The general outlines of the transfer strategy is seemingly taking shape. If a new owner will come in and want to make a splash -- which it seems like our management are planning on -- I could see the logic behind a transfer window like this:
SELLING -- creating space to buy
Players sold because they are not a fit
Dean Henderson -- 25m //No explanation needed. I am a bit doubtful about how much we will get for him. Someone leaked a report that Nottingham was willing to pay 30m. Wasn't Forrest that leaked that. Why would we leak it? Think we just as well could get 10-15m. But I wouldn't rule out 25m either.
Scott McTominay --
20m //There will certainly be interest in McTominay. For teams to go out and spend more than 20m, they will want to get someone that can be a core player. Sure there are exceptions, but a team like WH pays 22m for a Thilo Kehrer from PSG, those prices seldomly lands at 35-40m.
Harry Maguire -- 15m //Regardless of what has been reported, I can't see us getting that much for Maguire. He is overpaid by -- at least -- 5m per year for 3 more seasons, at 200k a week. That is 15m. Do you get 30m for a Maguire on a fair contract? If so, you get 15m on the contract he is on now. In addition -- Harry Maguire is in a position to pick the club he is going to. Sure there could be a couple of attractive teams for him that are interested in him. But more likely than not, Harry will let the club know that if he is going, its to "team X". That team won't chomp at the bits in any negotiations. They will be like, ah, ok, we can loan him if you pay his salary. We "should" of course be able to get a fee for him, but all I am saying is that there are questionmarks and we won't be in a good negotiations position.
This opens up a lot of FFP space for the transfer window, i.e. improves our earnings with almost 63m for the period we will be judged for after this summer. We today has about 100m to spend in relation to the FFP, and with these sales
we could spend up towards 250-300m (counting on three players at 100m per and 200k a week). But from my point of view, that will not be enough. 140m would go to Mount and Rice. In addition, we need at a minimum a GK, a CB and 2 strikers.
How much can be saved on the dead wood?
So how about
Telles and
Bailly?
Martial?
DVB?
DVB -- Loan //First of all, I don't think we can sell Donny this summer. He has -- three -- years left on his contract. That is a 15m commitment. With his recent injury history, its buyer beware. I am sure someone will take a loan with a mandatory option to buy if Donny for example plays the majority of the games, and those conditions could be decent. But its not time to sell
Telles, Bailly and Martial --
0
If we could sell these guys for a fiver each, we would save 22.4m in accordance with the below. I don't think we can do that. There will be loans, selling team's selling contribution etc. But I think we could save costs of 10m next season be getting rid of them. This wouldn't be enough either.
Players sold to raise cash
Hence, I think we need to sell players, just to raise cash. Remember that selling a player doesn't increase our FFP room on a dollar for dollar basis. Lets look at Victor Lindelöf for example.
Today, he impacts our finance in the following way. Having renewed his contract during its term, app. 3.1m of his signing from Benfica remains on our balance sheet for one more year. In addition, his salary is 6m per. Lindelof is just 28 y/o, and should have his best 4-5 years in front of him. We should be able to get about 25-30m for him. So if we sell him for 25m, we won't pay his salary of 6,2m, we won't amortize his contact with 3.1m per season, and the net result on his sale would be 25m - 3.1m = 21.9m. In total, this improves our earnings for next season with 31.24m. I.e. enough to buy a player for 100m and giving him a 5 year contract at 200k a week.
The players who can come into question here are from my point of view:
Sancho,
Fred (could perhaps fit in above),
AWB,
Lindelöf and
Dalot.
Why? I think it comes down to this.
-Sancho has no place on the team. He was good against Chelsea -- but that was the most open game of the Premier League season -- de facto (i.e. highest xG forr a game). ETH will 100% prefer Antony at RW, always. At LW, we have Rash and Garncho. He is definitely weak for a central midfielder, even in Bruno's role. And he is massively expensive at 350k a week and with yearly amortizations of 17m (i.e. he costs more than 35m per season). Should he get another season? Sure, that argument can be made. Not saying that he will be sold, people knowing more than me seems to expect that he is staying.
-Fred? Who is buying him? Like sure, all of a sudden a PSG will want him. Fred is super well liked, very experienced, team loyal. But...
