SomeRandomPerson
Full Member
- Joined
- Dec 8, 2014
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So, with the lads back in training today, and with Erik ten Hag staying, joined by Ruud van Nistelrooy, what are your expectations for the new season? What would count as a success? If we have another poor start in the league, should Ten Hag's job be under pressure given the contract extension? What are your hopes, dreams and aspirations for the new season?
I think that unless we see change in system for next season, we are in for another difficult season in the league even if (hopefully) our injury woes are behind us. Despite much chaos and mockery, I think Chelsea have assembled a very good squad and were obviously on a good run toward the end of last season. Plus, they apparently underperformed their underlying xG numbers significantly last season so I'd think we will see some sort of reversion to the mean this season. So, even though they've sacked Pochettino (who I rate), and they've appointed Maresca (who I know nothing about), I'd expect them to have a strong season. Newcastle, like us, were really hampered by injuries last season. But Eddie Howe has done a good job implementing a playing style there, and Isak looked on the verge of a breakout towards the end of the season. So, if the players stay fit, and Isak continues on his upward trajectory, I'd expect them to have a much improved season (and both Chelsea and Newcastle finished above us last season, remember). Also worth pointing out, Chelsea and Newcastle were the 5th and 4th best teams in the league based on xPts last season if you care about that sort of thing. So the underlying number do point to them being on the right path.
Spurs under Postecoglou I am convinced were nowhere near as good as the amount of praise they got last season - yes, Postecoglou has imposed his style on the team very quickly and they finished fifth last season, but I think they are far too open defensively to have too high a ceiling. They started the season on fire last time which I think is what most of the praise was based on - early impressions and all that. But I think there is a lot of work to do for them to finish top 4. Villa I am also unsure about. Obviously Unai Emery is unquestionably one of the world's elite coaches and has the CV in European club competition to prove it (even if most of his success is in the Europa League). But they've not had European football for ages now so I'd expect them to show at least some growing pains when it comes to juggling multiple competitions. They have ambitious owners, a good squad and an elite manager so will be interesting to see where they go next season. At any rate, I'd expect both Villa and Spurs to be tough challengers for our most realistic aim for next season (finish top 4).
And then finally, we get to the big 3 in the league - City, Arsenal and Liverpool. Obviously City have the best squad and the best manager. Favourites to win the league again, in my opinion. Arsenal also seem to have stepped up big time - last season showed that their league challenge the year before was no fluke. They have the meanest defence in the league and I expect them to be City's main challenge for the league again. Liverpool I expect to have a major drop off, not because I don't rate Arne Slot (I know nothing about him), but because replacing Klopp is an impossible task. Klopp is not just, in my opinion, one of the most impressive and influential tacticians in last 15 years (along with Pep), his emotional connection with the club and fans, as well as his personal charisma and motivational skills meant that he was able to push a bunch of good players to the point of playing as equals against Guardiola's City. Obviously Liverpool have also recruited brilliantly in the Klopp years, and the side that won the Champions League in 2019 and the league in 2020 were obviously full of brilliant players, but they got 97 and 99 points in the league in those seasons - more cumulatively than City over those seasons, and only 2 points fewer than the 100 (in 2018) and 98 (in 2019) points totals which is best City ever managed over 2 seasons - and that is entirely down to Klopp's insane cult of personality pushing these players to the limit in an almost Fergusonian way. Even if Arne Slot is what he is advertised to be i.e., a very promising up and coming coach, that is just going to be very difficult to replace. Especially as Liverpool have let their squad quality slip a bit since the title win. Klopp can get these lot to play City off the pitch at Anfield last season and win the league cup, a normal good coach is probably not going to be enough. So, with City and Arsenal taking up the top 2 spots, I expect Liverpool to be dragged down to the rest of our levels and duke it out for the remaining 2 spots.
So that leaves us, Chelsea, Newcastle, Villa, Spurs and Liverpool fighting for 2 spots and I'm not confident at all in our ability to come out on top in that race. Even with De Ligt, Zirkzee and Ugarte. Especially given how many chances we conceded last season, and how much we've struggled both in playing out from the back and in just getting the ball into the final third (let alone reliably creating chances) over both seasons under Ten Hag. I'm not sure we will be able to make up the required ground as quickly as we need to.
On the other hand, what positive qualities Ten Hag does demonstrably have are his tactical acumen in one-off games as well as his demanding nature which have seen us win cup tournaments in each of his 2 seasons after failing to win a trophy since 2017 before him. I would hope for more of the same next season with a deep run (and hopefully winning) at least one of the domestic cups. More than anything, I think we should really be targeting the Europa League for next season - a great chance to win a European trophy, would take it to 3 trophies in 3 years and has the added bonus of giving us a route into the Champions League for 2025/26. There are 5 teams each from Germany and Italy in the Champions League, neither Sevilla nor Villareal have qualified (although Real Sociedad have qualified, so one of our bogie teams will be there), and given that Champions League teams will no longer be dropping down, it also removes a bunch of other strong teams from contention. Our path to the trophy should be achievable. Honestly, we should have won the Europa League at least once under Ole - we bottled it against Villareal in the final in 2021, and against Sevilla both in 2020 (as well as in Ten Hag's first season). So, if I were Berrada/Ashworth/Wilcox/Ten Hag, I would set winning the Europa League as a goal for next season. If we struggle in the league again, we might again find ourselves in a position of needing to winning a cup to rescue the season, and I am pinning my hopes on the Europa League.
