Ubik
Nothing happens until something moves!
- Joined
- Jul 8, 2010
- Messages
- 19,408
You kidding meAh balls. Con hold North Warwickshire. Last time around there were 60 votes between them and Labour.
Balls apparently in deep shit too.
You kidding meAh balls. Con hold North Warwickshire. Last time around there were 60 votes between them and Labour.
A 1999 type comeback on the cards. Labour could still win this in Millie time.
You vote for the outcome you prefer unless you're a complete idealist.
Its not the SNP voters faults that's not what I'm trying to get at but the momentum of Scottish nationalism looks like it has contributed to another tory government.
Because the whole election ran with the SNP are going to wipe Labour out in Scotland narrative. Did Scotland really think that wouldn't play in England?
A 1999 type comeback on the cards. Labour could still win this in Millie time.
I'm at work now.Who still up has work in the morning?
Not going to be a fun day...
Thought this was a good rant.(cookdandbombd forum)Tories mauling the Lib Dem seats. Who'd have thought?
''To anyone surprised why Lib Dem votes are going to Tories:
People forget that historically, both Liberals and Tories are two different branches of the same class. The class of the rich and privileged elite. "Liberal" in their case means market liberalism. There's nothing left wing about them in the broader sense and there never has been.
Sure they're a bit progressive on stuff like mental health and civil liberties, but that means squat so long as they continue to represent the capitalist class and private property.
Basically, Lib Dems are just Tories but more socially tolerant. As they always have been.
You could argue the same for New Labour but at least Labour were the first party in this country to come from the trade unions and working class and the labour movement in general. In other words they represented the interests of the people, not the rich few.That's left wing. Not bloody Lib Dems.''
After this result, the feeling is mutual mate.I wonder how the feeling is going to be in Scotland. Considering the likes of myself who were completely against independence now thinking that England politician's can get fecked Seriously feels like a massive defeat for our voice in politics
...cleared, Balls with the shot! HARMAN!
Is she channelling Moyes?
The Scottish people view themselves as a country in a way that the bible belt or the northeast of england don't.
My constituency has annihilated Labour.
Ed later this morning: "Labour aspires to be like the Conservative Party, and i'm going to try very hard to make that happen."
"I want to see us reaching the by-line as much as possible, be it in the Telegraph or the Guardian."
"We hope to making some fresh additions to the front bench in the summer, as well as retaining the services of Ed Balls with a new five-year-deal."
Which is yours mate?
I'm hearing rumours it's going to be a re-vote. All the ballots got nicked.Labour is a safe seat in Liverpool, right?
But they are not a country (in the proper sense of the word). They are a region of Britain like Bavaria is a region of Germany, or Andalusia a region of Spain.
If every region/nation-within-a-nation behaved like Scotland, the stable structure of the nation state would break down and we might as well go back to living as tribal states. It's fecking outrageous the more I think about it. If Scotland goes independent, what happens if Shetland decides that it is a distinct region and wants independence from Scotland? Where does it end?
The nation state is the most stable unit of world politics, and it should not be fecked around with lightly. Just to put it into some historical context, there has never been a region that has broken away from a nation state/country in modern history that has not done so in the context of war, genocide or severed oppression.
323 seats needed to effectively hold a confidence vote. Based on the most recent projections,
Five Thirty Eight
Conservative - 279
Labour - 270
SNP - 48
Lib Dems - 27
UKIP - 2
Likely Outcome: Labour Minority (Lab+SNP = 318).
Election Forecast
Conservative - 280
Labour - 270
SNP - 47
Lib Dems - 27
UKIP - 2
Likely Outcome: Labour Minority (Lab+SNP = 317).
Seat Calculator - New Statesman
Conservative - 276
Labour - 267
SNP - 56
Lib Dems - 26
UKIP - 2
Likely Outcome: Labour Minority (Lab+SNP = 323).
Electoral Calculus
Conservative - 280
Labour - 275
SNP - 55
Lib Dems - 17
UKIP - 1
Likely Outcome: Labour Minority (Lab+SNP = 330).
Elections Etc
Conservative - 291
Labour - 258
SNP - 53
Lib Dems - 25
UKIP - 0
Likely Outcome: Conservative Minority (Con+LD = 316).
The Guardian
Conservative - 276
Labour - 267
SNP - 55
Lib Dems - 27
UKIP - 3
Likely Outcome: Labour Minority (Lab+SNP = 322).
UK Elect
Conservative - 272
Labour - 272
SNP - 55
Lib Dems - 25
UKIP - 3
Likely Outcome: Labour Minority (Lab+SNP = 327).
Telgraph/ Betfair
Labour Minority - 35.1%
Con/ Lib Dem Coalition - 18.2%
Conservative Minority - 16.4%
Any other Government/ Coalition - 9.8%
Conservative Majority - 9.4%
Labour/ Lib Dem Coalition - 8.5%
Con/ UKIP Coalition - 1.6%
Labour Majority - 1%
Main difference seems to be that the websites now completely buy the reality of the SNP 'wave'. Nothing else has really changed, a late upswing in the polls to the Tories was already factored into most of them, hence why that poll movement hasn't really changed their projections. As it did a month ago, it's hard to see the numbers working out in favour of the Tories, barring a huge late surge in support through England - and considering a 'slight' surge is expected, it would have to be something incredibly significant. Ed Miliband will be our next PM.
The SNP will tonight start winning seats in England at this rate.
Inverclyde. Labour safe seat for ages, but SNP got 24,000 to Labour's 13,000.
I'm hearing rumours it's going to be a re-vote. All the ballots got nicked.
That is a bit of a tanking right enough.
Still waiting on mine I think (Glasgow North West). Pretty sure what the outcome will be mind you.
The ones I'd posted yesterday were broadly the same! I will still nervous that Tories might get 290. Happy days...One week ago:
Labour is a safe seat in Liverpool, right?
The SNP will tonight start winning seats in England at this rate.