-Lindelof? He and Varane are about the same age. Both will fall off a cliff at about the same time in 4-5 years time. Lindelof isn't a huge contributor when Varane is out. Lindelof might want to play more than he will being behind Varane. At the same time, he will play quite much behind Varane. He has been "good enough" for a No 3-4 CB. So you never know. But I think very "attractive" clubs would come knocking on the door for him. He could probably pick between teams like Inter Milan, Athletico Madrid. Those leagues aren't as tough as the PL. I would bet on him staying, the comment about looking forward to CL football at OT didn't sound like someone who is halfway out the door.
-
AWB? In a way, it seems like the lazy option. But with that said -- I don't think ETH is perfectly satisfied with his RBs. From my viewpoint, AWB lacks a lot of what ETH want in a footballer in that role, but he got so much else in his game that makes up for much of it. I've noticed that ETH generally have used
Dalot against better teams and AWB against worse teams -- which could seem a bit contra intuitive, but I think it comes from Dalot being a better passer and ETH hence option for him for him because he knows that there will be a huge challenge in the possession game, while AWB will dominate wingers with lesser physical capabilities. Dalot on the other hand has the raw outlines of everything ETH wants in a wing back. He can defend. He isn't bad in the air. He can shift sides of the play. He is good when he inverts into the middle of the pitch. Dalot could definitely have the touch necessary to operate at CM at a higher level. He is calm and collected and can have a strategic approach to the game. But the big downside with Dalot -- that isn't talked about all that much -- is that the game is a bit fast for his thought process at times. If we play a better team, it is very important that you are able to early step up and take control of the game. You must chest up and play yourself out of the initial pressure, set the tone. Classic Dalot is to start with 3 brain farts the first 5 minutes.
AWB has clearly overtaken Dalot lately. Does Dalot want to play second fiddle to AWB? He only has a year left on his contract. What are his contract demands? Dalot is a regular of the Portuguese national team. He has proven that he can play for both AC Milan and Manchester United. Just theoretically, if he opts to leave this summer, he wouldn't take three steps down the latter in terms of attractiveness of the club he plays for. Barca is in trouble financially and can surely not sign him, but if they didn't have their hands tied behind their backs, I think they definitely would have considered it. If we sell Dalot, I think he goes and plays for a top 10-15 club in the world. On the other hand, perhaps AWB want to get back to London. You never know.
This is how we are impacted financially if we sell either:
Fred alone isn't enough. I think we need to sell one of Sancho, AWB, Lindelof and Dalot -- and even if it seems far fetched, I would actually bet on one of them being sold. Sancho's profit for our licensing after next season isn't major, but the year after that he gives us a 35m boost which is massive. Who would it be? I mean, its anyone's guess. I would perhaps rank them in order of likelihood of getting sold in the following order, but its just guesswork: Sancho, Dalot, AWB and Lindelof. I.e., I know many are very certain of Sancho staying another year, but I am not so sure. Its hard to guess, but I do think one of them is getting sold.
PLAYERS IN
What is the budget?
If we make the above sales (say that one of AWB/Dalot goes), we have a budget of
app. 400m (we could spend about 500m and pass the 24' licensing, but then we would probably get in trouble in the 25' licensing). Definitely enough for a new owner to make somewhat of a big splash on the transfer market and reshape the squad for ETH.
What to make of Mason Mount and Declan Rice?
This is not two signings I would have argued for two weeks ago, but thinking it true, I do think that the reports make sense and I am not against it. First of all, going forward, we can basically afford a squad consisting of (spread over time) (a) 2 signings of 150m players, (b) 7 signings of 100m players, (c) 4 signings of 75m players, (d) 4 signings of 50m players, (e) 1 signing of a 15m player and (f) 4 academy players or free signings, as set out below. That gives us a squad cost of 504m, which is 70% of 720, which is what our revenue should be in a couple of years time (see below the breakdown of how 504m can be diveded over 22 players).
These guys are 24 y/o. In 4 years time, they will be in their absolute prime, and cost wise -- Mason Mount will be one of the cheaper players in the squad (top 13-16 perhaps) and Rice will be just around 10-12. Can we expect them to deliver at that level? Honestly, I think this makes them fairly low risks signings.
