I think United are good now.
Would love for Wolves to sneak in.
Would love for Wolves to sneak in.
Top 4 Race 19/20 | duffer: "We [Chelsea] are getting 3rd. Despite what the lunatics in here think, Man United are not all that."
- Thread starter Andy_Cole
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With our fixture list, I'd be pretty disappointed if we don't get top four now. We need to keep our best players fit! It's such a cliche but I don't want the team to look too far ahead.
It really should be an easy 3 points on Saturday and if we're comfortable at the 60 minute mark, I'd take off our key players again. They will need to be rested during games now with our fixture list. We also play before Chelsea so it's a good opportunity to overtake them temporarily and mount pressure on them before they play Watford.
Goal difference may also come into play, so we've got to keep an eye on that!
It really should be an easy 3 points on Saturday and if we're comfortable at the 60 minute mark, I'd take off our key players again. They will need to be rested during games now with our fixture list. We also play before Chelsea so it's a good opportunity to overtake them temporarily and mount pressure on them before they play Watford.
Goal difference may also come into play, so we've got to keep an eye on that!
It's hard to believe Leicester messed this up so badly. Us and Chelsea have been all over the place for most of the season but there even seemed a point where Leicester could have possibly nicked second place on the outside chance. They're blowing it big time.
Starting to think Wolves and United might get the places.
Starting to think Wolves and United might get the places.
We weren't playing City on the last day, though.
Nope, I still think is in our hands
Still very tight and I still maintain that United do well to take the final game into a scenario where a win secures 4th. Obviously it was a great week for us, but we're still essentially four points behind Leicester and two behind Chelsea with six games to play.
FiveThirtyEight's modelling puts virtually nothing between Leicester, Chelsea and United now, with Wolves a little farther back. On average all three of us finish on 65 points, but with the decimal places edging Chelsea ahead of Leicester and United on average points, with Wolves on 62. The average position in the final league table of 4th clubs is in the same order (illogically that's not always the case). However, in terms of predicting who finishes in the top 5 and CL spots (assuming City's ban is upheld), Leicester are 86% likely, United 85%, Chelsea 82% and Wolves 40%. Interesting the contradiction between Chelsea's mean points and mean final position being the best, but their chance of finishing top 5 only being third best.
We could well get a situation where the final day leaves Leicester vs United or Chelsea vs Wolves with a biscotto and a stalemate guarantees both sides top 4 at the expense of the participants in the other match.
FiveThirtyEight's modelling puts virtually nothing between Leicester, Chelsea and United now, with Wolves a little farther back. On average all three of us finish on 65 points, but with the decimal places edging Chelsea ahead of Leicester and United on average points, with Wolves on 62. The average position in the final league table of 4th clubs is in the same order (illogically that's not always the case). However, in terms of predicting who finishes in the top 5 and CL spots (assuming City's ban is upheld), Leicester are 86% likely, United 85%, Chelsea 82% and Wolves 40%. Interesting the contradiction between Chelsea's mean points and mean final position being the best, but their chance of finishing top 5 only being third best.
We could well get a situation where the final day leaves Leicester vs United or Chelsea vs Wolves with a biscotto and a stalemate guarantees both sides top 4 at the expense of the participants in the other match.
Haven't had a chance to read back through the thread but I'm just delighted that finally top 4 is back in our own hands.
Fantastic position to be in but I‘m not on board with the „boost our gd“ voices. It reminds me of Liverpool‘s Crystanbul arrogance.
Let’s win as many as possible as convincing as possible and see where that leaves us. We still have the chance to go full Hail Mary against Leicester if necessary.
I think we‘ll manage without gd being the deciding factor anyway.
Let’s win as many as possible as convincing as possible and see where that leaves us. We still have the chance to go full Hail Mary against Leicester if necessary.
I think we‘ll manage without gd being the deciding factor anyway.
