Bit more QE and other stimuli to get a dead-cat bounce out of the economy and Obama's home and hosed.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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He would struggle to get an stimuli through now. Apart from it being very transparent the Reps wouldn't pass it.
According to Krugman, what would do it more than QE would be to talk down inflation targets for a bit.
But Bernanke seems to be totally paralysed by fear of looking partisan. Even though the GOP will try to sack him anyway if they get in.
Everyone should want to fire Bernanke.
I always feel sorry for Bernanke. He knows perfectly well that the economy is not really controllable by the tools he has at his disposal. He's like a driver on a ruunaway train who hopes it'll slow down by hitting an upslope.
Gets the feeling you are a right winger
Not a big fan of Krugman, but he's correct here.
The market's already priced >100% of QE3 anyway, the idiots.
I bet that if most republican voters lived for a couple of years in a western/central european country with access to all the services their party demonizes then when they went back to the US they would demand equal services, or they are too stupid to fight for their own well being.
Nate Silver has Obama at almost 308. The highest I have seen this in the last couple of months. He shows Obama having a 59% chance of winning Florida.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
I highly doubt that unless they were unemployed republicans. I would hate to go back to the UK to pay higher taxes for inferior health and dental care. You can make a good case for socialized everything but the American model also suits a large percentage of the population.
I would wait until about a week after the DNC finishes for a more accurate readout. Obama will probably win the debates, so if he's ahead ten days from now, Silver's stats will probably end up correct.
Florida is definitely crucial for Romney. There is no model that has him losing Florida and becoming President.
agree.
I also think one of the reasons Nate's model has Obama's electoral votes growing is that nothing major has really changed with the economy nor the polls. and we are only 2 months away from the election.
True. I'm sure a lot of money will be spent there in the next 8 weeks or so.
They started a couple of months ago. I am sure the next eight weeks will be unbearable. That god for cable, DVRs and remote controls.
Chuck Norris asks you to stand with god and country and not vote for Obama...
Edit: This must be a "Funny or Die" video, right?
Edit: This must be a "Funny or Die" video, right?
I'm pretty sure she just called Romney the last, best hope for man on Earth, and Obama the first step into a thousand years of darkness.
Christ on a stick. (Edit: that sounds a lot more offensive than I thought. I'll allow it.)
Christ on a stick. (Edit: that sounds a lot more offensive than I thought. I'll allow it.)
I cant get over how good Chuck Norris looks.
....still he must have taken a lot a kicks in his heads.
....still he must have taken a lot a kicks in his heads.
This is a rare occasion though where 538's not all that reliable. They build in expectations of a 4-point convention bounce into the model. So all that's really happened over the last week is that Romney hasn't got that big a bounce, and the model's penalised him for it. The same will probably happen to Obama after this week, bringing the gap back to where we've grown used to it being.
He says himself to take the model's predictions with a pinch of salt during the conventions. Not really sure why he's chosen to set it up that way.
Because that's what usually has happened. The fact that it's not happened is suggestive of something different, but it's not immediately clear what that is. If Obama's numbers similarly show little or no bounce after the Democrats' convention, then it just means that people aren't tuning into the conventions to size up the candidates' the way they have in the past. If Obama's numbers do get the traditional convention bounce, then it probably means the Republican convention didn't get the job done, in which case the model is right to presume a diminution of Romney's chances.
That must be why he's pandering to medicaid recipients and immigrants.....
All tied up on the combined polls now, 46.4% each.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
Obama's intrade odds went up slightly to 58%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
Obama's intrade odds went up slightly to 58%.
That Chuck Norris bit is completely looney bin material. Holy shit. Batshit crazy!
Oh Chuck... you lost me at "freedom"..
Why do Americans seem to think they are the only ones with "freedom". I bet someone in the RNC wanted to copyright that word.
Also, I dont think its a particularly free country -- controlled by the religious zealots and the politically correct Ihni binni dimi diniwiny anitaime. You dont always get to say/see what you think you ought to say/see. How is that "freedom"?
There is certainly more socially acceptable variance, culturally, politically, sexually in Europe than in the States.
Its Texas -- Ted Nugent, I love catscratch fever but....
I think Ted's looking more like a victim of catscratch fever!
they sound like zombies.
truly scary.
truly scary.
I love when Nugent goes on about things that never happened, and follows it up with "let's just pretend that never happened".
Gee, Ted, 'dya think we should?
I think Ted Nugent just might be one of the most despicable people ever. I hope he gets raped by a bear.
Well today Nate says:
Wouldn't it have made more sense to leave the model without a bounce assumption, and if the bounce came simply comment that it might well be temporary. Either way he's having to basically say, "don't put too much faith in the model this week".
It's annoying cos you can't look at that trendline without getting your hopes up, even though you know it's likely coming down again next week.
Easy there, I'm Texan and not all of us are batshit crazy.
So basically he's agreeing with me.
I don't think he can, though. The point of his model is relying on the data from past elections to provide a norm for the present cycle's data to be compared to. Just deciding "nope, conventions don't give bounces any more" between the two conventions in this cycle would be to discard a major and established data point due to a lessening trend.
If there is a new norm with regard to convention bounces, he's got to wait until the data comes in confirming that, before he alters his model.
good point. Texas is fast becoming a 'progressive' state.
I visited Dallas a couple years back, folks seemed really nice and very progressive actually. Could have just been Dallas though.
So basically he's agreeing with me.
I don't think he can, though. The point of his model is relying on the data from past elections to provide a norm for the present cycle's data to be compared to. Just deciding "nope, conventions don't give bounces any more" between the two conventions in this cycle would be to discard a major and established data point due to a lessening trend.
If there is a new norm with regard to convention bounces, he's got to wait until the data comes in confirming that, before he alters his model.
Also Silver's model built in a 4 point bounce. Given that he's estimating that Romney got between a 2 to 3 point bounce from the convention, it isn't far off.
We'll know in a week or so I suppose.
The other factor in play is this:
By Gallup's metrics, Romney's speech was less convincing than any in the last three decades. The most telling thing is that nearly as many independent voters came away saying they were less likely to vote for Romney as more likely. Convention bounces may be diminishing, but it's also possible that Romney and the 2012 RNC just sucked at convincing the voters.
By Gallup's metrics, Romney's speech was less convincing than any in the last three decades. The most telling thing is that nearly as many independent voters came away saying they were less likely to vote for Romney as more likely. Convention bounces may be diminishing, but it's also possible that Romney and the 2012 RNC just sucked at convincing the voters.
"Our country could go down the path of socialism or something much worse"
What, you mean like a homophobic, misogynistic theocracy Chuck? Btw, are those Klan robes behind them at the back?
Americas continued wilful misunderstanding of what socialism is never fails to annoy me.
A lot of the Florida vote would shit if you told them that Ben-Gurion and Golda Meir were social democrats. The repubs love to talk about Israel and how they support them without ever acknowledging the Israeli form of democracy. Admittedly the current Likud is more like the current repubs, but Israel has a strong history of social welfare that would make teapartiers reach for their M-16s and angrily marching behind Chuck and the Nuge.
Chuck Norris's wife would get it.
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