helps no one. He did follow it up with this though:
And of course, every piece of dirt you can dig up on Bernie's staff, I can dig up on Hillary herself
:http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/03/hillary-wants-t.html
On another note, the comments on this are very interesting:
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersFor...enailly_unpopular_opinion_about_the_campaign/
Disorganisation in NC, MA and Nevada, people being parachuted in from outside the state, organisation not matching volunteer enthusiasm.
No early voting registration by the campaign (Ohio went 70-30 Hillary in early voting)
Very negative comparisons to Obama's campaigns
The loss of ACORN may be driving down turnout for all Dems.
And the party itself doesn't seem that keen on turnout: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/election/dem-voter-registration-leading-turnout-article-1.2545420
It's because while they see the support and passion Trump has generated, they are well aware of the backlash he will face in the GE.
He'll get a lot of Republican voters out...by the same token, the Democrats will go into full scaremongering mode....
Hey latinos, if you don't come out and vote against Trump...your relatives or neighbors will be kicked out of the country!
Oh and don't forget, he said you were all rapists.
Big question now in my mind is, how does Trump try to overcome that, and how big of a meltdown will he have when he can't
Also, I am fully awaiting being revolted by apologists who come out of the woodwork to be wheeled in front of the media once he gets the nomination. "Of course he didn't mean it when he said all Mexicans are rapists, he was speaking figuratively.. like.. that they're eh, raping the values of the American dream... in a good way, to become, eh, better Americans. As a Mexican myself, I should know".
Its going to be a very divisive election if trumps involved
of course coming out to vote is only part of the issue and it starts with people registering to vote
It will be interesting to see if there is a surge in different demographic groups registering / checking they are registered if (when) Trump becomes the nominee
I have visions of Trump supporters carrying round assault rifles in the vicinity of polling centres in open carry states and
Not trying to dig dirt, just that usually when a strategist mentions having to switch over pledged delegates you know their goose is cooked! Hillary's campaign was pretty awful in '08 having read the behind the scenes stuff.Terrible, and I'm not being sarcastic. Helps no one. He did follow it up with this though:
And of course, every piece of dirt you can dig up on Bernie's staff, I can dig up on Hillary herself
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/03/hillary-wants-t.html
On another note, the comments on this are very interesting:
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersFor...enailly_unpopular_opinion_about_the_campaign/
Disorganisation in NC, MA and Nevada, people being parachuted in from outside the state, organisation not matching volunteer enthusiasm.
No early voting registration by the campaign (Ohio went 70-30 Hillary in early voting)
Very negative comparisons to Obama's campaigns
The loss of ACORN may be driving down turnout for all Dems.
And the party itself doesn't seem that keen on turnout: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/election/dem-voter-registration-leading-turnout-article-1.2545420
How's enthusiasm in general within the Bernie ranks? Is this just a bout of frustration after Tuesday that'll go away in the upcoming states? I saw some quotes from reddit (haven't seen them directly myself) of people actually discouraging others from donating to the campaign now given the unlikelihood of him still being able to win, have you seen much of that? I can see the argument as Bernie surely has enough money now to last the rest of the primary campaign, but obviously you never want to give up until you have to.
What is advantageous for the Dems? Sanders staying in or opting out? Seen arguments for both outcomes
Stay in...keep Democratic voters engaged and excited, not to mention, draw in new voters. But come the convention...strike a conciliatory tone. Hey, Hillary is what used to be known as a moderate republican...but, she is a million times better than what the actual Republican Party is offering.
So, don't stay at home...come out and vote!
I'd say dropping out, the more time and money that can be spent organising for November the better as far as I'm concerned.
Every primary night brings posts along the lines of "I donated 43k and am now homeless" by obvious trolls. This time though it's gone on for a few more days with (a few) actual users saying they can't afford to waste any more money. Though for a few weeks the "line" has been, we need volunteers not money.
This is the official campaign response:
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4aov4w/how_we_respond_to_this_moment/
Comments are not positive
I think a good part of the core is still motivated (and a few victories will help), but people are starting to drop out.
She has declared she won't spend a penny more in the primaries IIRC.
I don't know.
If he stays in, if he wants to be true to his donors (hahaha), he needs to campaign hard. That means attacking her, harder than he has so far. Go after her on foreign policy (she apparently didn't read the Iraq documents but still said that not just does he have WMDs, he is sheltering Al Qaeda), reverse the NRA attack (she gets money from their lobbyists), her college plan is not different from the current one, stuff like that. A few of those might be hard to shake off for her.
