Turkey

Raoul said:
Orban is a bit authoritarian but (as a former resident of Hungary) I wouldn't say he is out of control like Erdogan is. I think its perfectly reasonable for a Muslim country to join the EU as long as it meets the Copenhagen standards.
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Nah, he is not there yet, but he is going toward Erdogan's road. In fact, his thing with Soros looks quite similar to Erdogan's fight with Gulen (pre coap d'etat).

Small countries like Albania, Bosna and Kosovo yes, but there is no way EU is actually allowing 80m muslims to join them. Especially considering that unlike in Kosovo/Albania, in Turkey (a lot of) people are more religious.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
How likely are the Turks to be kicked out of NATO? Or do The West want to have 'keep your enemies closer' approach? As it would be almost certain Turkey would strengthen ties with Russia - which would really be something! Considering the history between the two.
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I don't think they would get kicked out because it would push them closer to Russia. Erdogan knows this and is skillfully manipulating both sides to allow himself greater latitude to do as he pleases domestically. He knows the the US has a base in Turkey and wont rock the boat too much if Erdogan goes more authoritarian.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
How likely are the Turks to be kicked out of NATO? Or do The West want to have 'keep your enemies closer' approach? As it would be almost certain Turkey would strengthen ties with Russia - which would really be something! Considering the history between the two.
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Considering that they have the second biggest army in NATO, is the only NATO member from where you can effectively disclose army/nukes near Middle East (and Russia), and NATO not having a clause which can expel countries, and as you said, the possible chance of Turkey and Russia getting closer (Turkey has also close relations to Saudi Arabia which are rich as feck), I would say very close to 0.

Turkey invaded Cyprus and no one mentioned the possibility of expelling them from NATO. Being dictatorial won't expel them too.
 
I'm sure the rest of NATO will do whatever they can to keep Turkey sweet while quietly encouraging internal reforms and secular opposition to Erdogan. Young Turks are far more westernized than any other Muslim nation so there's hope.
 
Revan said:
Nah, he is not there yet, but he is going toward Erdogan's road. In fact, his thing with Soros looks quite similar to Erdogan's fight with Gulen (pre coap d'etat).

Small countries like Albania, Bosna and Kosovo yes, but there is no way EU is actually allowing 80m muslims to join them. Especially considering that unlike in Kosovo/Albania, in Turkey (a lot of) people are more religious.
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Except that Orban is to a degree constrained by Brussels in that they can mess with him financially if he strays too far, which will cause him problems back home. Ultimately, there is a legal framework (the Lisbon Agreement) that constrains him from going too far and still remain in the EU.
 
Raoul said:
I don't think they would get kicked out because it would push them closer to Russia. Erdogan knows this and is skillfully manipulating both sides to allow himself greater latitude to do as he pleases domestically. He knows the the US has a base in Turkey and wont rock the boat too much if Erdogan goes more authoritarian.
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Yeah, you're right! I think if it were to happen they would have been booted out already. And I agree Erdogan is playing both sides well.
 
Raoul said:
Except that Orban is to a degree constrained by Brussels in that they can mess with him financially if he strays too far, which will cause him problems back home. Ultimately, there is a legal framework (the Lisbon Agreement) that constrains him from going too far and still remain in the EU.
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Nah, they couldn't make him accept 1300 refuges. 1300, which for a country as large as Hungary is literally nothing. He is also gravitating toward Putin, and so probably, can actually decide to leave EU in the future, and then go full Putin/Erdogan.
2cents said:
Not anymore!

Saudi prince says Turkey part of ‘triangle of evil’

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/tribune.com.pk/story/1653732/3-saudi-prince-says-turkey-part-triangle-evil/?amp=1
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Missed this. Guess it is because of Turkey's support of Qatar, and them not wanting Iran to be destroyed.

A bit hilarious from Saudi Arabia to talk about 'triangle of evil' and to mention as part of the triangle, religious extremist groups.
 
