2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-black-voters_us_56ba797fe4b08ffac12328f0

Here's Why Black People Should Think Twice Before Voting For Hillary Clinton


What a lot of black voters aren’t aware of, however, is how the 1994 Violent Crime and Law Enforcement Act of his presidency helped mass incarceration become more efficient with the “three strikes” implementation, a provision that imposed life sentences on anyone convicted of a violent felony after two or more priors. Former President Clinton also signed into law the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act, which gutted welfare. He repealed the Glass-Steagall Act in 1996 -- a Depression-era banking law that kept different kinds of banking institutions separate -- which, arguably, led to the 2008 housing crisis and disproportionately affected black homeowners.

That's all well and good but this is Hillary. I don't agree with lumping everything Bill did onto her. She's her own person.
 
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-black-voters_us_56ba797fe4b08ffac12328f0

Here's Why Black People Should Think Twice Before Voting For Hillary Clinton


What a lot of black voters aren’t aware of, however, is how the 1994 Violent Crime and Law Enforcement Act of his presidency helped mass incarceration become more efficient with the “three strikes” implementation, a provision that imposed life sentences on anyone convicted of a violent felony after two or more priors. Former President Clinton also signed into law the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act, which gutted welfare. He repealed the Glass-Steagall Act in 1996 -- a Depression-era banking law that kept different kinds of banking institutions separate -- which, arguably, led to the 2008 housing crisis and disproportionately affected black homeowners.

Its not novel to consider tougher law enforcement laws as "black issue", but since it was presented here I must say what I usually think: it sure does help make a racist argument against african-americans, since an underlying premise to make it a "black issue" is that african-americans will commit more crimes. I think one can argue the policies, but would be better off treating it as an issue for society as a whole and not more so for any particular group.
 
Its not novel to consider tougher law enforcement laws as "black issue", but since it was presented here I must say what I usually think: it sure does help make a racist argument against african-americans, since an underlying premise to make it a "black issue" is that african-americans will commit more crimes. I think one can argue the policies, but would be better off treating it as an issue for society as a whole and not more so for any particular group.

the problem is blacks are more affected by law enforcement issues. they are poorer, not a level playing field. Think that is the issue. and Clinton has admitted it was a mistake.
 
Hillary's problem is that "slow and steady change" doesnt sell as well as "revolution".

She's been too cautious so far in an attempt to not move too much to the left.
 
Hillary's problem is that "slow and steady change" doesnt sell as well as "revolution".

She's been too cautious so far in an attempt to not move too much to the left.

If she does go to the left, her eventual pivot back to the center in the general election will see her getting attacked for being a flip-flopper. She already has a reputation for this and will do anything not to exacerbate the situation.
 
Why do black voters support Hilary? She's part of the establishment, whereas Sanders has come out supporting the big government and social security policies that support black people. Seems like they would be voting against their own interests.
 
Why do black voters support Hilary? She's part of the establishment, whereas Sanders has come out supporting the big government and social security policies that support black people. Seems like they would be voting against their own interests.

The Clintons have always had strong support from the African-American community. There's a reason why Bill was jokingly referred to as America's first black President.
 
All the states have primaries or caucuses. Primaries are organized by government (like main elections), while caucuses are organized by each party.

The rules vary from state to state, in some states, winner takes all delegates, in some other states, they get delegates proportionally based on the number of votes. Add the superdelegate votes (generally they are current (both parties) and ex (only Democratic party) presidents, senators, members of the house of representatives, and I am not sure but maybe also secretaries) and each party nominates a candidate to represent the party in the election.
All the states do something plus some of the U.S. territories
Thanks for explaining but could I just ask something else....why do they have these "delegates" as opposed to just adding up the votes and who are these "delegates" and how do you become one?
 
Thanks for explaining but could I just ask something else....why do they have these "delegates" as opposed to just adding up the votes and who are these "delegates" and how do you become one?

Delegates are people who can speak for the party at national convention. Different states have their total # delegates allocated and the person who has the most delegates wins the nomination for the party.
 
Not really. Did he pass much legislation that was specific to blacks? I'm not aware of any but my knowledge is probably lacking on him.

I agree that he gave some fecks though.

Nixon wasn't all that bad, no? Southern strategy and campaign rhetorics aside.
 
You could say Sanders won by 22 points. But what is also true is NH, the state that gave her a lifline in 2008 rejected her in such a brutal manner.

