Agreed, though I do think Chelsea will drop points v City this weekend, and if that happens then it would be a straight shootout between them and Leicester in their head to head
Here's one way to look at it.
First column is to what extent each team has this in their own hands (max attainable points).
Second column is "blind" projected points, ie, just assuming each team will lose to opponents in a higher quality bracket, draw teams in a similar quality bracket and beat teams in a lower quality bracket. Obviously that's not a prediction, but it's a measure of where you end up if the team neither overperforms or underperforms, hence says something about the difficulty of the task ahead.
Chelsea.......... 73.......69 (Dropped points: 2 vs City, 2 vs Leicester)
Leicester.........72.......68 (Dropped points: 2 vs United, 2 vs Chelsea)
West Ham.......70.......68 (Dropped points: 2 vs Everton)
Liverpool..........69......66 (Dropped points: 3 vs United)
Tottenham.......65......62 (Dropped points: 3 vs Leicester)
Everton.............67......62 (Dropped points: 2 vs West Ham, 3 vs City)
Following Spurs-Leeds, it's right now pretty much between 3 teams for 2 spots. But if Liverpool beat us on Thursday, they're joining the party (provided they win against Southampton today. If they don't, it's about making the Europa League for them).