2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Being incurably optimistic and also probably just quite stupid, I'm still extremely bullish Rubio/Clinton and bearish Trump/Sanders, even after tonight, when Trump creamed the entire R wing yet again.

There was clearly lots of movement in SC in the last week or so as the race reacted to Christie's and Fiorina's dropping out. There was also, I still believe, at least some tactical voting as moderate voters finally realized Jeb was a dud and Kasich nice but ultimately too "who?" to win.

And yet none of those votes went to Trump. He's was, as I recall, basically at 30-35% at SC for ever, the same people who said they were voting him in December are the same ones who did tonight. I still think he has a ceiling and he's almost hit it. Let's assume that anyone voting Jeb in this climate would have gone for Rubio otherwise; that puts him almost level with Trump. If and when Kasich runs out of money, Rubio's in the lead. Cruz, now, Cruz is the million dollar question - if he goes out, where does his support go?

The basic fundamental of the R race hasn't changed - it's still essentially a coordination problem to which the consensus answer is increasingly obvious each day.
 
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naturalized said:
Being incurably optimistic and also probably just quite stupid, I'm still extremely bullish Rubio/Clinton and bearish Trump/Sanders, even after tonight, when Trump creamed the entire R wing yet again.

There was clearly lots of movement in SC in the last week or so as the race reacted to Christie's and Fiorina's dropping out. There was also, I still believe, at least some tactical voting as moderate voters finally realized Jeb was a dud and Kasich nice but ultimately too "who?" to win.

And yet none of those votes went to Trump. He's was, as I recall, basically at 30-35% at SC for ever, the same people who said they were voting him in December are the same ones who did tonight. I still think he has a ceiling and he's almost hit it. Let's assume that anyone voting Jeb in this climate would have gone for Rubio otherwise; that puts him almost level with Trump. If and when Kasich runs out of money, Rubio's in the lead. Cruz, now, Cruz is the million dollar question - if he goes out, where does his support go?

The basic fundamental of the R race hasn't changed - it's still essentially a coordination problem to which the consensus answer is increasingly obvious each day.
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...oo.html#ooid=FmYjc0MTE6N1g_HfDuMyksWM56m1A09j
 
Just looked at the results. Donald Trump is really going to win this thing.
America, what is wrong with you? :lol:
 
Shit, with Jeb leaving, it looks very likely that robotico will win the nomination. Kasich, please stay as long as possible in the race.
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
@Raoul do you know what happened with Cruz all of a sudden? The odds shows its a two man race between Rubio and Trump.

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination
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Not sure where they are getting the 2% for Cruz from. He doesn't have any less chance than Rubio at this stage and is actually leading in his home state of Texas which has a massive amount of delegates up for grabs. As it stands, Rubio has clearly become the establishment choice and will definitely benefit as the likes of Jeb and Kasich leave the race. That said, he needs to win a state at some point, which will be hard since Trump is leading in most of the polls going forward, including in Florida. As long as this remains a 3 horse race, I think Trump will win the nomination. Also, apparently no candidate who has won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has ever not gone on to win the nomination, which suggests Trump would have to implode in order to squander his advantage.
 
At some point 1. Trump 2. Rubio in each primary will become 1. Rubio 2. Trump. When that happens will decide the race. I think it will be awfully close and we should read up on what happens at the convention under different scenarios. @Raoul any ideas what can happen with tight races?
 
Raoul said:
Not sure where they are getting the 2% for Cruz from. He doesn't have any less chance than Rubio at this stage and is actually leading in his home state of Texas which has a massive amount of delegates up for grabs. As it stands, Rubio has clearly become the establishment choice and will definitely benefit as the likes of Jeb and Kasich leave the race. That said, he needs to win a state at some point, which will be hard since Trump is leading in most of the polls going forward, including in Florida. As long as this remains a 3 horse race, I think Trump will win the nomination. Also, apparently no candidate who has won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has ever not gone on to win the nomination, which suggests Trump would have to implode in order to squander his advantage.
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Presumably most of the bush money will now shift to Rubio and there will be big advertising campaigns as a final blitz for super tuesday in the hope of winning at least one state
If he can't do that... Or at least come a very close second then at some point soon the party will have to embrace the inevitable and coalesce around Trump (in the hope of at least getting a vp and some policy they feel comfortable with... Before he appoints Palin or ivanka as his running mate)
 
senorgregster said:
At some point 1. Trump 2. Rubio in each primary will become 1. Rubio 2. Trump. When that happens will decide the race. I think it will be awfully close and we should read up on what happens at the convention under different scenarios. @Raoul any ideas what can happen with tight races?
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I don't see it happening for the simple reason that Cruz is in the race. As long as he is, he and Rubio will continue to hedge each others numbers, which will leave Trump to run away with things.
 
Raoul said:
I don't see it happening for the simple reason that Cruz is in the race. As long as he is, he and Rubio will continue to hedge each others numbers, which will leave Trump to run away with things.
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Yep, spot on IMO
 
Raoul said:
I don't see it happening for the simple reason that Cruz is in the race. As long as he is, he and Rubio will continue to hedge each others numbers, which will leave Trump to run away with things.
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I was thinking all 3 will end up with about 1/3 of the votes in each primary. Trump keeps his, Rubio gains majority of kasich and bush, Cruz gets majority of Carson.
 