I see
Declan Rice as someone who attribute wise tics a lot of boxes, but I am scared about the length of the transition period he will need to adopt to ETH football. But at the same time, he doesn't have to step in and fill Casemiro's shoes from day 1. He can play next to Casemiro against the top teams, and definitely help really well if we have to revert to playing more of a counter attack/defensive style even if that is not what we want. And he can also relief Casemiro against a little less capable teams (I see Bruno stepping down in the build up phase while Rice holds the fort physically). I also love that Rice is as strong in the air as he is -- because it enables us to carry CBs that are good on the ball without becoming too weak on set pieces.
Mason Mount is a quality player, that I don't think "improves" us in any significant way. Hence, two weeks ago I would have said never in a life time if asked if we should go for him. But when you break it down, I think that you also can look at it from this perspective. Against 75% of our opponents, Mason Mount is a contributing factor. His quality is higher than the competition's, against the non top 6 teams, and he will contribute with his hard work for sure. Against 25% of the opponents, I think we need more. But at £55m per, you know what, I take that. In other words, if we get Mount to play the minutes Sabitzer and Donny has played for us this year and some of McT and Fred's minutes -- he is a big upgrade, at an OK cost, that should have 7-8 years left in him.
And in addition, I do think that Mount has some potential. He could take another step. The kid is not afraid of hard work, and that is what it takes. Chelsea has not done him right, love the revenge factor. I like it.
I am counting on that these two will cost us
app. 135m. 265m left.
What striker would I deem to be a success signing?
Assuming that Kane is not an option (not against me), I don't think we can get
Victor Oshimen from Napoli. They can sell him next season just as well. They will want to keep the gang together, of course. If Oshimen goes, and KMJ goes, why should Kvaradonna stay? KMJ might not be stopped, but Napoli controls the rest. And if they tell Oshimen that he can moan all he wants, they will keep him one more year and then sell him next summer -- what is he going to do? Sit out the rest of the season? Its in Napoli's hands. If I was the boss of Napoli, I would play hard ball. If they just lose KMJ, they should win the Serie A again pretty comfortably and should challenge for the CL next season, at least go fairly deep.
That basically leaves Ramos, Kolo Muani, Vlahovic and a long shot in Sesko (who probably isn't for sale). I know that we are supposed to be focusing on Ramos -- and that is perfectly possible. But if I was betting on this -- I would put my money on
Randal Kolo Muani.
Why? I would love to get
Goncalo Ramos too. But he is just 21 y/o, and nobody can be 100% that he is ready for the PL. The kid has never faced any adversity in his career. He is a bit of a finesse striker (who does get involved physically for sure, but...). If things aren't going his way -- is he the type who fights through it? He does have quality, definitely. Can finish with both feet, good in the air, great first touch. And I wouldn't rule out that a scout could see that he should be a top priority because he has potential to not only become a high quality European striker, but like a Benzema type of performer who can carry a top European team. But I don't quite see that.
Randal Kolo Muani does however got that pure work horse side to his game. He is a great fit for ETH's style. He is really good on the press. He will come deep to get the ball. He is very strong individually, and defenders -- at any level -- have to be very focused and work really hard because if you just give him a little bit of space he will blow past you and go for the net. He is great on the counter attack, but also good in the air at 6'2. With that said, there are some question marks about his finishing ability, and while his dribbling ability is great -- how good is his first touch really?
Just like Mason Mount and Declan Rice, Randal Kolo Muani is not just the same age as them -- he is just as safe a bet too. It doesn't matter if you play Luton Town at home or Manchester City away -- you won't mind writing RKM name on the sheet with the starting XI. Is RKM someone that brings gives us an edge at the No 9 spot compared to City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Barca, Real, Bayern and co? He also has a bit of potential, but I wouldn't bet on him giving us an edge on a consistent basis over what does teams can put on the pitch at that position.. But with that said -- if he costs 100m -- I think we will get our money's worth. The No 9 position is important, even if RKM isn't going to be the one that leads us to the promise land -- he is a great option to put on with 20 minutes left. He is a great option to fill in for someone who is injured, no matter who the opponent is. He can also play as a LW/inside forward like Rashford. I do not think it is a signing we ever would regret. We do regret the Sancho signing right now, for example. Why? You don't know what you will get. Not a good option to put on in all situations. A bit up and down. Needs a bigger role to thrive. RKM is much more versatile/low maintenance.
