Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It looks like a missile took it out, shot from the far side, over 100 m away at least.
That's what Stefan said: "The DM-22 isn't a traditional mine, but more like an automatically triggered Panzerfaust that you put next to a road and the trigger cable on the road, that's why you see that shot."
 
Question:

Why isn't (unless I've just not seen it reported) Russia knocking out all the critical infrastructure in Ukraine at this point. Power plants, water treatment facilities, TV/Radio masts?

Is it a case Putin still thinks he'll take so much land that he needs to keep all that functioning so the country can essentially prosper as an extension of Russia?

They primarily did target this kind of infrastructure yesterday. Half were shot down and many just missed. In one of the clearer videoed strikes 2 missiles landed either side of a power plant. Others did land nowhere near any buildings of this sort, so obviously targeting civilians also.

The better question is why aren't they targeting military infrastructure. It suggests Putin is more concerned about waging a war of terror rather than a war of conquest at this point.
 
So basically Elon was used as the Putin's latest useful idiot.

A while ago he said hes gonna fight Putin for Ukraine peace, now, hed probably bring his own lube.
I was surprised earlier though, to learn hes a bit of a republican nutter, and still supply ukrainians with Starlink, so I guess hes just falling in line now.
 
The mobilization and nuclear threats, the senior administration official said, were “signs of two things: Putin does know how bad he’s doing. … That was a question mark before.”

“Two, it’s definitely a sign that he’s doubling down. That we’re not close to the end, and not close to negotiations. Those realities don’t give anyone any great comfort here,” the official said.

“We certainly understand that we are at a potential inflection point here in the war, on many levels,” the senior Biden administration official said. “That thinking is baked into [our] decision-making. … Ukraine has certainly done better and been more aggressive recently, and Putin is feeling the heat on the battlefield, at home, and overseas. There is no question that is a different set of conditions.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/10/russia-ukraine-war-turning-point/
 
I'm having a hard time knowing exactly what is going on here. I'm far too much of a cynic to believe almost anything I read in the media. It is FAR too powerful. 3 Days ago, all you could read about in the U.K. Was how stupid that mini budget was and the ramifications on the economic outlook, then Russia launches an assault and that's all people are talking about now. The amount of people who have used what's going on in Ukraine for their own benefit must be staggering. And now we have one of the sides pushing trump as the man who can convince putin to end the war, and all I can think is that it was Putins plan all along. There's just far too much misinformation, corruption and disregard for average people for me to feel really confident that there are actually any "good guys" part of this whole thing.
 
I'm having a hard time knowing exactly what is going on here. I'm far too much of a cynic to believe almost anything I read in the media. It is FAR too powerful. 3 Days ago, all you could read about in the U.K. Was how stupid that mini budget was and the ramifications on the economic outlook, then Russia launches an assault and that's all people are talking about now. The amount of people who have used what's going on in Ukraine for their own benefit must be staggering. And now we have one of the sides pushing trump as the man who can convince putin to end the war, and all I can think is that it was Putins plan all along. There's just far too much misinformation, corruption and disregard for average people for me to feel really confident that there are actually any "good guys" part of this whole thing.
Huh? I mean, the two things you mention are events that happened. The UK govt did release a mini budget with a tax cut and not spending cut, and financial markets did not take it well. And Russia did launch missile strikes across Ukraine yesterday and today.

The media are expected to report these things, but they don't exist in a vacuum, it's up to each person to keep up with the broader context and events that have come before. Not believing the media is pretty much what Putin wants from you/us.
 
Congress wants Zelensky to be more polite?


Apparently you have to say thank you so much for your support and politely ask for more from now on, whilst any person with a brain knows we need to stop Putin here and topple it or it is wwiii as he won’t stop at Ukraine. No bs, if you’re not going to support us with troops at least give us the weapons.

But the thruth also is, without the support of the US (and uk, German helmets etc) Russia would have taken the south east and annexed it like crimea months ago. So maybe some careful words are needed in public but behind the scenes most know what needs to happen and that is to stop Putin from getting any part of Ukraine
 
Apparently you have to say thank you so much for your support and politely ask for more from now on, whilst any person with a brain knows we need to stop Putin here and topple it or it is wwiii as he won’t stop at Ukraine. No bs, if you’re not going to support us with troops at least give us the weapons.

