US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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niMic said:
What's the future of the Republican Party? Obviously they can't stay the way they have been. That's an easy prediction, given the very obvious and very real demographic changes. It is a fact of American politics that different parts of the country and different demographic groups have supported various parties at various points in time. Surely the Party realizes that they have to change?

I suppose they could attempt the "go further right!" approach for one more election before realizing the futility of that, but I don't think it will even take that long. Whether they can do anything about it that soon is another matter. Unless things go very wrong in Obama's second term, I can definitely see the Democrats pulling another landslide victory, and certainly if the Republican's haven't learned from their mistakes.

But, long term, what are they going to do? You'd imagine that latinos in general shouldn't necessarily fall in with the Democrats ideologically (but who knows with the newer generations), but all of that takes the back seat to immigration policy. But would their core voters really accept that? Even if the upper party echelon realized what they had to do, I can see their voters actually just keep voting in Tea Party types (or other nutjubs).
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The decline of the GOP at the Presidential level is a sign that the US political system is self-organizing itself to conform more with global democratic norms. The Republicans can't compete in the electoral college with the white male vote dwindling and the black and hispanic votes ascending, but at the same time, they will continue to be major players in Congress where they can rely on local voting to keep plenty of Congress members on their side.
 
Saliph said:
Nate was on Daily Show last night:

http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/wed-november-7-2012-nate-silver
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Isn't that the second time he's been on in a couple of weeks?

mjs020294 said:
I think the rumors regarding the death of the GOP are very premature. Despite fielding an odious unelectable candidate they actually came relatively close this time around. If they filed a more likeable nominee and decent VP nominee it will be very close in 2016. Then they just have to rethink some of their less popular and unnecessary polices like abortion and gay rights etc.

People are relatively inpatient and blame government and the incumbent for everything. The fact that a GOP nominee did so well four years after GW Bush pretty much proves how hard it is to remain in power for any period of time. people are fickle.
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Obviously they aren't going to die, that doesn't stop it being true that even a moderate would currently struggle to get up to 270. And as you kept reminding us during the election process, the current economy made it very tough for Obama. The Democrats were better organised, had a stronger message and a far broader base. And the current state of their party means it isn't as easy as just tossing gay-rights and abortion away as issues. How do they avoid the tea-party being such an influence? They have a lot of problems.
 
I dread to think what might happen in future if they can't attain power by fair means.
 
mjs020294 said:
I think the rumors regarding the death of the GOP are very premature. Despite fielding an odious unelectable candidate they actually came relatively close this time around. If they filed a more likeable nominee and decent VP nominee it will be very close in 2016. Then they just have to rethink some of their less popular and unnecessary polices like abortion and gay rights etc.

People are relatively inpatient and blame government and the incumbent for everything. The fact that a GOP nominee did so well four years after GW Bush pretty much proves how hard it is to remain in power for any period of time. people are fickle.
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That's right. Demographics are important, but so is the candidate. A solid blue state like California elected Arnie as governator, so you know it's not just about demographics. Obama is a strong candidate, and his reelection says as much about him as the trends in the electorate.
 
Ubik said:
Obviously they aren't going to die, that doesn't stop it being true that even a moderate would currently struggle to get up to 270. And as you kept reminding us during the election process, the current economy made it very tough for Obama. The Democrats were better organised, had a stronger message and a far broader base. And the current state of their party means it isn't as easy as just tossing gay-rights and abortion away as issues. How do they avoid the tea-party being such an influence? They have a lot of problems.
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But Benghazi!!!
 
surf said:
That's right. Demographics are important, but so is the candidate. A solid blue state like California elected Arnie as governator, so you know it's not just about demographics. Obama is a strong candidate, and his reelection says as much about him as the trends in the electorate.
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Or in Arnie's case a public profile. Ventura was elected in Minnesota ffs.
 
surf said:
That's right. Demographics are important, but so is the candidate. A solid blue state like California elected Arnie as governator, so you know it's not just about demographics. Obama is a strong candidate, and his reelection says as much about him as the trends in the electorate.
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Arnie was very much a "right-place, right-time" candidate, in that the previous Governor, Gray Davis, was at the time receiving a majority of the blame at the time for the state getting screwed out of $40B by Enron's power-transfer schemes, (unfairly, it must be said, as Enron was able to do this because of legislation signed by Davis' Republican predecessor,) and the Democratic alternative to Arnie in the recall, Cruz Bustamante, was an incompetent and corrupt sleazeball.
 
Hey, does anyone remember an article (I think Plech linked it in here) about how Republicans were staking everything on winning in 2012? Can't find it anywhere, it was a superb article.
 
Excal said:
Freepers pen letter asking Queen to take us back
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They're going to be really pissed when they find out about the National Health Service.
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And that whole gun control thing... And that very large family that lives off the government teat...
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"We thought our laws and Constitution would protect us from a foreign born dictator"

They're writing this to the Queen, right? The QUEEN?
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:lol:

Not to mention free abortions, jobseekers allowance, no death penalty, gay bishops and an openly atheist deputy PM. They'll love it.

