Seeing as I am an Obama voter than is highly unlikely.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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Seeing as I am an Obama voter than is highly unlikely.
has this flipped? I saw the dems being higher.
The newer polls will be after Romney's refusal to show his taxes.
way to go though?
BTW Rassmussen and Gallup are polls that favour the republicans
You're looking at national polls with a rather large margin of error. NPR had a 20 minute piece with more details polls in the swing States. They had them neck and neck at 46%, with only 3% still undecided. When they asked will you definitely be voting the GOP had a much higher positive response, 85% to 75%.
I think Obama will still win but with it so close and a certain amount of empathy amongst people that voted for him last time around anything is possible. The economy and Obamacare are two issues that will hurt Obama in the coming months.
the economy will be the big factor I agree.
Support for the health Care Act...is split..in fact with the President getting into the details of the Ryan budget for Medicare for example and other benefits of the ACA, more will support it..
And the tax return issue is not going away. Romney did not disclose fully his 2010 filings. He conveniently left out the Foreign accounts ownership forms.
wait for the grilling to start.
It is possible to like Obama and dislike the ACA. Lots of progressives feel that way, let alone centre-righters (by UK standards) like msj.
The tax return issue is Romney's Achilles heel. Its rather ironic his own father was the first politician to release multiple tax returns and he seems so reluctant.
I think Obamacase will be a major factor. If more people support I doubt it will be swing voters or on the fence. I would have voted Obama in 08 and will vote for him this time but the ACA is an awful attempt at introducing public healthcare that will fail. Its a shame really because a single payer health system is badly needed.
YES!
I love him, he is a slick statesman and a great President. I am in favor of public healthcare but the ACA is an awful compromise and it will turn the public against the idea of public healthcare for years.
hmmm. have to disagree fellas. yes it is flawed...thank the two turncoats in the Senate.
majority of the benefits kick in 2014.
I think this will pave the way for single payer...which in itself has its issues. Probabaly what will happen is a best of both worlds...I hope so.
have you noticed Romney has completely moved away from Health Care?
majority of the benefits kick in 2014.
I think this will pave the way for single payer...which in itself has its issues. Probabaly what will happen is a best of both worlds...I hope so.
have you noticed Romney has completely moved away from Health Care?
Are you in a swing state?
yes and no. For Presidential elections we have always gone Democrat.
In 2010 the GOP took the legislature but we got a Democrat governor. The GOP in Minnesota is bankrupt..literally. Dems are expected to sweep back in.
Wisconsin next door is a little 'less' democrat but usually comes in for the Dem candidate in the end.
Its just the advertising budget is being thrown at the swing States. We are getting plenty of Romney healthcare adverts. In fact the GOP adverts have been pretty effective in the last few days. I can't wait for the damned election to be over though....fecking adverts drive you mad.
we do get some of em...the GOP is running its time for change ad. Obama also has been running his adverts. I dont even pay attention anymore.
I can understand Florida being bombarded... must be expensive though.
think this GOP voucher plan for Medicare will have an impact there.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html
Obama looking good in Florida.
Obama looking good in Florida.
I see a few problems assuming that based on those polls:
- Tiny sample sizes.
- Large margin of errors.
- GOP's higher voter enthusiasm rating.
The enthusiasm percentages are currently 75% to Obama and 85% to Romney. If that carries through to November it will be very bad news for Obama.
The RCP average of Obama being up by 1.1% is probably correct. Its going to be very close, unless something between now and election day changes.
Virginia appears to be tightening up as well. Although Obama is still ahead in most relevant swing states.
Virginia appears to be tightening up as well. Although Obama is still ahead in most relevant swing states.
1.1% up is nothing considering GOP voters are 10% more likely to vote. Obama's voting base from 2008 doesn't quite have the same enthusiasm for various reasons, and that is creating apathy. It easy to tell someone on the phone you will/would vote for Obama BUT when those same people are asked are you definitely going to vote the Obama voters are at 75%, with the GOP voters at 85%.
