Xavi (Spanish Lego Pep) | Manager watch

[Bennie Blanco]

Where then? Only 1 season Benfica? (Apart from Ajax/PSV according to you which doesnt count for you, which is weird as they are always battling each other)

I think the 2nd bold statement is unfair? It would be like blaming you for a semi-decent Christmas dinner where you had the budget to only get some Roast Chicken, only because the years before there was someone else with the budget to get some prime steak beef.

Allow me to rephrase. He's failed everytime he stepped up.

And mate let's be honest, the Eredivisie is not of the highest quality. You've a point with regards to the Depay signing, especially considering he was on a free.

Should he have done better with the players at his disposal? I think he should have. Xavi has no experience managing at the top level, it's a gamble, hence I adressed your arguement that Koeman getting sacked was unfair.

In my opinion, it wasn't.

 

[Niemans]

That team was not as bad as this one is. In 02-03 they finished 6th in La Liga. In UCL they lost in the QF against Juve in extra time (2:1) and got an early elimination in CdR vs Novelda.
Kluivert and Saviola that season combined scored over 40 goals. Now they don't even have 1 proficient striker

You have to analyze the context.
Barcelona is having a plague of injuries to very important players that prevent them from having a regularity.
The remaining players play many times in positions that are not their own.

You have Liverpool as an example.
2 years ago he won the league with 99 points.
This year they are. a great level
And what happened last year? They had an injury crisis and almost did not enter the champions league, they broke several negative records and I do not want to think about their if Salah had been injured.

Barcelona this year with a normal season of injuries would be second or third without problems.

Fati and Agüero have more goals on one finger than Saviola and Kluivert combined

 

[A Civilized Reader]

World Cup and Champions League winner.

I think it’s daft to write off players without physicality, you just can’t have 11 of them.

Jorginho - Height 1.80 m, Weight 68 kg

Wow I didn't know Jorginho is in worse condition than me . They didn't let him eat at Chelsea or what?

 

[GifLord]

You have to analyze the context.
Barcelona is having a plague of injuries to very important players that prevent them from having a regularity.
The remaining players play many times in positions that are not their own.

You have Liverpool as an example.
2 years ago he won the league with 99 points.
This year they are. a great level
And what happened last year? They had an injury crisis and almost did not enter the champions league, they broke several negative records and I do not want to think about their if Salah had been injured.

Barcelona this year with a normal season of injuries would be second or third without problems.

Fati and Agüero have more goals on one finger than Saviola and Kluivert combined

This is their injury list. Also you're talking about past his peak Aguero. Last season he scored 6 goals in 20 matches for City. As for Fati he's not a proficient goalscorer - at least not yet.
Top 2? No chance. Maybe top 4. Their defense is utter shit. Pique, Alba and Biscuits are past it. Sergi Roberto is an overpaid joke. Then there's Dumbele and Cuntinho,... Their squad with or without injuries is really poor.

 

[Andre Kagawa]

This is their injury list. Also you're talking about past his peak Aguero. Last season he scored 6 goals in 20 matches for City. As for Fati he's not a proficient goalscorer - at least not yet.
Top 2? No chance. Maybe top 4. Their defense is utter shit. Pique, Alba and Biscuits are past it. Sergi Roberto is an overpaid joke. Then there's Dumbele and Cuntinho,... Their squad with or without injuries is really poor.

Fair to say you don't fancy Barca that much, GifBro?

 

[BrilliantOrange]

Allow me to rephrase. He's failed everytime he stepped up.

And mate let's be honest, the Eredivisie is not of the highest quality. You've a point with regards to the Depay signing, especially considering he was on a free.

Should he have done better with the players at his disposal? I think he should have. Xavi has no experience managing at the top level, it's a gamble, hence I adressed your arguement that Koeman getting sacked was unfair.

In my opinion, it wasn't.

Lets agree to disagree here..

Again, not making the statement that Koeman is some kind of miracle worker who would have definitely be the one to bring Barca back to the top. But blaming him for their performances this year was a bit too much if you ask me, as I think it was largely due to circumstances.. The same circumstances Xavi now faces.. Lets hope Xavi gets the time - which he probably will - and proved to be the right coach to give Barca its face back..

 

[Niemans]

This is their injury list. Also you're talking about past his peak Aguero. Last season he scored 6 goals in 20 matches for City. As for Fati he's not a proficient goalscorer - at least not yet.
Top 2? No chance. Maybe top 4. Their defense is utter shit. Pique, Alba and Biscuits are past it. Sergi Roberto is an overpaid joke. Then there's Dumbele and Cuntinho,... Their squad with or without injuries is really poor.