But the thruth also is, without the support of the US (and uk, German helmets etc) Russia would have taken the south east and annexed it like crimea months ago. So maybe some careful words are needed in public but behind the scenes most know what needs to happen and that is to stop Putin from getting any part of Ukraine

Don't forget it's quite likely that soon they'll be reliant on the support of some rather thick Republicans who will be only too pleased to take offence at any perceived slight so they can posture to their cultists.
 
Don't forget it's quite likely that soon they'll be reliant on the support of some rather thick Republicans who will be only too pleased to take offence at any perceived slight so they can posture to their cultists.

Ya and this really is what it comes down to, these people won't listen to Biden if they come into power.
 
Lukashenka is stuck on this one. Don't do anything and risk estrangment from the mother ship. Do something (like allow Russians to attack from the north again) and face the wrath of western sanctions.
He’s done an impressive job not getting involved. Russia needs allies desperately, I feel like that gives Lukashenko a lot of leeway. Claiming he needs to guard the Polish border is pretty clever.
 
I'm having a hard time knowing exactly what is going on here. I'm far too much of a cynic to believe almost anything I read in the media. It is FAR too powerful. 3 Days ago, all you could read about in the U.K. Was how stupid that mini budget was and the ramifications on the economic outlook, then Russia launches an assault and that's all people are talking about now. The amount of people who have used what's going on in Ukraine for their own benefit must be staggering. And now we have one of the sides pushing trump as the man who can convince putin to end the war, and all I can think is that it was Putins plan all along. There's just far too much misinformation, corruption and disregard for average people for me to feel really confident that there are actually any "good guys" part of this whole thing.

I’m not exactly sure how you’re tying the UK budget fiasco in with the war, but I will say that I completely agree re the propaganda. I’m not really posting in this thread but a lot of the stuff on here about how Russia is getting its ass kicked an Ukraine is dominating etc. is simply not true, unfortunately. Ukrainian soldiers are getting injured and dying in huge numbers and if you dig you can find video evidence of convoys of ambulances transporting people from the front. It’s slaughter. The western media won’t show any of this of course.

Russia has now for the first time carried out severe infrastructure strikes that have killed power, internet, water, etc. in large parts of Ukraine. Where this goes from here god knows but it’s really not looking good.
 
I’m not exactly sure how you’re tying the UK budget fiasco in with the war, but I will say that I completely agree re the propaganda. I’m not really posting in this thread but a lot of the stuff on here about how Russia is getting its ass kicked an Ukraine is dominating etc. is simply not true, unfortunately. Ukrainian soldiers are getting injured and dying in huge numbers and if you dig you can find video evidence of convoys of ambulances transporting people from the front. It’s slaughter. The western media won’t show any of this of course.

Russia has now for the first time carried out severe infrastructure strikes that have killed power, internet, water, etc. in large parts of Ukraine. Where this goes from here god knows but it’s really not looking good.
Zeihan has contended that Russia will win up until this big push, where he moved into the “who knows” category, as it’s likely much too early to say if Ukraine can sustain those pushes.

i haven’t heard any numbers on Ukraine losses, but you’re certainly right that information is being highly controlled.
 
It is clear that Putin is ready to end the life on this planet as we know it to get what he wants.

Does the west want to the same?

The situation seems bleak as no side will want to give in and I'm not sure what is a compromise both sides are ready to sign now. Seems nice compromise would have prevented this hell but no side wanted to give in. Neutral Ukraine was not something attractive it seems to neither side.

It's all so effed up.

West wanted Ukraine with them which means Ukraine is then against Russia. Ukraine has been used at least two times as a gate to invade Russia. In democracy each country can choose to whom they want to align with. Right ? Well Cuba didn't have that right.

Ukraine isn't a country like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. A lot of Russians did live there. A lot of population is truly pro Russian - not sure what percentage but that is a fact.

Was that professor actually right and both sides needed to work hard to keep Ukraine neutral and not cause this?

I'm extremely anxious. I live in east coast USA and nuclear shelter talks have started.
 
It is clear that Putin is ready to end the life on this planet as we know it to get what he wants.

Does the west want to the same?

