US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Plechazunga said:
Well, take health care then. If you want a public option, surely the obvious strategy is to push for single payer and compromise at a public option. But no, he gives up single payer, not to mention price controls, months before negotiations start, then pushes a public option and compromises at a half-arsed mandate that will insure a lot more people but is basically a massive giveaway to the insurance industry (who understandably love it). Then the Republicans crucify him for it anyway, even though it's essentially quite conservative and based on Romney's plan.

Or take the stimulus. A massive stimulus would have saved millions of working-class people from unemployment and got the economy going. But he goes for a mild one, because he's scared of Republicans and ratings agencies and right-wing economists scaremongering about inflation and borrowing costs. A couple of years on, inflation's low and investors are paying the US to borrow from them, and yet they get downgraded anyway and the Republicans, of course, slaughter him for profligacy anyway.

And all that was with a majority in both Houses.

If - and it's a big if, especially if the Euro tanks the world economy again - he gets a second term, hopefully he'll have learnt that all moving to the right to accomodate the Republicans achieves is centre-right policies.

Or maybe those are the policies he wants.
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two factors imo. Obama actually wanted to work with the GOP. But all they wanted to do was obstruct and have him fail. Secondly, wit Health Care, both parties are in the pockets of the industry. He just did not have the votes for a clear single payer. Also although in name he did have both houses, the blue dogs were Democrats in name only.

People like Nelson and Liberman acted as Republicans in not even allowing a vote on the public option to come to the floor. A reason perhaps neither is seeking re election?

This is an aside. I saw this stat on Up with Chris Hayes. 11% or Americans would be comfortable with a Communist government!! Not unthinkable 25% would be comfortable with a socialist government then. Its not that these people believe in an ideology. Its fear. They seek a larger safety net.
 
Grinner said:
Perry has been a disaster considering how much money he's spent.
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Absolutely, he has probably done a better job as a parody than Stephen Colbert could have though he still has a shot dependent on what happens to Gingrich and Bachmann, plus as Santorum has done pretty much nothing outside of Iowa at all.
 
I could see Santorum doing a Huckabee and attracting the evangelicals and nutters and staying in the race for longer than Romney would like. I still think paul is going to squeak it tonight.
 
Team Brian GB said:
I wouldn't say so, Santorum got the bounce that Perry, Cain and Gingrich all got except that his happened to coincide with polling day. If any of those three didn't do everything they could to look like a prat when they were leading then Santorum wouldn't have seen such enormous growth in support in less than fourteen days.

Huntsman does not have much of a chance because of the way he designed his campaign, if Giuliani couldn't avoid Iowa last time round when he had such an enormous lead in support and fundraising then Huntsman most certainly cannot when he is trailing everybody else. You don't just campaign state to state to win their support, you do it to fundraise and seek media exposure and as a consequence as this race rolls into New Hampshire he'll be getting too little of it despite practically moving there.
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A national poll does not help. It is ultimately state to state. Obama won that way.
Also look at where the GOP is now. its pretty far right.
Its Delegates, delegates, delegates. The GOP has changed its early state structure this time around.They award them proportionately. The probability is that it would be Romney....but you cannot rule out a conservative especially if he does not have skeletons. Santorum is a 'true' conservative...so it seems.
 
That would be interesting, looking at the county-by-county results, there is one county called Emmet where the leading candidate is Santorum with 59 votes, yet 62 listed 'no preference' and 159 have written somebody in - it will be interesting to see what is going on there.
 
Results for Iowa Republican Caucus (U.S. Presidential Primary)
Jan 03, 2012 (31% of precincts reporting)
Mitt Romney 7,844 23.4%
Rick Santorum 7,726 23%
Ron Paul 7,655 22.8%
Newt Gingrich 4,440 13.2%
Rick Perry 3,433 10.2%
 
Team Brian GB said:
That would be interesting, looking at the county-by-county results, there is one county called Emmet where the leading candidate is Santorum with 59 votes, yet 62 listed 'no preference' and 159 have written somebody in - it will be interesting to see what is going on there.
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yup...it really may be a shocker. Newt is currently 4th after all the attacks.

Crazy.
 
Santorum has no cash though. His state organizations are nothing compared to Romney. He'd have to offer something special and I don't think he does. He's just benefitted from the SuperPAC attacks that have decimated Gingrich's support and Bachmanns campaign disarray.
 