Idiots.
 
You wrote that letter to the Queen, didn't you, Plech?
Absolutely priceless!

Anyway, Your Grace, we are truly sorry and humbly sincerely beg your forgiveness. If you can find it in your heart to forgive us and take us back, we promise never to trade British oppression for Socialist tyranny again.
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:lol:
 
PPP Most Accurate Pollster Of 2012,

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/st...12-rasmussen-and-gallup-among-least-accurate/

Study: PPP Most Accurate Pollster Of 2012, Rasmussen And Gallup Among Least Accurate


I am surprised by PPP being the most accurate. But not at all surprised by Rasmassum and Gallup being crap.

1. PPP (D)*

1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*

3. YouGov*

4. Ipsos/Reuters*

5. Purple Strategies

6. NBC/WSJ

6. CBS/NYT

6. YouGov/Economist

9. UPI/CVOTER

10. IBD/TIPP

11. Angus-Reid*

12. ABC/WP*

13. Pew Research*

13. Hartford Courant/UConn*

15. CNN/ORC

15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA

15. Politico/GWU/Battleground

15. FOX News

15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics

15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics

15. American Research Group

15. Gravis Marketing

23. Democracy Corps (D)*

24. Rasmussen

24. Gallup

26. NPR

27. National Journal*

28. AP/GfK

Costas based his rankings on pre-election poll numbers compared with the final results of the election. Nate Silver will likely be doing his own study in the near future and it will be interesting to compare his findings with this list. Nonetheless, I find it interesting to see where the various pollsters have turned up and wonder what the right will think about the fact that Rasmussen was among the most inaccurate pollsters of the 2012 cycle.
 
Feeky_Magee said:
Sweet, cheers Plech.
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It's holding up pretty fecking perfectly isn't it? Kudos to Chait. He posted one expressing sympathy with the Republicans yesterday, which I didn't believe for a minute!

By the way, that Unskewed bloke has written an unexpectedly graceful final post that actually admits his views didn't accord with reality. That's genuine progress from a wingnut.

Waltraute said:
You wrote that letter to the Queen, didn't you, Plech?
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I wish I had an imagination that good!
 
Ubik said:
http://www.libertarianrepublican.net/2012/11/the-end-of-liberty-in-america-only.html

Tis funny.



They were pretty accurate in their final 08 polls as well more often than not. Apparently their likely voter screen is "hang up if you don't plan on voting" :lol: That may have been a joke though and I'm just dense.
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read somewhere they did not poll cell phones. That was the reason I had a doubt.

Although it was a Democratic poll, I did not see any bias unlike Rasmussen and Gallup which were ridiculous.
 
Red Dreams said:
read somewhere they did not poll cell phones. That was the reason I had a doubt.

Although it was a Democratic poll, I did not see any bias unlike Rasmussen and Gallup which were ridiculous.
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Yup they aren't allowing to call cells because they robo-call. Essentially, Rasmussen and Gallup made the same mistake the GOP did in assuming a whiter, older electorate, which is a fairly big fail. PPP assumed it would be similar to 08.
 
Pffft, he's not a killer. His "personal rebellion" is the most pussified bit of moaning bitchiness I've ever seen. Lawn signs, defriending people on Facebook, and being a massive dickbag to store clerks (who are just trying to get through the day) because the store they work at accepts EBT.
 
Excal said:
Pffft, he's not a killer. His "personal rebellion" is the most pussified bit of moaning bitchiness I've ever seen. Lawn signs, defriending people on Facebook, and being a massive dickbag to store clerks (who are just trying to get through the day) because the store they work at accepts EBT.
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Don't forget crapping on someone's lawn. Uh, although it might be illegal so...get your dog to do it.

Badass!

Also, how have they still not called Florida?
 
that John Denver fella was actually trying to help him.
funny thing is the day after the elections,came to the office and I had a very good discussion with my CEO who is a republican. It was simply a discussion on different philosophies. His daughter is a big Rooney/United fan :)

But another co worker who is a very close friend of mine was so upset. She said..."I don't know how you can vote for Obama'". I sat her down and simply said. Never get upset about things you cannot control. I did not tell her that I usually jump and curse the ref or swear when one of our lads misses a goal...at the tv of course.



Whatever we all Americans...and we are going to face great challemges...but I feel we are moving in the right direction as country.
 
Raoul said:
The decline of the GOP at the Presidential level is a sign that the US political system is self-organizing itself to conform more with global democratic norms...
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Hm. Not so sure about that. Think it's safe to say that the race factor was the only thing that kept the Right from trying the sort of incendiary, high-risk-high-reward strategies like the "religion" ones they used to success for W. Long story short, Obama being "black" meant a lot of their preferred plays would not be options due to the "Normally it'd be a possibility but in this case there's just far too much risk it'll make us look bad" factor. It's far more likely that instead of rethinking positions, they're consoling themselves with the fact that they were working with a limited deck.
 
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