Revan said:
Considering that they have the second biggest army in NATO, is the only NATO member from where you can effectively disclose army/nukes near Middle East (and Russia), and NATO not having a clause which can expel countries, and as you said, the possible chance of Turkey and Russia getting closer (Turkey has also close relations to Saudi Arabia which are rich as feck), I would say very close to 0.

Turkey invaded Cyprus and no one mentioned the possibility of expelling them from NATO. Being dictatorial won't expel them too.
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Yeah good points!
 
Revan said:
Nah, they couldn't make him accept 1300 refuges. 1300, which for a country as large as Hungary is literally nothing. He is also gravitating toward Putin, and so probably, can actually decide to leave EU in the future, and then go full Putin/Erdogan.

Missed this. Guess it is because of Turkey's support of Qatar, and them not wanting Iran to be destroyed.

A bit hilarious from Saudi Arabia to talk about 'triangle of evil' and to mention as part of the triangle, religious extremist groups.
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I don't think that will happen as both Hungary and the EU are to a degree co-depedent and leaving the EU would put Hungary on unstable footing since Putin isn't exactly in a position to be providing economic aid. Orban will continue to play the Euro-sceptic authoritarian to advance his domestic agenda, but he will do it while remaining an EU member.
 
A Turkish ruler playing the greatest Western power of the day off against its Russian rival is something we've seen before:

Y3vB9fG.jpg
 
PedroMendez said:
He is doing it before the economic downturn hits the country.
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Why an economic downturn is going to hit Turkey? Are there genuine reasons about it, or are we talking about the same downturn which is supposed to hit China every year for the last 10 years?
 
Revan said:
Why an economic downturn is going to hit Turkey? Are there genuine reasons about it, or are we talking about the same downturn which is supposed to hit China every year for the last 10 years?
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-rally-as-snap-election-reinforces-stability
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/19/turkey-called-a-snap-election-and-its-all-about-the-economy.html


I wasn't hinting at any major crisis just a normal economic downturn (which is not a recession for a country like turkey, but slowing GDP growth).

In the longrun many countries have tried, what the current turkish government is doing and it failed 10/10 times. It can't succeed in the longrun.
The deterioration of the value of their currency and rising inflation rates reflect that trend (while running an increasing trade deficit; turkey has to import energy). At the same time Erdogan is unwilling to change course and uses authoritarian tactics (e.g. influencing central bank decisions and calling out "unpatriotic" companies/investors) instead of following sound economic ideas. He errodes the rules of law. These trends will only play out in the long run; Turkey's relatively solid financial situation is giving them room to manouver.
 
Don’t know much about erdogan. Always thought he was disliked for being religious but I recently met quite a lot of Turks who are strict practicing Muslims and they hate this guys guts. Don’t understand where he gets the support from.
 
Revan said:
Nah, he is not there yet, but he is going toward Erdogan's road. In fact, his thing with Soros looks quite similar to Erdogan's fight with Gulen (pre coap d'etat).

Small countries like Albania, Bosna and Kosovo yes, but there is no way EU is actually allowing 80m muslims to join them. Especially considering that unlike in Kosovo/Albania, in Turkey (a lot of) people are more religious.
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What would be the issue with that? Practicing Muslims that is. Not for or against it but was just wondering if EU had some laws regarding practice of religion for countries that want to join them.
 
shamans said:
Don’t know much about erdogan. Always thought he was disliked for being religious but I recently met quite a lot of Turks who are strict practicing Muslims and they hate this guys guts. Don’t understand where he gets the support from.
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It's a combination of people who depend on him, which is to stay they stand to lose the most if he's toppled, and blatant corruption. For those reasons, they're scared of the Iyi Party. Not only can Meral Akşener unite Turks from many different parties, she can also stand in the way of their corruption, or at least reduce it to prevent them outright stealing another election.

She has the potential to be Turkey's saviour in its time of need. For the first time in a long time, there is a glimmer of hope for the country.
 
2cents said:
Thread:

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Is there any slim chance that someone might beat Erdogan in the elections, or is more creating a unified opposition to cause as many problems to him as possible? Which most likely would make him just arrest them, overthrow the republic and declare himself Sultan.
 