100m for Randal Kolo Muani, that leaves us with 165m.
But one striker isn't enough, we need two!?
Definitely, and I can definitely see some logic in going after both RKM and GR. But I don't think we can pull that off. And remember, Benfica has just this season alone sold players for 262m. They don't have to sell Ramos. Its easily worth it for them to keep it around, worst case they get 60m for him instead of 100m, but its a fans owned club who doesn't exist to make a profit. Maybe he can force his way out, but I don't think they will sell him.
Looking at ETH's track record at Ajax, he bought a lot of South American players -- with great great success. Antony, Lisandro Martinez, Edson Alvarez And its a market we are said to want to get into more.
There are many options. We could tap into the striker rental market again, get someone like Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. There are younger options around Europe. We could loan someone with an option to buy, by loaning a player to us, a club put that player in pretty big shopping window. We know that ETH contacted Brian Brobbery just a few months ago.
But one guy that sticks out from my point of view is
Vitor Roque. Him signing with Barca has inofficially been a "done deal" for a long time. They want him, and if Barca comes knocking, why not take it. But Barca can't even resign their own top young players who are out of contract this summer. In addition, Messi has decided to move back there. Reports have Barca being forced to reduce their wage bill with 200m, that is selling 20 players making 200k a week... According to reports, we have reached out to him:
He is just 18 y/o, but has already played 56 games already across the top Brazilian league, the Brazilian Cup and the South American Champions League, scoring 15 goals. He has also played 25 minutes for the mens national team and been a regular and top scorer for their U20 national team.
I don't know if it makes sense to bring in a young Brazilian striker as a back-up No 9 for us. How good is this kid really? How long will he need to adopt to the European game and the Premier League? But even if its not the safest, best, business -- I just think it tics many boxes by being a very -- exciting -- signing. We would all be giddy about signing an 18 y/o Brazilian striker, right? He seems to be a very likable player type, the classic low center of gravity, very technical, exciting, hard working striker. Seems to be a bit slow though, but a good finisher. His price is said to be around 40-50m -- but I would bet that a big chunk of that would be "add-ons". The real cost -- if he never reach any of the milestones -- is probably closer to 20m.
In addition, I think that it is obvious that ETH is wrestling a little bit with the notion of having such an offensive forward type as Rashford at LW. Ideally, he wants his wingers to be able to come deep and get the ball more, exactly like Pep is using Grealish and Bernado Silva. Pep's wingers often comes so deep that they only have 2 or 3 players between them and their own goal in the build up phase. That is a significant key in becoming as dominant in possession as they are, those wingers are very hard to mark and pressure as passing options when they start from a higher point up the pitch and moves back towards the defenders on the ball. Hence, I don't think ETH will mind keep experimenting with Rashford at striker from time to time. Many players starts on the wing and grows into the striker position over time (like Ronaldo). Wouldn't at all be surprised to see Rashford as a striker between say 28 and 32 y/o. So even if we of course must get two strikers -- I am not so sure that our second striker must be able to come in and play against all possible opponents if the top option is injured.
Say 30m from this years budget, 135m left.
If a RB is sold, we need a RB, and that RB would be Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong tics a lot of boxes. Having spent like 8 years in City's academy, he is a "homegrown player" under the PL rules. The kid has a ton of potential. I watched Leverkusen's last game of the Bundesliga earlier today. They got a red card after 10 minutes. Its a ball playing team coached by Xabi Alonso. They kept playing an offensive style of football, and Frimpong was all over the pitch. They lost 3-0, but the shots were actually 12-11 and the possession was even. Frimpong should have had a goal (hit the inside of the post on a break away) and an assist, but the marginals just weren't on their side. They also played with a back 4 for the first time in a while. I think JF fits better with a back 4, he can handle the extra mileage it requires from him, and with an extra passing option up top, it opens up the game more for him.
