Na it's over, Dave Wasserman already called it but it will be within 2 points. Not enough outstanding vote to make up the deficit.
US Politics
- Thread starter Nick 0208 Ldn
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Na it's over, Dave Wasserman already called it but it will be within 2 points. Not enough outstanding vote to make up the deficit.
The Fed won't let us get close to hyperinflation, they'll jack up interest rates and pull back on QE amongst other things
Ya, the difference is that the forecasters think Murphy will hold on due to the outstanding vote remaining in Dem areas, but only just.
You think so? How much will debt servicing cost if they jack up interest rates? We're at 130% debt-to-GDP, jacking up rates will cause a significant portion of the budget to just servicing the debt. This aint the 70-80's anymore, Fed is running out of options.
He'll win in the end I'm sure. Just a bit surprising it's this close in the first place.
It's because Biden's approval is in the dumps and is dragging everything else down. It's down because people are tired of COVID, rising energy costs, and he and the Dems are losing the messaging war. The good news is that there is time for things to change and if the current vaccination trends continue, then COVID will be much less of an issue and hopefully the inflation will have eased off by this time next year.
IIRC interest rates were jacked up to double digits to combat the inflation crisis of the 70s
It's a shitty choice... I think the Fed would do anything to keep inflation from running out of control, but they are almost out of runway
The optimist in me thinks that the temporary scarcity due to supply chain issues is causing price spikes across the board and once goods start flowing again prices will go back down. I may be grasping at straws with this one.
12:38 am EDT
MSNBC calling Virginia for the racist Governor Youngkin
The Dem candidate Mcauliffe is a creepy lobbyist. Figured he would lose to the Trump guy
EDIT:
The NJ race for governor is now 65 votes out of over 2 million in favor of the Republican. 7 am EDT
CNN showing the outstanding votes are in overwhelmingly Dem districts.
MSNBC calling Virginia for the racist Governor Youngkin
The Dem candidate Mcauliffe is a creepy lobbyist. Figured he would lose to the Trump guy
EDIT:
The NJ race for governor is now 65 votes out of over 2 million in favor of the Republican. 7 am EDT
CNN showing the outstanding votes are in overwhelmingly Dem districts.
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So it looks like all the sudden VA is going to have a GOP Gov, Lt. Gov, AG, and house delegate majority. With NJ so much tighter than it should be regardless of result.
What a mess for dems.
What a mess for dems.
Wtf Virigina.
And I guess Murphy will just pull through, but how the feck is NJ race this close?
The Midterms are going to even more brutal than I thought.
And I guess Murphy will just pull through, but how the feck is NJ race this close?
The Midterms are going to even more brutal than I thought.
Americans are so fecking stupid.
Oh dear...
Maybe stop bringing out Obama and Biden, especially when he is dropping in the polls. Democrats have learned nothing from 2010 and look like repeating history in 2022. Big Corporations run the country, and politicians seem more beholden to them than their constituency.
Gotta credit big corps on how they've managed to get politicians to convince masses they're really for the people.
You know it’s bad when Republicans can position their economic policies in office as more populist than what the Dems are proposing
Tbh even by some miracle the progressives had control of the Democratic I'm not sure they would do any better. This stuff isn't about policy.
That dude was happy to go on national TV and peal-clutch about "critical race theory" then in the same sentence fully admitted to not having a clue about what the TERM even meant. Anyone thinking progressives can reach out to these people with policy is living in dream world. They aren't even going to fall for the Biden "nothing will change" mantra. They live in a world of social media and hysteria. Bernie et al going into VA and talking about medicare for all is more likely to be booed for being a marxist deep-state agent.
It's no shock to me that "less educated white women" swing hard R when all the GOP talk about is "CRT" aka talking about black people in schools. If people want to summarise one legacy of Trump, he radicalises these people to get interested in politics. If you have a shit campaign like the dems did in VA, these fecking lunatics are still going out there to vote for the trump-backed moron.
Why am I imagining Foghorn Leghorn? He also refers to himself in the third person and checks off the typical right-wing bingo boogey card.
The simplest analysis that makes sense:
Biden is roughly -8.
The 2 governors are roughly 8 points worse than the 2020 result, seemingly a uniform swing in 2 different states.
The loss is a repudiation of Biden like 2017 in Virginia was a repudiation of Trump.
Biden's approval went negative for the first time during the afghan withdrawal, a move supported by voters from both parties before and during the event.
So, media framing matters much more than personal preferences.
If the party was actually a party and not 50 individuals, and so could have had passed any bills, it might have a better image and his approval would be marginally better, but I don't think it makes a substantial difference.
We gotta hope that Trump's health declines or he drops dead before 2024 because otherwise he's 100% getting back into office. Biden is a disaster.
