I think the prediction is 30 seats but I think it will be quite a few more than that this time around. They will do extremely well in the European seats too (as always) next time about and the projection is only going to rise and rise on both fronts until the latter is not needed.
UK General Election 2015 | Conservatives win with an overall majority
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I'd be shocked if they win as many as 30, purely because they'll struggle to win out in a lot of areas. Give them another 5% or so of the vote and maybe they will, but if it's around 15-20% then 30 seats seems optimistic for a party that doesn't have a consolidated voter base in a lot of areas.
Most predictions for UKIP I've seen are around five to eight seats.
The Guardian article I read last year said they were on for 30 and I think they have grown in forecast since that report which was in October. In the report it gives UKIP an outside chance in my constituency and I can safely say they have more than an outside chance to win both of the seats here and I believe that to be the case in many more regions too. They will definitely win more than 5.
Dunno if you're a betting man but Betfair will give you about evens on this, at present.
Yeah, they'll go nowhere near twenty.
@MajorTom - if you think UKIP will continue to grow, what sort of party do you think they'll grow into? Most likely scenario ( of course IMO) if UKIP did get 30+ seats in the next election;
- The Tories form some sort of minority government propped up by UKIP on the economy, and key issues like an EU referendum.
- Britain votes to stay in the EU (see the polls), either helped by, or more likely in spite of Cameron's attempts to renegotiate our membership.
- Migration numbers are cut, but most likely in the easy areas (e.g. cash cow international students), and by increasingly anti-immigrant, anti-minority rhetoric from the British government.
- The 'UKIP wave' loses its appeal by 2020. A fairly left wing Labour government wins the election comfortably.
I doubt they'll still be around in 2020. Let's see whether the eurozone survives the next couple of years. If it fails and the EU retrenches am sure a massive pillar of their support will be lost.
If the EU referendum fails then I struggle to see UKIP remaining that popular, unless they have an SNP style surge afterwards, which is possible admittedly.
30's...optimistic 
Bear in mind the Liberal/SDP alliance in '83 got 23 seats with 25% of the vote, and that was with a well established Liberal party that had a long-standing stronghold in the south-west.
Bear in mind the Liberal/SDP alliance in '83 got 23 seats with 25% of the vote, and that was with a well established Liberal party that had a long-standing stronghold in the south-west.That will just depend on what happens in the EU. If countries leave which I think will happen before 2020 then the concensus of every party and voter will be inclined to re-evaluate their position and at that point in time UKIP will have much more than the 15% of votes that they look to get at minimum in this election. They are getting undersold with many estimations at this current time with their 5 seat prediction. People who don't usually vote will be having an impact at this election and those will be big numbers for UKIP. Strongholds are beginning to form and if they don't reach 30 at this point in time then that will be the case with ease at the next as it will sway with the percentage of voters and it will be in block areas. 30 seats is 8.5% of seats available and that is very achievable even in this election with 15% of (undersold) predictions. Time will tell but the ripple in the ocean is forming on all shores.
You can't just pick a number and say "yeah that's doable". UKIP would be delighted with 10 seats.
That's what predictions are when talking about elections, so yes you can and yes it is achievable. They would be delighted with 10, they'll be even more delighted if that figure gets doubled or tripled which is quite the possibility by any standard of calculations.
Possible, but fairly unlikely. 30 is very optimistic certainly, and you expected them to get quite a few more than that.
Here's a collection of semi-predictions from most of the main pollsters as of a few weeks ago: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...g-firms-place-their-bets-for-may-9955994.html
They aren't being dicks towards UKIP, there's just nothing in the data they study for a living that suggests UKIP can get even half that many seats. That's not to say it's impossible, but you may want to temper your expectations a little or risk being disappointed. I'd be fairly confident of the SNP outperforming UKIP (which will cause a havoc all of its own).
They aren't being dicks towards UKIP, there's just nothing in the data they study for a living that suggests UKIP can get even half that many seats. That's not to say it's impossible, but you may want to temper your expectations a little or risk being disappointed. I'd be fairly confident of the SNP outperforming UKIP (which will cause a havoc all of its own).