The situation seems bleak as no side will want to give in and I'm not sure what is a compromise both sides are ready to sign now. Seems nice compromise would have prevented this hell but no side wanted to give in. Neutral Ukraine was not something attractive it seems to neither side.

It's all so effed up.

West wanted Ukraine with them which means Ukraine is then against Russia. Ukraine has been used at least two times as a gate to invade Russia. In democracy each country can choose to whom they want to align with. Right ? Well Cuba didn't have that right.

Ukraine isn't a country like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. A lot of Russians did live there. A lot of population is truly pro Russian - not sure what percentage but that is a fact.

Was that professor actually right and both sides needed to work hard to keep Ukraine neutral and not cause this?

I'm extremely anxious. I live in east coast USA and nuclear shelter talks have started.

I guess "Serbia" your location isn't a real country and is part of Yugoslavia right?
 
It is clear that Putin is ready to end the life on this planet as we know it to get what he wants.

Does the west want to the same?

The situation seems bleak as no side will want to give in and I'm not sure what is a compromise both sides are ready to sign now. Seems nice compromise would have prevented this hell but no side wanted to give in. Neutral Ukraine was not something attractive it seems to neither side.

It's all so effed up.

West wanted Ukraine with them which means Ukraine is then against Russia. Ukraine has been used at least two times as a gate to invade Russia. In democracy each country can choose to whom they want to align with. Right ? Well Cuba didn't have that right.

Ukraine isn't a country like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. A lot of Russians did live there. A lot of population is truly pro Russian - not sure what percentage but that is a fact.

Was that professor actually right and both sides needed to work hard to keep Ukraine neutral and not cause this?

I'm extremely anxious. I live in east coast USA and nuclear shelter talks have started.

If they were before they certainly aren't now.
 
It is clear that Putin is ready to end the life on this planet as we know it to get what he wants.

Does the west want to the same?

The situation seems bleak as no side will want to give in and I'm not sure what is a compromise both sides are ready to sign now. Seems nice compromise would have prevented this hell but no side wanted to give in. Neutral Ukraine was not something attractive it seems to neither side.

It's all so effed up.

West wanted Ukraine with them which means Ukraine is then against Russia. Ukraine has been used at least two times as a gate to invade Russia. In democracy each country can choose to whom they want to align with. Right ? Well Cuba didn't have that right.

Ukraine isn't a country like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. A lot of Russians did live there. A lot of population is truly pro Russian - not sure what percentage but that is a fact.

Was that professor actually right and both sides needed to work hard to keep Ukraine neutral and not cause this?

I'm extremely anxious. I live in east coast USA and nuclear shelter talks have started.

I think that's the crux of it, there is no "compromise" that Putin would have been happy with. To him Ukraine is Russian and must do as he says, history, diplomacy and ethics be damned.

And as for nuclear war, talking about shelters is good, worrying about it is not. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. It's still an unlikely outcome from all this.
 
I think it was Estonian PM Kaja Kallas who I saw speaking on Soviet negotiation tactics, still in use in Russia. She said their tactic is to make maximalist demands and refuse to negotiate. They believe the West is weak and will give something for nothing in order to prevent conflict at the end.
 
I see the end game here as Ukraine taking everything back with russia still having the official position that the four regions are still theres.

Really unlikely Russia uses nuclear weapons even when they lose crimea.

Of course Ukraine could stop at Crimea if pressured by the west however I think the west want them to take Crimea as-well because Zelensky’s rhetoric on Crimea has changed massively since the start of the war when he wanted Russian troops to withdraw to pre February boundaries.

It’s all or nothing here.
 
I think it was Estonian PM Kaja Kallas who I saw speaking on Soviet negotiation tactics, still in use in Russia. She said their tactic is to make maximalist demands and refuse to negotiate. They believe the West is weak and will give something for nothing in order to prevent conflict at the end.

That’s always been their tactic and the west has been weak until now, voters will go through hell this winter and usually politicians would appease voters however this has gone further than politics its now about freedom.

The west is now playing russia at their own game however for the first time Russia have no where to go, if Ukraine take back Crimea I think it could be spun very easily. “The Four regions are now apart of Russia, mission success, special operation over”.
 
