Yeah I’ll say it: The Relegation Thread

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Jericholyte2

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I’m immediately getting my flame shield out here. People will cry that this is a knee-jerk reaction or that it’s hyperbolic or cry-baby, but hear me out because this could happen.

We have scored 28 PL goals this season with 29 points. Of those 28 goals we have; Amad with 6, Rashford with 4 and Martinez with 2 - that’s nearly half of those goals from players who won’t be on the pitch for the rest of the season.

We’ve got 1.16 points per game this season WITH those goals, so where will we be without them?

I was going to look at remaining fixtures etc but frankly it’s too depressing to think about. All I’ll say is that I think it’s a very genuine possibility, as we recently got outplayed by Southampton, so I can’t honestly see any fixture where I’d say “OK well we’ll win that one”.

I think we need to brace ourselves.
 
Two wins from our last 13 games will be enough to keep us up. We have zero chance of being relegated
 
We're not getting relegated but only because 3 teams have less resources and squad depth. All things considered we should be relegated
 
Not this season but I wouldn’t bet against next year. We have been in relegation form for the best part of two years now.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
All I’ll say is that I think it’s a very genuine possibility, as we recently got outplayed by Southampton, so I can’t honestly see any fixture where I’d say “OK well we’ll win that one”.

I think we need to brace ourselves.
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The Southampton game was ages ago. Be realistic, we’ve got a lot worse since then.
 
We deserve to be relegated but should just about survive.

In most seasons we would go down playing like this, but thankfully the bottom three teams are outstandingly crap this year.

That said, you never know what could happen if we really can’t pick up any more points before the end of the season.
 
RaddyRed said:
Two wins from our last 13 games will be enough to keep us up. We have zero chance of being relegated
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Annihilate Now! said:
We only need to win 3 more games, and realistically 2 will be fine.
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We still have Ipswich and Leicester to play, true. But we on just scraped past Leicester in the cup thanks to lack of VAR and we’ve lost out main attacking output for the season.

Would you put your house on us winning these games?
 
Might even survive if we got zero points from this point onwards. That's what the spread market says anyway with their forecasts for bottom 3 points totals. No chance we go down.

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Opta going with something similar.
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A win and a couple of draws is plenty.
 
I’m not sure we’ll win 3 games out of our last 13, to be honest

However we’re 12 points above relegation. That’s a lot, you wouldn’t be getting complacent at the other end of the table but unless all of Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester suddenly start smashing out wins, it’s unlikely any of them will overtake us.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
We still have Ipswich and Leicester to play, true. But we on just scraped past Leicester in the cup thanks to lack of VAR and we’ve lost out main attacking output for the season.

Would you put your house on us winning these games?
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I would put my house on us staying up.
 
We could lose every remaining game this season and probably be safe. The promoted teams are that bad. In a "normal" PL season we'd be in trouble though.
 
To be honest, given our injuries there really is no other target than this for this season. Originally it was feck off the league as long as we don't get relegated and aim for Europa league, but with our squad as it is I don't think we have a chance at winning a cup. We don't have anyone to score goals. Thankfully we're 12 points clear and I think we're safe as is. Ipswich at home and Leicester away over the next month should seal that though and leave us with a thoroughly uneventful final 2 months of the season with nothing to aim for or hope for. Lower mid table purgatory is what we are.
 
Even if we lost every single game left this season, it's quite feasible that Leicester and Ipswich fail to get 13 points (taking them 1 point above us) within their final 13 games. Especially, as they have averaged less than a point per game so far.

United are a truly diabolical side that I wouldn't put relegation past them next season if they carry on in their current fashion, but there's no chance they go down this season.
 
6 or 7 points keeps us up, we’ll get that somehow. I suspect we will lose to comfortably to Everton and if Ipswich beat Spurs and then win at Old Trafford we would be in the shit. At some point I think we will genuinely get dragged into it, if only briefly.

I expect us to finish 16th and the 12 point gap we currently have to relegation zone will reduce.

29 points would have kept us up 2 of last 4 seasons and may well even be enough this season as well.

Next season might be a tough one as well.
 
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Jericholyte2 said:
We still have Ipswich and Leicester to play, true. But we on just scraped past Leicester in the cup thanks to lack of VAR and we’ve lost out main attacking output for the season.

Would you put your house on us winning these games?
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What odds are you giving me? Do I get a bigger, better house!?

I think we can get 6 points from the games against Ipswich, Leicester, West Ham and Wolves.

Can't believe that's a serious post I'm actually making but here we are
 
We're lucky. From memory, Ipswich have conceded quite a few last minute/stoppage time goals this season. They hang on in a couple of those and the gap looks a lot smaller.

