SNP 'on course to win every seat in Scotland'
Though
@Cheesy ha explained how the SNP have been on upward curve for some time, this result is still shocking. Supposedly we are in the middle of Sturgeon Mania yet she's been as heavy on sound bites as the rest of them,
so what does this say for Labour's campaigning? Should they have employed Gordon Brown more often perhaps?
Not one solitary MP speaking for the strength of the union, that would be a sad thing indeed. I wonder if it is healthy for Scottish politics: assuming that the current trend is maintained into next year's Holyrood elections, not even a sizeable SNP rebellion could muster the numbers to block a motion from the leadership.
Cameron needs a big performance is tomorrow night's QT if he hopes to tip the balance is some English marginals.
Labour's campaigning up here has been terrible, but the problem is that they persistently refuse to recognise the problems. They seem to think that, "Vote SNP get Tory" is going to suddenly begin to become popular when it's just not working. Figures like Kezia Dugdale constantly use interviews to, instead of promoting Labour policies, slate the SNP. Jim Murphy has now resorted to standing in street corners in Glasgow, shouting at people who are already voting Labour to vote Labour.
The problem with Gordon Brown is that, while he's a big name, he's associated with New Labour. He's associated with Blair; with Iraq, more right-wing politics and things like that. He's a positive figure for
Labour voters, but he's not the type who are going to convert people that don't like Labour, and want a more positive vision. Like Jim Murphy, whose spell as Scottish Labour leader has been a bit shite, he's associated with Blair. And people don't like Blair.
And while it arguably makes sense for Labour to
not do a deal with the SNP, Labour and the Tories writing off the SNP as dangerous comes across as a bit patronising to Scottish voters. Last September, we were told that we had a vitally important role to play in the union if we stayed. Now we're being told that we only have an important role in the union if we vote for the parties that Labour and the Tories want us to. Yeah, I can see why they don't want to work with a nationalist party who support independence, but it still comes across as a bit hypocritical in a sense.
But the SNP won't win all 59. I'd be shocked if Carmichael loses his seat for example, while some of Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander etc will manage to cling onto their seats, even if only just.
Holyrood will be different though. With AMS, the SNP will walk the constituency vote and probably obtain a majority, but the regional lists will have Labour and the Tories finishing somewhere between 15-35 seats each in all probability, with the Greens maybe getting about 10-15 if SNP voters go for the Greens in the lists, and maybe the same for the Scottish Socialists. Lib Dems will get a token few as well, but will struggle.