Westminster Politics

Out of interest, what happened to Frost? I was surprised to read recently that he was actually a remainer in 2016. In fact, he seemed to be eminently sensible. He also seems to be the kind of person the Tories tend to look down upon (ie someone who's spent almost all of their career in some kind of public service/government/foreign office role, without a 'real job'.

Yet everything he has said in the past few years is adversarial, aggressive and shite. He seems to be consistently wrong on all aspects now.

Probably cruising somewhere warm enjoying the fruits of his labours.
 
Can they cut enough?
De-linking pensions from inflation perhaps but that won't make a dent
Defence they have committed to increase spending
Hs2 probably axed but that will be dwarfed by the increase in servicing debts
Education probably too unpopular to touch that
Nhs... political suicide to defund or sell
Welfare will be cut but hard to see how it's cut too much with rising inflation

Genuinely not sure how they would cut to the extent needed... probably 15%?

Well this is the thing, I don't see where tens of billions of cuts come from. To put it in context, at Osborne's first emergency budget in 2010, ushering in the austerity era, he essentially announced £75 billion of expenditure cuts. So we're talking about a significant fraction of austerity all over again. There just isn't any budget left that they can cut that won't be deeply unpopular with the electorate. Cut the recovery funding for pupils left behind by covid? Cut money to hospitals? Reduce pensions? And all in order to fund a tax cut for the rich (even though this isn't actually where all the money has gone, this is now the narrative)? At least Osborne could claim the money was going to shrink the deficit.

Bear in mind too they haven't even announced their supply side reforms. Cutting red tape isn't going to stimulate growth to the absurd levels needed to make the figures in the next OBR report look good to markets. They're going to have to make investments themselves to get things going, either by virtue of yet more tax cuts for businesses, as in their low tax havens zones, or by capital investments in things like transport and communications.
 
So are we saying Rishi Sunak was correct and the dumbasses in the conservative party should have voted him in, instead of liz truss?
 
Daniel Hannan, one of the key Conservative voices behind the push to leave the EU, wrote an article for the ConservativeHome website playing down market concerns about the £45bn package of (unfunded) tax cuts announced by chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

In the piece, which was published on Wednesday and immediately widely mocked online, Lord Hannan wrote:

What we have seen since Friday is partly a market adjustment to the increased probability that Sir Keir Starmer will win in 2024 or 2025 - leading to higher taxes, higher spending, and a weaker economy.

Some pundits don’t like Truss, others have never forgiven the Tories for Brexit, yet others are horrified by the idea that growth, rather than equality, should be the Government’s priority. Fair enough. But let’s be clear-headed about what is happening.
 
Daniel Hannan, one of the key Conservative voices behind the push to leave the EU, wrote an article for the ConservativeHome website playing down market concerns about the £45bn package of (unfunded) tax cuts announced by chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

In the piece, which was published on Wednesday and immediately widely mocked online, Lord Hannan wrote:

:lol:
 
Daniel Hannan, one of the key Conservative voices behind the push to leave the EU, wrote an article for the ConservativeHome website playing down market concerns about the £45bn package of (unfunded) tax cuts announced by chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

In the piece, which was published on Wednesday and immediately widely mocked online, Lord Hannan wrote:
Absolutely insane levels of cognitive dissonance.

Both the last Labour government and the next one are to blame for the current shitshow that has been 12 years in the making.
 
Daniel Hannan, one of the key Conservative voices behind the push to leave the EU, wrote an article for the ConservativeHome website playing down market concerns about the £45bn package of (unfunded) tax cuts announced by chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

In the piece, which was published on Wednesday and immediately widely mocked online, Lord Hannan wrote:

How do you blame the opposition (that from what I understand are not in power) for failure of current policy?

I'd laugh if the electorate didn't contain people who bought into this 'rationale'.
 
