cheers mate
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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God, Maher is so full of himself
I usually download them on torrent (or watch it live on a stream). Just google "Real Time Bill Maher xx.xx.2012 torrent", for example, and you'll find it.
I'm fecking loving the 538 "now-cast" right, er, now.
It's giving Romney a 4.4% chance, and predicting a 127-seat Obama win, by a 5-point margin in the popular vote.
If only that was the actual prediction...
It's giving Romney a 4.4% chance, and predicting a 127-seat Obama win, by a 5-point margin in the popular vote.
If only that was the actual prediction...
Agreed. His audience is even worse, clapping and cheering like every criticism of Republicans/Christians is so profound and they've never heard anyone dare to say that before.
He has a massive ego for sure, but then again, most celebrities probably do (and it'd be hard not to with an audience like that, eager to stroke his cock whenever he opens his mouth).
Not sure how he works out the electoral vote thing, given that the likeliest outcome in the distribution graph on the forecast gives Obama 330 votes as well. If Obama keeps polling 5 point leads in the swing states as well, the forecast's going to move towards the now-cast rather than the other way round.
Are you less worried yet? Nearly the end of September and Romney's even further away than he was a month ago. In fact Obama's about the strongest he's been throughout the campaign.
Tampa has been the most active political advert market for six months, we have been bombarded with them. I have been watching TV pretty much all day and I have seen one advert. The Romney superpaks have shut up shop and they're saving their money for 2016.
The Now-Cast is essentially a poll of polls, with some weighting of the pollsters. It's giving similar results to the Princeton Election Consortium which doesn't use any data other than polls.
The forecast model makes various adjustments based on historical election dynamics, pricing in things like economic indicators, presidential approval ratings and post-convention bounces. Obama is no longer being 'penalised' (I don't think) for his convention bounce, and from now on will start being 'rewarded' by the model for being ahead - on the basis that turning over a lead gets less and less likely the closer you get. So as we approach the election it will converge with the Now-Cast (though of course his Now-Cast advantage will probably come down a far bit).
Yes 330 votes has the highest spike, but the model runs thousands of simulations and that result only comes 15% of the time.
I'm a bit less of a Nervous Nellie now, yes. Though Romney still has about a 1/4 chance according to that model, which is not particularly unlikely.
Yeah, love him pretty much taking credit for a movement that he frames as liberials who are anti-Islam.
The Hitch destroyed his audience once, I wish that would happen more on the show. Anything said in opposition to Bill and his opinions is snickered and booed at. They really are a more annoying audience then Letterman's, and that takes some 'talent'
It just seems to be more tied to the popular vote movement than anything to do with the electoral college, but I guess it's just a general representation of the gap between them. I think he's still got the bounce built in, only about half a point though. I'm guessing the model assumes the polls will narrow a bit?
As an aside, that Gingrich video
As an aside, that Gingrich video
60 Minutes interviewed both President Obama and candidate Romney, both very good interviews. Romney instead of offering a plan was more accusing Obama of failing and this and that, so much the interviewer dug in a few times to force Romney to answer his plan not what the other guy did/does. Definitely worth viewing.
I thought Romney was made to look pretty poor TBH. My son is pretty anti-Obama and he thought Romney got destroyed in those interviews.
That's pretty wild. Why would the now-cast be so different from the overall prediction?
I guess the two recent poor jobs reports and the lukewarm approval ratings, plus the last vestiges of convention pricing-in, are pulling Obama back. The situation in the swing states is also a mite less positive for him, though that ought to be affecting the now-cast no less than the forecast.
It's also a matter of Nate's model presuming that sudden shifts like we've seen over the last week to be temporary bounces that will fade a bit as the season wears on, until additional data confirms the new norm.
What a tool.
“Now you made, on your investments, personally, about $20 million last year,” Pelley said. “And you paid 14 percent in federal taxes. That’s the capital gains rate. Is that fair to the guy who makes $50,000 and paid a higher rate than you did?”
“It is a low rate,” Romney said. “And one of the reasons why the capital gains tax rate is lower is because capital has already been taxed once at the corporate level, as high as 35 percent.”
