Westminster Politics 2024-2029

The goldilocks economic scenario would be nominal house price growth of 1%, inflation of 2%, and nominal wage growth of 3%.

That would mean that house price affordability would improve gradually over time as wages and inflation reduce the real cost of housing, without the nominal value falling for existing homeowners. Effectively you slowly inflate away the excessive cost of houses.
Thank you, that makes sense, bassically create a fiscal drag in real terms where people arent technically being upside down on their mortgage but due to inflation and wage growth people without will be able to better afford them.
 
Other than the Brylcreem'd knight of the realm himself doing it at every single leadership hustings, which doesn't count, presumably?

I assume you are referring to your take on the leadership pledges and your perception but this is the 2024-2029 thread and a quick glance back at the old thread shows that people on the Corbyn side of the party had long been disillusioned. I think it's better we don't let this one go the same way, so I'll specify that I am talking about in the general election campaign and more generalised run-up to the election. In 2024 has anyone been under any illusion that Starmer was aiming for 'competent Corbyn'?
 
Totally agree with what you've said, but what is the actual real world impact of the bolded? because the reality is most people who are buying mortgages arent "stretching beyond what they were able to afford" their monthly payments are more than affordable and still less than renting, they arent going to be thrown out on the street but they are being stuck with a depreciating asset that is going to lock them out of moving home ever and will in all likelyhood feck over their future financial prospects because the system has told them for their entire lives they need to own a home as part of owning a home is that its an asset with a resale value hence the "housing ladder" in addition to it being cheaper than renting overall.
I appreciate that it means for many people they'll be stuck in their own home, and that's shit if they are unable to upgrade. But the alternative is others not even getting that chance.

I'd hope that there would be some form of relief provided to existing homeowners that counters their loss of house value. I'm not sure how it could be implemented but you're absolutely correct that existing owners shouldn't be fecked over. Nobody should be (expect Tories or people who wear sunglasses indoors, obviously)
 
A decent Government would start a massive programme of building social housing. They would even borrow to fund it because it's a very clear and obvious investment where you are left with valuable assets at the end. It will also be a good economic boost to the building industry. The future rents from social housing also boost local Government funding.
 
I assume you are referring to your take on the leadership pledges and your perception but this is the 2024-2029 thread and a quick glance back at the old thread shows that people on the Corbyn side of the party had long been disillusioned. I think it's better we don't let this one go the same way, so I'll specify that I am talking about in the general election campaign and more generalised run-up to the election. In 2024 has anyone been under any illusion that Starmer was aiming for 'competent Corbyn'?
'I can't defend those comments, so lets pretend they didn't happen'
 
A decent Government would start a massive programme of building social housing. They would even borrow to fund it because it's a very clear and obvious investment where you are left with valuable assets at the end. It will also be a good economic boost to the building industry. The future rents from social housing also boost local Government funding.


I think they need to shift those fiscal rules soon. This is as clear a case of borrowing to invest as it's possible to see.
 
There is no way this would happen. It would be seen as punishing people for investing or being successful. How would this be even managed, would you have a blanket ban on owning a second property?

Councils are increasing council tax for second owned properties to gain some more income. There should certainly be bigger charges for properties left derelict or empty for long periods of time.

Yeah but this is dumb because the extra cost just gets passed onto renters indirectly rather than the landlord in the form of increased rent.

My ideal situation would be that all landlord income has to be submitted to an independent body that ensures anything above a certain yield% is passed back onto tenants or has to be invested back into the property. This way allows some profit and doesn't demonise investment but also makes it a less one-sided dynamic and promotes responsible landlordism.
 
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Yeah but this is dumb because the extra cost just gets passed onto renters indirectly rather than the landlord in the form of increased rent.

My ideal situation would be that all landlord income has to be submitted to an independent body that ensures anything above a certain yield% is passed back onto tenants or has to be invested back into the property. This way allows some profit and doesn't demonise investment but also makes it a less one-sided dynamic and promotes responsible landlordism.

If the property is rented out then its not classed as a second home and the council tax is the normal price for the renters. The elevated council tax only applies to empty homes. The government needs to stop going after landlords and realise the rental market is a necessity; recent anti-landlord policies are directly responsible for the insane rental market we see now.

The change I most expect to see is a rebanding of the G and H houses and a subsequent punitive tax on them because they're the easy target.
 
Always find it annoying how politicians pretend they only get to see our finances the first day they come into office. They think so little of the public when they pull this shit.

I wonder when the first U-turn will be, anyone think we'll make a month before they break a manifesto policy?

I kind of agree but isn’t that exactly what they’ve been doing for the past year +? And rowed back on multiple pledges for exactly that reason?

I don’t think they’ve been very shy to be fair in declaring the economy in the shit, even before.
 
I assume you are referring to your take on the leadership pledges and your perception but this is the 2024-2029 thread and a quick glance back at the old thread shows that people on the Corbyn side of the party had long been disillusioned. I think it's better we don't let this one go the same way, so I'll specify that I am talking about in the general election campaign and more generalised run-up to the election. In 2024 has anyone been under any illusion that Starmer was aiming for 'competent Corbyn'?