If that remains the same thru November we could easily see a 3-4% Obama lead evaporate away when the polls open.
If that remains the same thru November we could easily see a 3-4% Obama lead evaporate away when the polls open.
mjs, you keep going on about that one enthusiasm poll (in July), but ignore the fact that in 2008, the Democrats' GOTV ground game was massively better than McCain's. Romney's got more money than McCain had, but he can't be using SuperPAC millions for that, and in any case it wasn't just money, it was organization as well.
That's all irrelevant if Obama retains his lead in the swing states. Romney could well be in the lead in national polls and still lose the election by 50 plus electoral votes.
Obama is nowhere near the cert that people think he is. There are so many big money interests against him that are going to flood the swing states and the economy is still struggling, it's really up in the air.
The same piece on NPR had the swing state polls with the enthusiasm ratings. They had them neck and neck at 46% in those states, with only 3% undecided. That coupled with the enthusiasm ratings makes me very nervous.
Obama came into power on a wave of enthusiasm. Millions of new voters that had never voted before. They voted for him because of the hope and promises, plus 8 years of GW was fresh in the memory, and there was a lot of enthusiasm to vote the first AA president.
Because so many new voters were involved in 2008 I think the enthusiasm rating should be monitored very closely. Hopefully the democratic local organizations are very active getting people out in November.
It's all going to come down to the debates and Obama is an excellent debater.
I agree somewhat with this. Romney does not have any legs to stand on and he'd have to be a better debater than Obama to even give the impression that he's the right man. But he isnt. Romney isn't impressive in any way. He's just rich and dull. Nobody likes him, but the republicans will vote anyone but Obama anyway.
Romney will have to back up his 'job creator' card....
hard to do if there is now ample proof that he was a job outsourcer...and even more evidence in those tax returns he does not want to show.
btw his 2010 return does not disclose the relevant foreign investment form. wonder why....
hard to do if there is now ample proof that he was a job outsourcer...and even more evidence in those tax returns he does not want to show.
btw his 2010 return does not disclose the relevant foreign investment form. wonder why....
What boggles the mind is that how people actually believe they are job creators. I have a couple of startups. My primary operational goals are to ensure positive cashflow and not spend unnecessarily. I outsource as much as I can to keep my internal headcount down.
My objective is to generate profit and not to create (permanent) job as much as possible.
Are people that stupid to believe that Romney's role at Bain besides making money (for his investors) is to create jobs?
Secondly being a business person is so diametrically opposite to running a government organisation. In all my dealings with government ministries, the way they work is so counter-intuitive to how a business runs... objectives and accountability measurements are different.
Are the voters that seriously stupid?
They voted Bush in twice..
Just saw this quote from Romney...he just can't seem to escape himself!
"You Olympians, however, know you didn’t get here solely on your own power,” said Romney, who on Friday will attend the Opening Ceremonies of this year’s Summer Olympics. “For most of you, loving parents, sisters or brothers, encouraged your hopes, coaches guided, communities built venues in order to organize competitions. All Olympians stand on the shoulders of those who lifted them. We’ve already cheered the Olympians, let’s also cheer the parents, coaches, and communities. All right! [pumps fist].”
http://themoderatevoice.com/153994/...ey-told-olympians-they-didnt-get-there-alone/
"You Olympians, however, know you didn’t get here solely on your own power,” said Romney, who on Friday will attend the Opening Ceremonies of this year’s Summer Olympics. “For most of you, loving parents, sisters or brothers, encouraged your hopes, coaches guided, communities built venues in order to organize competitions. All Olympians stand on the shoulders of those who lifted them. We’ve already cheered the Olympians, let’s also cheer the parents, coaches, and communities. All right! [pumps fist].”
http://themoderatevoice.com/153994/...ey-told-olympians-they-didnt-get-there-alone/
Jon Stewart is going to love this. Is there a single issue that Romney hasn't contradicted himself on in the past.