When pressed on whether or not he believes that rate is fair, Romney said he thought it was the “right way to encourage economic growth — to get people to invest, to start businesses, to put people to work.”
http://freakoutnation.blogspot.no/2012/09/making-50000-year-mitt-romney-thinks.html
“Now you made, on your investments, personally, about $20 million last year,” Pelley said. “And you paid 14 percent in federal taxes. That’s the capital gains rate. Is that fair to the guy who makes $50,000 and paid a higher rate than you did?”
“It is a low rate,” Romney said. “And one of the reasons why the capital gains tax rate is lower is because capital has already been taxed once at the corporate level, as high as 35 percent.”
When pressed on whether or not he believes that rate is fair, Romney said he thought it was the “right way to encourage economic growth — to get people to invest, to start businesses, to put people to work.”
http://freakoutnation.blogspot.no/2012/09/making-50000-year-mitt-romney-thinks.html
Maher admits to being a prick with an ego he doesnt have any pretenses. I don't always agree with everything he says but I like that he speaks his mind.
Mitt Romney, On 60 Minutes, Cites Emergency Room As Health Care Option For Uninsured
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/23/mitt-romney-60-minutes-health-care_n_1908129.html
in other words as we were....
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/23/mitt-romney-60-minutes-health-care_n_1908129.html
in other words as we were....
The trouble is that no heavyweight repub will go his show because they know they will get called on their bullshit. That bloke this week was a fecking idiot...typical San Diego republican who got schooled by a barely-trying Chris Matthews. The audience are annoying though.
if Chris Matthews ever did get the Meet the Press show, he would be tough on both sides...of that I am sure.
And he would reference JFK every 38 seconds.
Gregory mentions Reagan far too much
Yeah...the JFK wistfulness is getting boring now. I'd have Maddow do MTP and really shake things up.
Lawrence O' Donnel...
would never happen.
Think he is an excellent journalist and historian.
But I have seen him actually defend Ron Paul once....
Lawrence O' Donnel...
would never happen.
Think he is an excellent journalist and historian.
But I have seen him actually defend Ron Paul once....
I don't think he has presence.
That's sexist
All these pundits feel the need to keep talking about the presidential election as if it's still in doubt. It's like United beating Wigan 3-0 with 10 minutes to go. We know it's going to be a home win.
San Diego is full of brits isn't it?
Even North Carolina is beginning to poll an Obama lead now.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html
and the last two are Republican Pollsters.
Rasmussen
That's going too far. Most predictors are giving Romney between a 1/4 and 1/5 chance (Intrade more like 30%).
I don't know anything about football betting, but that seems to me more like the chance of Liverpool winning at OT.
An election fund ad for Romney appeared on CNN a few minutes ago. It's calling for patriots to sign up in a "to stop the tide of socialism that has taken over our country in the last four years." Also cites Obama going up in the polls after the DNC and blames big labor and Hollywood for out-raising the Romney campaign (no mention of Alderson and the Koch donations to Romney). A really shitty ad IMO.
Looking bleak... I think turnout might be down this year
Big labor? What the feck is big labor?
Email or tweet sent to CNN The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer about comparing Obama/Romney to Carter/Reagan.
"It's not. Comparing Reagan to Romney is like comparing Stephen Hawking to Junior Samples from Hee-Haw."
"It's not. Comparing Reagan to Romney is like comparing Stephen Hawking to Junior Samples from Hee-Haw."
Reagan was the head of a union....the commie feck.
Well that was always likely. 2008 had the highest percentage turnout in 40 years.
Mitt Romney, scientific genius, on his wife's plane making an emergency landing:
"I don’t think she knows just how worried some of us were," Romney said. “When you have a fire in an aircraft, there’s no place to go, exactly, there’s no — and you can’t find any oxygen from outside the aircraft to get in the aircraft, because the windows don’t open. I don’t know why they don’t do that. It’s a real problem. So it’s very dangerous."
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-romney-beverly-hills-fundraiser-20120922,0,2317962.story
Yeah Mitt, why don't plane windows open?
"I don’t think she knows just how worried some of us were," Romney said. “When you have a fire in an aircraft, there’s no place to go, exactly, there’s no — and you can’t find any oxygen from outside the aircraft to get in the aircraft, because the windows don’t open. I don’t know why they don’t do that. It’s a real problem. So it’s very dangerous."
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-romney-beverly-hills-fundraiser-20120922,0,2317962.story
Yeah Mitt, why don't plane windows open?
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