Red Dreams said:
Its Delegates, delegates, delegates. The GOP has changed its early state structure this time around.They award them proportionately. The probability is that it would be Romney....but you cannot rule out a conservative especially if he does not have skeletons. Santorum is a 'true' conservative...so it seems.
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Romney lost out on that front last time I recall, many of the states he won were proportional whilst McCain took lots of 'winner takes all' states.
 
Grinner said:
Santorum has no cash though. His state organizations are nothing compared to Romney. He'd have to offer something special and I don't think he does. He's just benefitted from the SuperPAC attacks that have decimated Gingrich's support and Bachmanns campaign disarray.
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Which is why I am not ruling out Perry as he has the money and organisation to go on for quite a long time, is positioned to take the support of Bachmann and Gingrinch, and can fight off Romney's attacks.
 
Team Brian GB said:
Which is why I am not ruling out Perry as he has the money and organisation to go on for quite a long time, is positioned to take the support of Bachmann and Gingrinch, and can fight off Romney's attacks.
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I see your point but I think even the hardcore base know that he'd be hopeless against Obama. Santorum has at least got a good grasp of foreign policy and performed quite well in the debates. He's a far more attractive prospect for conservatives.
 
Rick 'Sanitarium' Santorum, looks like he's won the race to seem the most extreme in his Evangelical libertarianism. Would be amusing if he won Iowa, he's completely unelectable as a President.
 
Lets say hypothetically that Romney cannot beat everybody out to get a majority of delegates and it is split three ways or so by the time of the convention which may well happen considering national polling has been looking for anybody but Romney over the last six months.

What happens then? Does any other Republican fancy their chances and try and usurp affairs from the floor?
 
gooDevil said:
Rick 'Sanitarium' Santorum, looks like he's won the race to seem the most extreme in his Evangelical libertarianism. Would be amusing if he won Iowa, he's completely unelectable as a President.
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In this field that isn't a deal braker.
 
Wow, I never realized how few people vote in these things, 60 people win you a county with 80% reporting?!

I have driven across Iowa without seeing a single human through endless corn fields, some of those counties must have 1 tiny town each.
 
I'm watching France 24's little piece on the Iowa Republican causcus and it's very good. Quickly becoming my favourite news network atm.
 
gooDevil said:
Wow, I never realized how few people vote in these things, 60 people win you a county with 80% reporting?!

I have driven across Iowa without seeing a single human through endless corn fields, some of those counties must have 1 tiny town each.
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I always find that amusing in American elections, English parish council elections get more voters than most American counties do.
 
Santorum 13,153 25%
Romney 12,907 24%
Paul 11,830 22%
Gingrich 7,160 14%
Perry 5,463 11%
Bachmann 3,031 6%
Huntsman 306 <1%
Cain 23 <1%

Santorum given brown on the Fox poll too...haha
 
gooDevil said:
Perhaps that's the one saving grace, the extremists in the republican party are too entrenched in their own thinking to vote for someone who can actually win. Thus voting for people like Pat Robertson in the past...:rolleyes:
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Isn't there a photoshopped image floating around somewhere of Obama chomping on a cigar watching the republicans?
 
It's a very small % gap, but it's just been getting bigger...looks like Paul may have fallen off the pace.

I can't help but be amused by the idea of him winning the nomination, probably wouldn't be funny though when it really happened.
 
This will do.




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The Governor of Texas and prospective republican nominee for president ladies and gentlemen:


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I wouldn't put it past Romney to do an ad saying "Google Santorum and see if you like what you find - vote Romney"
 
Team Brian GB said:
Which is why I am not ruling out Perry as he has the money and organisation to go on for quite a long time, is positioned to take the support of Bachmann and Gingrinch, and can fight off Romney's attacks.
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the hint is that Perry will drop out tonight....same with Bachmann.

who do you think will get their votes? Not Romney. South Carolina and Florida will decide who gets it I think.
 
I would think Santorum as the extremist will get Perry and Bachmann's votes. But surely other states won't get as excited about old Ass-juice as Iowa...surely.

Daily Beast columnist Andrew Sullivantweets his verdict on the caucuses: "Turnout poor & winner still very uncertain. Bad news for GOP. Enthusiasm just isn't there, except for Paul among young"
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Perry dropping out?? That really would surprise me as he doesn't need to pull out at this point.

If that were to happen then Gingrich should stay in as the flow of support would go to him and Santorum though I wouldn't expect either to really capitalise on it.
 
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