In terms of having an engine, having top speed, being able to cover a lot of ground, being mobile/agile -- I think Frimpong is as good as it gets more or less. He is just world class. He is back defending as a RB, and when his team has the ball, he is up looking to break an offside trap in the blink of an eye. With these type of players, you can't really go wrong. And its not like Frimpong doesn't seem to have his head screwed on right, he competes hard and is of course an extremely hard worker. He is also very gifted on the ball. I don't think he is like a top 5 RB in the world or anything -- he got a lot left to fine tune so to speak. But he do have that potential. Its kind of like with a Kyle Walker, if you are dominant physically, so much is won.
I think he will be priced accordingly. At times, it has seen like a few million has been added to his price every time we have been mentioned -- but I think its fair for Leverkusen to ask for around 60m. He is that talented.
50m from the budget, 85m left.
Kim Min-Jae
We obviously seem to have a lot of respect for how hard it is to get transfers done -- since we go for players that really are available. KMJ of course fit that bill due to his release clause.
I was first really high on KMJ. Probably not for the best reasons, but just getting a South Korean player is huge for our marketing ability. Long-term, that is not irrelevant for this club. As a dad with three kids between 8-15 y/o in Sweden -- I can attest to how not a single kid in this country idols Manchester United, if they aren't forced to by their dad. Its Liverpool and City, or perhaps Arsenal, and I am sure that is how it is in the rest of the world too. You can't let this decide your transfer strategy -- of course -- but if we get a SK player or a US player, it is a welcomed bonus for sure.
When I've watched him closely over the season -- I do get a little worried. I saw someone call him a South Korean Harry Maguire, and in a way, I definitely get what they mean. Does he make spectacular defensive plays? Yes. No doubt. He is definitely world class at playing a high defense, nobody can dispute that. His passing stats are also fantastic. But if you watch him and expect a ball playing defender who can dictate the tempo for his team -- like Timber and Martinez did for ETH in Ajax -- you have to look long and hard. When playing for Napoli in the CL -- against the top European teams -- he plays a very simple, fast, straight forward passing game. When he plays for Napoli against lesser teams in the Serie A, he expands his register a little, but only to making the odd longer cross switching sides of the possession. And when playing for South Korea, he is almost robotic in the sense that he every time he gets the ball, just hands it over to a midfielder. The World Cup games are available online to watch. I re-watched the game against Portugal. During 90 minutes -- he does not make one single pass or play with the ball, that doesn't consist of just looking up and immediately passing to a midfielder getting open in front of him. Being able to dictate the tempo of the play and unlock a defense is A and O for CBs in ETH's game.
This does genuinely worry me. But if ETH signs off on this signing, I am of course fine with it. If there are any indication that our management might go for a player without ETH's full support, I would be really scared about signing him.
55m from the budget, 30m left.
Back-up GK
If ETH wants to replace DDG this summer, he would have my full support. I don't think he will, I think he will opt to spend the money elsewhere.
But get a good young GK that at least can push DDG, and you never know, all of a sudden a kid like that takes it and runs with it.
15-20m from the budget, 10-15m left.
Academy players
We have been linked to a few kids lately, definitely think that we must keep filling the academy with younger players, in the 5-15m range. Get one or a few kids in with whatever is left after the above. I wouldn't mind if 30-40m was spent on kids with the aim of them contributing 3-4 years down the line.
LINE-UP
This leaves us with something like this.
Starting XI
------------------------------Kolo Muani------------------------------
Rashford---------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------Bruno------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------Antony
------------------Mount------------------------------------------------
------------------------------Casemiro--------------------------------
Shaw------------Martinez--------Varane----------------AWB
---------------------------------DDG--------------------------------------
Back-up XI
-----------------------------Vitor Roque------------------------------
Garnacho----------------------------------------------------Amad
------------------------------Sancho------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------Eriksen---------------------
----------------------Rice-------------------------------------------------
Malacia-----------KMJ--------Lindelof----------Frimpong
--------------------------------NGK--------------------------------------
With both Rice and Casemiro playing against the top opponents and always one of them being on the pitch if possible. I like it!
