There is no question the return of 13 points from 30 is not good enough. It’s at least 5 points short of where we need to be and what we should have got given our fixtures, but I do believe United can make up those 5 points during the middle section of the season, that starts tomorrow against Crystal Palace. People will of course compare Van Gaals points total with Moyes’s, but the circumstances of the job are completely different. Moyes took over the Champions, Van Gaal has took over a team that finished 7th, confidence destroyed and a squad that was serevely unbalanced. I would argue Van Gaal had the harder job of the two. I believe in Van Gaal because the level of performance has been a lot more encouraging, the team play with some sort of spirit and appear to have confidence in the managers methods unlike under Moyes when early on it was clear to see they were not believing in what they were doing. I feel it when Van Gaal talks in the media, he is always honest and I often find myself agreeing with what he says , unlike Moyes who baffled me with his version of events and never left me feeling reassured when he spoke.
"We have 13 points out of 10 matches and that is below everything that we had expected, and what the fans had expected. I have the experience that people have great belief in what we are doing now, in the way we are playing football. When I am in the streets I am surrounded by very positive things, and when I'm in a car from United, there are lots of positive people. I'm feeling lousy for everyone that we have 13 points from 10 games.” This middle section of the season is extremely important to our hope of getting back into the Champions League. We need to be in a good position by the time the run-in comes round with 10 games to go. I think 70 points should be enough to make the top four so we need to have around 52 by the time we get to game 28. This means we need 39 points from the next 54 which means we can drop only 15 points from the next 18 matches. We have a difficult last 10 games so we dont want to be struggling and playing catch up by the time the final swing comes round. It starts tomorrow, the players need to collect the 3 points and they appear to have the confidence to deal with the pressure and expectation of that. Crystal Palace have nothing to lose by the run of form they are on would suggest its unlikely they have the confidence levels needed to really believe they can win the game so will certainly play not to lose rather than win.
Van Gaal has been criticised for his changes in formation, but this was always going to be a feature of United’s play under him because it’s what he does. The 3-man defence was thrown out because of the injury crisis and signings the club made late in the summer, the diamond didn’t give him the defensive balance he wanted so he has now reverted to a 4-3-3 system. Of course the injury problems haven’t helped develop team cohesion.
"When I want to select the same line-up, I cannot," said van Gaal.
"It's the same every week. It is like it is and I don't want to complain or cry because I have great belief in the players, myself and my staff. Also the supporters who are supporting us despite the results. I don't agree with your opinion of the defence (that United should be concerned). If you don't count the five goals at Leicester, we have better than Chelsea I believe. That's not the problem, the balance is. That is why I have remodelled the structure of my team. Now I have to solve the problems of the injuries every week, that's another story.” He added.
Tactically then it will be interesting to see how United line-up tomorrow. No Falcao would suggest we won’t see a switch back to the diamond shape because he can use Rooney in a deeper position, but I wonder in he might consider it so Di Maria can play deeper and more central where he appears to be more effective. The diamond means United lack natural width from high up the pitch, encouraging Rafael da Silva and Luke Shaw to overlap and stretch the play. The same applies in reverse, though: the lack of natural width means opposition full-backs are free to break forward, but against Palace this should’nt be a problem because Palace play defensively in that area. Not a lot appears to have changed defensively under Warnock (although Palace are conceding more goals) but the approach the team has appears the same. The defence continues to play very narrow so the full-backs tuck in close to the centre-backs and rarely leave the back four. This means United should’nt get overloaed sown the flanks if they do play with the diamond.
Van Gaal will proably stick with his 4-3-3 system though in the interest of balance and Palace will simply look to defend astutely and counter-attacked swiftly down the flanks. Palace will use a disciplined midfield cordon, that will work as a unit to prevent the us playing penetrative passes, and instead show us out wide. The centre-backs are happy to defend crosses, a big miss for them will be Jedinak in the midfield. He is a key player, mobile and feisty the Australian central midfielder covers the pitch laterally, fighting fires across the width of the pitch. He’s also Palace’s most prolific passer, starting moves from his deep-lying role. James McArthur is a natural partner for him in the centre of the pitch. Without him United may be able to find good space between the lines. Chamakh will be very disciplined defensively, and will drop into midfield when Palace don't have the ball probably on Daley Blind who will start most of our attacks from deep midfield and will look to play a link role behind Fraizer Campbell. Luckily for United’s injury hit defence they will not up against a top-class striker in Campbell, but I am sure he will be highly motivated on his return to United. The main palace threat is on the flanks, Yannick Bolasie and Wilfied Zaha can be infuriating, but tricky while Jason Puncheon combines useful goals with some shockingly bad contributions. I am confident Luke Shaw can cope 1v1 because of his accelartaiin and tackling ability, but Palace may target our right side which is missing Rafael who is still out injured. The big question is can United finally get it together in the final third to open the Palace defence. Di Maria has been superb with his direct dribbling, but Mata has struggled, Falcao hasn't completely settled into English football, Robin Van Persie has looked off-form for over a year now and Wayne Rooney got himself suspended for 3 games. It feels like none of the best attackers have yet found their best form this season. There have been few examples of these players combining dangerously with the build-up has been alarmingly slow at times. It looks a straight forward win, but it rarely is for United these days
"I think every opponent in the Premier League is very difficult to beat and we have seen that,” Van Gaal said.
Subs - Lindegaard, Blackett, Fellani, Fletcher, Herrera, Young, Wilson.
The main change is Mata for Fellani, but this is not a straight swap and on form this is unlikely to happen, but I want Di Maria inside rather than on the wing so I would tuck him in and play Mata wide, but Mata natural movement is to come inside which allows Di Maria space to make the reverse movement and supply width. Mata struggles on the wing, but playing there in a 3 is different to playing wide in a 442 because he has an inside left player that can shuttle laterally to cover space and help the left-back. I just think it would be a good way of dragging Palace out of shape and get more from Di Maria.