Top 4 race 2016/17

Cassady said:
All United can do is keep playing well and keep winning and hope one or two of the teams above you slip up. We are in the same position with catching Chelsea. Most of you seem to think it will be Liverpool who will slip up. I think if one team you will overtake it's Spurs.
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Not sure if that's true or just an impression due to the amount of Liverpool fans on here, that will inevitably get some light-hearted stick from the rest of the forum. Most of us seem to think that you lack depth, and are suspect defensively; but being out of Europe depth isn't much of an issue (barring an injury crisis), and you score enough goals to beat weaker teams fairly comfortably.

I'd say Spurs is the likeliest one for most of us, if nothing else due to the points difference being lower and the fact that they're in the Europa League too. After that, barring Chelsea, I've seen arguments for all the teams. The one I personally wouldn't overlook is City. They're talented enough to be challenging for the title, but if Chelsea keep on as they are, I could see their players being less up for a top 4 struggle than, say, Arsenal.
 
Arsenal manage to somehow stay in the top four every season, so much so that I think the 'nailed on' finishers in those positions are only Chelsea and Arsenal so far. I think it's a fair assessment that Chelsea's strength in depth isn't quite as good as some other sides, but it's off-set by the fact they aren't in Europe. Liverpool are in a similar situation. People also stress that injuries to key players will cost these teams if they happen, but I'm not so sure. Maybe a long-term absence, yes, but both sides have had injuries/suspensions involving their best performers (Costa, Hazard; Lallana, Coutinho) and still come up with the wins without them.

Spurs are an odd one. Not much has changed for them from last season, except maybe their confidence has taken a hit after finishing the season so poorly last term when a lot of people thought they'd even pip Leicester to it. As of right now, they look the most likely to fall short even though we're behind them (all can change in a few weeks though, of course). I fully expect them to drop points tonight away at Saints.

So, my expectation right now is that Chelsea stay on top throughout (maybe a slight wobble where a team overtakes them when Chelsea play second on occasion, but they still end up pulling away again by a couple of results) and Arsenal finish 3rd or 4th. The rest, it's honestly balls in a sack and pick them out in any order. Can't call it yet, wait until March and I think the top 3 will be looking set at least.

We still have by far the most to do to get anything from this season, let's hope Europa League commitments don't ruin the Premier League for us too much.
 
Timdbro said:
Not sure if that's true or just an impression due to the amount of Liverpool fans on here, that will inevitably get some light-hearted stick from the rest of the forum. Most of us seem to think that you lack depth, and are suspect defensively; but being out of Europe depth isn't much of an issue (barring an injury crisis), and you score enough goals to beat weaker teams fairly comfortably.

I'd say Spurs is the likeliest one for most of us, if nothing else due to the points difference being lower and the fact that they're in the Europa League too. After that, barring Chelsea, I've seen arguments for all the teams. The one I personally wouldn't overlook is City. They're talented enough to be challenging for the title, but if Chelsea keep on as they are, I could see their players being less up for a top 4 struggle than, say, Arsenal.
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Good points.

What worries me is our fixture list from mid march I think it is. It is against the lesser clubs which always seems to be our achilles heel. Bournemouth and Burnley. Some of these clubs will be fighting for survival come April / May.

I will have a gander at our fuxtures again.
 
Thisistheone said:
Wishful thinking on our part. You'll pull away from us if anything. Klopp has got something going there and he's a brilliant manager.
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I love reverse psychology.

:D

You have the Europa to contend with. When was your last game in it by the way. I know you played someone shit a few weeks ago but had you already qualified and were players rested ?

The next five weeks is very important and I think we will all have more of an idea . We play Citeh , United and Chelsea.

Win our home games and Iam happy. Get six or more points Iam very happy.

Next game is Citeh.

Bring the feckers on !!!
 
Cassady said:
I love reverse psychology.

:D

You have the Europa to contend with. When was your last game in it by the way. I know you played someone shit a few weeks ago but had you already qualified and were players rested ?

The next five weeks is very important and I think we will all have more of an idea . We play Citeh , United and Chelsea.

Win our home games and Iam happy. Get six or more points Iam very happy.

Next game is Citeh.

Bring the feckers on !!!
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8th December. I think we failed to win a game after each Thursday night match (or maybe just 1 win?) until Spurs. And since it's finished we've won all our games. So it's clearly impacted our season and probably will do again when it resumes in February.

Agree, January is a big big month and we'll know more come Feb. But as I've said elsewhere my prediction is you and Chelsea are in a 2 horse race.
 