Raoul said:
I don't see it happening for the simple reason that Cruz is in the race. As long as he is, he and Rubio will continue to hedge each others numbers, which will leave Trump to run away with things.
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That assumes there is not a ceiling on Cruz support as well. I don't think the moderates in Republican party will flock to him, which means majority of Kasich's and Bush's backers should end up linking behind Rubio instead. Cruz seems much more likely to pick up Carson's left overs. But even then if Trump does not pick up a sizable chunk of new voters due to shrinking field, Rubio could pull ahead, be it may only by a couple of points.
 
senorgregster said:
I was thinking all 3 will end up with about 1/3 of the votes in each primary. Trump keeps his, Rubio gains majority of kasich and bush, Cruz gets majority of Carson.
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The flaw in that logic is that Trump will also get a good number of votes from people who drop out and will get yet more as it looks more and more like he will get the nomination. Unless there's a seismic shift where Trump implodes, Cruz and Rubio will continue to cancel eachother out in terms of the non-Trump vote, which will allow him to win.
 
Rubio's a more awkward candidate than Romney, which says a lot. He's actually quite weak as a candidate, far weaker than I was expecting.
 
Trump is polling at 33% in most places and his support is pretty loyal.

Once the others drop out he will gain some of their supporters. It's not like 100% will be going to Cruz and Rubio. Conservatively that will give him at least 36% which should be enough to eek out a win in most states and even if he doesn't he will pick up a lot of delegates.

The only scenario that is bad for him is if Cruz drops out early and Rubio gets a 1 on 1 shot at Trump. That doesn't seem like it will happen as Cruz hates the establishment as much as they hate him.
 
Raoul said:
The flaw in that logic is that Trump will also get a good number of votes from people who drop out and will get yet more as it looks more and more like he will get the nomination. Unless there's a seismic shift where Trump implodes, Cruz and Rubio will continue to cancel eachother out in terms of the non-Trump vote, which will allow him to win.
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I've somewhat factored that in. For instance, last night Rubio+Bush+Kasich = 23+8+8 = 39. Cruz seems to have the hardest path as he and Carson haven't been getting big numbers in States where they should.

So what happens if after all primaries we end with something like:
Trump 40% delegates
Rubio 35%
Cruz 25%

Is it a done deal? Does a single candidate have to surpass 50%?
 
Ubik said:
Rubio's a more awkward candidate than Romney, which says a lot. He's actually quite weak as a candidate, far weaker than I was expecting.
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I'm eagerly awaiting to see what happens if Trump attacks him at a debate. So far it hasnt happened but I'm sure Trump now sees him as the biggest threat and will throw a few punches.

I bet he squirms.
 
Ole's_toe_poke said:
I'm eagerly awaiting to see what happens if Trump attacks him at a debate. So far it hasnt happened but I'm sure Trump now sees him as the biggest threat and will throw a few punches.

I bet he squirms.
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"Serial loser, he even celebrates it, so sad."
 
senorgregster said:
I've somewhat factored that in. For instance, last night Rubio+Bush+Kasich = 23+8+8 = 39. Cruz seems to have the hardest path as he and Carson haven't been getting big numbers in States where they should.

So what happens if after all primaries we end with something like:
Trump 40% delegates
Rubio 35%
Cruz 25%

Is it a done deal? Does a single candidate have to surpass 50%?
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You can track the delegate count here - Trump currently has more than all other candidates combined and needs to reach 1237. Its possible he wont get there if all three candidates stay in the race until June. Conversely, he may get there if one of Cruz or Rubio drop out before that, or if one of them begin to fade.

That said, Trump has won both NH and SC and no Republican nominee ever has won both and not won the nomination. His momentum is palpable and will only grow as the perception that he will win grows.
 
Raoul said:
You can track the delegate count here - Trump currently has more than all other candidates combined and needs to reach 1237. Its possible he wont get there if all three candidates stay in the race until June. Conversely, he may get there if one of Cruz or Rubio drop out before that, or if one of them begin to fade.

That said, Trump has won both NH and SC and no Republican nominee ever has won both and not won the nomination. His momentum is palpable and will only grow as the perception that he will win grows.
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And if he doesn't get there? Backroom deals? I recollect a story saying the term brokered convention is bs. But what else could happen?
 
senorgregster said:
And if he doesn't get there? Backroom deals? I recollect a story saying the term brokered convention is bs. But what else could happen?
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A brokered convention would be plausible, especially since it may be the only way the establishment could stop Trump. That said, it would probably break the GOP as most Trump supporters would feel cheated and probably not vote in the Gen.
 
Ole's_toe_poke said:
There we go. His dad was a bartender and his mom was a maid. :lol:
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Funny how he never gets to the part about his brother in law (sister´s husband) who was one of the biggest drug traffickers in Miami in the 80s who apparently helped out the Rubio family quite a bit and when he was jailed Marco used his political influence to get him a reduced sentence and a real estate licence.

Us Colombians know all about Marco´s brother in law.
 
Still think that Rubio is favorite. Kasich needs to drop fast in order to raise Rubio chances though, and I think that will happen after Nevada.

While not all Bush/Kasich votes will go to Rubio, I think it is safe to say that the majority of them will go to him, which will give him around the same votes as Trump. Carson's votes will be divided between Trump and Cruz IMO, which would give Trump a slight edge ahead of Rubio, with Cruz way below them.

The question is, when will Cruz drop? If he does a Ron Paul, then that would likely give the nomination to Trump, but if he drops out, it is game over for Trump.
 
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