Westminster Politics

[11101]

Forget the rosette (they don't deserve to wear any), what should the UK government be doing in your opinion? If the Tories won the last election, what would they be doing right now?

A government with a massive majority had the freedom to overhaul the economy sapping regulation and tax regimes. Cut corporation tax and VAT, and fix business rates. Simplify tax codes, increase income tax a percentage or two and ditch Net Zero. Build HS2, expand Heathrow, widen roads, approve new power generation infrastructure. Transport and energy are amongst the best things you can invest in to grow an economy.

There were many, many things that could have been done but instead they wasted the opportunity of a lifetime on a few empty giveaways to their mates.

God knows what the Tories would be doing but it could not be any worse than the current lot. This is a new low.

It's interesting how much blame you put on Labour for the aftermath of the 08 crash but Brexit, which surely has to go down as one of the most spectacular acts of self sabotage by any country in recent history, is waved away as "we decided to have a referendum", and not as something the Tories should be blamed for.

I think I've always been clear Brexit was going to be a disaster, has been a disaster, and Cameron and all involved should never be allowed to forget it.

 

[Maticmaker]

Well that's exactly my point. They're saying words and following up with either no action or actions that actively work against their goals.

I'd like to see them try things out like temporarily reducing VAT on things like restaurant meals and alcohol in pubs, to help the hospitality industry, getting people out and using them rather than watching it all collapse like a house of cards, shrinking the economy further still.

Or maybe announcing schemes that aren't pure fantasy like AI centres and untested SMR nuclear power stations and carbon capture. They could be plowing that pledged money into domestic energy conservation schemes, employing local contractors. Or building some social housing so that councils have assets and financial security rather than getting fleeced by private landlords for decades to come.

Reducing VAT might give a temporary blip, but if large swathes of people have no money to spend on 'eating out' then it wont last long and wont help the economy to grow.

AI centres and SMR nuclear power stations are not a dream, they are a necessity in their own right and a longer term boost for the economy, i.e. not just to survive , but to grow it.

Housing is a big issue, the building of, the insulation of, and the sites to be used; however, this is best done from a standing start and whether we like it or not that is where we start. Workers need to be found, trained etc. in both traditional and new build techniques, the best energy conservation is built into houses/offices etc. during their construction, not when they are already finished; 'after thought' conservation is tampering at the best and cost more than it saves, at worst.

One of your local MPs (Ashton-u-lyne) is the deputy PM and is beginning to make it clear how far she is prepared to go to release land, change planning rules, take back control by the state in building affordable social housing, its the first 'notch on the dial' and will need nerves of steel by the government just to get things moving.
This I agree has to start within 2 years, the former Construction Industry Training Boards (or derivatives of), with their levy arrangements will be needed in order to hit the ground running.

 

[Red in STL]

Reducing VAT might give a temporary blip, but if large swathes of people have no money to spend on 'eating out' then it wont last long and wont help the economy to grow.

AI centres and SMR nuclear power stations are not a dream, they are a necessity in their own right and a longer term boost for the economy, i.e. not just to survive , but to grow it.

Housing is a big issue, the building of, the insulation of, and the sites to be used; however, this is best done from a standing start and whether we like it or not that is where we start. Workers need to be found, trained etc. in both traditional and new build techniques, the best energy conservation is built into houses/offices etc. during their construction, not when they are already finished; 'after thought' conservation is tampering at the best and cost more than it saves, at worst.

One of your local MPs (Ashton-u-lyne) is the deputy PM and is beginning to make it clear how far she is prepared to go to release land, change planning rules, take back control by the state in building affordable social housing, its the first 'notch on the dial' and will need nerves of steel by the government just to get things moving.
This I agree has to start within 2 years, the former Construction Industry Training Boards (or derivatives of), with their levy arrangements will be needed in order to hit the ground running.

Housing is the biggest issue, and solving the main issue of affordability solves issues like the hospitality sector by simply giving people more disposable income to spend on 'non-essentials' - given the workers needed I do think they'll need to import some Poles etc though

 

[ivaldo]

Who cares what the shadow cabinet says they'll do? We all know both sides in opposition say anything they think will get a soundbite.

Austerity worked very well post recession and any economic indicator you choose will show that. We left the last Labour government with massively inflated public spending commitments and it was imperative that was brought back under control. As you mention Germany, from mid 2011 UK GDP growth outstripped Germany in 13 of the next 17 quarters.

So now we don't care what happens globally, or what would've happened under different leadership, because it makes it more difficult to pin the blame on Labour?