As it stands, both Ipswich and Wolves would need to go on a run for us to be in any danger. We'll stay up, but I don't think think we'll finish any higher than 14th.
 
We are 12 points ahead of Leicester and Ipswich, who managed 17 points in 25 games. I don’t think either of them are even getting to 30 points so barring a points deduction, which I think is quite unlikely we are not going down.

And we will obviously win some points between now and the end of season. Maybe it won’t be much, unlikely to be more than 10 but it won’t be zero.
 
Would be some quality away games to go to if we went down. Potential of being in the same league as Stockport and Wrexham as well.

I'm all for it
 
We're not going down BUT IF Ipswitch & Leicester get a results against us in , the cheeks will start clenching. Ironically the 4 points Ruud won us could be quite valuable by the end of the season and send Leicester down
 
Like anything mathematically possible, there’s a non-zero chance of Utd getting relegated, but that’s about as much as you could say.

I’d guess that you could play the remainder of the season 1000 times in 1000 separate universes and you wouldn’t get relegated a single time.
 
We could get dragged into to it but its unlikely. If Ipswich beat Spurs and beat us at OT and we lose to Everton then they would be within 6 points of us. Of couse Wolves would still have to start picking up points as well.

Even then we would still only need 6-7 points.
 
I mean if we lose next two and ipswich wins against spurs next then things would get tight. At this point I have no fecking idea what's next
 
32 points were enough to survive last season. If we beat Everton we'll be on 32, and hopefully get a win against Ipswich, we'll be on 35. After the Arsenal game, next league match is Leicester (you'd like to think we would win that) Look at our remaining fixtures, April looks grim. But crucially as it stands, we're still a whole 12 points ahead, also we're 10 ahead of Wolves
 
Who are we replacing in the bottom 3?

I've asked this to people who talk about relegation before and have never had an answer
 
Everton next - Moyes has really invigorated them and it's difficult to see anything other than a United defeat. After that, we have what now looks to be a massive game against Ipswich - United simply must get something from that game, otherwise it will be difficult to avoid being dragged into a genuine relegation battle in March/April when our fixtures are brutal with Arsenal, Forest, City, Newcastle and Bournemouth. Final two games of the season are probable defeats against Chelsea and Villa, so if things look dodgy coming into May, we'll perhaps need results against Brentford and/or West Ham to give us a points cushion for the final run-in.

Difficult to say how it will go - beat Ipswich, Leicester and Wolves and we will likely end up comfortably in 15th for the remainder of the season without ever really flirting with relegation, but if Ipswich somehow beat us, you could imagine this squad falling into a bit of a death spiral.
 
I think we have enough of a cushion to be ok. However, we are absolutely in the dog fight. The games against Southampton and Leicester were so humbling.
 
humdinger said:
I think we have enough of a cushion to be ok. However, we are absolutely in the dog fight. The games against Southampton and Leicester were so humbling.
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Indeed. It is the lack of goals that is likely to drag us properly into it - in the last 12 games we have 3 wins and 1 draw - the goal scorers in those games were Diallo (x5), Martinez (x2) and Bruno (x1 - pen). So no goals in open play from anyone except Diallo and Martinez, both of whom are out until the end of the season.

Our front three (presumably now for the remainder of the season) is Hojlund (no goals in 15 games), Garnacho (no goals in 18 games) and Zirkzee (1 goal in 13 games).
 
Hopefully this thread won't be tanked like the other ones haha.

I do think the bottom three are outstandingly bad this season, and that keeps us plenty safe, but I genuinely think we're in the battle next season. We're properly dreadful, broke and completely disorganised, and honestly I don't see any positives right now, where that spark is meant to come from.
 
Assuming we don’t do much in the summer (which we won’t) then this will become realistic for next season

We’d have been in the relegation fight in seasons gone. We’re lucky the bottom 4 are so dreadful.

The teams coming up for next season will be better than us
 
People keep saying "The bottom three are shit, we'll be fine" which is fair enough, they do look shit, but almost every season some team in the bottom three go on a run to get themselves out of trouble or at the least, give themselves a fighting chance.

Ipswich will come at us like fecking harriers in two weeks and if they win, that could be their jumpstart.
 
Come on Amorim, you can do it!
First Portuguese to relegate United!

Now seriously, the bottom four are too far away, you’ll be ok but if the season started now I don’t know.

Maybe he can win the Europa league and save the season but with so many injuries it’s not going to be easy.
 
I do fear that, without some very good signings and even one good player who can drag us through games with brilliance, we’re on the road to it.

Just think, if we sign even more duds in the summer, next season is going to be a real problem. It’s quite easy to see how it could happen, though it’s now unlikely this season. Mainly because of how poor the bottom 3 are.
 
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