It's pretty strange to specify that you're asking for examples of something no one claimed. The comment you quoted was very clear: competent Corbynism was the leadership bid, Tories are incompetent was the message after leadership was won.
 
If you ban owning second homes does that mean that everyone has to immediately sell them? What effect does that have on everybody's property values and the economy in general? Chaos, I reckon.
How about we just ban the future sale of second or third homes? Or put in rent control where rent can't be more than 5% of a mortgage repayment on houses purchased as buy to lets?
 
Anyone that ever says ‘We need private landlords’ is either protecting their own interests, lacking imagination, or just plain stupid.

It’s dogma. Full on emperors new clothes stuff.

Saying “But making a new system would be so hard” is toddler behaviour. Yes it would be painful but it would benefit all. The economic reality is that we need very few private landlords and those that are necessary, should never be in the hands of people that have renters buying the house for them.

Honestly, I get it. You all like that you get to do close to nothing while a poorer person buys you a fecking building. But please stop and interrogate that sentence.

Somebody else. Buys something for you.

fecking housecats.
 

Voter ID rule may have stopped 400,000 taking part in UK election, poll suggests

Exclusive: 3.2% of those surveyed say they were turned away at least once, with minority ethnic people worse-affected

More than 400,000 people could have been prevented from voting in the general election because they lacked the necessary ID, with those from minority ethnic communities more than twice as likely to have experienced this, polling has suggested.

Of those surveyed by More In Common, 3.2% said they had been turned away at least once last Thursday, which if reflected across the UK would equate to more than 850,000 people. Of these, more than half said they either did not return, or came back and were still unable to vote.


Among people turned away at least once, about a third had ID that was not on the relatively narrow list of permitted documents; about a quarter said the name on their ID was different to that on the electoral register; and 12% said they were told the picture on the ID did not match their appearance.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...0000-taking-part-in-uk-election-poll-suggests

This needs changing urgently.
 
In many ways, it’s a source of comfort that these people don’t actually exist.
 
How about we just ban the future sale of second or third homes? Or put in rent control where rent can't be more than 5% of a mortgage repayment on houses purchased as buy to lets?


I think there is definitely an argument for rent controls and putting an end to making prospective renters compete against each other to benefit landlords
 
Anyone that ever says ‘We need private landlords’ is either protecting their own interests, lacking imagination, or just plain stupid.

It’s dogma. Full on emperors new clothes stuff.

Saying “But making a new system would be so hard” is toddler behaviour. Yes it would be painful but it would benefit all. The economic reality is that we need very few private landlords and those that are necessary, should never be in the hands of people that have renters buying the house for them.

Honestly, I get it. You all like that you get to do close to nothing while a poorer person buys you a fecking building. But please stop and interrogate that sentence.

Somebody else. Buys something for you.

fecking housecats.


What do you propose for people who don't want to own their own home and prefer to rent?
 
I think there is definitely an argument for rent controls and putting an end to making prospective renters compete against each other to benefit landlords
Rent controls never work. In fact, they invariably make the problem worse. This is pretty well understood in the economics literature.

Sadly, there is no way to regulate your way out of a supply/demand mismatch. You just need to roll up your sleeves and build more homes.
 

Voter ID rule may have stopped 400,000 taking part in UK election, poll suggests

Exclusive: 3.2% of those surveyed say they were turned away at least once, with minority ethnic people worse-affected

More than 400,000 people could have been prevented from voting in the general election because they lacked the necessary ID, with those from minority ethnic communities more than twice as likely to have experienced this, polling has suggested.

Of those surveyed by More In Common, 3.2% said they had been turned away at least once last Thursday, which if reflected across the UK would equate to more than 850,000 people. Of these, more than half said they either did not return, or came back and were still unable to vote.


Among people turned away at least once, about a third had ID that was not on the relatively narrow list of permitted documents; about a quarter said the name on their ID was different to that on the electoral register; and 12% said they were told the picture on the ID did not match their appearance.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...0000-taking-part-in-uk-election-poll-suggests

This needs changing urgently.

Or you could just do postal voting.
 
Rent controls never work. In fact, they invariably make the problem worse. This is pretty well understood in the economics literature.

Sadly, there is no way to regulate your way out of a supply/demand mismatch. You just need to roll up your sleeves and build more homes.


Hasn't it worked in NYC? Admittedly I don't know that much about it but it's been in place there for a long time and people seem to benefit from that.
 
Hasn't it worked in NYC? Admittedly I don't know that much about it but it's been in place there for a long time and people seem to benefit from that.
The way it typically works is to benefit the existing tenants who pay artificially low rents. But it creates an undesirable lock-in effect and causes much higher rents for properties not under rent control as everyone else must compete for the fewer remaining apartments.

The bigger issue is that you almost always see new building plummet as the return on capital from suppressed rental income doesn’t justify the construction costs. This obviously makes supply shortages worse and worse over time.
 
The way it typically works is to benefit the existing tenants who pay artificially low rents. But it creates an undesirable lock-in effect and causes much higher rents for properties not under rent control as everyone else must compete for the fewer remaining apartments.