It would also be important to note in the 6 years preceding Brexit, Germany's GDP grew at a faster average rate than it did in the UK. In that time, they still managed spend an average of €60b a year more on their health services, and astonishingly, reduced their debt ratio by 13 points. The UK under the Conservatives? It went up by 10 points...

So to summarise:

Germany grew faster than the UK
Spent more on public services
Reduced their national debt ratio, while the UKs increased.

Germany, the US, Australia, China, Poland, Sweden, Canada, all used stimulus packages and saw great results. The UK, Italy, Spain and Portugal however...

It's like you're just hoping we can't be arsed to look at all the available data.

Edit: Just to expand on this further, I thought I would give you the benefit of doubt, and try to see it from your perspective, to see if I could find anyone unaffiliated with right wing politics who shared your views. I'm really struggling here. Can you lend a hand? Almost all well respected economists, like Krugman and Stiglitz were, shall we say, less than complimentary of the Conservatives approach.

 

[decorativeed]

AI centres and SMR nuclear power stations are not a dream, they are a necessity in their own right and a longer term boost for the economy, i.e. not just to survive , but to grow it.

They are in so much as the fact that nobody is using them, despite being talked about for a couple of decades now, they will be opposed by anyone within a 100 mile radius and will - if they are ever green-lit - take a decade or more to come online. And AI centres will achieve what for us, exactly? Other than consuming vast amounts of energy and water while replacing people's jobs at the same time? What's the goal with, it other than being a buzzword for ministers too incompetant to ask what it's for and how it will actually benefit any of us.

 

[Bert_]

A government with a massive majority had the freedom to overhaul the economy sapping regulation and tax regimes. Cut corporation tax and VAT, and fix business rates. Simplify tax codes, increase income tax a percentage or two and ditch Net Zero. Build HS2, expand Heathrow, widen roads, approve new power generation infrastructure. Transport and energy are amongst the best things you can invest in to grow an economy.

There were many, many things that could have been done but instead they wasted the opportunity of a lifetime on a few empty giveaways to their mates.

God knows what the Tories would be doing but it could not be any worse than the current lot. This is a new low.

Corporation tax has already been slashed over the past 15 years. The Tories put up by 5% after the Truss disaster because they'd already cut it to the bone and had to backtrack on their long term policy when they had to deal with inflation for the first time since taking power. Even after that it's still 5% lower than it was when they took over. Cutting it further and passing the burden on to PAYE tax payers is ridiculously regressive.

If you want infrastructure spending for projects like HS2 and extra runways then where is that money coming from if you're cutting corp tax, vat etc? I assume your not a fan of government borrowing, so it would mostly fall on income tax receipts. So not just shifting all the current burden onto workers, but actively increasing it.

Simplifying tax codes and business rates should be addressed. Bigger priorities need addressing first. Which this government is not doing.

On regulations - which ones need sapping?

 

[Jericholyte2]

Who cares what the shadow cabinet says they'll do? We all know both sides in opposition say anything they think will get a soundbite.

Austerity worked very well post recession and any economic indicator you choose will show that. We left the last Labour government with massively inflated public spending commitments and it was imperative that was brought back under control. As you mention Germany, from mid 2011 UK GDP growth outstripped Germany in 13 of the next 17 quarters.

I hate myself for responding to this because your history shows how you’ll respond, but this is the biggest load of bollocks I’ve ever read!

‘Every economic indicator’ shows austerity was a good thing - let’s take a look growth, GDP, GDP per capita, government debt. All stagnated / got worse because of austerity. Massive public spending cuts, gutting the safety net that a generation of people relied on, and debt went UP, work that one out!!!

Brown and Darling got a framework together for both the US and EU to follow, and then he lost the election based on lies that you repeat on hear every time you show up! They used these frameworks, we didn’t, and look what happened. Results are here for you to see in EVERY sector, in EVERY city, everyone is on their proverbial knees, sclerotic and broken to the core.

Also, 13/17 quarters from 2011 takes us right up until 2016, good job nothing else happened then to make things even worse.

But yeah, keep spouting BS about selling gold or some shit.

 

[11101]

So now we don't care what happens globally, or what would've happened under different leadership, because it makes it more difficult to pin the blame on Labour?

It would also be important to note in the 6 years preceding Brexit, Germany's GDP grew at a faster average rate than it did in the UK. In that time, they still managed spend an average of €60b a year more on their health services, and astonishingly, reduced their debt ratio by 13 points. The UK under the Conservatives? It went up by 10 points...

