Any chance of a Hillary/Bernie ticket? Might make sense, would unify the party.
2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
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Nil. There's no way the Dems will feature a 69/74 year old ticket.
They do get a bit over the top at times. I suppose you don't get attention by being 'pretty sure'.
In their defense, they've gotten all of them right until Michigan (Iowa was a close shave, but still)
The thing with polling is that it works until it doesn't. Emil Hurja, the pioneer of opinion polling who oversaw FDR election strategy, twice, got everything right, until he betrayed his own method and bet against FDR himself in his 3rd term. Pollsters can be caught with their own successes, even the best of them.
Drumpf has a table of Drumpf Wine, Drimpf Steak, Drumpf Water and Drumpf Vodka behind the podium he will be speaking fromFFS, the bloke is an absolute tool.
Here he goes.....
Place in the cabinet perhaps.
how much does this victory for Sanders change the Delegates count by?
They haven't. I think they got a couple of states wrong on super Tuesday which Cruz won.
Hillary still more delegates last night owing to blow out win in Mississippi.
cheers!
I meant on the Dem side.
Every poll that came out had Hillary winning by between 10 and 30 points. The blame for this one isn't on 538
Can't believe Hillary messed up Michigan (obviously Sanders and his team deserve credit), but - this now means Ohio is a real toss up. She'll win Florida, but Ohio isn't nailed on anymore. There's a disconnect somewhere with her message and delivery - a lack of sincerity. She needs to wise up very quickly.
If she loses the GE to Trump, history will never ever stop laughing at her.
As for Trump, as expected - with only one state out of 4 being a Caucus, he did very well.
But, we need to talk about Rubio, is his campaign the most disgraceful thing ever? He is making JEB! look good ffs. Polling below 10%
If she loses the GE to Trump, history will never ever stop laughing at her.
As for Trump, as expected - with only one state out of 4 being a Caucus, he did very well.
But, we need to talk about Rubio, is his campaign the most disgraceful thing ever? He is making JEB! look good ffs. Polling below 10%
he would be better off dropping out now and start planning for a run in 2020 - throw his support (or what is left of it behind kaish and score party points)But, we need to talk about Rubio, is his campaign the most disgraceful thing ever? He is making JEB! look good ffs. Polling below 10%
if he gets schlonged (as the don may say) in florida I think his entire career could be effectivley over
Oh, it always is. You can't make predictions and then claim that it's not your fault because the data was wrong. It's your fault for using the wrong data.Every poll that came out had Hillary winning by between 10 and 30 points. The blame for this one isn't on 538
I think Ohio won't be another Michigan. Firstly, Clinton's campaign will have wise up and devote more time, money and effort for their turn out operation. Secondly, her voters who feel complacent would be reeling from this loss and make sure they come to vote. Thirdly, Sanders's stance on fracking makes him a hard sell in the state.
Florida is another matter entirely. His urgency in combating climate change will resonate with them, what with the flood and drought.
Florida is another matter entirely. His urgency in combating climate change will resonate with them, what with the flood and drought.
Speaking of Ohio, latest batch of polls out today are pretty much a match of the Michigan run up, one that puts her up 30%, the other only 9%
Fairly consistent lead of 25-30 in Florida though. Which, if replicated on polling day, would stretch her lead out by another 50-60 delegates.
Fairly consistent lead of 25-30 in Florida though. Which, if replicated on polling day, would stretch her lead out by another 50-60 delegates.
That's bullshit. All of the data from multiple pollsters said the same thing, a big Clinton lead, either you trust that data for each and every state or you don't bother with any of them.
You most certainly do not need to state the confidence of the prediction as over 99% if you're not confident in your data!
There was no reason not to be at that stage. The fact it's the biggest polling upset in a primary since 1984 is worth noting. I imagine they'll be dialling it down for future races though.
There's something of having your cake and eating it too if your model is built on using other's poll data to make your projections rather than gathering your own data, then also blaming them when your prediction is wrong.
As I said originally, I do suspect they play up their confidence because it's their selling point. If you do that, you deserve to be called silly in the rare occasions when you get it wrong.
There is, a bit.
I want him to stay on and get beat in Florida. That would effectively doom his run for Governor in 2018 even before it got off the ground.
What if he u-turn and seeks re-election for the Senate?
For people more in the know about US politics - where do the GOP go after this? If Rubio gets smashed, Cruz loses to Trump, Trump loses to Hillary etc, what direction do they go? Further tea party, less tea party, more racist/less racist etc.. Who are the ones waiting in the wings to pick the bones of this campaign?
