Top 4 race / race abandoned (or maybe not) / Leicester & Chelsea in the process of bottling it
- Thread starter Andycoleno9
- Start date
Would have been Justin for England easy if not for injury. 
The Leicester vs Chelsea will be the most interesting game in the run in considering they will also face each other the cup final and with their tough run in's, a slip up in this match for either side could easily see one of them lose their top 4 spot, It wouldn't be a surprise though if both chelsea and Leicester play for a draw when they meet to help both teams hold on to a top 4 spot
Far from sorted, Chelsea have City, Arsenal, Leicester, Villa in PL. They are only 3 points ahead of 5th placed West Ham.
West Ham have Everton, Brighton, West Brom, Southapton in PL.
Even Liverpool games are all easy ones except vs us. If they win vs us (which is very much possible) they will be just 4 points behind Chelsea with easier run of games.
Teams won't them all, one of the reason why they are in top 4 fight but going by fixture list, face for top 4 is far from done.
I'm risking looking silly come the end of May but I feel if West Ham were going to have a serious shot at this they'd have got a result or at the very least a good performance vs us, that was their big chance to stamp their authority on the top four race and they completely lost their nerve.
To be fair they were missing Rice and Antonio, and that is just one game. Your next 3 are City, Arsenal and Leicester - still potential to drop 4+ points points out of those and allow them to sneak back in. Even Villa on final day won't be easy if they're not already on their holidays.
One game but their was already signs they were losing their nerve by blowing a three goal lead vs Arsenal then coming close to doing the same for the two games afterwards.
I would say Everton are a tougher game than Arsenal and Brighton away is a lot harder than their position suggests.
My biggest worry is Liverpool and their experience grinding out the results required, I remember in Ancelotti's second season where we secured 2nd despite being awful for most of the season and Liverpool's squad is of a similar profile to that one (past their best but still players who know how to win all over the pitch).
Chelsea will drop points, but I'm sure West Ham and Liverpool will drop more. I'd love West Ham to get it, they should with their fixtures, but they look nervy.
In theory Liverpool should be the safest bet with their experience, but it would go against how their season has gone to basically win all their remaining games.
In theory Liverpool should be the safest bet with their experience, but it would go against how their season has gone to basically win all their remaining games.
So under the new UEFA CL rules, if they were applied to this seasons top 4 race then Liverpool would potentially take a CL place off Chelsea, West Ham or Leicester if they finished outside of the top 4?
No, there would be extra places not taking from someone else, I think anyway.
The other thing I forgot was they were down to 10 in that game for something which was a very harsh red.
I would still just about make you favourites for top 4 but think your fixtures look more difficult, especially when you still have to contend with the 2nd leg of the Champions League semi and the FA Cup final before the season is out.
Chelsea's goal difference is +22, West Ham's is +11. So the latter will probably have to win all their remaining fixtures and hope Chelsea drops at least 4 points. It's possible, but what looks easy on paper may not be so in reality.
That's true, I was replying to the post that said "Top 4 looks sorted" when the fixtures list looks bit tougher.
Its not that much really. Say City wins 3-0 and West Hame beat Everton 2-0. Its basically cut in half over one weekend. Chelsea arent high scorers so West Ham do have a chance. Especially when their fixtures are against sides they could score hatfuls against.
I think it's a race for two spots now. If Leicester should drop points against Newcastle, they're right in the thick of it, and other than that they have remaining games against us, Chelsea and Spurs. Two losses in those four games, and they'll drop below 70 points. They still have a greater margin of error on the others though.
Chelsea is I think still in the best position among the remainder, despite four difficult games remaining (City, Arsenal, Leicester, Villa). They can afford to lose one of them and still reach 70 points, if they win the rest.
West Ham need to win all of their remaining games to reach 70 - although that does not seem undoable (Everton, Southampton, West Brom, Brighton).
Those are the teams that can still reach 70 points. Tottenham and Liverpool can only get a maximum of 68 and 69 points respectively. Which means that to make top 4, they'll need two of the three teams ahead of them to trip up, combined with not dropping any further points themselves. That seems to me unlikely to happen.
Everton can only get to 67, and the loss against Villa effectively ended any real chance for top 4.