"Elon Musk personally rejected a Ukrainian request to extend his satellite internet service to Crimea, the SpaceX CEO fearing that an effort to retake the peninsula from Russian forces could lead to a nuclear war, according to a report published Tuesday."

If governments stand strong he's gonna make sure Russia keeps Crimea. Fool.

https://www.businessinsider.com/elo...k-in-crimea-amid-nuclear-fears-report-2022-10
 
It is simple to deter Russia using nuclear weapons. NATO can declare that, if Russia uses it, USA will declare Putin, Medvedev & Co. as terrorists and will use all means to hunt and kill Putin and his gangs, like how Laden was treated.

Thugs never listen to reasoning, but they listen to forces, and they are scared of death.
 
Putin has said nothing to the world about a nuclear red line, Musk thinks he decided to announce it through Musk? Who's saying he didn't actually talk to Putin? Where did he get that idea from, then?
 
I'm not really sure what to think anymore. From one hand I'm reading and hearing Russians are running out of missiles and how its madness they're using it on civil infrastructure, on the other hand they have those in abundance and are using it to send Ukraine into dark.
Mobilisation wont work cause they wont be prepared or equipped but if they still have a lot of fire power to strike Ukraine it doesnt look good. On the other hand it seems Ukraine has enough weapons to defend against those and bring a lot of missiles down.
Also while it's good Ukraine is on the offensive can they keep it up numbers wise, cause they certainly have big losses too although nobody mentions it.

Had a wee talk with a friend in a whatsapp group, he was all about Musk's proposals being reasonable. :lol: So they attack Ukraine and for the sake of peace they get all 4 regions as a reward..
 
It is clear that Putin is ready to end the life on this planet as we know it to get what he wants.

Does the west want to the same?

The situation seems bleak as no side will want to give in and I'm not sure what is a compromise both sides are ready to sign now. Seems nice compromise would have prevented this hell but no side wanted to give in. Neutral Ukraine was not something attractive it seems to neither side.

It's all so effed up.

West wanted Ukraine with them which means Ukraine is then against Russia. Ukraine has been used at least two times as a gate to invade Russia. In democracy each country can choose to whom they want to align with. Right ? Well Cuba didn't have that right.

Ukraine isn't a country like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. A lot of Russians did live there. A lot of population is truly pro Russian - not sure what percentage but that is a fact.

Was that professor actually right and both sides needed to work hard to keep Ukraine neutral and not cause this?

I'm extremely anxious. I live in east coast USA and nuclear shelter talks have started.
First of all, it is not clear at all that putin will use nuclear weapons.

Secondly you commit the common fallacy of talking about this as a conflict between Russia and the west. It's not. Fundamentally it is a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with the latter fighting for their independence and freedom.. The west only enters the picture because Ukraine's fight is something worth supporting.

Talk about 'keeping Ukraine neutral' is not reality based. For one, the west does not have the power or authority to decide that. Secondly, Ukraine did and does not want that. They desire closer ties with western Europe, as did the Baltic countries. Thirdly, this would not have prevented Putin from invading in the first place.

The reactions of 'neutrality' you were hoping for has already happened in 2008 when Russia invaded Georgia. In fact, the Ukraine invasion followed the exact same template. The difference this time is the response from Western powers.

Putin cries about nato expansion is if it has been the design of nato to expand eastward. But the reality is that the neighbours of Russia have been extremely eager to join nato because they knew it was only a matter of time before Russia would attempt invasion otherwise. Poland and the baltics now enjoy security against this threat and Ukraine suffers from not having it.
 
Saying they won't support a new vote but should pretend to support Musk's proposal to sew division. Insightful watch.

 
First of all, it is not clear at all that putin will use nuclear weapons.

Secondly you commit the common fallacy of talking about this as a conflict between Russia and the west. It's not. Fundamentally it is a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with the latter fighting for their independence and freedom.. The west only enters the picture because Ukraine's fight is something worth supporting.

Talk about 'keeping Ukraine neutral' is not reality based. For one, the west does not have the power or authority to decide that. Secondly, Ukraine did and does not want that. They desire closer ties with western Europe, as did the Baltic countries. Thirdly, this would not have prevented Putin from invading in the first place.

