Westminster Politics

[Smores]

I think it'll cause a temporary bump as more first time buyers will suddenly have enough due to reduced up front costs.

0.3% increase in the long run as the OBR predicts sounds about right as you'll have more on high loan to value seeing less of a barrier to purchase.

Still house prices go up in unison more or less so not many benefit overall.

 

[Rado_N]

I meant the system of the personal tax allowance as a whole. A decade ago the allowance was for £5,225, In 2018, it'll be £11,850. Its the low income workers who benefit by this.

It's incremental though. It's £11,500 now so the increase next year will save people £70 in tax.

 

[villain]

Yep, there's the rub.

This regional breakdown is interesting- 1,100 of the 1,120, or 98.2%, properties for sale in Hull are sub-£300k- the highest in the country.

In London only 2,637, or 5.3% of the 49,733 properties for sale are under £300k- the lowest in the country.

There are properties in London for under £300k? They must be run-down.

I'm looking on the outskirts, Uxbridge/Richmond/Kingston area, so £300k was really the minimum amount I was likely to spend.

 

[Jippy]

There are properties in London for under £300k? They must be run-down.

I'm looking on the outskirts, Uxbridge/Richmond/Kingston area, so £300k was really the minimum amount I was likely to spend.

Would imagine they are absolute shoeboxes too. You're obviously still going to need a massive deposit too.

 

[villain]

Would imagine they are absolute shoeboxes too. You're obviously still going to need a massive deposit too.

Deposit wise i'm fine, thanks to my parents and a good paying job.
I'm just patiently waiting on the house prices to tumble down further, and a promotion/pay increase in the next year or so.

 

[11101]

Pleased about stamp duty, it's going to cost me about 1/3 of what it would have done before.

My only question is - this could potentially push house prices back up right?

They are talking about increasing supply as well as demand, in fact in the last few years numbers of new builds have risen quite significantly. I doubt it will make much difference long term, it's hardly going to flood the market with new buyers.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Holy mother... just looked up the price of apartments and houses in London as there's been a lot of rabble about Dublin getting as expensive, but it's nowhere close yet! Bought a lovely new 2 bed apartment in a good Dublin area for £320,000 this year and the London equivalent seems to be double that, minimum. Yikes, I thought we had it bad.

 

[esmufc07]

I meant the system of the personal tax allowance as a whole. A decade ago the allowance was for £5,225, In 2018, it'll be £11,850. Its the low income workers who benefit by this.

They've given them money in one hand with the increase in the tax threshold whilst simultaneously taking much more from the other.

Low income families have been hammered by this Tory Government for close to a decade.

 

[villain]

They are talking about increasing supply as well as demand, in fact in the last few years numbers of new builds have risen quite significantly. I doubt it will make much difference long term, it's hardly going to flood the market with new buyers.

Increasing supply is fine, but are they going to regulate who purchases the new houses?
There are lots of houses & apartments in London, however far too many of them are sub-let at extortionate prices, or left empty by foreign investors and such.
They can build as many houses as they want, but landlords have far too much control right now, and nothing will stop them purchasing more properties.

This is the real problem (imo) with the market in London, and I didn't see anything in the budget that addressed that.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Aren't you in London though? I bought a new house this year and am pleasantly surprised by the increase in values of houses within in the market within just the past 9 months.

Outer London, yes. And for the most part properties locally are reducing prices. A budget below 300,000 doesn't get you far even so, which is why the stamp duty reform won't be as revolutionary for first-time buyers here.

 

[villain]

Holy mother... just looked up the price of apartments and houses in London as there's been a lot of rabble about Dublin getting as expensive, but it's nowhere close yet! Bought a lovely new 2 bed apartment in a good Dublin area for £320,000 this year and the London equivalent seems to be double that, minimum. Yikes, I thought we had it bad.

£320k might get you a studio apartment in Deptford, if you haggle down from its original price of £350k

 

[Smores]

Oh great they massively cut stamp duty 5 months after i buy my first house.

Feck you Tories.

Don't know about you but I've just checked what i paid and feel sick

That horrible sinking feeling of losing money. I obviously haven't but that's how it feels. SAD

 

[FlawlessThaw]

Outer London, yes. And for the most part properties locally are reducing prices. A budget below 300,000 doesn't get you far even so, which is why the stamp duty reform won't be as revolutionary for first-time buyers here.

