2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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A blowout victory like tonight matters. RD is right. Americans love winners, and also underdogs. Bernie is both. Hillary will most likely still win Nevada, SC and Super Tuesday, but she'll have a bad case of deja vu if Bernie manages to leech off more delegates than she can spare.

She needs to rely on Obama's folks more and take control of her campaign. They've been inept in forging a clear, uplifting message to the electorate.
Not convinced of that one. I'm sure they'd like to think so but...
 
A blowout victory like tonight matters. RD is right. Americans love winners, and also underdogs. Bernie is both. Hillary will most likely still win Nevada, SC and Super Tuesday, but she'll have a bad case of deja vu if Bernie manages to leech off more delegates than she can spare.

She needs to rely on Obama's folks more and take control of her campaign. They've been inept in forging a clear, uplifting message to the electorate.

She may well end up being the nominee. If she ends up embracing a good portion of his message, she will win in a landslide.

She needs to move towards him...sincerely and turn her back on money politics...if she can.

This will be a very interesting election year. I'm going to send some money to Bernie now :)
 
Bernie's got a margin of 21.9 per cent right now... It just keeps growing. Hope it lasts *fingers crossed*
 
Sanders in his speech just now basically laid out why I would never support him, nor will many more once his plans come under the gun. Robbing Peter to pay Paul by a "tax on Wall Street speculation" is the dumbest thing I've heard to date. He seems devoid of the idea that a large number of Americans are involved int stock market every day, either as retail traders or as part of mutual or pension funds. His class warfare ideas about Wall Street are fecking disturbing, especially since Wall Street itself barely even exists anymore.
 
Its not so big when you consider he's from the state next door. This was always going to be his strong state. It won't transfer to the south where Hillary is thrashing him.

He pointed out that he started out with name recognition (forget polling numbers) far far lower than hers, even in NH.
Politico did a story on this, every NH reporter said that looking at Bernie as a popular figure because he's a neighbour is not true.
 
I'm sure there were lots who said that the progressives of last century couldn't possibly achieve their aims....I'd like to give Bernie a crack at it too.
 
The GOP is really fecked tonight, as if Trump's win wasn't enough, Cruz also looks like he's doing better than expected, while the 2nd place has zero appeal moving forward. Their golden boy is 5th, 5th!

If the Dems don't hurt each other too badly, they can phone it in for the GE.
 
Sanders in his speech just now basically laid out why I would never support him, nor will many more once his plans come under the gun. Robbing Peter to pay Paul by a "tax on Wall Street speculation" is the dumbest thing I've heard to date. He seems devoid of the idea that a large number of Americans are involved int stock market every day, either as retail traders or as part of mutual or pension funds. His class warfare ideas about Wall Street are fecking disturbing, especially since Wall Street itself barely even exists anymore.


Raoul. This is already happeneing. Except it is reverse Robin Hood.
 
He pointed out that he started out with name recognition (forget polling numbers) far far lower than hers, even in NH.
Politico did a story on this, every NH reporter said that looking at Bernie as a popular figure because he's a neighbour is not true.

Well he is up against a very popular name; probably the biggest in Dem politics over the past quarter century, so that's not very surprising. He's a well meaning guy who will never get elected, and even if he does, all of his policies will be dead in the water from day one. The GOP will have a field day.
 
Interesting, 538 say that among Dems alone, it's tied 49-49.
 
Trump... what a fecking tool.

"We're going to do something great, and we're going to do it really fast, and everything's going to be awesome!"

That's not even an unfair paraphrase. And every place he goes, he loves the people, and it's so beautiful. I just picture him in Mordor, speaking to a crowd of Orcs, spouting the same shit.
 
Shows how daft the electorate are this year.

BTW, its interesting that Jeb has done well after finally going Trump on Trump. Being logical, dignified, and gentlemanly is obviously a sign of weakness for the GOP base, whereas being loud and aggressive is perceived as strength.
 
Trump... what a fecking tool.

"We're going to do something great, and we're going to do it really fast, and everything's going to be awesome!"

That's not even an unfair paraphrase. And every place he goes, he loves the people, and it's so beautiful. I just picture him in Mordor, speaking to a crowd of Orcs, spouting the same shit.

It's Idiocracy.
 
I've been beating on this drum for eons now. He wins decisively among independents. She is super-solid among the base.
Doesn't bode well for him in New York and Florida.
 
Doesn't bode well for him in New York and Florida.

Indeed. But it is a part of the electability argument. Specifically, it's a huge dent in her electability argument. Her terrible numbers, both polling and favourables, among independents, can't win a general.
 
Is that Nate thingys website? Is he still credible? Last I saw of him was a remarkably bad attempt at predicting the UK general election.
He just analyses the polls, the polls turned out to be fundamentally flawed during that run, they'll probable be corrected by the next election. Takes very little margin of error to get it wrong with our system.
 
Is that Nate thingys website? Is he still credible? Last I saw of him was a remarkably bad attempt at predicting the UK general election.
Yeah, his system is primarily based on polling and since ours went to bollocks at the election, he couldn't really do much there. Either way, in this instance he's just reporting published figures I believe.
 
Indeed. But it is a part of the electability argument. Specifically, it's a huge dent in her electability argument. Her terrible numbers, both polling and favourables, among independents, can't win a general.
You're assuming the independents voting in these primaries (or caring at all) are representative of general election independents, and I'm not sure that's a sound assumption.
 
You're assuming the independents voting in these primaries (or caring at all) are representative of general election independents, and I'm not sure that's a sound assumption.

The reason he does better than her in head-to-heads vs the Repubs is because of her terrible performance among independents not because she is getting less Dem vote (she in fact gets 1-2% more of the base)
 
The reason he does better than her in head-to-heads vs the Repubs is because of her terrible performance among independents not because she is getting less Dem vote (she in fact gets 1-2% more of the base)
Presumably due to that fact that the younger vote is largely 'independent' and heavily Sanders.
 
The reason he does better than her in head-to-heads vs the Repubs is because of her terrible performance among independents not because she is getting less Dem vote (she in fact gets 1-2% more of the base)
And those are the polls we're continually told are garbage for the time being. Ben Carson was winning them not so long ago.
 
The reason he does better than her in head-to-heads vs the Repubs is because of her terrible performance among independents not because she is getting less Dem vote (she in fact gets 1-2% more of the base)

I feel it's more of a popularity contest than actual representative data at this point. It's very different answering pollsters than actually going to the voting booth and, faced with the choice of Hillary vs Trump/Cruz, to choose the latter after a long campaign has exposed the ideas and policies of both sides to public scrutiny.

Polls are only tools, even the best of them fail eventually.
 
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