Revan said:
Is there any slim chance that someone might beat Erdogan in the elections, or is more creating a unified opposition to cause as many problems to him as possible? Which most likely would make him just arrest them, overthrow the republic and declare himself Sultan.
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I'd go with the latter. He won't be giving up power no matter what happens.
 
Revan said:
Is there any slim chance that someone might beat Erdogan in the elections, or is more creating a unified opposition to cause as many problems to him as possible? Which most likely would make him just arrest them, overthrow the republic and declare himself Sultan.
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There is a slim chance, yes.

In 2014, Erdoğan scraped together his first-round victory over what was a weak cross-party candidate for both the MHP and CHP, and the HDP's Selahattin Demirtaş. In 2018, he's facing at least four other candidates that will split his vote and at least take it to the second round. They're also strong candidates that will rally the bases of each party like never before.

When it comes to the second round - and it will - that's where millions of Turks will be hyperventilating in anticipation. I believe they can beat him with their strategy, and I simply refuse to believe he has the necessary votes from the AKP supporters alone, so then we get to see him extra cards out of his sleeve. Whether or not the opposition accept the inevitable corruption in his desperate bid to consolidate his position is the important factor, and I don't believe we've seen anything like this before. As I said above, they're strong candidates, and they can not only rally their voters to turn out, they can also move them to refuse his blatant corruption. That's when it's time for Turkey to take a stand against this shit once and for all.

It's also worth remembering that it's not just about who opposes him. The economy is an absolute mess right now, and if they sense he's weak (and this is a guy who can't stand to look even slightly weak), enough of his people might even jump ship and assist in ousting him.
 
@Fener1907 what can you tell us about İnce and Akşener? Never heard of either of them until the last couple weeks.
 
Revan said:
Is there any slim chance that someone might beat Erdogan in the elections, or is more creating a unified opposition to cause as many problems to him as possible? Which most likely would make him just arrest them, overthrow the republic and declare himself Sultan.
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A very slim chance, and it heavily depends on which presidential candidate from the opposition coalition goes through to the second round of voting.

Muharrem Ince, the candidate from main opposition CHP, will most likely face Erdogan in case of a run-off but he won't stand a flipping chance; though some Kurds will vote for him as he has a decent track record (for a secular nationalist politician) on Kurdish affairs, never in a million years will Ince draw away conservative Anatolian voters from Erdogan and this is simply because he's a secularist. One candidate that has a chance, albeit slim, in a run-off against Erdogan is a nationalist politician by the name of Meral Aksener. I personally can see her drawing away conservative Anatolian voters from Erdogan but she won't get any Kurdish votes; Kurds won't quickly forget her tenure as interior minister back in the late nineties.

But it's all speculation now and, of course, there's the huge possibility that Erdogan will win it outright in the first round! :lol:
 
Fener1907 said:
There is a slim chance, yes.

In 2014, Erdoğan scraped together his first-round victory over what was a weak cross-party candidate for both the MHP and CHP, and the HDP's Selahattin Demirtaş. In 2018, he's facing at least four other candidates that will split his vote and at least take it to the second round. They're also strong candidates that will rally the bases of each party like never before.

When it comes to the second round - and it will - that's where millions of Turks will be hyperventilating in anticipation. I believe they can beat him with their strategy, and I simply refuse to believe he has the necessary votes from the AKP supporters alone, so then we get to see him extra cards out of his sleeve. Whether or not the opposition accept the inevitable corruption in his desperate bid to consolidate his position is the important factor, and I don't believe we've seen anything like this before. As I said above, they're strong candidates, and they can not only rally their voters to turn out, they can also move them to refuse his blatant corruption. That's when it's time for Turkey to take a stand against this shit once and for all.

It's also worth remembering that it's not just about who opposes him. The economy is an absolute mess right now, and if they sense he's weak (and this is a guy who can't stand to look even slightly weak), enough of his people might even jump ship and assist in ousting him.
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Does the HDP or any equivalent still exist?
 
Shame. I think that Erdogan did a lot of good things for Turkey, but his time should end soon. The more he stays in power, the worse it will become for the democracy and human rights in Turkey.
 