Well it will still have a major impact as you will only be paying stamp duty on anything above £300k, so if you purchase a place for £350k, previously you would have had to pay £7.5k now it is just £2.5k if my calculations are correct!

I personally feel just as sick as @Smores. But I disagree with you in expecting prices to come down, this will open up people who may have felt they had save an additional £5-10k on Stamp Duty which will be a lot less now.

 

[GloryHunter07]

Don't know about you but I've just checked what i paid and feel sick

That horrible sinking feeling of losing money. I obviously haven't but that's how it feels. SAD

I dont want to think about it tbh.

Maybe we can pressure them to back date the implementation?

 

[Jippy]

Deposit wise i'm fine, thanks to my parents and a good paying job.
I'm just patiently waiting on the house prices to tumble down further, and a promotion/pay increase in the next year or so.

That's good. I don't want my flat price tumble down further from a selfish perspective. Can't afford a three bed in W14 though.

All the reaction I'm getting re stamp duty is the saying the same tbh.

The headline grabber will be the Stamp Duty Land Tax exemption for first time buyers for properties up to £300,000 or the first £300,000 of properties up to £500,000. However, based on previous experience, this is unlikely to benefit first time buyers. The probability is that it will drive up demand and thus house prices and the winners will be those who sell the houses, not the first time buyers, who may pay more for their house because of the upward market pressure on prices.

 

[WackyWengerWorld]

Holy mother... just looked up the price of apartments and houses in London as there's been a lot of rabble about Dublin getting as expensive, but it's nowhere close yet! Bought a lovely new 2 bed apartment in a good Dublin area for £320,000 this year and the London equivalent seems to be double that, minimum. Yikes, I thought we had it bad.

Deary me. I've just moved to Nottingham's best school area spending 326k after much haggling and thought I was paying well over the odds for a large 4 bed detached in Nottingham, which was a low price for the area.

Anyone fancy buying a 3 bed detached with a conservatory and a detached garage in Bradford for 120k? Not sure what you'd get for 300k in our neck of the woods

 

[Mozza]

Surely the Chancellor of the exchequer shouldn't be surprised that adding demand to a market would cause prices to rise

 

[Ducklegs]

Deary me. I've just moved to Nottingham's best school area spending 326k after much haggling and thought I was paying well over the odds for a large 4 bed detached in Nottingham, which was a low price for the area.

Anyone fancy buying a 3 bed detached with a conservatory and a detached garage in Bradford for 120k? Not sure what you'd get for 300k in our neck of the woods

I could do, but feck living in Bradford.

I am down the road in Grantham, you could have got an even better school area and a bigger house and saved yourself quarter of a million pounds, with the benefit of not having to live in Nottingham.

In fact, you could have put your children through one of the most exclusive private schools in the country just down the road with the savings.

 

[FlawlessThaw]

As someone who's been checking the likes of Rightmove every day for the past six months, the idea of significant increases seems to run contrary to the ongoing trends locally. In fact, we wonder if an owner who refused one of our previous offers might call us this afternoon (before she feels pressured into lowering the asking price).

Did they call back?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Deary me. I've just moved to Nottingham's best school area spending 326k after much haggling and thought I was paying well over the odds for a large 4 bed detached in Nottingham, which was a low price for the area.

Anyone fancy buying a 3 bed detached with a conservatory and a detached garage in Bradford for 120k? Not sure what you'd get for 300k in our neck of the woods

Think Bradford is one of the cheapest areas to buy in England.

 

[finneh]

Underwhelming. The two main issues that needed tackling outside the housing issue was general wage stagnation (public and private sector) and the squeeze in terms of cost of living etc on younger people. Both of these issues could have been tackled using a tax cut in the form of a substantial increase to particularly the personal allowance, but also the 20% or 40% tax rates. As an employer I also wanted to see a much larger increase in the minimum wage - this should have been increased to £8 minimum which would force every company to pay a decent wage and would have reduced benefit payments in the process. This would have been a Conservative solution to some of the problems people are facing.

Instead we see a cut in stamp duty that firstly will only really affect Southerners, secondly will push already expensive housing even higher and thirdly addresses the symptom (high house prices) rather than the cause (limited housing). We also see wishy-washy comments regarding nurse salaries and vague (albeit welcome) rhetoric on housing.