Only the old and rich voted for her more than for Sanders.

She has no message. No authenticity.
All voters can see is, she wants to be President.


She will not be the nominee imo. The only reason she will be difficult to overcome is because the party machinery is with her. But the voters can see this and will be even more eager to level the playing field, because they are in the same position where the super rich game the system in their own favour.

What happened last night was equivalent to the Storming of the Bastile. This Political Revolution started with the Storming of Wall Street.

I think you are right about her lack of message and all she wants is to be President.

By trying to out maneuver Sanders on the left and appear more progressive than him, the real progressives consider her a phoney. Now she is heading to South Carolina and will appear to be blacker than Obama. Clinton expects the African American community to come out on mass like they did for Obama and I am not sure that will be the case.

Still think she has the inside track on the nomination though. Sanders had all the advantages in Iowa and New Hampshire, now they are moving into States where the demographics favour Clinton. Add in Clinton's other advantages in money, organization and super delegates and she will be hard to beat.
 
I can see where cynics are coming from. Obama was supposed to be the candidate who would shake up the Washington establishment and bring about much needed 'change' just like Bernie is going to bring about a 'revolution' now.

With Obama it is not just a case of being blocked by an obstructionist congress. For starters, he has been as close to wall street as any establishment candidate could be. He did actually appoint ex Wall Street honchos to important positions in Govt, something people are wary of Hillary doing as well. Warren is also at pains to point at every time she gets a chance, that his administration showed a distinct lack of will to hold any one accountable for that crash when in previous decades people had been prosecuted for fraud for similar wrong doings. It has been said that there were existing laws and provisions under which bankers should have been investigated under but nothing was done.

Then the much lauded Health care reform. I work for a company whose 90% of revenue is driven by ACA related exchanges, so I know first hand that it has actually helped a number of people in US. But it has also benefited the health insurance companies. The original bill was watered down by a Democratic congress at the behest of their lobby only, so as to make it acceptable to them.

While he has attempted to shut down Guantanamo, he has increased the drone attacks and expanded surveillance program under NSA. His administration has gone after whistle-blowers even harder than previous ones. Even on social issue like gay marriage, Obama was way behind the curve ball, only coming out in support when it was politically convenient to do so.
 
I think you are right about her lack of message and all she wants is to be President.

By trying to out maneuver Sanders on the left and appear more progressive than him, the real progressives consider her a phoney. Now she is heading to South Carolina and will appear to be blacker than Obama. Clinton expects the African American community to come out on mass like they did for Obama and I am not sure that will be the case.

Still think she has the inside track on the nomination though. Sanders had all the advantages in Iowa and New Hampshire, now they are moving into States where the demographics favour Clinton. Add in Clinton's other advantages in money, organization and super delegates and she will be hard to beat.
Hillary is still the clear favourites, everyone expected Sanders to win NH and then try to make a story about it when he did win.
 
If Sanders won by 20+% and Hillary still won more delegates then she is already the democratic nominee

It's just a procession at this point
 
I can see where cynics are coming from. Obama was supposed to be the candidate who would shake up the Washington establishment and bring about much needed 'change' just like Bernie is going to bring about a 'revolution' now.

With Obama it is not just a case of being blocked by an obstructionist congress. For starters, he has been as close to wall street as any establishment candidate could be. He did actually appoint ex Wall Street honchos to important positions in Govt, something people are wary of Hillary doing as well. Warren is also at pains to point at every time she gets a chance, that his administration showed a distinct lack of will to hold any one accountable for that crash when in previous decades people had been prosecuted for fraud for similar wrong doings. It has been said that there were existing laws and provisions under which bankers should have been investigated under but nothing was done.

Then the much lauded Health care reform. I work for a company whose 90% of revenue is driven by ACA related exchanges, so I know first hand that it has actually helped a number of people in US. But it has also benefited the health insurance companies. The original bill was watered down by a Democratic congress at the behest of their lobby only, so as to make it acceptable to them.

While he has attempted to shut down Guantanamo, he has increased the drone attacks and expanded surveillance program under NSA. His administration has gone after whistle-blowers even harder than previous ones. Even on social issue like gay marriage, Obama was way behind the curve ball, only coming out in support when it was politically convenient to do so.


When Joe Kennedy was made chair of the SEC I think Roosevelt said something like it takes a thief to catch a thief. There wouldn't be much point putting in some idealist who doesn't know how The Street works.
 