2cents said:
@Fener1907 what can you tell us about İnce and Akşener? Never heard of either of them until the last couple weeks.
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Muharrem İnce isn't your typical CHP politician. I can't tell you much about his political background (aside from him being a strongly supported alternative to Kılıçdaroğlu at the party's kurultay), but he is intelligent, has an eccentric charisma and speaks well. AKP tried to sully his reputation in the past by pointing to a video of him drinking on the beach during ramazan, but that mud slinging didn't work. In other words, unlike his fellow timid CHP politicians, he just shrugs it off and forges ahead, not playing into their hands with those stupid little "look what he did! games. He already made fun of Erdoğan today by saying the first thing he'd do is go to his university and get his certificate (everyone knows Erdoğan never actually graduated and is very self-conscious of it), and that might seem irrelevant to tell you, but it demonstrates his character i.e. somebody who will go on the attack.

As for Akşener, she's a former MHP politician who broke away with other prominent ones to splinter it and form the Iyi Party. As far as I know, she was fed up with Bahçeli (chief boot licker of Erdoğan) who rules over the party and won't loosen his iron grip. Same as above in terms of personality. She has the cunning to anticipate every step Erdoğan and even beat him to the punch. For example, the AKP introduced some bullshit rules about needing 20 members of parliament in your party to run as a candidate, so she got the CHP and MHP candidates to resign and join the Iyi Party to give her the required number. Also important, she's a centre right candidate who can steal some of his AKP votes.

The Saadet Partisi is also fielding a strong candidate who I know very little of. But what is important here is that it's religious, which again eats into his AKP votes.

Overall, a very solid group of politicians that will cause Erdoğan many sleepless nights in the next few months (sorry if it's not the info you wanted. I don't currently live in Turkey and get most of my info by word of mouth).

berbatrick said:
Does the HDP or any equivalent still exist?
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Yeah, but the AKP have done their best to try and kill them off. In fact, they put Selahattin Demirtaş in jail, and he'll be running as their candidate from prison. Bizarre, right? I hope he sweeps up the Kurdish votes and they send a message to a man who's been stabbing them in the back for far too long.
 
Fener1907 said:
Overall, a very solid group of politicians that will cause Erdoğan many sleepless nights in the next few months.
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Good to know. Been reading a bit about the Iyi Party, still not sure what exactly differentiates it in terms of policy and ideological orientation from the CHP?

Also, does Akşener's departure mean the MHP is now pretty much firmly under Erdogan's thumb?
 
2cents said:
Good to know. Been reading a bit about the Iyi Party, still not sure what exactly differentiates it in terms of policy and ideological orientation from the CHP?

Also, does Akşener's departure mean the MHP is now pretty much firmly under Erdogan's thumb?
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A less intense version of the MHP, perhaps? I guess they're just the evolution of the MHP, which is to say they have shed the dead weight of Devlet Bahçeli. They will continue to emphasise Turkish nationalism and whatever else it is they originally stood for, and would develop their character post-election, whatever that climate may be.

Yes, the MHP is now under the control of him. Truth be told, Bahçeli was always his chief enabler. As far as I know, he was the politician who prompted the election that would see the AKP enter the stage and wipe out the rest. I've never trusted him, and it seems he can't even be bothered to keep up the pretense in his old age.
 
Fener1907 said:
The Saadet Partisi is also fielding a strong candidate who I know very little of. But what is important here is that it's religious, which again eats into his AKP votes.
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Karamollaoglu, from the very little that I've seen of him, has a grandfather-like charm and grace to him untypical of Islamist-leaning politicians in Turkey, or anywhere in the Muslim world for that matter. Despise Islamism and any of its derivatives but I'll have to admit he's quite a cool guy and could surprise a few punters.
 
