Saw some clips of the Kennedy and M Obama speeches last night. Obamas was decent, the party seems to be trying to soften her image a bit. Plus I thought the bit with the kids was a bit cheesy. And isn't Kennedy ready to be put in a home yet? I'm pretty surprised they wheeled that guy out. Maybe the repubs can wheel out Regan......would be a short speech though.
U.S. Presidential Race: Official Thread
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran are here to talk about a frustrating 2 points dropped at Crystal Palace. They then discuss the regeneration of Old Trafford. Finally, Nik is joined by special guest Michael Statham from the Football Oranje podcast - who gives us a more in depth look at our EL opposition FC Twente, and then runs through the (many) Dutch connections currently at United.
McCain will win this by 6 points.
I don't. I just suggest that Europeans remember such before lecturing the rest of the world on peace, justice, morality, international diplomacy, and a primary reason several other continents are in rather bad shape.
InTrade says Obama-Biden still. But McCain hasn't named his running mate yet.
The prediction markets are pretty good - called most of the congressional races in 2006.
I just cannot see Obama holding on though, especially to McCain's attacks. Plus he may have the Dukakis-Bentsen problem, namely that the ticket looks like it is the wrong way round.
Maybe, but it's a brave man that calls against InTrade, or the other prediction markets. The reason why I can't see it is because most of McCain's arguments against Obama are easily countered when it comes to convincing independents. Obama is foreign policy light, well, there's now Biden. Obama is a flip-flopper, not really, he adapts his policies as the facts change. Obama broke his promises, no, if you listen carefully, he doesn't actually promise anything.
I don't actually think that the ticket looks the wrong way round. If anything, to young voters in America the ticket looks right, since it repudiates somewhat the old white man stereotype.
I guess I just have less faith than you do! I suspect this election will be a lot less of a cakewalk for the Democrats as once thought, and I have a sneaking suspicion (it's based on no evidence) that McCain will win just as Bush did in 04.
How long have the prediction markets been covering/predicting elections? Do you have figures on how they fair, and also could you let me knwo how they work?
will McCain get the religious right out? Bush made a big play for them in 2004 (opening his campaign at BJU etc) and they were a major reason he won. Without them McCain is struggling I think.
I think there's been some sort of market since 1996, but the liquid ones really started in the 2002 mid-terms.
Check out Intrade. Intrade is a spread betting market, so if you're familiar with these feel free to ignore the next 2 paras.
Any individual contract gives a probability of a certain event happening. Of course this means that the opposite could happen, but Intrade got most (more than half, IIRC) of the 2006 mid-terms right (i.e. if a candidate had more than 50% chance of winning on InTrade, he usually won). Obama's chance of winning the election is 61%, which is pretty high.
On InTrade, you basically buy a contract at whatever price and earn or lose the difference. Say I buy 1 contract on Obama to win the election at 61% ($6.10). The probability goes up to 63%. I've made 2%, which on InTrade would be $0.20.
There's also the Iowa Electronic Markets, which also has binary and vote share contracts (Obama to win, 58%). The paper cited in this article has more if you can find it. I think you can also spread bet on the elections at UK sites like IG Index, Cantor Index and City Index.
I don't actually think McCain being elected would be a disaster. In fact he's better than Obama in some ways - free trade for instance.
Thank you for the explanations. I am no expert in financial matters so I tend to steer clear of them usually!
I agree with that. I think that McCain, if he tackles some of US protectionism (subsidies and tariffs included, especially on farmers) could actually be better for the world than Obama, and in fact do more for the poor worldwide. I hesitate to say that this will happen however, especially with a resurgent China that could lead to calls for more protectionism.
I think both sides may struggle with their base. McCain with the religious right, Obama with the blue-collar Clinton voters. It all comes down to who will appeal to independents in the swing states. At the moment it is Obama, although I feel that his grip is beginning to loosen, and it could be his election to lose (which I think he may do - although I hope I'm wrong).
If you look at Obama's contract on InTrade, the probability of him winning the presidential election rocketed to 40% plus shortly after the Iowa caucus, putting him ahead of Hilary. Then it went to more than 50% in February, and stayed near there even after Hilary won Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas in March. The market called it right very quickly.
I do think that McCain is personally a braver man than Obama, who could actually stand up and say no to his own party. I certainly don't see that Obama has a record of fighting for things he believes in. However, Obama does have a record of pragmatism, which is probably more valuable to the US right now than principle.
Hard to say who could be better, but either would be an improvement on George Bush, who is quite possibly the worst president the US has had in the last century. Certainly the worst 2 term president ever.
I do think that McCain is personally a braver man than Obama, who could actually stand up and say no to his own party. I certainly don't see that Obama has a record of fighting for things he believes in. However, Obama does have a record of pragmatism, which is probably more valuable to the US right now than principle.
Hard to say who could be better, but either would be an improvement on George Bush, who is quite possibly the worst president the US has had in the last century. Certainly the worst 2 term president ever.
It's done...
Obama is the Democratic nominee for President of the United States of America.
Hillary spared her state of having to cast votes against her. She conceded when the roll-call got to New York.
