US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Red Dreams said:
look at where the candidates are. That would be the clue.

I think IA/WI/OH are safe for Obama.

I think he will pull CO into his column.

NH could go either way.
VA too.

FL ...I would need to see NBC poll first.
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The candidates go to most states anyway, For example Ryan is in Pennsylvania tomorrow, and ohio. And romney in Florida and Virginia..

Interestingly no-one in North Carolina
 
NC is red..it's over there I think.

Think the democrats should save their resources there for some more important state...like PA which might not be that safe for Obama !!
 
Romney's already taking staff out of NC I think, would be a shock not to see it go to him now.

If the Dems can't win PA then it's all over. But there's no real danger of them losing it, there isn't a poll listed on RCP that has Romney ahead since February.
 
There's a poll today putting Romney ahead but it's Susquehanna which was commissioned by the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania . it's the only pollster to give Romney a lead back in February and today. We can just ignore it, but don't know why Nate included it in his calculations. It's not just biased, it's a red poll.
 
He'll have a method of adjusting for any house bias though and will tend to trust the polls to even each other out.

Also, Obama now leads RCP for the first time in 10 days! By 0.1%.
 
Jaz said:
The candidates go to most states anyway, For example Ryan is in Pennsylvania tomorrow, and ohio. And romney in Florida and Virginia..

Interestingly no-one in North Carolina
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NC is Romneys.

Rasmussen has Obama up by 2 in WI, which means Obama has it especially as the NBC poll had him up by more even.

NH looks a toss up.

In spite of the PPP poll, I feel good about IA for Obama.
 
At this stage its hard to feel "good" about it. GOP enthusiasm is sky high and Obama relied on a lot of first time voters last time. God knows how much apathy will come into play on polling day. I could certainly see Romney getting a two point bump against the polls when real voting starts.
 
That 277 is pretty solid, though, and the likes of Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia could easily go Obama, and Florida isn't that far away. It remains the case that Romney's path to 270 is tougher. Obviously Ohio would throw a spanner in the works, but that's the case whatever happens. The Democrats also have very good early voting operations going on, which is only going to help their turnout.
 
Ubik said:
That 277 is pretty solid, though, and the likes of Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia could easily go Obama, and Florida isn't that far away. It remains the case that Romney's path to 270 is tougher. Obviously Ohio would throw a spanner in the works, but that's the case whatever happens. The Democrats also have very good early voting operations going on, which is only going to help their turnout.
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Look at both candidates route of winning without Ohio.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

btw Larry Sabato is a very respected pollster like Silver.

Obama's route is much more plausible.

The latest CNN poll for Florida has Romney ahead by 1 only.
 
Silver isn't a pollster, he's an analyst of polling data, and really the pioneer in that realm. Before him, the closest we had to serious mathematical examination of polling data were things like RCP's no-thought-required "poll of polls".

At this point, the only reason to look at RCP instead of 538 is that the results better favor whatever narrative you're trying to push.
 
Romney is going to carry Florida, I am sure about that (but I will be happy if I am wrong). I have been fairly consistent about Ohio being the key. It still looks like the all important State but Romney could still win if he took WI instead.

This is far too close to call now.
 
Could it be so close that we have another vote counting scandal? Are you using any new systems this time around?

Pencil and paper still seems to be the best way to for for us over here at the minute.
 
^New Fox poll putting Obama up by 3 there (another one down by 3 in Florida).
 
Ohio is important and with so many votes already cast it will be hard for Romney to win there. Apparently Romney is getting very strong support in the rural areas of Wisconsin so its possible up could turn that State around.
 
RD, did I see you mention that you're in Wisconsin? What's the feeling like there at the moment? Do you have early voting? Seems hard to believe that it would go Romney at the same time as Ohio going Obama.
 
I just saw the Daily show analisys of the debate, from oct. 17th. That shit was brilliant, Jon Stewart funny as hell and the analysis panels by the english dude... Amazing :lol:
 
Ubik said:
RD, did I see you mention that you're in Wisconsin? What's the feeling like there at the moment? Do you have early voting? Seems hard to believe that it would go Romney at the same time as Ohio going Obama.
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I'm in St. Paul Minnesota mate.

Hardly any ads here. This is Obama Country.

WI has always been tighter. On election night, MN comes first for Democrats, followed slower by WI. It will be closer than 2008 of course. But Obama should win again. Even in the recall election, although Walker won, when asked about the presidential election, the majority favoured Obama.

I used to work for a company based in Green Bay. Majority were Republicans, but there was a good sprinkling of democrats too. Madison and Milwaukee are Democratic strongholds.
 
I always get Minnesota and Wisconsin mixed up and I have no idea why.
 
Are there areas of Minnesota where you just send tea-partiers to live, to keep them out the way? I'm trying to rationalise Michele Bachmann getting elected.
 
Ubik said:
Are there areas of Minnesota where you just send tea-partiers to live, to keep them out the way? I'm trying to rationalise Michele Bachmann getting elected.
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Rural Minnesota is heavily Republican. Minneapolis, the most heavily populous and of course the biggest city in Minnesota is heavily Democratic.

It is hard to imagine anyone other than a Democratic Presidential vote or a Senator from Minnesota. The demographics are moving very strongly in favour of democrats in the cities.

But there has been a lot of corruption by the local Republican party too, so the DFL(Democrat/Farmer/Labour) as the Democratic party is called here is expected to take back the legislature this time. With a Democratic Governor (Dayton) I feel very positive about the future of the state. Come 2014 I hope we go for the Public Option..assuming Obama is still our President...which really he should be in spite of all the media 'noise'.
 
Jaz said:
I think Romney has lost Ohio....Just can't see him making it up
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Plus rumors are early voting is leaning heavily Obama and I've always heard early and mail in voting are normally skewed Reoub.
 
How influential is eaely/absentee voting, what sort of percentage of the overall total? Fox were reporting a lead of 20 points for Obama if i was hearing aright.
 
Cali Red said:
Plus rumors are early voting is leaning heavily Obama and I've always heard early and mail in voting are normally skewed Reoub.
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Absentee voting that normally trickles in (gets counted) after election day tends to go GOP, as many of them are overseas military voters. That said, I can't see Romney getting the sort of support from the military that Dubya did.
 
Raoul said:
Absentee voting that normally trickles in (gets counted) after election day tends to go GOP, as many of them are overseas military voters. That said, I can't see Romney getting the sort of support from the military that Dubya did.
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Well Obama got caught up in that hoo-ha with the Navy Seals a couple of months ago, although it was seen as controversial for them to go public in the first place IIRC.

Romney gave the military scant attention during his convention speech and has a dubious foreign policy platform [the possibility of an Iranian operation too], genuine negatives there.

How many in the military know that there unit or base could be axed in future defence cuts? This is the only real vulnerability for Obama from what i can see.
 
True but most are probably a bit tired of the deployments and want to come home. He's advocating that.
 
Polling's a bit like a United match for me, I have to be watching and knowing what's happening every minute else I fret.

Nick - according to the polling (sorry guys), PPP saw about 19% of respondents having already voted in last week's Ohio poll, over 70% of which was for Obama. They'll have another one out tomorrow so there'll be an updated figure. In the last one they had out in Iowa (which Romney led by 1) 31% of respondents had already voted, going for Obama 66% of the time.
 
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