I'm talking about the injuries that Barcelona have been carrying throughout the season, not the ones they have now.
Atletico Madrid are playing worse than ever and Real Sociedad and Sevilla usually leave many points.
So yes, Barcelona with the usual injuries would be second or third.

https://understat.com/league/La_liga

With all the injuries of important players, most up front and playing with Dest as a winger, Luuk De Jong or Depay as ST which is not his position and many others out of position.

Now anyone can see the statistics I put in the link and draw the conclusion that with Pedri, Ansu, Agüero and others playing in their positions the classification would be different.

And Fati is a goalscorer, he has a lot of goal in his boots. In fact, most of his youth team career was as a center forward.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

Didn’t they have a rough time around the turn of the millennium up until the signing of Ronaldinho? Granted it was a lifetime away and a bit weird overall (Valencia winning 2 league titles, Deportivo in CL semi) but it’s not unfathomable to fall away for 5-6 years before making a comeback.

They finished 1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 6th, 2nd, 1st. That's 5 seasons without winning the title, but 2 of them with a good final placement. Not too dire.

I think when you are talking longer periods of time, the new reality starts to set in and escaping it becomes trickier. That's why I think 5-10 years to win a league title is way too long.

I think they'll just be competitive more quickly than that.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

So yes, Barcelona with the usual injuries would be second or third.

Barcelona finished third last season with Messi. They don't have Messi now. Are you saying they won't miss Messi much or am I not following something here?

 

[Niemans]

Barcelona finished third last season with Messi. They don't have Messi now. Are you saying they won't miss Messi much or am I not following something here?

Barcelona finished third last year because Lenglet and Ter Stegen made unforgivable mistakes that cost many points, among other things.

https://understat.com/league/La_liga/2020

Real Madrid and Atletico got a lot of points for very little football.
Barcelona did much better football but made mistakes and that deservedly lost the league.
People's problem is that they only see statistics but don't analyze the context and that leads to misinterpretations.

Yes, Barcelona lost Messi but still without the injury crisis it would be second or third. You take away Real Madrid and Atletico and you think Sevilla, Real Sociedad or Betis have a better team or squad?

 

[Charrockero]

I don't see how Barcelona can leave their bad situation if it's going to take 5-10 years for them to win a league title. That's a huge chunk of a player's career; anyone good enough will just leave and they'll be constantly playing catch-up.

It's a man utd forum. They have a skewed vision of time because that's how it works for their club...

I'm not a Barsa fan.

I think 5-10 years is a good period of time to determine if a football project is going to succeed or not. Milan and Inter took about 8-10 years to enter into CL or win Serie A, respectively. 6 years is what took Jurgen Klopp to finally win a title with Liverpool. The post-Calciopoli Juventus took 5 years to finally win a Serie A under Conte.

Of course, Barsa's deplorable economic crisis will make a huge impact into their recovery, but even after the Gaspart years they were able to sign Ronaldinho, Eto'o, Deco, Marquez, Sylvinho, Giuly and Motta, all of whom where relatively low-cost and were key for their 2005 CL and La Liga double. Intelligent and clever signings can still be performed.

Madrid fans fancy a lot of their current top form but do not forget that before the 1997 CL final Madrid had a 30 year dorught of not winning an European Cup, just to note that even the most succesful team in the world can suffer the same fate as others.

 

[Morty_]

I'm not a Barsa fan.

I think 5-10 years is a good period of time to determine if a football project is going to succeed or not. Milan and Inter took about 8-10 years to enter into CL or win Serie A, respectively. 6 years is what took Jurgen Klopp to finally win a title with Liverpool. The post-Calciopoli Juventus took 5 years to finally win a Serie A under Conte.

Of course, Barsa's deplorable economic crisis will make a huge impact into their recovery, but even after the Gaspart years they were able to sign Ronaldinho, Eto'o, Deco, Marquez, Sylvinho, Giuly and Motta, all of whom where relatively low-cost and were key for their 2005 CL and La Liga double. Intelligent and clever signings can still be performed.

Madrid fans fancy a lot of their current top form but do not forget that before the 1997 CL final Madrid had a 30 year dorught of not winning an European Cup, just to note that even the most succesful team in the world can suffer the same fate as others.

Times have changed, the fees for top players these days are insane compared to the past, and the oil clubs still hadn't risen yet(Chelsea had just started).

Barca can't pick the biggest stars for a while, i don't think.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

I think 5-10 years is a good period of time to determine if a football project is going to succeed or not. Milan and Inter took about 8-10 years to enter into CL or win Serie A, respectively. 6 years is what took Jurgen Klopp to finally win a title with Liverpool. The post-Calciopoli Juventus took 5 years to finally win a Serie A under Conte.

