I haven’t seen anything yet, it’s still a bit soon to tell I think, and there’s the usual antics to consider too:
Turkey
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I haven’t seen anything yet, it’s still a bit soon to tell I think, and there’s the usual antics to consider too:
Early results massively favoring Erdogan. Any thought if it is just the Asian parts sending their results earlier or if right wing candidates (as usual) over performing the polls.
Independent candidate Ogan is getting 5,5%.. that‘s a big surprise. It makes it a bit harder for both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu (I feel he is the favorite now) to win it in the first round. Very likely runoff if it stays this way….
The results look promising for Kılıçdaroğlu so far. If you're getting Anadolu Agency numbers, please understand you're essentially being told numbers by the ruling government, and then ask yourself how trustworthy those are.
And to pick up on what @2cents has already covered, here's how they do it. It's all about perception management. This is how the the 2019 Ankara election looked at the beginning:
That guy went on to lose with 47.1% of the vote. The fact that they couldn't start him off with his usual high number in this election is quite telling. Also, CHP areas will come in later.
And to pick up on what @2cents has already covered, here's how they do it. It's all about perception management. This is how the the 2019 Ankara election looked at the beginning:
That guy went on to lose with 47.1% of the vote. The fact that they couldn't start him off with his usual high number in this election is quite telling. Also, CHP areas will come in later.
It could also be just a tactic by Erdo and co to not accept the results. Hey, we were winning until terrorists stole our elections.
Any time somebody says "do not be depressed by this" inevitably leads to a period of depression.
So I guess we will have a better of the tendencies in, let's say, 20 minutes or so.
”We are ahead.”
Yeah there’s obviously a danger there. Vast majority of the Turkish sources I follow are opposed to Erdogan, definitely a bit of an echo-chamber. And the whole process is anyway so skewed in his favor.
Cheers
Just beware that is giving the government’s Anadolu Agency results. The Anka news agency is said to be pro-CHP, but I can’t find an English-language service for them:
For those who still don't know - "Anadolu Agency" (AA), which always has him ahead, doesn't gets its numbers directly from the YSK (Supreme Election Council). If you're posting those numbers, you're posting the most brazen propaganda.
2nd round would favor Erdogans opponent, right?
The third guy is a nationalist, isn't he?
I think yes, especially if he manages to make it a referendum for/against Erdogan.
It seems so. Either way they’ll have to fight over his voters as well as those who didn’t turn up… A runoff is always a new campaign and a new battle.. 15 days, anything can happen.
Anadolu Agency reporting Erdogan has slipped under 50%, so at the very least Turkey is heading for a run-off in a couple of weeks. But CHP keep projecting Kılıçdaroğlu to go over.
Time for Erdogan to feck off.
The opposition’s major complaint in regards to procedure tonight seems to be that AKP election officials are deliberately delaying the release of results in areas they’re expecting to lose by demanding multiple recounts. Seen many such complaints:
Both counts starting to give the same results at the end… Erdogan ahead. And a runoff.
Kilicdaroglu ahead in both Ankara & Istanbul.
Kilicdaroglu ahead in both Ankara & Istanbul.
If Erdogan is ahead by that much, does Kilicdaroglu actually stand a chance in a runoff? Ogan has primarily stolen votes from Erdogan, right?
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Seems that there will be a second round, but Erdogan has a massive advantage, while all the polls were putting the opposition ahead of him. Erdogan will likely end with above 49% here, so I expect him to win quite easily the second round (probably 52-48 or so).
Guess Turkey just can't drop Erdogan, for some reason....
He is looking rather frail as of late though, would be a shame if his health got worse in the coming years.
He is looking rather frail as of late though, would be a shame if his health got worse in the coming years.
I think it is actually more complicated than that. Nationalists (those who voted for Ogan) are angry at Erdogan for letting so many Syrians acquire Turkish citizenship…Kilicdaroglu might be more appealing to those voters.
This is all tactics. None of the data you are seeing is actually coming from YSK right now. Instead, you're just seeing tweets with dodgy AA bollocks.
The entire point is to create the idea that we have a result. If we don't have the votes, how can you reach a conclusion? First they'd won with "massive" leads, then a second round was nailed on, and now they're preventing the real numbers coming out any further.
It's not just Syrians. It's the open border policy for Pakistanis and Afghans, the subsequent peadophilia on TikTok, sexual assaults against women, and a host of other crap that Turkish people weren't prepared for.
The entire point is to create the idea that we have a result. If we don't have the votes, how can you reach a conclusion? First they'd won with "massive" leads, then a second round was nailed on, and now they're preventing the real numbers coming out any further.
It's not just Syrians. It's the open border policy for Pakistanis and Afghans, the subsequent peadophilia on TikTok, sexual assaults against women, and a host of other crap that Turkish people weren't prepared for.
Now, what was Erdogans polling average, 44-45%? Looks like he will be getting around 49%.
Now, Turkey isn't exactly the greatest example of democracy in the world, but it always seems like there is the "ashamed" right-winger-factor to consider, globally, people just don't want to admit what they really believe, left/center seem much more honest on that front.
Hopefully he loses in the 2nd round, but i doubt it, too many people who won't admit they authoritarians, deep down.
Now, Turkey isn't exactly the greatest example of democracy in the world, but it always seems like there is the "ashamed" right-winger-factor to consider, globally, people just don't want to admit what they really believe, left/center seem much more honest on that front.
Hopefully he loses in the 2nd round, but i doubt it, too many people who won't admit they authoritarians, deep down.
It's not the official YSK data. They're majorly holding back CHP votes and waiting for people to just throw up their arms and give up.
Why do all these old cnuts insist on "serving the nation" well past their sell-by date? Through illness and senility? Just feck off with the millions you've accumulated and give somebody else a go.
Erdogan is "only" 69 to be fair. Can't put an edge to being a cnut though.
When you are a corrupt autocrat, the moment you step out the power you are as good as dead or in jail. So the have to go on and on and on
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalist_Movement_Party
Not a great sign when a political party has a "paramilitary wing" section on Wikipedia. And "neo-fascism".
Not a great sign when a political party has a "paramilitary wing" section on Wikipedia. And "neo-fascism".
Always wanted the Caf to have a paramilitary wing.
Very bad night for the opposition
And for the Kurdish minority…
I'm tired of arseholes coming out on top.
At this stage, polls should add a +5 to right-wing candidates. Or not remove it to them in the first place.
Yup, too many ashamed right-wingers in this world, its difficult to get accurate polling when a portion of those you ask just lie.