I think your arguments do hinge too much on the 'this squad isn't as good as other's squads' point as if - and i do dislike using this analogy after another poster has positively spammed the thread with it - every player is a kind of numerical value of attributes that can be quantified and then totalled up like in FIFA or Football Manager... Chelsea = 347 Liverpool = 356 Man Utd = 315 and ergo all league positions are thus pre-ordained by these quantities.
Of course. But it's perfectly possible to assess the strengths of a squad without resorting to numerical values. If you ask yourself the question "in what positions do Liverpool/City/Chelsea lack the quality/depth needed for a top team?", it seems to me pretty obvious you'd come up with considerably fewer things to name than you'd do with United's squad.
This is obviously fallacious and borne out by numerous examples of managers who achieve the absolute most out of what is available to them. SAF won a league with Cleverley in midfield and Welbeck regularly starting up front. Klopp not only had Kagawa and Mikhytaryan as players of the year in the Bundesliga he also turned Henderson - widely derided at the time - into a premier league and champions league winning captain. I have no doubt at all that Klopp would have this Man Utd squad as title contenders.
Well, you seem to forget that it took Klopp five seasons to turn Liverpool into champions. Also, I think you need to consider the distinction between what is
possible and what is
reasonable to expect. Just because there are examples of managers who achieve results well beyond what you can reasonably expect from the squads they have at their disposal, that doesn't mean that you can expect a manager to do that, nor conclude that he is deficient if he doesn't.
Obviously there's a degree to which players (and managers) are important. Klopp's not going to make the top four with the Dog and Duck eleven and a Sunday league manager probably wouldn't relegate Man City. The question at hand is - for one of the biggest clubs in the world - with mass appeal and a gigantic budget - was Solskajer a sensible, rational appointment?
That is
a question, but it is not
the question being discussed in this particular exchange. But no problemo, let's discuss it.
The answer really does have to be no. I'm not saying Ole is inevitably going to not be successful here, I think he's doing a pretty good job honestly. But appointing someone without proven winning experience at the highest level or at least showing signs they are within touching distance of that - eg. Pochettino, Nagellsman - was poorly reasoned in anyone’s book (other than those who derive an unhealthy degree of their self worth by believing themselves to be morally superior football club fans). It's an unnecessary level of risk that would most likely never be taken by an organisation of similar financial standing without immediate shareholder revolt. Obviously shareholders are happy with Ed Woodward as - while being quite evidently clueless regarding football - he is clearly very. competent at selling Man Utd products to a global market.
Ole might very well turn out successful here - I've enthused massively about some of the performances we've had under him, was even impressed by the performance in the loss to PSG. But if he does and people are overly self-righteous about it, it's a bit like betting big on a horse that was 15/1 and then saying 'SEE! I knew they were gonna win all along!'. If you consistently bet on horses that are 15/1 you'll make less money than the person who was picking 2/1, 3/1 each time. It's simple maths. What the club probably should be doing is more simple maths. The fact they don't indicates that football is a far, far lower priority than Man Utd the brand. They would do well to remember what the brand is built on from time to time. That’s what LVG meant when he said Man Utd was a commercial club and not a football one. Football is like an afterthought to this board until the bottom line starts to get hit.
There are some fair points in there, but I'm not sure if your betting man approach to defining reality is much better than the FIFA stats approach to judging players that you rightly reject in your first paragraph. Even if I treat that as just an analogy, the analogy only holds if wins and good United performances under Solskjær only happened sporadically, which is not the case. Horses who win frequently aren't 15-1. Also, from a betting or probabilities perspective, an inexperienced manager is inherently a bigger risk than an experienced one. That's how you have to think when you're setting odds. That however is a much, much more simplistic equation than deciding on the right manager. Odds just reflect the assessed probability of a closely defined outcome, such as a manager getting fired or winning the PL within a certain time. Finding the right manager is a question of defining a complex approach to a challenge that includes many different aims, and then finding the person who fits your needs. Someone who might be the right person to solve one set of challenges, may not be the right person to solve a different set of challenges. Also, OGS has now been a top-level manager for two years, so that uncertainty is now much less than it was when he was appointed. Hence, he is no longer a similar risk.
An interesting thought experiment is hypothesising how Ole would do with the squad that LVG had where LVG finished fourth and fifth and won the FA cup (while boring us to tears). Do you think he'd do better or worse with no Bruno and instead Lingard in midfield? No older and more consistent Rashford? No £130 million spent on defenders, no Telles, no Pogba, no Cavani, no Greenwood? We had a little glimpse of it before Bruno came and that's what makes people's alarm bells sound.
Er, what? That makes no sense. If he has a worse squad, then he gets worse results. If the only difference between the observable reality and your hypthetical is the squad, then the reason you get different results in the two is the squad. When we do better with Bruno than Lingard as no 10, the reason is Bruno is better than Lingard as no 10. Ie, squad matters.
Anyway the debate will go on and on forever with the same points being made on either side over and over again. But you can’t really argue with the logic that Ole was a risky appointment. You could do a simple numbers job of league finishes (with weighting by league) to budget ratio of managers to find a fair few managers who were available and would score far higher than Ole. There is plenty of evidence available. Therefore the hysteria surrounding any criticism or questioning of the Ole appointment is literally ignorant and more subjectively sanctimonious, self righteous and basically quite annoying .
I certainly agree there were many safer options in terms of previous record. I was surprised myself at the time, and also unconvinced it was the right choice. But you should consider that there were also factors favoring Ole. Not least, that he was already in place and had shown a good rapport with the players, as well as some obvious ability to get the best out of them. I think the key thing though was his vision of where the club was and where it needed to go and what was required to do that. That was what turned me too. Because I think that was absolutely right, and for a rebuilding project that included regaining club identity and values and generally required traits he had shown that he has, he was - is - a good choice.
Also, how do you score managers? Especially as you argue in your first paragraph that you can't score players?