I don't know all the ins and outs of Serie A but from what I understand these were not singular 'football projects.' Milan and Inter have changed ownership a few times during that period. Juventus won the title in Conte's first season and Marotta's second season.

So it's less "it takes time for a football project to succeed" and more "in a long period of time you might finally catch a lucky break."

Liverpool under Klopp you can call a singular project. But he got them to a CL final in 2018, having been appointed in October 2015. That's just three years. They won the CL the next season and got an insane number of points in the PL. So not really six years.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

Barcelona finished third last year because Lenglet and Ter Stegen made unforgivable mistakes that cost many points, among other things.

Barcelona conceded 38 goals in the 2019-2020 season. They conceded 38 goals in the 2020-2021 season. In the current season, they have conceded 19 goals in 16 games, which would project to 45 goals conceded over the whole season. I'm not sure how you can consider this an "unforgivable mistake" over such a long period of time. That's just what Barcelona's defense is.

https://understat.com/league/La_liga/2020
People's problem is that they only see statistics but don't analyze the context and that leads to misinterpretations.

I'm looking at these statistics and finding the result highly questionable.

According to this, Real Madrid, Atletico, and Sevilla should have finished between 10 and 20 points lower on the table than they did.

The entire top 4 bar one team was wildly overperforming these statistical marker.

Don't you find this statistic a bit preposterous?

 

[roonster09]

Barcelona finished third last year because Lenglet and Ter Stegen made unforgivable mistakes that cost many points, among other things.

https://understat.com/league/La_liga/2020

Real Madrid and Atletico got a lot of points for very little football.
Barcelona did much better football but made mistakes and that deservedly lost the league.
People's problem is that they only see statistics but don't analyze the context and that leads to misinterpretations.

Yes, Barcelona lost Messi but still without the injury crisis it would be second or third. You take away Real Madrid and Atletico and you think Sevilla, Real Sociedad or Betis have a better team or squad?

Didn't Barca concede first in many games last season? Usually strong team that goes goal behind and end up going all out attack end up with better xG.

I'm not sure, I remember reading that Barca ended up chasing lot of games

 

[stefan92]

The entire top 4 bar one team was wildly overperforming these statistical marker.

Don't you find this statistic a bit preposterous?

Constantly overperforming xGoals/xPoints is usually a sign of great squad quality, clinical finishing, exceptional saves etc. So if anything this shows that Barcelona still had a strong style of play, but just average players (as their xG and xGA are quite close to reality - expected values are based on averages over a lot of players).

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

Constantly overperforming xGoals/xPoints is usually a sign of great squad quality, clinical finishing, exceptional saves etc. So if anything this shows that Barcelona still had a strong style of play, but just average players (as their xG and xGA are quite close to reality - expected values are based on averages over a lot of players).

Since I'm bored at work, I looked at the xPTs table from 2018 to 2021. Here's a plot of Expected Points vs. Actual points for Real Madrid, Atletico, Sevilla, and Barcelona from 2018 to 2021:

There is very little correlation between the 'expected points' that this system is giving you, and the actual points that teams are getting at the top of the table.

I did the same for the current season:

No correlation whatsoever.

If I have a statistical marker that has no correlation to the thing I'm trying to measure, I would just assume it's not good.

 

[stefan92]

I did the same for the current season:

No correlation whatsoever.

If I have a statistical marker that has no correlation to the thing I'm trying to measure, I would just assume it's not good.

How does it look when you put all teams in that graph, not just the top 4? If my point above should be true, we should see much better correlation over the whole league and the top teams should be outliers.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

You should see more correlation if you put all the teams in the graph because the range of points is much larger. But we're not adding useful information.

 

[Niemans]

Barcelona conceded 38 goals in the 2019-2020 season. They conceded 38 goals in the 2020-2021 season. In the current season, they have conceded 19 goals in 16 games, which would project to 45 goals conceded over the whole season. I'm not sure how you can consider this an "unforgivable mistake" over such a long period of time. That's just what Barcelona's defense is.



I'm looking at these statistics and finding the result highly questionable.

According to this, Real Madrid, Atletico, and Sevilla should have finished between 10 and 20 points lower on the table than they did.

The entire top 4 bar one team was wildly overperforming these statistical marker.

Don't you find this statistic a bit preposterous?

The best way to have an opinion is to watch the 38 matches of Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico.
I've watched every league game for Barcelona and almost all of them for Atletico and Real Madrid.

