The Dem poll has likely voters and is the only one taken after the DNC. The previous ones that were done before the conventions are effectively worthless now, as is the RCP average given that none of them incorporate Obama's solid bounce.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
- Thread starter Team Brian GB
- Start date
- Status
You can basically toss out that SurveyUSA poll in NC as a strange outlier. It had 30% of African American respondents saying they're voting for Romney. Not happening.
No one is using the average.
You just need to look at the NC polling in the last week to figure out that there's not really been much of a bounce at all.
there are a couple of heavily Republican leaning polls there. I've generally found Survey USA has a GOP lean...as do those that represent them on talk shows.
Still I think Obama has reached the peak for the moment I think....Though Romney has given a lot of ammo for the President for the debates. His tax plan...or lack of specifics and the insistence that anyone with pre-existing conditions....basically anyone with gaps in insurance coverage are screwed.
Still I think Obama has reached the peak for the moment I think....Though Romney has given a lot of ammo for the President for the debates. His tax plan...or lack of specifics and the insistence that anyone with pre-existing conditions....basically anyone with gaps in insurance coverage are screwed.
No one is using the average.
You just need to look at the NC polling in the last week to figure out that there's not really been much of a bounce at all.
The GOP poll is an outlier, and one with registered, not likely voters at that. Not to mention a small sample. The Dem poll contains likely voters and a bigger sample, AND incorporates Obama's bounce. It's probably far more accurate.
To be fair, these surveys are not large enough to look at specific demographic subgroups.
This invalidates your argument, if it incorporates Obama's bounce then it's probably overestimating Obama's numbers, rather than underestimating.
A bounce isn't an overestimation, it's a surge in momentum and popularity that will remain as such until Romney does something to reverse it, which he can't at the moment.
Numbers aside, Romney is getting more desperate. He's even begun to embrace Romneycare again.
He got desperate when he fell behind against McCain in 08, and ended up making a mess of it, which in turn just hastened his demise.
yes and no. He basically flip flopped again or at least his campaign....did on his stand on pre-existing conditions.
He is all over the place though.
Even republicans have come out and said he is losing or lost Ohio. Thus the desperation you see.
The one negative in this for democrats is the GOP will throw all their resources in the senate and congressional races.
It is an overestimate on the final poll result. It's very infrequent for any candidate to reproduce the similar number as 1 week past the convention bounce. Secondly, bounces are thought to be less in swing-states...
I expected NC to be similar to the Ohio numbers of +5 post convention, it's not happened yet.
On surveyusa: they performed well according to nate in house and senate: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
We're already assuming the Congress will be led by the repubs. You have to think that they will finally decide that they must work with the administration. They won't have to worry about him looking good and getting re-elected anymore.
I can't wait to watch Fox News the day after the election.
I can't wait to watch Fox News the day after the election.
NC and Ohio are apples and oranges and bear no comparison to one another. Romney has been almost consistently edging it in NC, and the newest poll of likely voters reflects Obama's new momentum at the national level. In either case, Romney can't by any rational account be considered a sure thing in NC any longer, especially with the debates coming up.
I will be taking Nov 7th off just to enjoy watching vomiting and blaming by the republicans...its already started btw.
The business community and Wall Street will force the Republican Congress to come to heel. They wont want the teabaggers tanking the economy again. the new Democrat nominee will use that aginst the GOP for sure. He or she will be running on a clean slate and will not be seen to be making an excuse as to a point Obama will be seen to be if he pushes the 'GOP do nothing' congress this time around.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ma_vs_romney_compared_to_obama_vs_mccain.html
Obama outperforming himself today v 2008, and Romney of today underperforming against McCain 2008.
Obama outperforming himself today v 2008, and Romney of today underperforming against McCain 2008.
Why does he hate the plucky underdog so much?
The resident GOP nutters on FB are posting about Obama's first tweet today being about election voting while Romney's was about 9/11. They'll grasp onto to anything to prove Obama is a US hatin' Muslim socialist.
why the surprise? Chenney the traitor who by his negligence is guilt of murder of all those people who died on 9/11 is still saying Obama is making this country weak.
Dick Cheney could have been the President of the United States.
Wrap your head around that one.
Wrap your head around that one.
He was, mostly.
He is? Because he issued the stand-down order to Norad?
Science of voting
So Romney now pulls out his old school pal and business partner Netanyaho to put pressure on teh American President to strike Iran.
That Romeny takes his marching orders from his neo-con buddies is obvious. But to use Netanyaho like this beyond stupid. Looks like Netanyaho is getting brickbats at home about interfearing in teh American elections.
Yeah. Obama is going to invade Iran because he wants the Jewish votes.
That Romeny takes his marching orders from his neo-con buddies is obvious. But to use Netanyaho like this beyond stupid. Looks like Netanyaho is getting brickbats at home about interfearing in teh American elections.
Yeah. Obama is going to invade Iran because he wants the Jewish votes.
Short of nuking Israel himself, Obama will get the Jewish vote. Jewish support for Obama has fallen far less than the non-African-American average.
Even in Florida I doubt it will make any difference.
Even in Florida I doubt it will make any difference.
The American public is sick of war. It has finally dawned on even some republicans the cost of war at home....not just lives but teh economy tanking.
Iran is nowhere near getting nukes and if they got close, we can turn Iran to a parking lot without sending one American soldier in.
I hope Netanyho gets a slap from Obama when they do meet.
Iran is nowhere near getting nukes and if they got close, we can turn Iran to a parking lot without sending one American soldier in.
I hope Netanyho gets a slap from Obama when they do meet.
Romney fumbling around and looking like a cock in his statement regarding the events in Libya.
Idiot in such a rush to get a statement out there did not wait for all the news to come in so he releases this dumbass statement then we find out 4 people died. Now in truth when he released the statement there were already reports of at least 1 death but it was not identified as the ambassador yet. But complete lack of judgement on Romney's part for not waiting for the story to unfold a bit. Sometimes you have to take a deep breath and hold your tongue. Failure on Romney's part again.
Has he said more stupid things since his attack on the statement released by the embassy in Egypt?
He was just on CNN, think it was a live statement. He came across as a bumbling fool trying to score political points with half baked religious self righteous slant.
So he appeared natural for once?
What did he say?
"Obama sympathizes with attackers in Egypt. Sad and pathetic."
Guess who tweeted this?
Guess who tweeted this?
my favourite republican Rancid Prepubescent?
That weirdly named guy!
Guess who tweeted this:
"Just watched an excellent and moving stmt by Sec. Clinton- just the right message and tone."
If only all Republicans were more like that.
Guess who tweeted this:
"Just watched an excellent and moving stmt by Sec. Clinton- just the right message and tone."
If only all Republicans were more like that.
In one. I can't believe what a tool that guy is.
Mitt Romney: Ubercunt
I'm starting to think this is the day Romney stopped shooting himself in the foot, and finally shot himself in the head.
- Status