I mean, West Ham aren't high scorers either, nearly identical number of goals scored, but we do have a great defence so the likelihood of Chelsea suddenly starting to sieve goals for them to make up a 11 goal difference in 4 games is incredibly unlikely.
Sets up 2 very very intriguing matches esp. for the neutral.
Except that might be a very bad result for Chelsea, unless they've already beaten City and Arsenal. If they've dropped any points in those two games they have to beat Leicester, or risk being overtaken by West Ham and Liverpool. Unless West Ham and Liverpool have dropped points too. It might not be a good result for Leicester either, if they drop points in the preceding games. Bottom line I guess is it's too early to tell.
We know this though: To stay clear of Liverpool, Tottenham and West Ham (on goal differential), they need 9 points. Ie, three wins. Which means a draw is not of much use to them, from the perspective of controlling their own destiny.
Yeah, dont think West Ham will match Chelsea's GD. Their best bet is Chelsea drawing tough games and West Ham winning theirs.
Yeah I agree. My prediction before the West Ham game was that we'll lose to City but win the rest. I feel pretty confident in that prediction. I think West Ham could sneak in there, but at the expense of Leicester.
Yeah, Chelsea should be favorites for the game but those are tricky games.
I think top 4 will remain as it is but will be very close.
Those two away games at United and Chelsea could be Leicester's undoing. If they avoid losing in one of them, that would secure them I think, provided they beat Newcastle beforehand.
And Spurs in the last one.
Yeah Leicester have very tough fixtures too. ManUtd, Chelsea, Spurs in the last 3 games and also cup finals in between which might play big role.
Arsenal have been average whole season but when they play Chelsea it'll be derby so it's not an automatic win for Chelsea even though they are clear favorites. On the other hand Chelsea can frustrate City on Saturday and take a point at least, can see it happening, they obviously know how to beat them as we saw recently in FA cup.
Arsenal have won 1 pt less than Chelsea in their last 20 games. They can definitely be expected to put up a fight.
Sorry georgipep, where's that table from? Seems a nice resource.
"Last 20 games" includes the last of the Lampard period though, so not sure how much of a measure that is, in this case.
"Last 20 games" includes the last of the Lampard period though, so not sure how much of a measure that is, in this case.
Taking a point against City is unlikely to make much difference though. They need 9 in 4 games to put themselves clear without relying on others tripping up.
The way this season has gone, I don't see anyone winning every game to the end, including us. I can see teams not taking a loss until the end.
Theyve routinely gone on 3 goal leads over the last month!. Jesse has them scoring goals now.
I didnt say its definite but its easily doable. Like I said, a 3-0 loss to City and a 2-0 win v Everton has that down to 6 goals and they have the easier teams to score against coming up.
Worth noting in this respect that there is currently no team in the PL who've won their last 4 games. The picture will change for sure.
I think you're onto a red herring here. Chelsea's goal differential will only fail to improve if they don't win games, West Ham's will only improve if they win games. And if West Ham win games and Chelsea don't, you'll pass them on points long before you pass them on goal differential. Barring any freak megascore results, at least.
Im only going on Chelsea losing v City and the two winning till the end. Thats when goal difference should really come into play since theres now 3 points in it.
West Ham could ramp up the goals v West Brom and Southampton if theyre on it. It isnt that out of line while Chelseas fixtures looks a lot tougher where simply win would do. They even have Brighton who got beat by Sheff Utd last week.
West Ham for all the good they've done this season have only won four in a row once, the assumption they will win out is pretty hilarious!
Imagine if Leicester dropped out on the last day again. They'd have been in the top 4 for like 95% of premier league weeks in the past 2 seasons, except the two weeks where it matters!
Could very well happen! They'll be facing Spurs in the last game, who may well need to win to gain a EL spot.
If Dippers finish 4th I would entertain a Chelsea and Arsenal CL/EL double. Or at least if that happened a EL defeat would be cushioned.
Another damaging result for Leicester and they haven't even reached their tough games yet, assuming West Ham win their game in hand Leicester will only be 2 points clear of 5th place
Massively fancy West Ham to finish above Leicester now, still might not be enough to make top 4 though as Liverpool could win 4/5 given where the Man. United game has been placed so they'll be very close.
Chelsea making it is NID given their general form in last 3 months.
Chelsea making it is NID given their general form in last 3 months.
Chelsea's remaining games make even their place not secure