Not at all, I know they cant stand her and she has a history. But, you are underestimating how obstructionist the Republicans will be with a 'socialist' president.

Obama did almost nothing to change the status quo and look what he faced, Bernie would face a million times worse.

Anyways...this conversation is moot, Hillary will get the nomination.

Won't Sanders being president encourage democrat base to bother more with lower level elections though versus Hillary who not many seem excited about though?
 
When Joe Kennedy was made chair of the SEC I think Roosevelt said something like it takes a thief to catch a thief. There wouldn't be much point putting in some idealist who doesn't know how The Street works.

Eric Holder went from Covington & Burling to "attorney general" back to Covington & Burling. Covington & Burling has all the big banks as their clients. They kept an corner office for him. Do you really think that this is not a problem?
 
Seeing Rubio is doing one on ones and now owning up to not doing well and dropping the ball at the debate. Should have gone with this line from the get go rather than the over defiant stuff. Now he really needs a big performance next debate.
 
Seeing Rubio is doing one on ones and now owning up to not doing well and dropping the ball at the debate. Should have gone with this line from the get go rather than the over defiant stuff. Now he really needs a big performance next debate.

Good candidates improve and grow as the campaign goes on. Rubio stumbled, but it is a long campaign, let's see if he can recover and gain something from his one bad night. If he can't he is done, but if he learns from it and grows as a candidate, it will make him stronger down the stretch.
 
Now, the polls underestimated Sanders by a pretty substantial margin in both states (5-6% on average).
http://i.imgur.com/CPwEMiX.jpg

That can be interpreted in 2 ways, I guess. Either they are systemically undersampling/underweighing the demographics that go for Sanders, or the polls are in general off this year. No other candidate shows a trend that holds for both states, so the suggestion isn't impossible.

I wonder what this means for the general election polls too. Is Hillary even further behind (are polls oversampling Dems)? Will Trump do better than suggested (are they undersampling independents - this is what I think is happening)? Or is Sanders going to be the main beneficiary; is he even better placed to win the general (is it the youth vote that isn't being counted)?
 
Imagine if the choices were a 74 year old or a lunatic.

It could happen.... :wenger:
 
Was referring to the Presidency (where dragging candidates into positions on immigration and social issues ends up poisoning the candidate). The TPers greatest success in congress is essentially to make intransigence the norm, and create a civil war within the party. And shutting down the government (good ol' Ted).

No, their greatest success is controlling 31 state governemnts, and affecting paractical issues for their benefactors (fracking, etc.)

For example, I now live in NC. The governor was a director in an energy firm. The firm was recently ound to have poisoned many groundwater sources. The federal govt did what it could in terms of a fine, but the state signed a deal which limited the compensation to lower 6 figures and no liability for any later spills. The NC state govt is now suing environmental groups who were trying to get a better settlement. The state education budget has been reduced quite drastically, and the state has fallen behind on most educational indicators. The last remaining Dem in office recently lost her senate seat. The governor is facing a challenge...from his legislature, for not signing some of the more right-wing bills they have passed.
They are, to use Trump's favourite word, winning. If I was a donor and my economic interests were represented by the tea party, I would have no reason to reverse course on this strategy which loses the presidency, blocks the federal govt, and controls practicalities on the ground.
 
No, their greatest success is controlling 31 state governemnts, and affecting paractical issues for their benefactors (fracking, etc.)

For example, I now live in NC. The governor was a director in an energy firm. The firm was recently ound to have poisoned many groundwater sources. The federal govt did what it could in terms of a fine, but the state signed a deal which limited the compensation to lower 6 figures and no liability for any later spills. The NC state govt is now suing environmental groups who were trying to get a better settlement. The state education budget has been reduced quite drastically, and the state has fallen behind on most educational indicators. The last remaining Dem in office recently lost her senate seat. The governor is facing a challenge...from his legislature, for not signing some of the more right-wing bills they have passed.
They are, to use Trump's favourite word, winning. If I was a donor and my economic interests were represented by the tea party, I would have no reason to reverse course on this strategy which loses the presidency, blocks the federal govt, and controls practicalities on the ground.

:nod:

This is not just donors, lots of conservative groups and think tanks are also leaning this way....fine the demographics might be against us in General Elections, but so what? If we control things at ground level - a democratic president will be largely ineffective.
 
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