World Cup Betting Thread

Gone for Bosnia later, this is really a must win game for them if they are looking to make it through and I thought they played some decent stuff against Argentina despite going behind after 2 minutes
 
Sir Fergie said:
Gone for Bosnia later, this is really a must win game for them if they are looking to make it through and I thought they played some decent stuff against Argentina despite going behind after 2 minutes
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It's not really a must win. If they draw this and then beat Iran they'll have four points which will be enough to go through assuming Nigeria don't beat Argentina. I do think they'll win anyway though.
 
I had BTTS, but stuck it along a German win.

I'm just sticking to goals and BTTS now. That's where the money is.
 
No, I stopped. Was losing a bit, so better to ignore the bookies for a while.

EDIT: I like snooker betting, and the proper start of their season is at Monday, so hopefully some luck from then.
 
dave2die4 said:
Anyone think BTTS is most likely later with both sides needing a win at this stage?
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Really depends on whether Nigeria turn up because they were awful in the last game. Bosnia do look good too so I reckon this may be the one result today which is relatively straightforward to call. Then again you have to think Nigeria are better than what they showed against Iran.

EDIT: Actually, that's unfair on Iran. They obviously defend well so Nigeria probably do have a goal in them here. I reckon you're right about the BTTS. Bosnia and BTTS at 3/1 could be the one.
 
Brwned said:
Really depends on whether Nigeria turn up because they were awful in the last game. Bosnia do look good too so I reckon this may be the one result today which is relatively straightforward to call. Then again you have to think Nigeria are better than what they showed against Iran.

EDIT: Actually, that's unfair on Iran. They obviously defend well so Nigeria probably do have a goal in them here. I reckon you're right about the BTTS. Bosnia and BTTS at 3/1 could be the one.
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I have lumped on BTTS, i did BTTS and Germany in the last match so decided not to be as greedy this time
 
What have been people's worse bets? I cashed out on argentina in the 89th minute, it still hurts
 
dave2die4 said:
What have been people's worse bets? I cashed out on argentina in the 89th minute, it still hurts
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I cashed out this fivefold on the left when it was the 90th minute in the Brazil game for £5 or so, only to later realise that the reason I stuck that fivefold on in the first place was because if only one of the bets fails the stake is refunded. Fool!

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dave2die4 said:
What have been people's worse bets? I cashed out on argentina in the 89th minute, it still hurts
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My worst bet in this WC was betting on Colombia's GK to get the next card (around the 80th minute).
Plan was to put €2.5 on it, but the ',' didn't get through, so after Tioté's mad tackle it became a €25 loss.

Worst bet of the year has to be Man Utd - Sunderland when I cashed out a Vidic yellow in the 80th minute which ended up costing me €200 in profits.

For Nigeria-Bosnia I'm hoping for Nigeria offsides, really need to get one right after a few horrible days.
 
I've lost all of the profits of yesterday by backing Germany + BTTS, and then being so confident of a German victory stuck another £10 on a German win when went 2-1 down.

Honestly, I've seen the light today. Goals are the way forward for me for this tournament now. It's become too unpredictable.
 
Cantonarightboot said:
where's spiersey now to tell lecture us again :lol: another disaster day! Keeping my funds for premier league!
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I'm right here. One shock result today with Germany drawing. Argentina still won, as expected, regardless of how tight it was. Also Nigeria if they hold on.
 
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Good thing I'm done with this World Cup. Counted it all and I'm about $130 behind, not much when you think of the amount of huge losses I had (although having been in tidy profit not long ago and knowing I genuinely had a plan to quit at the time it is worse than it looks). Today I'd probably be another hundred behind - all three games I would not have predicted. It is a much better tournament to watch when you don't have to worry about money.
 
This could be a massive failure but there's been ten 1-1 & 2-1 results combined thus far and all tomorrows games will be relatively close and low scoring in my opinion

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Sarni said:
Good thing I'm done with this World Cup. Counted it all and I'm about $130 behind, not much when you think of the amount of huge losses I had (although having been in tidy profit not long ago and knowing I genuinely had a plan to quit at the time it is worse than it looks). Today I'd probably be another hundred behind - all three games I would not have predicted. It is a much better tournament to watch when you don't have to worry about money.
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I feel ya, today has been a shocker, all 3 were real shocks, not even goals in 2 of them
 
DannyDash said:
I feel ya, today has been a shocker, all 3 were real shocks, not even goals in 2 of them
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I'd be on Argentina -1, then Germany and then Bosnia. Three losses, possibly significant. Good thing I'm out.
 