The proof will be in the finer details in terms of housing investment as for too long we've heard words with no proper strategy

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Did they call back?

No, they did not. Although we wouldn't say yes at the old figure in any event: for not only is the local market stagnant, but she misled us previously. The dilemma is that so few houses are available in our criteria, so we hope nonetheless.

It would also have been nice if he'd have said something about the leasehold sector, where ground rent is being used as another sly earner by freeholders.

 

[Adisa]

Those growth figures are grim.

 

[Cheesy]

Those growth figures are grim.

Could worsen too depending on what trajectory we go with Brexit-wise.

 

[dumbo]

The gives to first time buyers through duty and help to buy may, just may, slightly help a few first timers in the short, but not before it helps support those with multiple properties. Prices aren't going to stay still, and demand stagnant waiting for each and every first timer. Enticing more onto the crowded ladder is all it does.

It's just further evidence that those who have give less than a feck about those that try to get. How many MPs are first time buyers or are renting?

 

[Kentonio]

As an employer I also wanted to see a much larger increase in the minimum wage - this should have been increased to £8 minimum which would force every company to pay a decent wage and would have reduced benefit payments in the process. This would have been a Conservative solution to some of the problems people are facing.

Shame they opposed the original minimum wage, given how conservative it supposedly is.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

The gives to first time buyers through duty and help to buy may, just may, slightly help a few first timers in the short, but not before it helps support those with multiple properties. Prices aren't going to stay still, and demand stagnant waiting for each and every first timer. Enticing more onto the crowded ladder is all it does.

It's just further evidence that those who have give less than a feck about those that try to get. How many MPs are first time buyers or are renting?

It will only help 3,500 people to buy homes who would not otherwise be able to according to the OBR. Their are links everywhere, but I like to use the telegraph one so that its not a partisan issue

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/22/land-bank-move-hits-housebuilders-shares/


Just a reminder to all hammond is a property developer, his trust owns a decent amount of land with planning for homes, and has done for the last 7 years. He has never built one home on it. The very thing he was complaining about yesterday.

 

[Cheesy]

A ton of MP's are landlords, from all sides. No doubt a lot of their policies are probably impacted as a result which is more than a tad frustrating.

 

[mitChley]

Holy mother... just looked up the price of apartments and houses in London as there's been a lot of rabble about Dublin getting as expensive, but it's nowhere close yet! Bought a lovely new 2 bed apartment in a good Dublin area for £320,000 this year and the London equivalent seems to be double that, minimum. Yikes, I thought we had it bad.

It's madness. I was in Crouch End visiting a friend over the summer. The owner of the terrace house next door had passed away and left it to his daughter. She was splitting this (not massive) house into 3 flats and selling for £500k each. We bought a cracking 4bed Semi in a nice part of Sheffield for £230k this year, the market is bonkers.

 

[Cheesy]

It's madness. I was in Crouch End visiting a friend over the summer. The owner of the terrace house next door had passed away and left it to his daughter. She was splitting this (not massive) house into 3 flats and selling for £500k each. We bought a cracking 4bed Semi in a nice part of Sheffield for £230k this year, the market is bonkers.

For what it's worth I'd imagine earnings in London are a lot higher on average than elsewhere due to the fact it's the capital and all, but aye, still rather extortionate.

 

[Abizzz]

While i'm truly no supporter of this tory government it has to be said: Any help they offer first time homeowners will result in an uptick in demand (and prices), there's literally no winning for them, if they don't do anything people will (correctly) say younger generations are priced out of the market, if they do do something it will affect the market. Catch 22 really.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

While i'm truly no supporter of this tory government it has to be said: Any help they offer first time homeowners will result in an uptick in demand (and prices), there's literally no winning for them, if they don't do anything people will (correctly) say younger generations are priced out of the market, if they do do something it will affect the market. Catch 22 really.

Not true.

If you concentrate solely on demand prices will rise. However, if that demand side assistance is done in partnership with solving supply side issues, that is, building a lot more houses people can actually afford, the potential for price rises are mitigated.

That they only do demand, ignoring supply, is not an accident. They know what it will do. That is precisely why they are doing it.

 

[Abizzz]

Not true.

If you concentrate solely on demand prices will rise. However, if that demand side assistance is done in partnership with solving supply side issues, that is, building a lot more houses people can actually afford, the potential for price rises are mitigated.