So to summarise:

Germany grew faster than the UK
Spent more on public services
Reduced their national debt ratio, while the UKs increased.

Germany, the US, Australia, China, Poland, Sweden, Canada, all used stimulus packages and saw great results. The UK, Italy, Spain and Portugal however...

It's like you're just hoping we can't be arsed to look at all the available data.

Edit: Just to expand on this further, I thought I would give you the benefit of doubt, and try to see it from your perspective, to see if I could find anyone unaffiliated with right wing politics who shared your views. I'm really struggling here. Can you lend a hand? Almost all well respected economists, like Krugman and Stiglitz were, shall we say, less than complimentary of the Conservatives approach.

Here are the figures. You can clearly see UK GDP growth comfortably outstrips Germany during the 2011-2016 time period.





You seem unable to separate the pre and post 2016 Tories. Before Brexit the Tories were doing a very good job as all data shows. GDP, deficit, whatever you choose. All were improving post 2010.

 

[11101]

Corporation tax has already been slashed over the past 15 years. The Tories put up by 5% after the Truss disaster because they'd already cut it to the bone and had to backtrack on their long term policy when they had to deal with inflation for the first time since taking power. Even after that it's still 5% lower than it was when they took over. Cutting it further and passing the burden on to PAYE tax payers is ridiculously regressive.

If you want infrastructure spending for projects like HS2 and extra runways then where is that money coming from if you're cutting corp tax, vat etc? I assume your not a fan of government borrowing, so it would mostly fall on income tax receipts. So not just shifting all the current burden onto workers, but actively increasing it.

Simplifying tax codes and business rates should be addressed. Bigger priorities need addressing first. Which this government is not doing.

On regulations - which ones need sapping?

We have a simple problem with a complex solution. It's too difficult to get anything done in this country and there is little financial incentive to do it.

How do we get things done? Since 2000 the tax regulation word count has roughly doubled, as have others. The answer to that one is easy. Tell the NIMBYs to feck off and start building stuff again.

The more difficult one is how to incentivise it all. Raising taxes reduces tax receipts, the Laffer Curve is a concept the left never seems to understand. Business drives growth, not individuals, so every incentive needs to be given to get them doing that and there is a tight link between the best performing economies and low business taxation. You can fund those business tax cuts from borrowing or individual taxes, ideally a bit of both. To balance the books it's a trade off worth making as the reward will be economic growth that benefits everybody.

Your other option would be to divert that extra revenue from the private sector towards government projects. Less efficient maybe, but still a positive. Build new roads, railways, power plants, data centres and other useful infrastructure. Don't, whatever you do, just give it to segments of your voter base as handouts.

 

[decorativeed]

Don't, whatever you do, just give it to segments of your voter base as handouts.

You've said this a few times, but I'm still struggling to know what you're referring to.

 

[Bert_]

We have a simple problem with a complex solution. It's too difficult to get anything done in this country and there is little financial incentive to do it.

How do we get things done? Since 2000 the tax regulation word count has roughly doubled, as have others. The answer to that one is easy. Tell the NIMBYs to feck off and start building stuff again.

The more difficult one is how to incentivise it all. Raising taxes reduces tax receipts, the Laffer Curve is a concept the left never seems to understand. Business drives growth, not individuals, so every incentive needs to be given to get them doing that and there is a tight link between the best performing economies and low business taxation. You can fund those business tax cuts from borrowing or individual taxes, ideally a bit of both. To balance the books it's a trade off worth making as the reward will be economic growth that benefits everybody.

Your other option would be to divert that extra revenue from the private sector towards government projects. Less efficient maybe, but still a positive. Build new roads, railways, power plants, data centres and other useful infrastructure. Don't, whatever you do, just give it to segments of your voter base as handouts.

Singapore on the Thames then

Here are the figures. You can clearly see UK GDP growth comfortably outstrips Germany during the 2011-2016 time period.





You seem unable to separate the pre and post 2016 Tories. Before Brexit the Tories were doing a very good job as all data shows. GDP, deficit, whatever you choose. All were improving post 2010.

Who cares what Germany do?

Have a play around with this..
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/GBR

Winning the GDP league means feck all in real life.

 

[ivaldo]

Here are the figures. You can clearly see UK GDP growth comfortably outstrips Germany during the 2011-2016 time period.





You seem unable to separate the pre and post 2016 Tories. Before Brexit the Tories were doing a very good job as all data shows. GDP, deficit, whatever you choose. All were improving post 2010.

You sure about that?