"Those are my priciples
..and if you don't like them ...I have others."
..and if you don't like them ...I have others."
Bain Capital Created 'Demoralizing' Culture of Layoffs At Florida Plant
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/23/bain-capital-layoffs-dade-behring_n_1695960.html
WASHINGTON -- When Dade Behring started cutting employees under Bain Capital's management in the late '90s, Cindy Hewitt was on the front lines. As a human resources manager for the Dade East plant in Miami, Hewitt had to decide which employees had needed skills and whose jobs were expendable.
News of the latest layoffs trickled down to the Dade company cafeteria. The room could seat more than 1,000, and it had been enough of a draw that it even offered breakfast.
But as the layoffs hit, the mood in the cafeteria could be as somber as a funeral, Hewitt recalled. Multiple members of the same family might be gathered to commiserate over being laid off one by one by one. Some of them had worked for the medical diagnostics company for more than a decade.
Hewitt saw her colleagues crying on a daily basis and loudly celebrating on the rare occasion that someone found a comparable new job. "There was a tremendous sense of loss and this kind of outpouring of grief and mourning as every day they waited for the announcement of who was going next," she said. "People were on pins and needles. Who's going next? They're worried for themselves, worried for their co-workers, worried for their families. They'd talk about how they were going to send their kids to college. It was an incredibly depressing and demoralizing environment."
Since the Republican presidential primary, Dade Behring, which made blood-testing machines and conducted animal tests at its Miami plant, has become something of a focus. Bain Capital, GOP presidential hope Mitt Romney's firm, had bought Dade and shuttered its factory in Puerto Rico in 1998. The closings continued under Bain's management.
It's become a familiar tale about Romney and Bain's business dealings. The New York Times reported that Bain pushed the profitable company into bankruptcy. The Miami Herald followed with its own chronicle of the mass layoffs and mass profits for Romney and company. The Tampa Bay Times reported that Dade had received millions in tax breaks to promote job creation in Puerto Rico one year before it closed the factory there.
Bain, of course, walked away with a huge profit. In 1999, the private equity firm grabbed $242 million after it pressured Dade to borrow more millions to buy up Bain's shares in the company.
So many Dade workers lost their jobs -- 1,700 in the United States, 850 in Miami alone -- that the Bain-Dade dealings have become a symbol of corporate bloodletting and a painful memory to those who witnessed the layoffs.
Fred Gregory, an information technology consultant, said he was brought in to assist the plant closing in Miami. The cafeteria scene also stuck with him. At a certain point, he told HuffPost, he stopped eating lunch there. "I didn't want to see the women crying," he explained.
"You could walk in there and hear a pin drop," Gregory said. "You could see the emptiness. It was just huddled-up sheep. It was pathetic. It was heartbreaking, heartwrenching. You just want to hug them."
The layoffs continued for months and months. Gregory saw people fired and workers running out of the Dade offices in tears. "These people were scared to death," he said. "This was their livelihood. Some people couldn't bear it. It was a horrible place to work." Some would get an hour's notice before being shown the door.
The plant added higher fencing and concertina wire, Gregory said. Each day, a pair of security guards would check his back seat and trunk on the way out to make sure he wasn't stealing any office supplies. "It was all so well orchestrated," he said. "And so evil."
The Romney campaign, Bain Capital, and Siemens, which bought Dade Behring's operations in 2007, did not respond to requests for comment.
Michael Rumbin had been a Dade vice president. "No one ever came up to me to ask if we could create more jobs," he told HuffPost. "There was very little in the way of job creation. It was a business undertaking in which the Bain Capital people created a tremendous amount of wealth for themselves and their investors."
Hewitt has an idea of what the corporate bigwigs were doing at the time. One incident still sticks with her.
