US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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That is indeed Soros. The site has an interactive version, where you can hover over aspects and you get a very slowly scrolling explanation of it. It's half the fun.

Hmm. When you hover over the black man with the shovel, it says 'Unemployment'. But oddly, when you reach his groin area, it says, 'Stimulus'.
 
Maher comes across as very petty when he turns the conversation to his own problems after 9/11. Especially "I was famous and you weren't". I agree with him on most things but he is a bit of a dick.

Well, I see his point, even if it might justifiably be considered somewhat unfair. But D'Souza is too much of a cnut for me to care.

Disagree on the dick thing.
 
Maher is condescending. But he does not allow his guests to get away with their spins.

and D' Souza is just another right wing hack.

How is he condescending? I've watched his show for a long time, and I haven't gotten that impression at all.
 
Don't like Maher too much. Comes across as a bit of a dick.

Stewart on the other hand is a genius.
 
The trouble is, Maher and Stewart are comedians. Yet they are probably two of the toughest, smartest political interviewers on Tv currently. That's fecking sad.
 
I don't care much for Maher. He comes across as a bit of a unimaginative attention seeking knob. Stewart on the other hand is fantastic.
 
Thought you guys might like this. Made an error('s, ignore the misspelling of Diana please) in editing one of my assignments.

imageliw.jpg


Running down the west wing
hear republicans sing
Viva Ronaldo!!!!!
 
Agree on both, the Daily Hour (Stewart and Colbert) is the best thing on TV apart from United.

Yep, hands down.

I tend to enjoy Colbert a tiny bit more though. Love the guy.
 
538 now has Obama three points ahead in the popular vote for the first time since campaigning began, and winning 305 seats, at a probability of 73.1%.

Looks like the GOP convention has created a bounce... for the Democrats. I wonder if that will be the pattern this year: voters watch politicians speak, the other side rises in the polls.

Just realised the Dem surge in the 538 model is probably to do with the Republican conference bounce, which was built into the model, being lacklustre so far. So it may be over-correcting somewhat.

Well, I see his point, even if it might justifiably be considered somewhat unfair. But D'Souza is too much of a cnut for me to care.

Disagree on the dick thing.

Be honest, do you model your Current Events Forum style on Maher? ;)

Yep, hands down.

I tend to enjoy Colbert a tiny bit more though. Love the guy.

Stewart is an excellent comedian and does really well to keep the quality of a daily programme so high.

But Colbert is more than a good comedian, he's a brilliant actor.

Also, the Daily Show is let down a bit by the other segments, IMO. I could really do without John Oliver et al., much rather just watch Stewart dismantle Fox News for the whole show.
 
Just realised the Dem surge in the 538 model is probably to do with the Republican conference bounce, which was built into the model, being lacklustre so far. So it may be over-correcting somewhat.



Be honest, do you model your Current Events Forum style on Maher? ;)



Stewart is an excellent comedian and does really well to keep the quality of a daily programme so high.

But Colbert is more than a good comedian, he's a brilliant actor.

Also, the Daily Show is let down a bit by the other segments, IMO. I could really do without John Oliver et al., much rather just watch Stewart dismantle Fox News for the whole show.

I think Stewart loves this segments and giving new comedians (like Colbert and Carrell) a chance at the big time.
 
I don't really care for Maher. Sometimes he's quite good, but he's never as good as Jon Stewart.

He's also a bit of a vaccine denier, which lessens the impact of the rest of his rationalism somewhat.
 
I don't really care for Maher. Sometimes he's quite good, but he's never as good as Jon Stewart.

He's also a bit of a vaccine denier, which lessens the impact of the rest of his rationalism somewhat.

He's often better in my opinion, even though he does recirculate some of his jokes.

And his hatred of vaccines is just weird.
 
Bill Mahers great in my opinion. love his show. certainly took yer man to the cleaners in that clip
 
Mainly by just talking over him and having a home crowd that cheered all his comments.

It was brave of that D'Souza to go on his show. To go on telly at all in fact, with that haircut.

nah he had chances to make his point. Maher was just having none of it. and when D'Souza did speak his points just sounded dumb. yer right about the the haircut though
 
Real politics poll has the gap at 0.1% today. A few interesting patterns when you look at the various polls: Romney seems very consistent at 45-47%, whereas Obama's spread is 44%-49%. The combined poll includes "likely voter" and "random voter" polls. When you discard the random polls and look at the likely voter polls Romney has a tiny lead.

One thing is for sure there will be no landslide in November.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
 
Real politics poll has the gap at 0.1% today. A few interesting patterns when you look at the various polls: Romney seems very consistent at 45-47%, whereas Obama's spread is 44%-49%. The combined poll includes "likely voter" and "random voter" polls. When you discard the random polls and look at the likely voter polls Romney has a tiny lead.