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
http://electionsetc.com/2015/01/16/...miliband-more-likely-to-become-pm-afterwards/
The top three searches on google for election forecasts. Two of them have UKIP winning three seats, and one which predicts they get 15% of the vote has them winning none.
Yeah, they're not getting 30 seats without a late surge.
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
http://electionsetc.com/2015/01/16/...miliband-more-likely-to-become-pm-afterwards/
The top three searches on google for election forecasts. Two of them have UKIP winning three seats, and one which predicts they get 15% of the vote has them winning none.
Yeah, they're not getting 30 seats without a late surge.
Is a reminder of what a load of crap FPP is.
Agreed, I don't like UKIP, but the idea that they could get 15-20% of the national vote but struggle to get any seats whatsoever is beyond a joke.
I'd be very entertained in watching the public reaction unfold to Labour winning more seats than anyone else despite losing the popular vote to the tories by a few percent. Not sure this would be possible anymore with the SNP rise, though.
Is there one of those voting for dummies infographics out yet that sums up where the various parties stand on key issues? Not that I'll be able to vote.
Like I said, the reason they get beat with that stick is largely due to Farage and co saying daft things. He initially refused to fire and defended a candidate for saying "chinky" and "poofter" only recently. Which other party leaders would do that other than BNP? And yeah a lot of the people from UKIP making inflammatory remarks have been removed, that doesn't change the fact that parliamentary candidates saying these things come disproportionately from UKIP. I've not seen anyone say their immigration policy is racist (though I'm sure a few SJW types think it is)
I am a betting man and I take that as the best forecast available for now.
Not always. The betting sites' odds are worked out to minimise their risk, heavily influenced by what people have already bet. Doesn't always end up being that the bookies' favourite is the most likely option (see - niche markets like the transfer window).
You have some understanding when you say 'what people have already bet'. Bookies don't care who wins, they simply try and make their book as exactly as possible to the bets that have been made with them, less their percentage. They have to take a starting position of course, but they quickly adjust that, and would scale down any bet that threatened their percentage and adjust the odds again thereafter. All in all though, they are still the best guide to chances that there is.
You're right of course, but my point is only that 'not always' is an important distinction - I've found pretty large discrepancies between (genuine) expert opinions and bookies odds a few times.
In the 2012 US Presidential Election you had the pollster/ statistician Nate Silver giving Obama a 95%+ chance based on the polls in all of the important states on the day of the election, it was a fairly certain outcome when you analysed the vast data available. Over here we had the 'news' media (print and broadcasting) painting the election as a close run event to boost interest, and get people to follow their coverage. That can't help but affect how people see the election, and therefore the UK odds. UK bookies had Obama at about 1/4 the morning of the election, meaning you had a huge chance to exploit that gap in perspectives. I'd guess the surge in UKIP media coverage is a similar incident (overstating their position in the eyes of punters), but I've nothing to back that up.
If we factor in the two recently acquired Tory constituencies and wherever Farage chooses to stand, it is to what extent UKIP can breakout beyond this bridgehead that remains the unknown. However the notion of twenty-eight gains or anything of that order sounds more than just a tad extreme to my ears. Considering our political system and the imponderables of the TV debates, the party could be proud of achieving somewhere between 6-10 seats.
Naturally, they'll be hoping for a low turnout, and i do think we'll see a continuation of the modern-day decline in that particular department.
Naturally, they'll be hoping for a low turnout, and i do think we'll see a continuation of the modern-day decline in that particular department.
At every election it feels like this was one is more important than the last one, but agree with Nick, it generally isn't reflected in the turnout. I reckon the turnout in Scotland will be strong.
Am baffled that people are talking about Ukip winning up to 30 seats. This is one of the major reasons why I am nit keen on democracy. There are swathes of people that are simply too uneducated or too stupid to be allowed to vote.
Am baffled that people are talking about Ukip winning up to 30 seats. This is one of the major reasons why I am nit keen on democracy. There are swathes of people that are simply too uneducated or too stupid to be allowed to vote.
Fairly populist, but significant policy to be announced:
"Ed Miliband wants to announce policy of cutting maximum university fees for students by a third, from £9,000 to £6,000."
Which would make a lot of sense, considering it was assumed in 2010 that most universities would charge £6,000.