On the other hand, him dropping out gives 24/7 news coverage to Trump.
That would let the Republicans (Trump, in this sad case) control the narrative. If there's one thing you don't want heading into a massive election is the other side deciding the talking points. At least with a contest on the democratic side their talking points get air time.
I saw Priorities USA had said that, the official campaign now too?
I see it from the other perspective, by having clarity on the nominee you can focus all of your energies on preparing in the key states, getting the GE fundraising going, get the attacks going to have Trump fully defined as the dangerous bully before he's even been confirmed as nominee. I don't think the Clinton campaign would actively stop going on registration drives as the link Berbatrick posted suggests, but it worries me a lot that I can see the logic behind it. The GOP focus all their attacks on her anyway, as does Trump.
But of course from Bernie's perspective, he probably doesn't want Clinton to be able to stop guarding her left flank so early on.
Big question now in my mind is, how does Trump try to overcome that, and how big of a meltdown will he have when he can't
Also, I am fully awaiting being revolted by apologists who come out of the woodwork to be wheeled in front of the media once he gets the nomination. "Of course he didn't mean it when he said all Mexicans are rapists, he was speaking figuratively.. like.. that they're eh, raping the values of the American dream... in a good way, to become, eh, better Americans. As a Mexican myself, I should know".
He didn't actually say all Mexicans are rapists though did he?
Don't the primaries help on this front? Getting people involved in the election cycle months in advance?
"They're sending us their thieves, their drug dealers, murderers and their rapists.. And some, I assume, are good people." That's barely paraphrased.
I just saw the headline, could have been them and not the campaign...
One of the strategies Bernie could do other than focusing on Hillary is to just diss Trump 24/7. Bad at business, clueless on foreign policy, racist, divider. Would put his face constantly on the news.
The key states left in the primaries aren't necessarily the key states in the GE - California, New York and New Jersey are some of the biggest prizes left that would be reasonably well contested, but they aren't where you want to focus energy as a Democrat when looking towards November. Whereas Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa etc have all already voted. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are probably the only ones left, so I think the downsides outweigh the upsides now.
That would be good. One of the reasons I think he'll fully back Hillary when the time comes is because as imperfect as he thinks she would be, giving Trump any kind of shot at winning would be unconscionable to him.
As near as damn it, and has had the chance many times to retract or change it, but has always stood by it. The same as his ridiculous claim the other night that as many as 35% to 40% of Muslims hate America and are Jihadists who want to attack the USA. He just hears shit and thinks it's right and says it, then gets all offended and acts the victim when he's called out on it. He's a feckin imbecile.
He almost exactly said that.
With latinos being a big voting bloc and only getting bigger, I cannot see how he overcomes that.
The left will play that on a revolving loop, along with his "let's ban all muslims" comments once his status as the Republican nominee is confirmed.
"Latinos" aren't a homogenous organism who all vote exactly the same. There are conservative Latinos, liberal ones, moderate ones etc. The same applies to African Americans - there is a left wing movement, there are centrists, there are even a few conservatives out there. One thing is for sure though, you can't be President of the United States without getting a sizeable chunk of the non-white vote these days, and Trump is facing a massive headache given his past statements.
His comments on "listening to himself" when it comes to foreign policy are hilarious. I mean, that right there should be enough to guarantee he was seen as a joke candidate or someone who was just trolling the GOP, but people buy in to it as if he is some kind of feckin political genius. All his countless lies, exaggerations, rude offensive behaviour, stupid comments, flip flopping on policies, and times he just won't answer things because he knows he's talking shite, and still more and more people vote for him. It's bizarre. I get people want change, but surely you would want someone with experience, intelligence and who could be trusted?
Trouble with all his comments is they can't really be used against him with any degree of success during the GOP primaries, since the nutjobs that support him seem to love that sort of thing. They can and will however be used against him in the Gen election where a vast majority of people will take offense to his comments. This is why the only way he can win in the Gen is if he hammers Hillary into submission and at the same time, she has some sort of bad legal news.
no doubt...same as though Jews in the main tend to vote democratic - there is a not so insignificant number who vote Republican and can't be taken for granted in a place like Florida.
But, negative numbers Trump is generating from the across the latino/hispanic community are huge. Obviously Dubya made a concerted effort to woo them, and did it successfully. But since then, it has gone downhill and Trump has taken it to a new level.
But he has a good brain, you know, a terrific brain, everybody says it, just ask anyone, terrific.
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