And here's GDP per capita:

And wage growth

The BOE interest rates stayed below 0.75% for over a decade (the first time this has happened in over 300 years). This has coupled unhealthy asset appreciation with wage stagnation, giving us a generational wealth gap that has ruined the prospects of working age families.

But we can quibble all we like. Paul Krugman wrote a superb long read a few years back that really hits home how terrible austerity has been for the UK. Give it a read.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion

 

[11101]

You sure about that?

And here's GDP per capita:

And wage growth

The BOE interest rates stayed below 0.75% for over a decade (the first time this has happened in over 300 years). This has coupled unhealthy asset appreciation with wage stagnation, giving us a generational wealth gap that has ruined the prospects of working age families.

But we can quibble all we like. Paul Krugman wrote a superb long read a few years back that really hits home how terrible austerity has been for the UK. Give it a read.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion

Yeah, pretty sure the Treasury know what theyre talking about thanks. If your argument otherwise is that of a famously liberal economist writing for what's fast becoming a parody newspaper its best we leave it here.

For the final time in that period of austerity the UK economy grew faster than our European peers. Our only mistake was continuing it for far too long.

 

[Jericholyte2]

Yeah, pretty sure the Treasury know what theyre talking about thanks. If your argument otherwise is that of a famously liberal economist writing for what's fast becoming a parody newspaper its best we leave it here.

For the final time in that period of austerity the UK economy grew faster than our European peers. Our only mistake was continuing it for far too long.

Incredible!

A point is made by a world-renowned economist, but he’s a liberal so it doesn’t count! Also conveniently ignoring the fact that his article was from 2015, killing your ‘fast becoming a parody newspaper’ argument.

I wonder what you’d class as a non-parody newspaper?

 

[ivaldo]

Yeah, pretty sure the Treasury know what theyre talking about thanks. If your argument otherwise is that of a famously liberal economist writing for what's fast becoming a parody newspaper its best we leave it here.

For the final time in that period of austerity the UK economy grew faster than our European peers. Our only mistake was continuing it for far too long.

When you're denouncing a Nobel prize winning economist because he wrote an article in the Guardian, you aren't interested in conversation. If you bothered to read the article, you would have seen he has referenced the supposed champions of austerity at the time, who have all since distanced themselves from what is largely seen as a catastrophic move. This includes the OBR, who admitted they massively underestimated the negative impact of growth caused by austerity. And the IMF (who I see you have no issue quoting yourself) whose own study in 2016 concluded Osborne's approach caused slower growth. I'd link you, but I know you won't read it.

There's a clear distinction between countries that used stimulus packages and those that used austerity as demonstrated in my nice, easy to understand graph above. You want to ignore the US, China etc because the comparison doesn't look good. You also want to ignore that many of the countries you choose to compare us to, went about austerity in a very different way. They closed deficits not by cutting public sector spending, but by raising taxes, the results of which are there for all to see.

 

[decorativeed]

Yeah, pretty sure the Treasury know what theyre talking about thanks. If your argument otherwise is that of a famously liberal economist writing for what's fast becoming a parody newspaper its best we leave it here.

For the final time in that period of austerity the UK economy grew faster than our European peers. Our only mistake was continuing it for far too long.

Yeah, good point - better to trust a government Twitter account cheerleading for the flailing, crisis-ridden party who ran it while the whole country was calling for an early election to boot them out - than a well-written 2000 word article by a prize-winning economist. Because it appeared (10 years ago) in a newspaper (pretty much the only one not run by a non-dom billionaire) that's becoming a parody, apparently.

Excellent critical thinking.

 

[WPMUFC]

Are we back to using this thread? What's going on with the 2024-2029 one?

 

[Jericholyte2]

Are we back to using this thread? What's going on with the 2024-2029 one?

The binary one hijacked this to have another go at Brown, Darling, and many other people not responsible for the ‘08 crash, blaming them for the ‘08 crash and all of the I’ll throughout the Tories’s 14yrs in power.

 

[decorativeed]

The binary one hijacked this to have another go at Brown, Darling, and many other people not responsible for the ‘08 crash, blaming them for the ‘08 crash and all of the I’ll throughout the Tories’s 14yrs in power.

And a lot of us didn't even notice it was in the old thread, by the looks of things. I certainly didn't. But then again, the current government are just a continuation of the old one, so maybe we were being far too optimistic creating the new thread.

 

[Frosty]

@Raoul @Wibble Quite a few of us have ended up posting in this old thread without realising it. Any chance you can move the last few pages into the 24-29 thread and shut this one to avoid duplication?