Thoughts? Expectations?
I think that unless we see change in system for next season, we are in for another difficult season in the league even if (hopefully) our injury woes are behind us. Despite much chaos and mockery, I think Chelsea have assembled a very good squad and were obviously on a good run toward the end of last season. Plus, they apparently underperformed their underlying xG numbers significantly last season so I'd think we will see some sort of reversion to the mean this season. So, even though they've sacked Pochettino (who I rate), and they've appointed Maresca (who I know nothing about), I'd expect them to have a strong season. Newcastle, like us, were really hampered by injuries last season. But Eddie Howe has done a good job implementing a playing style there, and Isak looked on the verge of a breakout towards the end of the season. So, if the players stay fit, and Isak continues on his upward trajectory, I'd expect them to have a much improved season (and both Chelsea and Newcastle finished above us last season, remember). Also worth pointing out, Chelsea and Newcastle were the 5th and 4th best teams in the league based on xPts last season if you care about that sort of thing. So the underlying number do point to them being on the right path.
Spurs under Postecoglou I am convinced were nowhere near as good as the amount of praise they got last season - yes, Postecoglou has imposed his style on the team very quickly and they finished fifth last season, but I think they are far too open defensively to have too high a ceiling. They started the season on fire last time which I think is what most of the praise was based on - early impressions and all that. But I think there is a lot of work to do for them to finish top 4. Villa I am also unsure about. Obviously Unai Emery is unquestionably one of the world's elite coaches and has the CV in European club competition to prove it (even if most of his success is in the Europa League). But they've not had European football for ages now so I'd expect them to show at least some growing pains when it comes to juggling multiple competitions. They have ambitious owners, a good squad and an elite manager so will be interesting to see where they go next season. At any rate, I'd expect both Villa and Spurs to be tough challengers for our most realistic aim for next season (finish top 4).
And then finally, we get to the big 3 in the league - City, Arsenal and Liverpool. Obviously City have the best squad and the best manager. Favourites to win the league again, in my opinion. Arsenal also seem to have stepped up big time - last season showed that their league challenge the year before was no fluke. They have the meanest defence in the league and I expect them to be City's main challenge for the league again. Liverpool I expect to have a major drop off, not because I don't rate Arne Slot (I know nothing about him), but because replacing Klopp is an impossible task. Klopp is not just, in my opinion, one of the most impressive and influential tacticians in last 15 years (along with Pep), his emotional connection with the club and fans, as well as his personal charisma and motivational skills meant that he was able to push a bunch of good players to the point of playing as equals against Guardiola's City. Obviously Liverpool have also recruited brilliantly in the Klopp years, and the side that won the Champions League in 2019 and the league in 2020 were obviously full of brilliant players, but they got 97 and 99 points in the league in those seasons - more cumulatively than City over those seasons, and only 2 points fewer than the 100 (in 2018) and 98 (in 2019) points totals which is best City ever managed over 2 seasons - and that is entirely down to Klopp's insane cult of personality pushing these players to the limit in an almost Fergusonian way. Even if Arne Slot is what he is advertised to be i.e., a very promising up and coming coach, that is just going to be very difficult to replace. Especially as Liverpool have let their squad quality slip a bit since the title win. Klopp can get these lot to play City off the pitch at Anfield last season and win the league cup, a normal good coach is probably not going to be enough. So, with City and Arsenal taking up the top 2 spots, I expect Liverpool to be dragged down to the rest of our levels and duke it out for the remaining 2 spots.
So that leaves us, Chelsea, Newcastle, Villa, Spurs and Liverpool fighting for 2 spots and I'm not confident at all in our ability to come out on top in that race. Even with De Ligt, Zirkzee and Ugarte. Especially given how many chances we conceded last season, and how much we've struggled both in playing out from the back and in just getting the ball into the final third (let alone reliably creating chances) over both seasons under Ten Hag. I'm not sure we will be able to make up the required ground as quickly as we need to.
On the other hand, what positive qualities Ten Hag does demonstrably have are his tactical acumen in one-off games as well as his demanding nature which have seen us win cup tournaments in each of his 2 seasons after failing to win a trophy since 2017 before him. I would hope for more of the same next season with a deep run (and hopefully winning) at least one of the domestic cups. More than anything, I think we should really be targeting the Europa League for next season - a great chance to win a European trophy, would take it to 3 trophies in 3 years and has the added bonus of giving us a route into the Champions League for 2025/26. There are 5 teams each from Germany and Italy in the Champions League, neither Sevilla nor Villareal have qualified (although Real Sociedad have qualified, so one of our bogie teams will be there), and given that Champions League teams will no longer be dropping down, it also removes a bunch of other strong teams from contention. Our path to the trophy should be achievable. Honestly, we should have won the Europa League at least once under Ole - we bottled it against Villareal in the final in 2021, and against Sevilla both in 2020 (as well as in Ten Hag's first season). So, if I were Berrada/Ashworth/Wilcox/Ten Hag, I would set winning the Europa League as a goal for next season. If we struggle in the league again, we might again find ourselves in a position of needing to winning a cup to rescue the season, and I am pinning my hopes on the Europa League.
Thoughts? Expectations?