Barcelona started the season very badly, from the third match to the tenth . Messi was like playing with one less, he didn't defend and he was a disaster in attack. He was not yet mentally prepared after the story of burofax and wanting to leave.

From there Barcelona had an extraordinary streak: 18 or 19 matches without losing with 15-16 wins and 3 draws, 9 consecutive wins away from home and a good goal average. Barcelona also won the CDR during that time.
Barcelona without Messi had very good results: 0-4 vs Dinamo Moscow and 0-3 vs Ferencvaros for example.

And when you could put leader winning at home to Granada then you lose. You start winning 1-0, Messi and another who I don't remember miss 2 clear chances and then 2 brutal defensive errors.

My opinion is that people who did not watch the matches are influenced by many comments in the press and forums. Mainly because Koeman doesn't like him

Barcelona deservedly lost the league due to very serious individual errors repeatedly.
Barcelona's game had ups and downs but overall it was good compared to previous seasons with Valverde.
I repeat, this is my opinion for people who did not watch the matches.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

Whatever method is used to calculate this stuff, it results in teams near the top outperforming their expected points by 7.6 +- 7.5. That's an enormous bias at the top.

That means you can't actually say "Barcelona's better football will or should give them a higher placement on the table."

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

The best way to have an opinion is to watch the 38 matches of Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico.

Niemans, I didn't post the statistics website. You did. You said Barcelona lost points because of individual errors, then posted a statistics website that says Barcelona should have conceded more goals than they did. I'm not really sure why you did that.

 

[Stacks]

You have to analyze the context.
Barcelona is having a plague of injuries to very important players that prevent them from having a regularity.
The remaining players play many times in positions that are not their own.

You have Liverpool as an example.
2 years ago he won the league with 99 points.
This year they are. a great level
And what happened last year? They had an injury crisis and almost did not enter the champions league, they broke several negative records and I do not want to think about their if Salah had been injured.

Barcelona this year with a normal season of injuries would be second or third without problems.

Fati and Agüero have more goals on one finger than Saviola and Kluivert combined

Yes because they are retired duh!

Fati highest tally is 8. Aguero managed 6 in his final season at City. Pretty sure Saviola and Kluivert delivered more than that EVERY SEASON

 

[The Corinthian]

Niemans, I didn't post the statistics website. You did. You said Barcelona lost points because of individual errors, then posted a statistics website that says Barcelona should have conceded more goals than they did. I'm not really sure why you did that.

 

[Niemans]

Niemans, I didn't post the statistics website. You did. You said Barcelona lost points because of individual errors, then posted a statistics website that says Barcelona should have conceded more goals than they did. I'm not really sure why you did that.

I put the statistic mainly for expected points, a way of seeing with numbers the development of a season, obviously more things are needed to get an exact idea.

Several goals conceded for individual errors have practically an expected value of 1.
For example the goal of Alavés or Cadiz

https://rpp.pe/futbol/futbol-mundia...a-marcar-el-1-0-laliga-espana-noticia-1301685

With this mistake, Barcelona lost 2 points.
Alavés 1 ( 1.11) - Barcelona 1 ( 2.08)
Without that error, Alavés would have stayed at 0.11.
And so with many other games.

In addition, a goal average of +43 seems to me to be very good for a team that was considered a disaster.

 

[Niemans]

Yes because they are retired duh!

Fati highest tally is 8. Aguero managed 6 in his final season at City. Pretty sure Saviola and Kluivert delivered more than that EVERY SEASON

I expressed myself badly, I'm sorry. I want to say that both Agüero and Fati have more scoring ability than Kluivert and Saviola. But with an abysmal difference.

 

[Niemans]

If you have not understood something you can ask, that is what a forum is for. I will try to explain it in the best way although my English is very mediocre

 

[Dave Smith]

I expressed myself badly, I'm sorry. I want to say that both Agüero and Fati have more scoring ability than Kluivert and Saviola. But with an abysmal difference.

Not sure about this. 33 year old Kun, even without the heart problem and 19 year old Fati, who is constantly injured (17 appearances since the beginning of last season and only 51 in total) doesn't strike me as a better partnership than Kluivert and Saviola in the early 00's.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

I put the statistic mainly for expected points, a way of seeing with numbers the development of a season, obviously more things are needed to get an exact idea.
...
With this mistake, Barcelona lost 2 points.
Alavés 1 ( 1.11) - Barcelona 1 ( 2.08)
Without that error, Alavés would have stayed at 0.11.
And so with many other games.

For me the underlying issue is whether these statistics are descriptive or predictive.