Thisistheone said:
8th December. I think we failed to win a game after each Thursday night match (or maybe just 1 win?) until Spurs. And since it's finished we've won all our games. So it's clearly impacted our season and probably will do again when it resumes in February.

Agree, January is a big big month and we'll know more come Feb. But as I've said elsewhere my prediction is you and Chelsea are in a 2 horse race.
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I think Europa had the same effect on us . I like to have a flutter on the footie and never back a team after a European game. I think Jose may need to prioritise top four or the Europa . By all means try to win it . We had the same situation last season and went all out to win the thing once we knocked out United ( couldnt resist ) and got beat in the final. Kick in the teeth the was.

This is a tough question.

Whats your best chance ?

Winning the Europa or top four ?

You can of course do both but it's going to be difficult. Also. Having no European football for one season is not such a bad thing. It's a kick in the plums but look at us this season in 2013/14.
 
Cassady said:
This is a tough question.

Whats your best chance ?

Winning the Europa or top four ?
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That's a tricky question as I think the Europa is tough to win and has some good teams in it. Plus anything can happen in knock out football so I'm leaning towards top 4 being more attainable.
 
Santi_Mesut_Alexis_87 said:
Knowing our history, i would say us, but we should still be good enough to finish at least 4th. It's tight, fecking tight from 2nd to 6th.
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You always finish in the top four. If Arsenal do drop out of it this season then it's ta ra Arsene.

That may not be such a bad thing for youse by the way.
 
Update of the prediction model someone posted earlier in this thread:



Our chances have improved slightly but we're still rooted to 6th.
 
Leftback99 said:
Update of the prediction model someone posted earlier in this thread:



Our chances have improved slightly but we're still rooted to 6th.
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Clubelo also has you on 6th at this point in time. They use a very different approach (ELO), interesting that they come to similar conclusions. http://clubelo.com/ManUnited
 
SammyUnited_83 said:
The discussion on fixtures is a pointless one, teams go through phases of being in and out of form. Also, if your last game of the season was against one of the 'big' clubs, who had nothing to play for, or Palace who needed a point to stay up, who would you rather play?

It's completely and utterly irrelevant.
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Its not completely and utterly irrelevent at all. We haven't won at Stamford Bridge for yonks. We almost never win at the Emirates. We don't tend to win at the Etihad and until very recently, we barely scratched the surface at OT either. Anfield has been only marginally better.

This is regardless of the time of the season.

Yes teams go through phases. But I'd rather get the bogey teams and stadia out of the way earlier if possible.

To answer your question, I'd rather play at Selhurst Park against a CP needed points to stay up vs a Chelsea at Stamford Bridge who'd already won the league. No doubt about it.

We relegated an absolutely shite Birmingham needing points to stay up a few seasons ago and put four past them in their own stadium if I remember correctly. Can't see us doing that at Stamford Bridge or at the Emirates (at least not without a very similar number of goals conceded).

Not saying that it is the be all and end all by any means but it certainly does play a factor.
 
ti vu said:
Not my point. The thing is the counterfactual thing @Treble doing there is not applicable for this instance. Costa wanted out all summer but Conte & Chelsea recognized his importance. They actively searched for a back up forward, bought that Belgium guy but was keen on even taking Morata at some point. Good thing is Costa didn't get injury, but they actively prepared for the bad scenario.

In the other hand, Tottenham spent all summer for Janssen, knowing full well Kane has played too much football in the last 2 years, and maybe overloaded at some point especially for the style Poch used, let alone injury is inevitable. That's bad planning right there not checking for another proven player while conveniently ignoring the clear sign of a slowed down/ burnt out Kane since the run in of last season until now? Hypothesize about a injury free & top form Kane after that much of nonstop football is borderline wishful thinking.

Too many kneejerk on here I give you that. But then there is still rational people who were positive about our performance back then. With the reachable gap to 4th of course another kneejerk is expected. Like you said, this season is very interesting, not the time to draw any conclusion yet.
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Right...we don't exactly have the resources of Chelsea though. Iirc, we tried for Batshuyai and he chose Chelsea.

We have neither the money nor the prestige to have a striker of a similar stature and ability to Kane to sit on the bench and come on for 15 seconds against Bournemouth.

Didn't Kane get injured in a collision? Not sure what that has to do with rest really?
 