One thing is for sure there will be no landslide in November.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

It depends on whether you call a 100 point Electoral college win a landslide or not. These tightening polls you claim are are result of a collective bump following the Ryan nomination and the RNC convention. They could just as easily be reversed after Obama and the Dems dominate the news over the coming week.
 
These tightening polls you claim are are result of a collective bump following the Ryan nomination and the RNC convention. They could just as easily be reversed after Obama and the Dems dominate the news over the coming week.

The polls have been tightening for months. I don't think the Ryan nomination helps the GOP but they are doing a decent job humanizing Romney. The large gap a few months ago was mainly down to the likeability rating of both candidates. If the Romney camp continue on their current campaign that gap will narrow.
 
The polls have been tightening for months. I don't think the Ryan nomination helps the GOP but they are doing a decent job humanizing Romney. The large gap a few months ago was mainly down to the likeability rating of both candidates. If the Romney camp continue on their current campaign that gap will narrow.

They haven't been "tightening for months" - they've been fluctuating with Obama almost always being in front.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

In either case, there's no case measuring anything between the conventions, as there's likely to be another swing next week after Obama, who is an excellent speaker, gives his speech.
 
They haven't been "tightening for months" - they've been fluctuating with Obama almost always being in front.

Put a trend line through those charts and they are tightening up for sure. Since Feb 15th Romney has trended up and Obama has trended down for the most part. If they were equal on the likability charts it would be a landslide for the GOP which says a lot about the state of the economy.

The Romney camp are focusing on improving his likeability numbers whilst highlighting just how weak the economy is. They are behind right now but I don't think they are dead in the water like the McCain/Palin ticket was at the same time last time around.
 
Put a trend line through those charts and they are tightening up for sure. Since Feb 15th Romney has trended up and Obama has trended down for the most part. If they were equal on the likability charts it would be a landslide for the GOP which says a lot about the state of the economy.

The Romney camp are focusing on improving his likeability numbers whilst highlighting just how weak the economy is. They are behind right now but I don't think they are dead in the water like the McCain/Palin ticket was at the same time last time around.

He'll definitely fare better than McCain did, but looking at his number before he clinched the nomination isn't going to get a very accurate read out of things, because his numbers were fluctuating during the primaries due to the likes of Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry beating him up. If you look at his numbers after Santorum's withdrawal, he's not made up much ground on Obama, in fact his largest deficit was just last month.
 
Interesting, if anything I'd say Romney's numbers are stagnant. And he's so boring, I have a hard time seeing him coming out with anything that could hurt Obama enough to make a difference.

When you call him a secret-Muslim socialist fascist christ-hater than there's not much of anywhere to go from there.
 
The Economist is reporting that he may have essentially blackmailed the government into forgiving bad Bain debts.

Interesting, if anything I'd say Romney's numbers are stagnant. And he's so boring, I have a hard time seeing him coming out with anything that could hurt Obama enough to make a difference.

When you call him a secret-Muslim socialist fascist christ-hater than there's not much of anywhere to go from there.

Apart from that most damning of accusations - that he tried to slow the effects of climate change.

*shudders*
 
Interesting, if anything I'd say Romney's numbers are stagnant. And he's so boring, I have a hard time seeing him coming out with anything that could hurt Obama enough to make a difference.

He doesn't have to; the economy is still in a mess and many don't see more spending as the answer. Around 70% of the electorate think we are going in the wrong direction. Many have lost hope and want a change. The hard part is Obama is very likeable and Romney has the personality of a loofah.

All Romney's camp have to do is humanize him a little, which they have done fairly effectively in the last couple of weeks. His family life, church and volunteerism will appeal to a large number of Americans. If they continue on that path and keep the economy and Obama's record at the forefront who knows what will happen.
 
He also still has the GNP of Swaziland to spend

That will also help a lot. There has definitely been a shift in strategy from the Romney camp and backers in the last month. The adverts have been less negative and more factual. Split 50:50 between adverts about Mitt and the rest about the economy and Obama's record.
 
That will also help a lot. There has definitely been a shift in strategy from the Romney camp and backers in the last month. The adverts have been less negative and more factual. Split 50:50 between adverts about Mitt and the rest about the economy and Obama's record.

Actually,

Mitt went more positive when Obama went negative. Doesn't surprise me that the approval ratings of both candidates have been in reverse, they are doing the EXACT opposite of people's general impressions of them both.

Romney needs to come across as competent, and a nice guy. The Super-PACs will probably do enough heavy-hitting on Obama without Romney getting involved. Long way to go yet.
 
I think when people talk about the campaigns going positive or negative, they largely mean the super-pacs.

Romney's original plan was to appeal to independents by running with 'Obama's a nice guy and means well, but he's been shit at running the economy, so vote for non-Obama.' But due to the polls flatlining for months, he's clearly decided something needs to change, so he's picked Ryan to go for the jugular and bring out the base, and set about presenting himself as not just non-Obama, but a human non-Obama.
 
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