"Ed Miliband wants to announce policy of cutting maximum university fees for students by a third, from £9,000 to £6,000."
Which would make a lot of sense, considering it was assumed in 2010 that most universities would charge £6,000.
Also, taken from that article:
This pressure to 'balance the books' is such bullshit, of little value. A growing economy should be investing in its people.
Labour's own fault really for allowing the blame for the global recession to be placed on themselves, they now have to prove they're "responsible" at every juncture.
Here's the awful awful Green interview from yesterday.
For a better quality video try this one
For a better quality video try this one
Can you imagine if Cameron, Milliband or Clegg gave an interview like that? Would be trending more than Kim kardashians arse.
Definitely. Won't be quite as strong as the referendum, but it'll probably be higher than the UK average since people are engaged up here at the moment. The newfound SNP vote isn't going away certainly, and pretty much anyone who voted Yes is going to vote for them, barring a smaller group who will either go back to one of the big three or the Scottish Greens. Then the hardcore Labour support will probably turn out to try and minimise the kicking which it seems like they're almost certain to get up here.
The Green part could do with rebranding. The problem I think they have is that they're perceived to be environmental nut jobs (which some are) but if they tried to display themselves a bit differently they could gain further popularity.
Anyway, when do parties usually publish their manifestos? Will be the first time I can vote in a general election, so I'm actually looking forward to it!
Anyway, when do parties usually publish their manifestos? Will be the first time I can vote in a general election, so I'm actually looking forward to it!
Really terrible interview. I quite like some of the Greens' ideas and think it's refreshing to see an anti-establishment voice, but they don't seem to have thought through many of their policies, and Bennett's deflections of "I'd invite you to look at our website" were just as bad as what we often dislike many Labour/Tory/LD politicians for doing. Basically not answering questions. She could potentially struggle in the debates.
Which is only fair I guess since they are heads of bigger/powerful party's. Although it is odd that for a car crash interview it's hardly got any notice.
I'm in the same boat really. It's nice to have a party that share a lot of left ideas and some forwarded thinking ones too but as you said if they only could take a quick glance at some of the batshit policies they have, they would be instantly have more credibility. For me the the hope would that they do well in this elections and that it could trigger Labour into taking some notices of their policies for the in the future.Or a least thinking that the idea of moving more to the left is a viable option.
As for the debates I can only seeing it being a giant mess with some many people involved(A glorified Question Time). I agree that I can see Bennett as she doesn't seem that best under pressure and like in the interview the Green Poilcy starts to crumble pretty quickly once the batshit ideas get questioned.
It's a really poor interview, and she'd get creamed in a debate like that, but that's probably more reason for her to be in them. That is sort of what they're for.
Yeah that's the problem and I don't know how the broadcasters will solve it without pissing some people off. If all seven are on together, it will be unwieldy and superficial with the need to spread airtime between the candidates living little opportunity for any in-depth debate on any one topic.
If you split it into two programmes with one having Con/Lab/Lib/SNP and the other Greens/PC and whoever, it will be crap. You need CON/LAB going head to head but the little groups will feel marginalised. Seems a no win situation on the face of it.
I've lost a lot of respect for the greens recently. As a professional party, not what they stand for. Never seen them this bad
Andrew Neil is good. Tough interview. Ouch, their policies being systematically decimated.
On a side note, she is disingenuous linking corporate tax avoidance directly to the 13% fall in corporation tax take under the current government. Yes, corporate tax avoidance is a (largely legal) disgrace, but she is completely overlooking the collapse in bank profits which has resulted in most of the fall.
On a side note, she is disingenuous linking corporate tax avoidance directly to the 13% fall in corporation tax take under the current government. Yes, corporate tax avoidance is a (largely legal) disgrace, but she is completely overlooking the collapse in bank profits which has resulted in most of the fall.
They tried this on Radio 2, just to show how fecking confusing it could potentially be and by the time the interview got to 5th candidate it was complete mayhem.You had no idea what the previous candidates had said on the subject and the interviewer had no time to digest the answers given or any time to question them(There would be no time for a audience Q&A at all) It would be at best sound bites and not a lot else.
And more importantly for the tv company's I can't see it being anyway watch able let lone something that will bring in high viewing figures.