Kopral Jono said:
Karamollaoglu, from the very little that I've seen of him, has a grandfather-like charm and grace to him untypical of Islamist-leaning politicians in Turkey, or anywhere in the Muslim world for that matter. Despise Islamism and any of its derivatives but I'll have to admit he's quite a cool guy and could surprise a few punters.
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I've heard he's a lefty, so that might explain why he comes across as different from what you might expect. To be fair, there must be a few religious people in Turkey who are sick of the dictator, and it will be nice for them to have an alternative option since they'd never vote CHP or HDP. I'm certainly sick of seeing him monopolise the religious vote. It's about time they wrestled some of it away from him.
 
Fener1907 said:
A less intense version of the MHP, perhaps? I guess they're just the evolution of the MHP, which is to say they have shed the dead weight of Devlet Bahçeli. They will continue to emphasise Turkish nationalism and whatever else it is they originally stood for, and would develop their character post-election, whatever that climate may be.

Yes, the MHP is now under the control of him. Truth be told, Bahçeli was always his chief enabler. As far as I know, he was the politician who prompted the election that would see the AKP enter the stage and wipe out the rest. I've never trusted him, and it seems he can't even be bothered to keep up the pretense in his old age.
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As the joke goes, 'Bahceli: the AKP Minister for MHP Affairs'! :lol:

Fener1907 said:
I've heard he's a lefty, so that might explain why he comes across as different from what you might expect. To be fair, there must be a few religious people in Turkey who are sick of the dictator, and it will be nice for them to have an alternative option since they'd never vote CHP or HDP. I'm certainly sick of seeing him monopolise the religious vote. It's about time they wrestled some of it away from him.
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This is why I personally think Aksener is the coalition's best bet to beat Erdogan if the election goes to a run-off. Hard-line secularists who'll have reservations on voting for Karamollaoglu and, likewise, disgruntled religious voters but who just won't vote for a CHP candidate regardless of circumstances, should be able to rally together for Aksener. Unlikely as I feel if it goes to the second round it'll be Ince, but if that scenario turns out to be the case, the million lira question is whether Aksener can garner just enough Kurdish votes to get her over the line. Interesting times indeed.
 
Kopral Jono said:
As the joke goes, 'Bahceli: the AKP Minister for MHP Affairs'! :lol:

This is why I personally think Aksener is the coalition's best bet to beat Erdogan if the election goes to a run-off. Hard-line secularists who'll have reservations on voting for Karamollaoglu and, likewise, disgruntled religious voters but who just won't vote for a CHP candidate regardless of circumstances, should be able to rally together for Aksener. Unlikely as I feel if it goes to the second round it'll be Ince, but if that scenario turns out to be the case, the million lira question is whether Aksener can garner just enough Kurdish votes to get her over the line. Interesting times indeed.
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I like how his name is Bahçeli. Clearly a place Erdoğan likes to mark his territory.

Absolutely agree. It should definitely be her, although Ince is the best CHP candidate I can remember since Mansur Yavaş (beat Melih Gökçek and was robbed of the election for mayor in Ankara) and has greater potential than the rest of them to bring in the votes from other parties. Still, for reasons you already mentioned, Akşener has a broader appeal, and she could easily give him a run for his money if the weight of CHP is thrown behind her.

As for the Kurdish vote, she doesn't have that MHP stigma attached to her, so that's a good place to start. But are you sure it's only a million lira question? With the way the Turkish economy is going, that might get soon you a whole £10 :lol:
 
How Has the Gülen Movement Ended Up Where It Is?

Much of recent debate on the Gülen movement is, not surprisingly, framed in the context of the July 2016 coup attempt that the Turkish government blames on the followers of U.S.-based Turkish preacher Fethullah Gülen.

Although relevant, however, it paradoxically obstructs the analysis of many other critical factors pertaining the inner dynamics of the Gülen movement.

It is also more helpful to observe problems linked with the Gülen movement as a result of the in-group dynamics that led to what we know about the present-day predicament of the Gülen movement.

How come did Gülen Movement ended up where it is now?

Let me elaborate.

https://ahvalnews2.com/gulen-movement/how-has-gulen-movement-ended-where-it
 
Maybe he can come back, make a big show of voting and being a big part of the AKP, and then run off back to Germany and Austria like the rest of them do.

Used to live opposite some Austrian Turks and they were really weird.
 
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