In the summer of 1998, amid mass layoffs and mandatory overtime at the Dade East plant, she saw workers crowded around a glass executive suite. Some shook their heads and walked away, and others just stood there staring, she recalled. She walked over to check out what was going on and found several department heads putting golf balls in the office.
"Here are these people whose lives are upside down, doing mandatory overtime, and the executives are playing golf where all the employees can see," Hewitt said. "I was so upset that I walked in and picked up a golf ball and said, 'Get out and go to the golf course if you don't have anything to do.' It was the most callous, insensitive thing I had ever witnessed. I was completely dumbfounded."
Hewitt said the golf putting incident was so traumatizing for her that she quit her job the following month and began a career in animal advocacy. She never took another job in human resources again, despite having a master's degree in the field.
"There's a part of me that tries very, very hard to not think about that experience," she said. "I felt I had been a part of treating people very poorly, and I could not in good conscience put myself in that kind of position again."
Job creator in chief
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/23/bain-capital-layoffs-dade-behring_n_1695960.html
WASHINGTON -- When Dade Behring started cutting employees under Bain Capital's management in the late '90s, Cindy Hewitt was on the front lines. As a human resources manager for the Dade East plant in Miami, Hewitt had to decide which employees had needed skills and whose jobs were expendable.
News of the latest layoffs trickled down to the Dade company cafeteria. The room could seat more than 1,000, and it had been enough of a draw that it even offered breakfast.
But as the layoffs hit, the mood in the cafeteria could be as somber as a funeral, Hewitt recalled. Multiple members of the same family might be gathered to commiserate over being laid off one by one by one. Some of them had worked for the medical diagnostics company for more than a decade.
Hewitt saw her colleagues crying on a daily basis and loudly celebrating on the rare occasion that someone found a comparable new job. "There was a tremendous sense of loss and this kind of outpouring of grief and mourning as every day they waited for the announcement of who was going next," she said. "People were on pins and needles. Who's going next? They're worried for themselves, worried for their co-workers, worried for their families. They'd talk about how they were going to send their kids to college. It was an incredibly depressing and demoralizing environment."
Since the Republican presidential primary, Dade Behring, which made blood-testing machines and conducted animal tests at its Miami plant, has become something of a focus. Bain Capital, GOP presidential hope Mitt Romney's firm, had bought Dade and shuttered its factory in Puerto Rico in 1998. The closings continued under Bain's management.
It's become a familiar tale about Romney and Bain's business dealings. The New York Times reported that Bain pushed the profitable company into bankruptcy. The Miami Herald followed with its own chronicle of the mass layoffs and mass profits for Romney and company. The Tampa Bay Times reported that Dade had received millions in tax breaks to promote job creation in Puerto Rico one year before it closed the factory there.
Bain, of course, walked away with a huge profit. In 1999, the private equity firm grabbed $242 million after it pressured Dade to borrow more millions to buy up Bain's shares in the company.
So many Dade workers lost their jobs -- 1,700 in the United States, 850 in Miami alone -- that the Bain-Dade dealings have become a symbol of corporate bloodletting and a painful memory to those who witnessed the layoffs.
Fred Gregory, an information technology consultant, said he was brought in to assist the plant closing in Miami. The cafeteria scene also stuck with him. At a certain point, he told HuffPost, he stopped eating lunch there. "I didn't want to see the women crying," he explained.
"You could walk in there and hear a pin drop," Gregory said. "You could see the emptiness. It was just huddled-up sheep. It was pathetic. It was heartbreaking, heartwrenching. You just want to hug them."
The layoffs continued for months and months. Gregory saw people fired and workers running out of the Dade offices in tears. "These people were scared to death," he said. "This was their livelihood. Some people couldn't bear it. It was a horrible place to work." Some would get an hour's notice before being shown the door.