The bigger issue is that you almost always see new building plummet as the return on capital from suppressed rental income doesn’t justify the construction costs. This obviously makes supply shortages worse and worse over time.


Fair enough, I'd certainly prefer to choose the solution that is driven by the market but I've heard about landlords in London being able to effectively auction their properties to the highest bidders due to supply and demand, and that should certainly be controlled.
 
What do you propose for people who don't want to own their own home and prefer to rent?

1. Masses of social housing.
2. A sensible number of private rental properties. As mentioned.

Number 2 needs to be operational within a real market. Not an artificially created one. We simply don’t need house prices to double/triple/quintuple in value at pace.

If people that want to buy, can’t. And if rental costs are anywhere near mortgaged costs, the market is wrong and incorrectly shaped/legislated/regulated.

It’s an easy problem. Not a hard one.
 
1. Masses of social housing.
2. A sensible number of private rental properties. As mentioned.

Number 2 needs to be operational within a real market. Not an artificially created one. We simply don’t need house prices to double/triple/quintuple in value at pace.

If people that want to buy, can’t. And if rental costs are anywhere near mortgaged costs, the market is wrong and incorrectly shaped/legislated/regulated.

It’s an easy problem. Not a hard one.


What's a sensible number? You seem so sure that this is easily fixed.
 
Fair enough, I'd certainly prefer to choose the solution that is driven by the market but I've heard about landlords in London being able to effectively auction their properties to the highest bidders due to supply and demand, and that should certainly be controlled.
I’m not sure how you determine market rate without some kind of “auction” whereby buyers and sellers negotiate a price.
 
I’m not sure how you determine market rate without some kind of “auction” whereby buyers and sellers negotiate a price.


If you advertise a property at a certain price then that should be the price that is accepted. I don't think that would be a bad form of rent control. Also limiting annual increases.

Are you of the Hayek school of economists!
 
If you advertise a property at a certain price then that should be the price that is accepted. I don't think that would be a bad form of rent control. Also limiting annual increases.

Are you of the Hayek school of economists!
Ok, I advertise my property for rent at a high price and will accept the offer from whoever offers the smallest discount. All of this is dancing round the real problem - BUILD MORE HOUSES.
 
I mean his photo looks shopped as hell. :lol:

Keen to see some video footage of this guy!
I was assuming that you need to actually prove where and who you are to stand for election and therefore you couldn't have fake candidates. Looking into it, I'm not so sure and that guys X account looks very suspicious. Surely can't be true...but do we have fake Reform candidates here? Surely not?
 
"How do you think anyone could be nominated if you don’t exist ?"

This is the question for philosophers
 
I was assuming that you need to actually prove where and who you are to stand for election and therefore you couldn't have fake candidates. Looking into it, I'm not so sure and that guys X account looks very suspicious. Surely can't be true...but do we have fake Reform candidates here? Surely not?
You wouldn’t think so, but funnier things have happened.
 
So I go up to Mark's office and what do I find out, Mac, what do I find out? There is no Mark Matlock. The man does not exist, okay? So I decided, ohh shit, buddy, I gotta dig a little deeper. There's no Mark Matlock, you gotta be kidding me, I got boxes full of Mark! All right, so I start marching my way down to Nigel at Reform. and I knock on her door and I say, "Niiigel! Niiigel! I gotta talk to you about Mark!" And when I open the door, what do I find? There's not a single goddamn desk in that office. There is no Nigel at Reform. Mac, half the employees in this building have been made up. This office is a goddamn ghost town.
 
The way it typically works is to benefit the existing tenants who pay artificially low rents. But it creates an undesirable lock-in effect and causes much higher rents for properties not under rent control as everyone else must compete for the fewer remaining apartments.

It also penalises people who move more often (young people and growing families) and benefits those that don't move (older people).

And if you completely control the market top to bottom, then you create a big value differential between selling and renting, at which point landlords just sell instead because its more financially desirable. Which shrinks the pool of rental properties further and puts them in the hands of people that can afford the deposits, while the remaining renters have fewer to choose from.

All in all, a very regressive policy.
 
What's a sensible number? You seem so sure that this is easily fixed.

You know as well as I do that that’s an impossibly calc without teams of people looking at the data.

But as a simple legislation to equalise the market, just pass a law that doesn’t allow a property to be rented at more than 75% of its monthly mortgage cost. If these properties are investments, force the landlords to invest in them. It’s not the tenants job to be kept under the jackboot of our fecked housing market. Nor should landlords be given halo polishes for doing so.

Large scale longstanding landlords owning mortgage fee properties can have sensible nominal fees imposed on them. If their income for a 2 bedroom flat in London drops from 2500 to 1500 overnight, they’ll sell some of them.

Do those things for a decade and you solve so much of the problem.

The elephant in the room is that this barely touches truly rich folks that have hoards of properties. I’m not protecting them, and it would take a really big idea to remedy that. But that’s our class system in full effect.

These measures may be too sharp, but they wouldn’t decimate the housing market if all of a sudden lots of people could move from renters to owners. We just transfer assets from a small number to a larger number.

Making shit better is so damn easy. Making it perfect and fair for all is impossible. But better is a cakewalk.