Tbf the collage educated white women also hate Bernie and his platform and believe in slightly less insane shite. Would interesting to see income breakdown, is it just the same reactionary suburbs voting republican.
Cheers.
Have you seen what's been happening in Westminster for the last 11yrs? We really aren't far behind!
i see that. I just say it because I live here now and it’s my point of reference.
Actually I disagree to some extent, any gains that the GOP made in the suburbs yesterday would be wiped out if Trump comes back on the scene (which he will starting next year). That would likely be enough to limit the magnitude of losses currently staring the Dems in the face. To go on the offensive though, berbatrick is right that the messaging needs to be much better.
No president would have done better in the current state of affairs (global pandemic, inflation resulting from the recovery from the pandemic). The results yesterday fall in line with strong historical trends. The difference between Biden and Trump is that with the former, we have a chance to have a strong economic upswing next year whereas with the latter, the country would still be dealing with new waves of COVID.
EDIT: Should clarify that even if Trump is front and center, the Dems would still lose the midterms at the current rate, just not by as much.
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the hand wringing
Some real interesting discussions on the Virginia election. Lots of blame at the Dems but also nuanced analysis that local elections are not the same as national elections.
(yes I read the old Reddit format )
(yes I read the old Reddit format
)Some real interesting discussions on the Virginia election. Lots of blame at the Dems but also nuanced analysis that local elections are not the same as national elections.
(yes I read the old Reddit format
CRT will absolutely be one of their major talking points all through the midterms.
From that same survey that said 30% of Americans believe violence might be necessary:
- Eight in ten Republicans (80%) agree that America is in danger of losing its culture and identity, compared to one-third of Democrats (33%)—a nearly 50-percentage-point difference.
- About eight in ten Republicans (79%), compared to 37% of Democrats, believe the American way of life needs to be protected from foreign influence.
- Republicans are nearly twice as likely as Democrats (70% vs. 36%) to say American culture and way of life have changed for the worse since the 1950s.
- Republicans (63%) are notably more likely than independents (37%) and Democrats (35%) to say being Christian is important to being truly American.
- A majority of Republicans (56%) agree that things have changed so much that they feel like a stranger in their own country, compared to only 31% of Democrats and 39% of independents. And 78% of Republicans who most trust far-right news outlets agree with that sentiment.
That last one is a direct result of most Americans not ever leaving their home state much less travel to another country.
fecking losers.P.S. It's not your country, kemosahbee.
Drama queens.
P.S. It's not your country, kemosahbee.
IIRC interest rates were jacked up to double digits to combat the inflation crisis of the 70s
It's a shitty choice... I think the Fed would do anything to keep inflation from running out of control, but they are almost out of runway
The optimist in me thinks that the temporary scarcity due to supply chain issues is causing price spikes across the board and once goods start flowing again prices will go back down. I may be grasping at straws with this one.
Different times unfortunately - yeah Volcker had to deal with 12-13% inflation, but as Fed Chairman he was able to hike up interest rates which while causing a pretty severe recession for a couple of years, it resulted in inflation rates going down and the economy experienced a boom and 40 years of declining rates.
The difference then vs now is the amount of the gov't debt as a percenteage of GDP... then it was ~30% (1981), now is 4-5x that. If the Fed increases rates now, then the debt servicing cost for the gov't will be huge. Currently, debt servicing takes about 2% of the Federal budget. I think analysts are calculating that if interest rates go up to 4-5% which is sort of like the historical norm, then up to 30% of the Federal budget will be needed just to service the debt. That will have grave consequences for a lot of social programs, healthcare programs Meidcare/Medicaid, unemployment rate etc.
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This dude spent $153 on his campaign, and beat NJ's longest-running state Dem senate president
Also: Of that $153... 67 was apparently spent at Dunkin Donuts.
Yikes.
A lot of happen in a year, but seems there is little doubt that 'education' (CRT) will be at the forefront of every GOP campaign in 2022.
Yikes.
A lot of happen in a year, but seems there is little doubt that 'education' (CRT) will be at the forefront of every GOP campaign in 2022.
Worth noting that the 45-64 age group was the strongest for Trump 2020/right-wing policy generally, so there's more than one effect going on here.
Last name checks out. DURRRRRRRR
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/anderso...lection-losses-do-you-take-any-blame-in-this/
This Bullshit has to stop. The progressives are the only one fighting for Biden's policies. This idea that progressives have lured Biden into a trance is borderline fox news style coverage.
McAuliffe ran a shit campaign and Manchin sinema are the ones blocking things.
This Bullshit has to stop. The progressives are the only one fighting for Biden's policies. This idea that progressives have lured Biden into a trance is borderline fox news style coverage.
McAuliffe ran a shit campaign and Manchin sinema are the ones blocking things.