The plant added higher fencing and concertina wire, Gregory said. Each day, a pair of security guards would check his back seat and trunk on the way out to make sure he wasn't stealing any office supplies. "It was all so well orchestrated," he said. "And so evil."
The Romney campaign, Bain Capital, and Siemens, which bought Dade Behring's operations in 2007, did not respond to requests for comment.
Michael Rumbin had been a Dade vice president. "No one ever came up to me to ask if we could create more jobs," he told HuffPost. "There was very little in the way of job creation. It was a business undertaking in which the Bain Capital people created a tremendous amount of wealth for themselves and their investors."
Hewitt has an idea of what the corporate bigwigs were doing at the time. One incident still sticks with her.
In the summer of 1998, amid mass layoffs and mandatory overtime at the Dade East plant, she saw workers crowded around a glass executive suite. Some shook their heads and walked away, and others just stood there staring, she recalled. She walked over to check out what was going on and found several department heads putting golf balls in the office.
"Here are these people whose lives are upside down, doing mandatory overtime, and the executives are playing golf where all the employees can see," Hewitt said. "I was so upset that I walked in and picked up a golf ball and said, 'Get out and go to the golf course if you don't have anything to do.' It was the most callous, insensitive thing I had ever witnessed. I was completely dumbfounded."
Hewitt said the golf putting incident was so traumatizing for her that she quit her job the following month and began a career in animal advocacy. She never took another job in human resources again, despite having a master's degree in the field.
"There's a part of me that tries very, very hard to not think about that experience," she said. "I felt I had been a part of treating people very poorly, and I could not in good conscience put myself in that kind of position again."
Job creator in chief
Solid proof that anything can happen. No wonder people lose hope when they look at politics in this country.
Looking for hope is one thing but to look at all the wrong places ala Bush, Mr Job Creator Mittens etc? This indicates either desperately blind or plain stupid.
It wont and you are hung up on this. Once the debate process kicks in, Obama should clean his clock and change those numbers.
Its not a case of being "hung up" on anything, it was the finding of a poll/survey on NPR. In the last three weeks the gap has narrowed from 4% to 1%, and its trending downwards.
The voter enthusiasm could be extremely important because Obama had a lot of first time votes. His approval rating is even poor amongst his own voter base. He can have a great round of debates but will that be enough to overcome his record.
I hope Obama puts together an attack ad on Romney flip-flopping on things, there's so many videos/quotes out there on it.
I still don't see why you bother debating the merits of individual polls when 538 sorts all that shit out for you...
Obama's favourability numbers are better than his job approval ones, which might mitigate them a bit. So I can't see the debates mattering that much, as no-one listens to policy in debates and Obama's greater likability is already factored into his ratings. The problem is the economy, which is about to get even worse when the Euro goes bang.
Obama's favourability numbers are better than his job approval ones, which might mitigate them a bit. So I can't see the debates mattering that much, as no-one listens to policy in debates and Obama's greater likability is already factored into his ratings. The problem is the economy, which is about to get even worse when the Euro goes bang.
Except that while stock markets might react instantly, employment lags. It's not like some manager somewhere has his finger on the trigger saying, "Well Greece has been booted out of the Euro. Sorry Jones, I'll have to let you go." Budgets tend to be assessed on a quarterly basis, if not an annual one. Even the stock market going down has limited downside for Obama, since if everyone says it's because of the Eurozone debt crisis, then what the feck is Obama supposed to do about that? Invade Brussels? Unless the Euro goes bang pretty much now, it's not going to go bang in time to have that much impact on an American election in November.
It's going bang pretty much now.
Dear US voter.
The financial crisis predates Obama. Obama's key economic policy responses are a continuation of policies initiated under the last, Republican administration. The economic malaise is global. It isn't Obama's fault.
Hope this helps.
The financial crisis predates Obama. Obama's key economic policy responses are a continuation of policies initiated under the last, Republican administration. The economic malaise is global. It isn't Obama's fault.
Hope this helps.
- Status