Sarni said:
I'd be on Argentina -1, then Germany and then Bosnia. Three losses, possibly significant. Good thing I'm out.
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Yeah I had similar ones, plus Bosnia in a different one to qualify...
you got any other ones one that are ongoing e.g. qualification ones.
 
im out.. from $30 to $100 to $20 to $0 :( :(

this world cup too difficult
 
Cantonarightboot said:
Nigeria we're not favorites! Every single bookie had Bosnia as favorites! Argentina fecked up majority of handicap bets!
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What he said before about the favourites winning had nothing to do with the handicaps though - that's just people being greedy. -1's have been a disastrous idea all tournament so I don't know how anyone can call it a shock when yet another one - or two, with so many going on Germany - doesn't come off.

I decided to do a quick comparison between this World Cup and 2010 in terms of upsets and the favourites winning by more than one goal. The figures are pretty much the same and by the end of the group stages you'd expect they'll even out to being almost identical. The idea that there's been more upsets isn't really based on anything other than pure instinct and flawed memory and the same applies to there being less comfortable wins for the favourites than expected. When people bet on the favourites to win -1 in the World Cup they're betting on what they intuitively think is right and little more than that.

Brazil 0-0 Mexico
Netherlands 5-1 Spain
Chile 2-0 Spain
Costa Rica 3-0 Uruguay
Costa Rica 1-0 Italy
Iran 0-0 Nigeria
Nigeria 1-0 Bosnia

7/29 (24% of games)

Mexico 2-0 France
South Africa 2-1 France
England 1-1 USA
England 0-0 Algeria
Serbia 1-0 Germany
New Zealand 1-1 Slovakia
Italy 1-1 New Zealand
Paraguay 0-0 New Zealand
Switzerland 1-0 Spain
Switzerland 0-0 Honduras

10/48 (21% of games)

Brazil 3-1 Croatia
Croatia 4-0 Cameroon
Chile 3-1 Australia
Colombia 3-0 Greece
France 3-0 Honduras
Germany Portugal 4-0

6/29 (21% of games)

Uruguay 3-0 South Africa
Argentina 4-1 South Korea
Argentina 2-0 Greece
Germany 4-0 Australia
Netherlands 2-0 Denmark
Japan 3-1 Denmark (?)
Paraguay 2-0 Slovakia
Brazil 3-1 Ivory Coast
Portugal 7-0 North Korea
Ivory Coast 3-0 North Korea
Spain 2-0 Honduras

11/48 (23% of games)

It's shit when you lose money, especially when you're backing what you consider to be "obvious" results, but if you look into it you'll see it was entirely predictable if you're betting on the match results and handicaps in the World Cup. Obviously you still need to vent your frustration but if you put that aside for a second you can see that there is some truth to what Spiersey's said.
 
Cantonarightboot said:
Nigeria we're not favorites! Every single bookie had Bosnia as favorites! Argentina fecked up majority of handicap bets!
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I meant Nigeria was a shock too. I don't count losing handicaps bets as a shock assuming the team still wins though! Also Iran have only lost by more than 1 once in 4 years, even though it's much poorer opposition, they were clearly used to not conceding a lot.
 
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I too have arrived at the conclusion that handicap bets have become a mug's game in this tournament. Of the 30 games played, only 10 have have had winning margins of 2 or more goals. And some of those games include Ger-Por, Spa-Chi, Uru-Crc (Crc victory) and Spa-Ned, games you'd never predict.
 
Both Algeria and South Korea are rubbish defensively but play good football so both teams to score at 2.1 seems very overpriced to me.

Might stick a fiver on this at ~4/1

Belgium or draw
BTTS South Korea-Algeria
Portugal
 
Fancy USA/Draw at 11/10 tonight. Don't rate Portugal and think USA certainly have it in them to get a result.
 
My first bet for about two/three months, going for a Belgium victory at 13/10. Belgium unbeaten in their last 9 games and Russia unbeaten in their last 8 games, fancy an outright winner in this game and one of those runs to come to an end.
 
Belgium to score over 1.5 goals for me. Oh yeah can't forget £2 on Fellaiani anytime scorer haha.
 
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