You are wrong here. It's a density thing, it's about the combination of space and population. It's not about overall population but population per square meter in a given area. For example Milan is a very dense area and is therefore a very risky one. Regarding the debate that you are having, you all need to scale it down and look at each urban areas individually, they are not all equal and can't really be averaged when you are talking about a potential spread or the consequence of an outbreak on the health structure because these things regionalized.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Jamie (@Vault Dweller) are joined by special guest Anders (@Lyng) to celebrate the news that ETH is staying put! They also talk about the Euros so far, with special attention on England, Scotland and Denmark. They then finish with some transfer talk and the potential comings and outgoings at Old Trafford.
You’re confusing total with proportion. Hospital capacity etc is calculated as a proportion of the population. Just because Italy has a larger total number of people in cities does not mean the proportional spread within the population will be higher than Sweden (independent from number of social contacts). And it’s the proportional rather than the total spread which is important in regards to health care. Italy has 6 times the population but 6 times the hospital capacity compared to Sweden.What the feck are you on about man
My reasoning is simple, that with 34 more million people living in Italy in urbanized areas than Sweden then the risk of this virus spreading as quickly as it did in Italy and as disastrously, including the culture differences is enourmous compared to Sweden.
But nevertheless the other factors you mention will probably result in a less damaging epidemic within Sweden compared to Italy.
Trying to find some humor in this miserable world
Silver linings.
Sweden looks like a limp dick
Also, further to my previous post about the UK refusing to take up the offer of EU ventilator purchasing
About those dyson ventilators
About those dyson ventilators
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds
It's from 2017, but Sweden's (ICU) bed numbers per capita are way lower than most, including Italy. In the end it's all relative and most curves from western countries look pretty similar.
It's from 2017, but Sweden's (ICU) bed numbers per capita are way lower than most, including Italy. In the end it's all relative and most curves from western countries look pretty similar.
I'm not having the argument any longer JP, Lombardy, with a land mass of
The original Spanner comparison to experts thinking Sweden may go the way of Italy is utter utter tosh. Simples, why is it even an argument?
I'll say it again, in Lombardy alone they have a higher population of all of Sweden and people over 65 years old represent the 21.6% of that population. That's more +65's than ALL OF SWEDEN, just in Lombardy. Lombardy, with a land mass of 23,844 km has a bigger population than all of Sweden and more over 65+ than's the entire country of Sweden.
That's my last down the rabbit hole post on this. My original post was simply to say Spanner was talking tosh and somehow it's lead to this bizarre deabte.
We have the ability to instantly double it though, and with the exhibition centre being turned into a field hospital it'll be many more soon.
In a Gallup poll, 60% approve of Trumps coronavirus response, 38% disapprove.
From 13-22 March, 49% approve of his job performance, 45% disapprove.
Can someone explain this to me please before I lose all fecking hope for the US? Is Gallup particularly bias towards Trump?
From 13-22 March, 49% approve of his job performance, 45% disapprove.
Can someone explain this to me please before I lose all fecking hope for the US? Is Gallup particularly bias towards Trump?
how China is combatting the Corona virus. Incredible use of technology and big data. 8 min video.
not really
Jonathan Pie: LOCKDOWN episode 2
I agree with you that differences in social makeup and interaction probably puts Italy more at risk than Sweden, but that has nothing to do with your above argument.
Proportionally speaking and all else being equal yes I disagree that 42 towns with 100k inhabitants are more likely to be virus hotspots than 9. Each of these towns and their inhabitants are at a similar level of risk. I do think that your cities are less population dense and maybe less interactive so in that sense your cities are at lower risk, but not simply because they are fewer in number. 30% of your population live in them while only 20% of Italians live in towns of over 100k people.
If your 65+ figures are correct then Sweden has about 20% of its population over 65 and italy has about 23% or so. Again then, all else being equal yes, I would disagree that Italy is on a completely different level to Sweden when it comes to at risk groups. From that stat alone Italy could be said to be a bit more at risk, but certainly not at another level.
Also, I posted earlier this morning with the newsnight statement of death numbers and the government changing how they are counted.
From the Guardian live blog, this is the explanantion from the government spokesman to the lobby journalists
"The spokesman confirmed that the way UK coronavirus deaths are recorded and made public is changing (see 11.07am), but he was unable to give details of how. He said Public Health England is moving to a different reporting time. Yesterday was “a cross-over day” in the way they were recording the numbers, he said. But he was unable to explain what would change. "
You can't plot progression curves with UK data any more, todays numbers are not comparable to Mondays.
From the Guardian live blog, this is the explanantion from the government spokesman to the lobby journalists
"The spokesman confirmed that the way UK coronavirus deaths are recorded and made public is changing (see 11.07am), but he was unable to give details of how. He said Public Health England is moving to a different reporting time. Yesterday was “a cross-over day” in the way they were recording the numbers, he said. But he was unable to explain what would change. "
You can't plot progression curves with UK data any more, todays numbers are not comparable to Mondays.
I see the WTO are forecasting a bigger world recession and job losses greater than 2008. What a surprise. It may we’ll be that the cure turns out to be worse than the disease. After all the disadvantaged can only be helped if governments the world over have resources yet the way we are currently going virtually every developed country might be bankrupt
Wow, the difference between some European countries is crazy. 15.9 ICU beds in Belgium (and capacity has been increased massively in the last 2 weeks), only 6.4 in the Netherlands. Does anyone have an explanation for that?