On the face of it, it looks enormously divisive. An outsider who's contributed to Dem campaigns and gets his policies mixed up with Sanders in that famous interview is running away with it. Their heads in the leadership must be spinning.
Trump won Hawaii? I expected Hawaiians to be a lot less Trumpy.
No chance they'll be less racist. They tried that for exactly 2-3 months after the '12 elections. A lot of the party leadership, conservative talk show and even people like Hannity tried to reframe the immigration issue...Hannity actually spoke of a compromise that would end this issue once and for all.
But, like I said, a couple of months and it all changed - 'we lost the election because we weren't conservative enough. People like McCain and Romney are centrist and it got us nothing....no, we need to double down on the crazy!'
Look, Rubio is only 44, and Canadian Ted isn't much older - both have a lot of time on their hands. I still think Rubio has a bright future in politics, he ticks a lot of different boxes and while it might not have worked for him this time around....what's to say in 4/8 years time, it won't be different?
Can't believe Hillary messed up Michigan (obviously Sanders and his team deserve credit), but - this now means Ohio is a real toss up. She'll win Florida, but Ohio isn't nailed on anymore. There's a disconnect somewhere with her message and delivery - a lack of sincerity. She needs to wise up very quickly.
If she loses the GE to Trump, history will never ever stop laughing at her.
As for Trump, as expected - with only one state out of 4 being a Caucus, he did very well.
But, we need to talk about Rubio, is his campaign the most disgraceful thing ever? He is making JEB! look good ffs. Polling below 10%
Anyway you look at it, the mainstream Republicans candidates all lack that certain something. It's not for the lack of experience or political nous, but they just are not charismatic men. Trump, despite being the tremendous blowhard he is, can hold a room and have you listen to his (insane) rhetoric.
He reminded them yesterday that he employs a lot of Hawaiians at his hotel in Honolulu.
Unfortunately I agree with this. They will be rebranded and repackaged for 4 years time. However they will still have the core beliefs and be just as dangerous.
As above, unfortunately I agree with this as well. Drumpf is full of shit but he resonates with many voters in the same way that Farage does for UKIP in the UK. Add to that so many are impressed by his wealth and actually believe the bullshite he talks, and also so many are not intelligent enough to know or care any different and you can see why he is doing so well. A very sad indication of where America and the rest of the world is at the moment.
Many, many people wasn't it? and he has many, many tremendous friends there too.Thats assuming that the don does not win...
because if he does there probably wont be republican or democratic parties in 4 years - there probably wont even be elections
he will be emperor till he dies and ivanka will take over
all hail the trump
On a more serious note though if Rubio does not drop out before Florida and he gets schlonged by big hands don he is going to be a broken little marco and probably damaged goods as far as a 2020 run goes.
In a 'vote for me or I'll double your unemployment rate' way?
More so in a "Hawaii isn't irrelevant to me because I do business there" kind of way.
Unfortunately I doubt there will be a world if he wins. Seriously. Nothing good will come of him being elected.
I think Marco is young enough to still have a shot, it just depends how badly he is beaten, if this continues, I agree, it could break him. BUT! People love nothing more than a failure to success story. The underdog fighting back and coming back could resonate well with many supporters if he gets his message across properly and starts to appeal to a wider audience.
On a slightly different note, has anyone noticed how Drumpf has changed his stance on much of his Foreign policy issues and especially the "water boarding and worse" stuff lately? I think some advisors may have pointed out some facts about war crimes to him. The debate tomorrow should be fun because I think he has been having to listen to people regarding lots of things he has been saying, and might have been told "yeah, well, you can't actually do that" about a few things.
Less evil vilainy then
This is hardly surprising. If/when he's secured the nomination, expect him to relax most of his batshit stances considering he then needs to pander to independents as opposed to the tea party inbreds.
Well if they want to turn things around then they are going to have to find some new, dynamic leadership, where that comes from within that party I have no idea. The best thing for them might be if the Tea Party group would actually just go form their own party. Then the Repubs could do a reset and move away from what they have become. They'll always be more conservative then the Dems, but that doesn't mean they have to be far right wing conservative. They will need to bring themselves back towards the middle ground on oh so many issues.
Whether they can find the leadership who can do this form them or not is the big question.
Not an easy feat. Mittens tried that and got schlonged. The Donald went further right than he did, tenfold.
That space is very narrow though, the Big Dog and his Third Way has essentially occupied the GOP's former position in the ideological spectrum, and some could argue that their move rightward ever since was a direct consequence of that.
An outside chance of a moderate party forming? The moderate Republicans, get some of the centrist Democrats, and we got ourselves a party! (and I wake up from my dream)
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