Daniel Hannan, one of the key Conservative voices behind the push to leave the EU, wrote an article for the ConservativeHome website playing down market concerns about the £45bn package of (unfunded) tax cuts announced by chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

In the piece, which was published on Wednesday and immediately widely mocked online, Lord Hannan wrote:

I always wonder with these pieces - do they actually believe it? Or are they knowingly trying to pull a fast one?
 
Well this is the thing, I don't see where tens of billions of cuts come from. To put it in context, at Osborne's first emergency budget in 2010, ushering in the austerity era, he essentially announced £75 billion of expenditure cuts. So we're talking about a significant fraction of austerity all over again. There just isn't any budget left that they can cut that won't be deeply unpopular with the electorate. Cut the recovery funding for pupils left behind by covid? Cut money to hospitals? Reduce pensions? And all in order to fund a tax cut for the rich (even though this isn't actually where all the money has gone, this is now the narrative)? At least Osborne could claim the money was going to shrink the deficit.

Bear in mind too they haven't even announced their supply side reforms. Cutting red tape isn't going to stimulate growth to the absurd levels needed to make the figures in the next OBR report look good to markets. They're going to have to make investments themselves to get things going, either by virtue of yet more tax cuts for businesses, as in their low tax havens zones, or by capital investments in things like transport and communications.
The quickest and most impactful thing they could do for growth forecasts is agree to a trade deal with the EU that involved a customs union, free movement and all the other things that will make the erg loose their mind so she can't even do that

Not sure they have the political capital to backtrack on the existing proposals without undermining themselves to the point of collapse

Not sure they have the ability to find the cuts which would be of a scale that would be politically suicide (though don't put itv past kamikwasi)

Not sure how much longer Liz truss can hide away but even coming out and scapegoating kwasi and sacking probably won't be enough to escape the fallout dragging her down with him

Basically in the words of a conservative mp... Liz truss is f*****
 
Daniel Hannan, one of the key Conservative voices behind the push to leave the EU, wrote an article for the ConservativeHome website playing down market concerns about the £45bn package of (unfunded) tax cuts announced by chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

In the piece, which was published on Wednesday and immediately widely mocked online, Lord Hannan wrote:
So a future Labour government is responsible for the pound tanking and the massive rise in the 10 year yield. Right nothing to see here then.
 
How do you blame the opposition (that from what I understand are not in power) for failure of current policy?

I'd laugh if the electorate didn't contain people who bought into this 'rationale'.
Thing is rags like the DM are reporting it as if it's a legitimate take.

And some senior Tories have been arguing that the fall in the Pound has actually been driven by alarm that Labour might soon be in government.

With Keir Starmer up to 17 points ahead in polls, former MEP Lord Hannan wrote on the ConservativeHome website: 'What we have seen since Friday is partly a market adjustment to the increased probability that Sir Keir Starmer will win in 2024 or 2025 – leading to higher taxes, higher spending, and a weaker economy.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...arteng-pleads-MPs-cool-heads-Pound-slump.html
 
I always wonder with these pieces - do they actually believe it? Or are they knowingly trying to pull a fast one?

They were always lying before but since Brexit the lies have gathered pace because they always need another lie to cover the previous one, it's snowballed and the government is now completely out of control. They can't think of enough lies fast enough. Problem is a large section of the electorate still believe them or want to believe them.
 

So basically reversing the decision to stop quantitative easing announced last Thursday. It's a real mess but I guess the BoE is trying to get on the front foot at least, after being so slow to react to inflation.
It will be an interesting few days coming up- BoE basically admitting the budget is fecking up the economy, so can Truss/Kwarteng reverse it without such a loss of face that their position becomes untenable or do they try and ride it out? Either course makes the UK look a shambles.
 
What Labour Town do you live in?

This is a big issue in some areas, it's one of Labours failings in the past, when they have had total control over Councils' they did very little to improve the lot of their local supporters and in some cases wasted resources*. Starmer must not let this happen again, it is, in part, what led to the red wall revolt
(* wasn't it in Tameside where they pulled down the relatively new Council Offices, still apparently not paid for, and then built a new Council complex in exactly the same place?)
 