When one region of Italy, Lombardy, has a higher population and more 65´s than all of Sweden... of course it's on a different level.
How?
Sweden also have measures built into the system to prevent disease spreading in the first place such as sick pay you can actually live on and temporary paid parental leave to care for sick children. Most employers encourage people to stay home if they are not well.
The idea everything is as normal in sweden now is BS, there is a clear strategy with systematic responses. It could of course still spiral out of control.
The idea everything is as normal in sweden now is BS, there is a clear strategy with systematic responses. It could of course still spiral out of control.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:Population_age_structure_by_major_age_groups,_2008_and_2018_(%_of_the_total_population).png
65+ year olds in:
Italy: 22.6%
Sweden: 19.8%
I'm not sure that makes a huge difference. And even if (going by 2017 numbers linked earlier) Sweden were to double their ICU beds instantly, then their per capita count would still be below that of Italy. And in general: putting a bunch of field beds into a festival hall doesn't equal ICU beds, those need ventilators and other really expensive equipment (as well as trained people to operate them) - you can't just pull them out of thin air.
65+ year olds in:
Italy: 22.6%
Sweden: 19.8%
I'm not sure that makes a huge difference. And even if (going by 2017 numbers linked earlier) Sweden were to double their ICU beds instantly, then their per capita count would still be below that of Italy. And in general: putting a bunch of field beds into a festival hall doesn't equal ICU beds, those need ventilators and other really expensive equipment (as well as trained people to operate them) - you can't just pull them out of thin air.
Cases: 56,188 (+8.578)
Cases in ICU: 3.679 (+513)
Deaths: 4.089 (+655)
Recovered: 7.015 (+1.648)
Spain have upped the testing.
UK was ahead of France and Spain in testing but won't be for long if not behind now. France going up from 2-2.5k per day to 19k and 29k per day. UK's 20-25kper day still hasn't happened.
Cases in ICU: 3.679 (+513)
Deaths: 4.089 (+655)
Recovered: 7.015 (+1.648)
Spain have upped the testing.
UK was ahead of France and Spain in testing but won't be for long if not behind now. France going up from 2-2.5k per day to 19k and 29k per day. UK's 20-25kper day still hasn't happened.
Made the mistake of reading accounts of healthy people who caught it and are not looking good. Now I'm terrified again.
You’ll be fine, just try not to go out. If you do have to, wash your hands for at least 20 seconds at every single opportunity. Don’t touch your face. No kissing. No shagging. No wanking as your cock could be infected with corona.
You get caught up so much in all the death and tragedy, it's so easy to forget the real victims here. All those poor celebrities that nobody's paying attention to anymore...
Wank with a condom on
We were too busy thinking about whether Liverpool would be awarded the title that we forgot the real victims in all of this.
If you go out anywhere, treat every single person anywhere near you as if they have it.
Wear gloves and cover your face. I use mountain biking gloves and a scarf.
Then for maximum effect, cough into your elbow every couple of minutes.
I've had no issues with anyone invading my space.
Why do people on here seem to be trying to outdo each other in terms of doom and gloom or scaremongering? This negativity isn't helping anyone. How about some positivity?
That'll be mighty helpful. You know the address@Ish let me know if I need to send you an express package with some Belgian ones
Queues for groceries and liquor were crazy this morning. Don't think anyone thought alcohol and cigs were going to be banned. Government sort of "contained" the panic a bit by not disclosing their entire plan. initially it was thought restaurants would remain open - but you could only do takeaways....now all restaurants are closed. Outside of essential services, we can only leave the house for essential goods - groceries, medical supplies or emergencies and the collection of social grants. Can't even jog outside or take our dogs for walks.
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this is one way to flatten the curve.
Anything to stay in the limelight. How dare a little flu virus interrupt their followers.
It definitely makes me feel so much better that these naturally beautiful people are sharing pictures of their natural beauty while I'm sitting here overweight, pale and in need of a haircut and a shave in my 3 year old joggers and worn out hoodie.
The cases exist, but they are still rare. Especially the ones leading to death(practically non-existent).
In Norway, roughly 10% of confirmed cases end up in the hospital. The actual number of infected getting hospitalized is therefore probably somewhere between 2-5%. Let's say 4% to not be overly positive. Among the hospitalized, roughly 5% have died. All of them have been old or had an underlying condition. The number is expected to rise, but not dramatically as long as there are enough ventilators.
TLDR: the death rate is probably around 0.2% - 0.3%. If you're young and healthy it's significantly lower. The biggest worry is the number of ventilators and available medical staff.
James Dyson, a Brexit supporter, is a Conservative Party member and donor. Enough said.
UK?
What about every other country in the world? Tell me one were strict measures weren't imposed relatively early and things are under control? Portugal started doing it when we had about about 10 cases, people have been mostly home for the past two weeks and still our hospitals are being overwhelmed. Granted our spare capacity is probably smaller than a wealthier country like Sweden, but still.
There are two types of countries in the world. The ones that acted quickly (all in Asia) and the ones that didn't.
A bunch of leaders and health authorities experimenting "and modelling" with death at their door. If the world returns to normal they should all stand to be trialed.
Not being funny John, but I think you might want to wash it a bit more often.