McCain doesn't have a rat's chance in hell.
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Spinoza,
What do you mean by, McCain being braver? You're talking about Mr. Keating 5. One of the 5 men that raped our people and economy in the 1980's. There are few people that could be considered more corrupt than Bush or Hillary Clinton, yet it would be fair to say that McCain is amongst the most corrupt in the past 40 years.
Obama is the Democratic nominee for President of the United States of America.
Hillary spared her state of having to cast votes against her. She conceded when the roll-call got to New York.
McCain doesn't have a rat's chance in hell.
________________________________________
Spinoza,
What do you mean by, McCain being braver? You're talking about Mr. Keating 5. One of the 5 men that raped our people and economy in the 1980's. There are few people that could be considered more corrupt than Bush or Hillary Clinton, yet it would be fair to say that McCain is amongst the most corrupt in the past 40 years.
I lot of fanatics will vote for McCain, so he'll be there and abouts
''I did not have sexual relations with that woman'' is on stage soon.
We'll see about that!
Yes, we will see...
Here's something for you to sleep on;
If Obama had been able to take down the Clintons, McCain is going to be a cake-walk.
Anyone with a clear head and a spec of common sense, wouldn't laugh at that.
*Finally, the Neo-Conartists will be told to sit down and shut the feck up!
**ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh blisssssssssssssssss
The reception Bill got was enough to make any sane person puke.
Yes, we will see...
Here's something for you to sleep on;
If Obama had been able to take down the Clintons, McCain is going to be a cake-walk.
Anyone with a clear head and a spec of common sense, wouldn't laugh at that.
*Finally, the Neo-Conartists will be told to sit down and shut the feck up!
**ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh blisssssssssssssssss
The dems would be very foolish to think that. It's neck and neck in most polls.
Also known as "that depend on what the definition of is is"
What a speech from the Great Man himself
Yes, we will see...
Here's something for you to sleep on;
If Obama had been able to take down the Clintons, McCain is going to be a cake-walk.
Anyone with a clear head and a spec of common sense, wouldn't laugh at that.
*Finally, the Neo-Conartists will be told to sit down and shut the feck up!
**ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh blisssssssssssssssss
There is something drastically wrong with that statement but I can't quite put my finger on it.....
I missed most of it. Was it a good endorsement or did he talk mostly about the Clintons?
Whatever floats your boat I guess.
The ''architect'', aka Karl Rove, thought it was a reasonable endorsement of Obama.
He spoke a bit about Hillary but not too much. Apparently Bill didn't focus on all the things he was supposed to or more accurately didn't focus on them enough.
The main point was that Obama is ready to be Commander in Chief. But he covered all the bases, as usual, he's a political genius
Hmm, well we'll see how the next few weeks go. I know they wouldn't sabatoge the Obama campaign but they can't want him to win. Something will happen over the next few weeks surely.
I did see Kucinich, all I can say is
.Why wouldn't it float my boat. Listening to him again after Bush/McCain is a breath of fresh air.
Hmm, well we'll see how the next few weeks go. I know they wouldn't sabatoge the Obama campaign but they can't want him to win. Something will happen over the next few weeks surely.
I did see Kucinich, all I can say is
Agreed, a total whack job.
The Clintons will undoubtedly use devious tactics to undermine Obama. They are the Cintons after all.
You can pin most of the blame for 9/11 at the Clinton administration's doorstep.
No doubt he was too busy touching up Monica in the White House china room to take any notice.
He's a national embarrassment.
He can't be the national embarrassment when 99% of people outside of US respect him more than any other President. The only embarrassments is Bush. Try going outside the borders next time you go on vacations.
As for pinning the blame on him, he left office 9 month prior didn't he. Who was the one ignoring intelligence reports on Osama? You Republicans are really a world-class joke.
99% of people outside of America are total whack jobs, so that doesn't work. He's a national embarrassment to Americans.
I'm currently living in Manchester, England, so again good try.
The vast majority of intelligence reports on Osama were compiled during the Clinton years. FACT. He did feck all about them. ALSO FACT. He was too busy banging Monica to do his job properly. PROBABLY TRUE.
99%? Really? I know you're exagerating but come on. Going outside the borders is great for vacations, however it sucks for electing a president. While I think there is some importance in having good standing in the rest of the world it's not one of the top priorities IMO. And Bill certainly shoulders some of the responsibility for Osama and Sept 11th. I'm not blaming him solely but these things were clearly in the works for years.
Why do you care who he sleeps with? Mind your own business me says.
How can he be national embarrassment to Americans, if outside people respect him?
Bush didn't do anything about warnings of imminent attack. That's the only fact I need my looney friend.
wow, what a nutjob
Intelligence Shrugged
My point was that there is no way he's national embarrassments. No one I have ever met cares about who was blowing him, except Americans
Just watching some of Bidens speech and it sounds like he wants to send troops all over the place. 2 more battalions in Afghanistan, support Georgia against Russia. Doesn't this go against BHO's bring home the troops promise? Interesting.
Terrible speech by Biden btw. Not worried about him whatsoever.
Not many Americans could give a shit, just the Hollywoodesque press and Congress