Does printing more money really help though? Combined with borrowing for tax cuts, surely it only adds to the inflationary pressure?

Might ease short term gilt rates but it's just causing more long term pain.
 
Does printing more money really help though? Combined with borrowing for tax cuts, surely it only adds to the inflationary pressure?

Might ease short term gilt rates but it's just causing more long term pain.
Welcome to every government on earth. Finite time in office, focusing on short term issues and kicking the can down the road.
 
So basically reversing the decision to stop quantitative easing announced last Thursday. It's a real mess but I guess the BoE is trying to get on the front foot at least, after being so slow to react to inflation.
It will be an interesting few days coming up- BoE basically admitting the budget is fecking up the economy, so can Truss/Kwarteng reverse it without such a loss of face that their position becomes untenable or do they try and ride it out? Either course makes the UK look a shambles.
If the government picks a fight with the Bank of England and the OBR I'm pretty sure which side the IMF and markets are going to back.
 
the imf criticized the government. mortgage products being withdrawn. bank of england in limbo.

is this the worst mini budget of all time? not just because of its content but because of how far removed its content is from the reality? a government in crisis only a few real days after taking office because the country is being battered by the financial markets in ways it could absolutely have avoided.
 
Does printing more money really help though? Combined with borrowing for tax cuts, surely it only adds to the inflationary pressure?

Might ease short term gilt rates but it's just causing more long term pain.

The bond market is a more pressing concern. They've postponed tapering until the end of October. They need to get the market stabilised and then they can have another look at inflation.
 


You have to be a complete mug to buy this surely. Absolutely pitiful.

Remind me by the BBC are inviting IEA members on their programmes as experts again? It’s a fecking libertarian think tank.
 


You have to be a complete mug to buy this surely. Absolutely pitiful.


That'll be her sacked then :lol:

They know they're taking about debt before they do that interview so it always shocks me they don't have the charts ready. It's much needed context for the viewer.
 
If the government picks a fight with the Bank of England and the OBR I'm pretty sure which side the IMF and markets are going to back.

Neither. Nobody wins if that happens, investors will run a mile. Uncertainty is the worst possible thing for markets. The BOE have been shit under Bailey so I wouldn't expect anybody to blindly follow them anymore than they will the government.
 
This is a big issue in some areas, it's one of Labours failings in the past, when they have had total control over Councils' they did very little to improve the lot of their local supporters and in some cases wasted resources*. Starmer must not let this happen again, it is, in part, what led to the red wall revolt
(* wasn't it in Tameside where they pulled down the relatively new Council Offices, still apparently not paid for, and then built a new Council complex in exactly the same place?)
If by 'relatively new', you mean a 35 year old eyesore, yeah. But the new building is not just council offices. It's also a college, Library and shops. It was a phase of regeneration of that part of Ashton. Trouble is it went over budget when Carrilion went under halfway through construction. A lot of what they have spent money on around here has genuinely improved things, but the problem is they don't have enough cash to finish the job.
 
Pound's tanking again.

Dropping like a stone
11:49
Bankers hold crisis meeting with chancellor
Earlier we reported that Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng was due to meet with investment banks today in a bid to reassure the City about his economic plans.
A short time ago, JP Morgan's chief executive in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Viswas Raghavan, arrived at the Treasury for a meeting with Kwarteng.
Bank of America's international president Bernard Mensah was also seen arriving at the Treasury, where he gave reporters a quick smile but ignored all questions as he walked in.
The executives were later seen leaving through the front door of the Treasury.
They did not respond to any questions about what assurances had been offered by Kwarteng in the wake of the pound's slumping value.

hard to imagine its not related
 
even the white house has had a go at this budget. when's the last time that happened? 70s?
 
The bond market is a more pressing concern. They've postponed tapering until the end of October. They need to get the market stabilised and then they can have another look at inflation.

Fair but they've been so slow on inflation, interest rates are still only at 2.75% despite inflation having been 10% for what seems like a while now. Longer term inflationary pressure feels like an own-goal as it'll keep bond rates high regardless.