Sometimes a team can lose a game because of an individual mistake, and we can say 'they should not have lost the game.' Barcelona have conceded 38 goals two seasons in a row and are on course to concede the same or more this season. That's three seasons, not one game. It's clear the mistakes aren't going to just stop. They're not random.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

How does it look when you put all teams in that graph, not just the top 4? If my point above should be true, we should see much better correlation over the whole league and the top teams should be outliers.

I was bored this afternoon and looked at it further.

• For the 2019-2020 season, the R^2 for GF, GA, and GF-GA vs. points is 0.78, 0.65, and 0.95. The R^2 for xGF, xGA, and xGF-xGA vs. points is 0.80, 0.52, and 0.83. So xGF fares slightly better than GF, the rest fare worse.
• For the 2020-2021 season, the R^2 for GF, GA, and GF-GA vs. points is 0.77, 0.65, and 0.89. The R^2 for xGF,xGA, and xGF-xGA vs. points is 0.71, 0.46, and 0.73. So each xStat fares worse than the actual thing.
• The correlation between xPts and points is 0.74 and 0.83 for 2019-2020 and 2020-2021.

I thought the point of "expected variable" is that they were more predictive of overall results than the actual thing. That doesn't seem to be the case in this data, which... makes this xStat a bit useless, at least at the level of 'season.'

 

[ShinjiNinja26]

The Spanish Ole?

 

[Daysleeper]

"We don't understand the way we want to play football. It's strange that there are Barça players who don't understand positional play. This is about winning and we are eighth in the standings, we have to be positive and brave. Press up front, press after losing, attack spaces... this is what we want". - Xavi

 

[Zehner]

The Spanish Ole?

I think they are entirely different and if Xavi fails then for entirely different reasons as well. Xavi is idealistic and the question is if a) his system is still competitive in 2021 and b) if he can transport his ideas into the heads of his players. Solskjaer didn't have a system in mind at all. He was all about motivation and man management.

 

[therealtboy]

"We don't understand the way we want to play football. It's strange that there are Barça players who don't understand positional play. This is about winning and we are eighth in the standings, we have to be positive and brave. Press up front, press after losing, attack spaces... this is what we want". - Xavi

I said this earlier in the thread, he needs players to buy in to his methods. The Al Saad players were ready to run through brick walls for him, this set of Barca players apart from the Nicos and Pedris, aren't interested in all that. He needs complete buy in or the whole thing won't work.

 

[Daysleeper]

I said this earlier in the thread, he needs players to buy in to his methods. The Al Saad players were ready to run through brick walls for him, this set of Barca players apart from the Nicos and Pedris, aren't interested in all that. He needs complete buy in or the whole thing won't work.

it’s going to take time for sure but 70% of this roster needs to be gutted

 

[Pickle85]

"We don't understand the way we want to play football. It's strange that there are Barça players who don't understand positional play. This is about winning and we are eighth in the standings, we have to be positive and brave. Press up front, press after losing, attack spaces... this is what we want". - Xavi

Was @Boss Xavi all along...?

 

[Daysleeper]

Was @Boss Xavi all along...?

Have never seen both of them in the same room

 

[therealtboy]

it’s going to take time for sure but 70% of this roster needs to be gutted

Absolutely, 70% gone, bring in 2 or 3 experienced players that fit the system and build around Nico and Pedri, Araujo, Garcia, Fati and move from there. Cavani would be sensational for this team, lead from the front for a season or two. Theres a lot of young talent to work with but he needs hardworking experienced players like back in the day when Barca brought in Beletti, Edemilson, Guily, Larsson etc.

 

[Pickle85]

Have never seen both of them in the same room

Would be quite the Scoobie Doo unmasking moment, hey

 

[Niemans]

Absolutely, 70% gone, bring in 2 or 3 experienced players that fit the system and build around Nico and Pedri, Araujo, Garcia, Fati and move from there. Cavani would be sensational for this team, lead from the front for a season or two. Theres a lot of young talent to work with but he needs hardworking experienced players like back in the day when Barca brought in Beletti, Edemilson, Guily, Larsson etc.

F. Torres and Cavani would be very good options.
Barcelona will have to be alert to players who end up contract, such as ajax's RB or Azpilicueta and gradually compensate the team.
The ideal would be players of the Spanish national team. With L. Enrique already has an identity and there are quite a few important Barcelona players.

_____________ T. Stegen
_ Azpilucueta__Araujo_E. García_Alba
____ Pedri _Busquets/Nico _ Gavi
____ F.Torres__Cavani____ Fati

It wouldn't be a bad start