As we near the halfway point:

NF3BOu5.png
 
Some positives about the upcoming fixtures-

Tottenham play away to Watford on Sunday without Walker and Vertonghen and will have 2 day's less rest than Watford. They then play Chelsea on the 4th with Chelsea having an extra day's rest.

Arsenal play Bournemouth on the 3rd with Bournemouth having had an extra day's rest.

Liverpool and Manchester City play each other.
 
Leftback99 said:
Update of the prediction model someone posted earlier in this thread:



Our chances have improved slightly but we're still rooted to 6th.
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18% chance we make top 4 vs 74% chance that we finish 5th or 6th. Given its an actuarial algorithm from the FT I'd say it has merit.

Getting top 4 is gonna be very difficult indeed.
 
Klopp is a very good manager, Liverpool will finish top 3 this season. Despite having many average players, he moulds them to play well in a very good system. The system he uses will be found out in the PL just like it was in the bundesliga but it won't be happening this year.
 
Damien said:
As we near the halfway point:

NF3BOu5.png
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When you put it like that, despite stringing 4 wins on a trot, we're still 4 points off Arsenal with a much inferior GD. Last season, our horror December run cost us big time as we missed out on Top 4. Can't help but feel that run of 2 wins in 11 will come to bite us in the ass come May.
 
Terminator said:
Klopp is a very good manager, Liverpool will finish top 3 this season. Despite having many average players, he moulds them to play well in a very good system. The system he uses will be found out in the PL just like it was in the bundesliga but it won't be happening this year.
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This is the point, so for me Spurs aside it is them we are chasing.
 
Its frustrating that we would be in the top 4 if our manager made easy decisions like playing Martial and Mkh from day 1. Mou has done well overall but its frustrating that his selections have cost us big, think the Europa may be our best chance as the other top 4/5 are strong
 
Scholesy said:
Its frustrating that we would be in the top 4 if our manager made easy decisions like playing Martial and Mkh from day 1. Mou has done well overall but its frustrating that his selections have cost us big, think the Europa may be our best chance as the other top 4/5 are strong
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:lol: Here we go again.
 
It's frustrating to be going through a period of good form while nobody else is dropping points. We're going to need to beat all the teams above us to stand a chance of making the top four.
 
Terminator said:
Klopp is a very good manager, Liverpool will finish top 3 this season. Despite having many average players, he moulds them to play well in a very good system. The system he uses will be found out in the PL just like it was in the bundesliga but it won't be happening this year.
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Which system is this? As we play a more possession based game compared to his Dortmund side.
 
sammsky1 said:
18% chance we make top 4 vs 74% chance that we finish 5th or 6th. Given its an actuarial algorithm from the FT I'd say it has merit.

Getting top 4 is gonna be very difficult indeed.
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It's difficult for every side though. There's this mindset that one team has to drop out as if we need someone to go on a bad run rather than United stepping up and taking a CL spot.
I view it differently. I think we'll match their runs and better it. Next week is huge for us with City v Liverpool. We beat Boro and take our form into Liverpool at home and in two games time we could be touching 2nd place never mind 5th.
 
cyberman said:
It's difficult for every side though. There's this mindset that one team has to drop out as if we need someone to go on a bad run rather than United stepping up and taking a CL spot.
I view it differently. I think we'll match their runs and better it. Next week is huge for us with City v Liverpool. We beat Boro and take our form into Liverpool at home and in two games time we could be touching 2nd place never mind 5th.
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We've got West Ham away between those two games and they're in good form now.
 
Damien said:
We've got West Ham away between those two games and they're in good form now.
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Funny thing is, the way we're playing right now, I'm not really fearing any teams. West Brom away was meant to be a hard test for us, but we dealt with that game perfectly. Now that we have the likes of Mkhi and Martial back in the mix, I reckon we'll be relatively fine against smaller teams again.
 
Santi_Mesut_Alexis_87 said:
:lol: I think he would accept the challenge to show he can do better than Wenger at Arsenal :p
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Here's one for you ?

When Arsene goes which he will one day and maybe soon then who would you like to have or get ?

Don't name anyone that is unlikely to leave their current post.
 
Damien said:
Wasn't it after that game or the Arsenal game that they changed formation?
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A team that wins their first three then draws one
at the start of the season has hit the floor running and is in their.... groove.

Liverpool turn up and snot them then all of a sudden they aren't in their groove?

Nah !
 
We'll grab all points against Middlesbrough, scrape a win against West Ham away, and then thoroughly beat Liverpool at home, at which point we'll sneak into the top four. After that, we won't be looking back.
 
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