That they only do demand, ignoring supply, is not an accident. They know what it will do. That is precisely why they are doing it.

While I don't disagree in principal I do think increasing supply is a whole lot more complicated given all the stakeholders involved. Nobody wants to see green belts go, no one wants huge new suburbia and no one wants large scale gentrification. Obviously this will need to be tackled some day, but given the current pressing issues this government faces I still think this is better than doing nothing. (I might well be wrong though).

 

[Silva]

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2017/11/Budget-response.pdf

tldr: The rich get richer, the poor get poorer.

 

[711]

Some geezer on tv just said the difference between paying house purchase duty and paying a higher purchase price is that you eventually get the higher purchase price back when you sell, so it's ok. He didn't consider another difference, that the duty could be passed on to local authorities to build housing and increase supply.

 

[Silva]

To answer earlier questions about the forecasts and Brexit, it looks like the OBR knows as little as we do about the outcomes and basically guessed it.

https://www.fundstrategy.co.uk/government-refuses-obr-information-brexit/

 

[finneh]

Shame they opposed the original minimum wage, given how conservative it supposedly is.

Cutting tax is the Conservative solution. A solution that millions are crying out for at the moment and the government on the whole are strangely averse to - which in my view explains the last election result. It's a bizarre as cutting taxes is the ultimate combat to the Corbyn offer. Why reduce student fee's when you can just give them more of the money they earn, allowing them to pay off their student fee's in a cost neutral manner (whilst at the same time not discriminating against the working classes that tend not to go to University). Why increase the salaries of public sector workers, just to take a large portion back again through taxes.

I'm always torn on minimum wages as truthfully market forces (of course with some regulation) are absolutely fine at self determining salaries in normal situations. However once in work benefits were introduced the whole system became somewhat broken. Usually with the amount of employment we apparently have in this country, the minimum wage is completely academic as the competitiveness of industry means you have to pay above this to retain staff. However we are living in strange times whereby the supply of staff seems is abundant, despite unemployment being at an all time low. Historically with such low unemployment my lowest paid staff would be giving ultimatums at the moment and I'd either pay up or let them go elsewhere for a larger salary. However the last few years replacing staff on £8 per hour is exceptionally easy, which makes me question the definition of unemployment. Naturally the UKIP crew would say that the almost unlimited supply of cheaper labour from abroad means supply is never a problem, causing no appetite for increasing salaries. I imagine there is truth to this, albeit exaggerated.

I generally don't believe Government should be more than a referee when it comes to business and the artificial manipulation of salaries is over-stepping that mark. However if we accept a situation where Government have agreed to pay people additional monies despite them being in work, we have to accept that companies will take advantage of that and use the Government to top up salaries. Therefore at least an £8 minimum salary would be a solution. Essentially using undesirable policy to fix undesirable policy.

 

[Silva]

Historically with such low unemployment my lowest paid staff would be giving ultimatums at the moment and I'd either pay up or let them go elsewhere for a larger salary. However the last few years replacing staff on £8 per hour is exceptionally easy, which makes me question the definition of unemployment.

There's almost 5 million self employed people in the UK (ONS 2016 stat). And while there's nothing inherently bad about being self employed, it can hide significant numbers of the underemployed from official stats. There are also almost a million on zero hours contracts (ONS 2017 stat), and any minimum wage gig with consistent hours is a better option where they find it. When you add the underemployed and the unemployed, there's a lot more competition for work than at first glance, albeit varying city from city.

 

[711]

There's almost 5 million self employed people in the UK (ONS 2016 stat). And while there's nothing inherently bad about being self employed, it can hide significant numbers of the underemployed from official stats. There are also almost a million on zero hours contracts (ONS 2017 stat), and any minimum wage gig with consistent hours is a better option where they find it. When you add the underemployed and the unemployed, there's a lot more competition for work than at first glance, albeit varying city from city.

Plus the many more with part-time jobs, often several of them, who spend half their time travelling unpaid from one to another so their hourly rate in terms of cash in the pocket for hours working/waiting between/travelling is much less than minimum. Any job offering more hours will be seized upon.

I'd expect an employer of minimum wage staff to know these things to be honest.

 

[Dobba]

Looking forward to Nick Robinson's excuse already.