The Telegraph can't be taken seriously. I'm off to read about the inherent sexism of potato waffles in the Guardian.
UK General Election 2015 | Conservatives win with an overall majority
- Thread starter langster
- Start date
Last week it was the underlying racism behind spaghetti hoops; there sure are some weird things going on at that paper.
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The poll was filtered to only include those who said they were certain to vote. Labour voters tend to be a bit flakey on the matter.
Jesus, the Telegraph is worse than The Sun
Wait for the Express and Survation to give 25% to UKIP...
Wait for the Express and Survation to give 25% to UKIP...
These may well be an anomalous batch of results, i have not seen so positive a poll for the Conservatives in nearly a fortnight. Still, i'd have supposed that the Tories have the most to concered about when it comes to the confirmed voter, what with UKIP and a stuttering campaign.
Jesus, the Telegraph is worse than The Sun
Wait for the Express and Survation to give 25% to UKIP...
It's the Evening Standard's poll.
I think Murdoch just really hates Miliband.
Of course he does Ed is a big threat to his empire.
Can't wait for Dimbleby's tie tonight.
Avada Kedavra
The Tories could very much still win this, and they seem at the very least the likeliest to be the largest party so any post-Election coming together with the SNP for Labour is going to be seized upon by the usual suspects as a power grab. Not particularly looking forward to the fallout either way, if I'm honest.
Nice to see Cameron turn up.
The political allegiance of questioners should be made public IMO. I don't for a second believe that the third contributor was an undecided voter.
David Cameron - 'You can't start your life on benefits'
Shocking attack on the Royal baby there.
Shocking attack on the Royal baby there.
Miliband getting a bit of a roasting on his last governments spending.
Sturgeon just said on BBC Scotland that if the SNP have any influence in Westminster they'll be doing all they can to rid things like child poverty not in Scotland but across the UK as a whole. Shame the vast majority of public can't see comments like that. Instead they saw Clegg talking a lot of shite about Salmond walking into #10 and bullying Miliband.
Did Sturgeon explain how she might go about achieving that, or was it just your commonplace politician's sound bite?
Prefer her sound bites to the evil snob's sound bites that's for sure.
Aiming to cut poverty isn't a sound bite Nick. We're not a poor country, it's bewildering that a claim like that's seen as unrealistic.
It's been an aspiration for years though, very similar statements have been made by others (that is the easy part) but who has ever come halfway close to fulfilling such? If Sturgeon has no practical means by which it can be attained, no unobjectionable plan, the words are as empty as all those spoken by the rest. It sounds nice enough initially of course.
There you go, you lot voting for the chinless wonders from Eton again.
Right then, one week to go, let's have some seat predictions
Tories - 283 (+/-10)
Labour - 260 (+/-10)
SNP - 56
Lib Dem - 26
UKIP - 3
Green - 1
Others - 22
Whatever government results from that is going to be horribly unstable.
Tories - 283 (+/-10)
Labour - 260 (+/-10)
SNP - 56
Lib Dem - 26
UKIP - 3
Green - 1
Others - 22
Whatever government results from that is going to be horribly unstable.
Sounds about right. Think UKIP will miss out on the third though. I could see the next government being a Lab-Lib minority working with both the SNP and sections of others parties on a vote by vote basis. None of the critical bills will fail to pass and the government will struggle it's way to complete the full parliamentary term. By which point the economy will be doing well (with, probably, minimal effect due to policy) and Labour will take the credit to win a majority because people won't want to rock the boat.
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Conservatives - 280
Labour - 265
SNP - 52
Lib Dems - 27
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
Others - Maths
And then what Silva said.
Labour - 265
SNP - 52
Lib Dems - 27
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
Others - Maths
And then what Silva said.
I've lost track a bit now. Based on promises, guarantees, and red lines, have I got the following right?
- Tories won't enter into a coalition without an EU Ref.
- Lib Dems won't enter into a coalition with an EU Ref.
- Labour won't enter into a coalition.
... We're guaranteed a minority government?
- Tories won't enter into a coalition without an EU Ref.
- Lib Dems won't enter into a coalition with an EU Ref.
- Labour won't enter into a coalition.
... We're guaranteed a minority government?
Actually, I've got the LD red-line confused.
Could easily work with either party from the look of that.
Could easily work with either party from the look of that.
I'm not so sure about that. We're going to have the unwinding of QE and the (slow) normalisation of interest rates at some point. It's going to create a bloodbath in the bond markets with massive potential wealth destruction. Either the next term or the one after is going to have to face this eventually.
Conservatives - 275
Labour - 266
SNP - 54
Lib Dems - 25
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
I would imagine Labour tactic will be to avoid doing a deal, but repeatedly tell the SNP "you can vote with us, or you can vote with the Tories". As the self-proclaimed anti-Tories, the Scots will be stuck.
Labour - 266
SNP - 54
Lib Dems - 25
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
I would imagine Labour tactic will be to avoid doing a deal, but repeatedly tell the SNP "you can vote with us, or you can vote with the Tories". As the self-proclaimed anti-Tories, the Scots will be stuck.
Is there any way the maths can come out as such that Labour + Lib Dems hold an effective majority if the SNP agree to abstain?
They're close to that level of support, yeah. Would need a few more seats than the current projections though.
Edit - 650 seats in Paliament, or 645 minus the Sinn Fein.
Using Nate Silver's latest projections, the SNP will win 49 seats, meaning 596 seats are up for grabs in a vote, so a majority of 299 needed. Lab+LD is currently projected at 295.
In the aftermath of QT Fivelive were discussing the variables of coalition government, and according to their source current Labour intentions are to have the country back at the polls as early as 2016. They believe that without too much difficulty a twelve month political programme is workable, the intention being to use it as evidence for majority support.
Not that it'll make much of a difference and isn't much of a surprise but the Guardian backs Labour.
Do things tend to 'slowly normalise' though? Or overshoot? After such all-time lows. Slow to begin with, what happens after that is anyone's guess, but I'm not looking forward to it.
What are the chances of Lib Dems siding with Labour over the Tories? Is it a realistic possibility? I've been assuming they'll probably side with the other lot again.
Given growth levels are sluggish and inflation is nigh on non-existent, not sure many people can see interest rates rising rapidly. Feck knows what happens if there is an inflationary shock, but not sure where that is coming from since oil prices have cratered. It's the things you don't see coming that are generally the worst ones, I guess.
I think they'll probably go with whichever has the most votes.
I feel like that would be very risky for them. Miliband seems to be backing on the Scots suddenly returning to Labour if they don't work with the SNP. I really think he's underestimating the loss of support up here. He's more likely to get a majority than Cameron, but I feel like both parties will really struggle to get any sort of majority at all.
If it's <15 I think the pressure from the party will be to go Labour, especially considering the EU Ref. Clegg said yesterday it would be their responsibility to first hold discussions with the party who hold the most seats, but made it clear that that doesn't necessarily guarantee that those talks will prove successful.
Yeah, with both parties ruling out working with the SNP, it's probably going to end up being an utter clusterfeck though. The chances of either party doing well enough to make a majority with the Lib Dems seems slim.