The reactions of 'neutrality' you were hoping for has already happened in 2008 when Russia invaded Georgia. In fact, the Ukraine invasion followed the exact same template. The difference this time is the response from Western powers.

Putin cries about nato expansion is if it has been the design of nato to expand eastward. But the reality is that the neighbours of Russia have been extremely eager to join nato because they knew it was only a matter of time before Russia would attempt invasion otherwise. Poland and the baltics now enjoy security against this threat and Ukraine suffers from not having it.
Well said.
 
Interesting:

sigh
It's sad that they all seem to think taking Ukraine is about NATO. It's not and has never been. Some correctly mention that Russia originated from Kiyv and therefore it is clear that Ukraine has to be part of a "Greater Russia". The so called "strategic blunder" saved the Baltics and because war appeared to be inevitable there should have been a much more serious push for Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO.
 
Interesting:

I fundamentally disagree with all of these.

The premise from Kennan is that we must cuddle Russia like a child. Why should we favour Russias infantile wishes over Poland and the Baltics, who are now EU members and have benefited tremendously from the west receiving them welcomingly?

And ask those countries, they for sure would have said, then and now, that this was always going to happen. Because it has before. The neighbours have Russia have a far more intimate understanding of how Russian aggression works because they have been continously exposed to it for centuries now. They, like these quoted figures, warned of what was coming, but inevitably so, and without the callous cost considerations of Russian appeasement.

Kissinger, classically, talks about this whole thing as if only the great powers have agency and dismisses the will of the ukrainean people.

Mearsheimer makes the same fallacy. "the west is leading Ukraine down a path." sorry, but what utterly patronising bullshit. Colonialism in drag. I won't bother addressing the rest. All of it is imperialist apologism.

It is not the responsibility of the west to cuddle the pre-modern militant imperialism of an intransigent nation. And it is certainly not the responsibility of the west to sacrifice on that altar the wishes for freedom, democratic open societies and secure sovereignty of countries in the European sphere, simply because they have the misfortune of neighbouring Russia.

These analysts have already been proven wrong. It has proven to be a great decision from 'the west' to welcome Poland and the Baltics with open arms when they reached westward with alacrity. I dread to think of how central and Eastern Europe would look like today if we had just turned away and said 'they are Russia's sphere of influence.'

If there is something to be learned from 21st century geo politics, it is that the west ought to be vigilantly supportive of countries that desire democracy, open societies and sovereignty to do so. It should be clear by now that the non democratic greater powers will not find their path to our way of thinking through trade, prosperity and good will, as neo liberals believed. On the contrary, they will subvert democracy wherever convenient for them. The responsibility of the democratic block in the 21st century is to support democracy against such assaults.

Today that is Ukraine. In ten years, it will likely be Taiwan.
 
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It is clear that Putin is ready to end the life on this planet as we know it to get what he wants.

Does the west want to the same?

The situation seems bleak as no side will want to give in and I'm not sure what is a compromise both sides are ready to sign now. Seems nice compromise would have prevented this hell but no side wanted to give in. Neutral Ukraine was not something attractive it seems to neither side.

It's all so effed up.

West wanted Ukraine with them which means Ukraine is then against Russia. Ukraine has been used at least two times as a gate to invade Russia. In democracy each country can choose to whom they want to align with. Right ? Well Cuba didn't have that right.

Ukraine isn't a country like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. A lot of Russians did live there. A lot of population is truly pro Russian - not sure what percentage but that is a fact.

Was that professor actually right and both sides needed to work hard to keep Ukraine neutral and not cause this?

I'm extremely anxious. I live in east coast USA and nuclear shelter talks have started.

What evidence do we have, other than Putin’s words, that he would be happy to go into a nuclear war? I would say it is very, very far from ‘clear’.

Ukraine did not need to be neutral, they should just be free and allowed to make their own choices. Trying to deny them that right because Russia doesn’t like it is not a solution, you may as well hand them over to Russia is what you want is for them to not get close to the West.
 
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Interesting:

Interesting, yes, but outdate views of men that only think on a nation state/ geopolitical level. What about the agency and wishes of the people and voters of Lithuania, Poland and now Ukraine? Should they all be forever subject to the geopolitical whims and wishes of the toxic wife beater Russia?