Some really clueless posts in this thread. Short and simple:
Yes Leicester and Chelsea are technically in the driving seats. But United and Wolves have it in their own hands as of tonight. Neither had it in their own hands before tonight.
The only way it isn't in United/Wolves' hands is if on the final day they need something ridiculous like a 10 goal swing in the final half an hour. That kind of stuff doesn't happen in professional football. But as of right now they have 6 games left to make up the goal difference. Whether they're good enough to do so or not is completely irrelevant. The point is that they control their own destiny now. If Leicester and Chelsea win their games by 1-2 goal margins, United and Wolves have it in their own hands to win their games by a bigger margin and creep in on goal difference. Before tonight if Leicester and Chelsea had won all their games 1-0 then it wouldn't have mattered if United and Wolves had won all their games 10-0.
- It's in Leicester's hands. Why? Because they are third. If they win all their matches they finish top 4.
- It's in Chelsea's hands. Why? Because they are fourth. If they win all their matches they finish top 4.
- It's in United's hands. Why? Because we are 3 points behind Leicester and we are yet to play them. Beating them takes us level on points assuming they win all their other games.
- It's in Wolves' hands. Why? They will overtake Chelsea if they win all their games. Because either Leicester and/or United will drop points when they meet, that means Wolves will at worst finish level on points with either one or both of them.
Yes Leicester and Chelsea are technically in the driving seats. But United and Wolves have it in their own hands as of tonight. Neither had it in their own hands before tonight.
The only way it isn't in United/Wolves' hands is if on the final day they need something ridiculous like a 10 goal swing in the final half an hour. That kind of stuff doesn't happen in professional football. But as of right now they have 6 games left to make up the goal difference. Whether they're good enough to do so or not is completely irrelevant. The point is that they control their own destiny now. If Leicester and Chelsea win their games by 1-2 goal margins, United and Wolves have it in their own hands to win their games by a bigger margin and creep in on goal difference. Before tonight if Leicester and Chelsea had won all their games 1-0 then it wouldn't have mattered if United and Wolves had won all their games 10-0.
The goal difference brigade are always a funny one. They’d try to convince you that the reason we lost a title was because we didn’t bang in however many extra goals in the games we won or those we lost by at least two, as opposed to scoring a single goal in any of the games we drew or lost by one to earn another point.
Agreed.
That you didn’t have the chance to read back through the thread.
Is this Moyes’s biggest win for us?
Safe to say, safety’s back in their hands now. West Ham’s hands, not ours.
Safe to say, safety’s back in their hands now. West Ham’s hands, not ours.
If Leicester wins all their games then credit on them, give hats off for winning all the tough games, truly deserve that top 4. At the end of the day, they have tougher fixtures compare to ours that have winnable games. If we don't get top 4, I would rather us not getting it but still win 7 out of 8 games (Leicester game must win) post Spurs games than dropping lot of points in our winnable games. This is why the top 4 was always depending on our own result not their result since that Spurs game.
Interesting debate! Let's make this a bit awkward. So ...
I initially was firmly on the logical side that it's not in our hands as we need other teams to do worse than us in games we're not involved in and can't influence.
However, one could say it would be in our hands only if Leicester were to play all their remaining fixtures before our corresponding fixtures (I don't think they do in all fairness - just speculating they do for arguments sake).
Here's why it would be considered in our hands in such a scenario: (Completely ignoring probability and looking at possibility)
If they play and even win before we do, it's actually in our hands to try and win bigger.
So even if Leicester win all their games before the final day, we would aim to win each of our corresponding games, which would be within our sphere of influence, with bigger win margins (a net goal return of + 2 over whatever their net goal return is every game).
That would be considered "in our hands" no matter how highly unlikely and extremely difficult the tasks would be to pull off.
Then we'd just need to win them on the final
day.
Funny that all that improbable logic rests on an almost definitely false pretext that Leicester's remaining fixtures are scheduled to come before our corresponding ones!
O boredom ...
I initially was firmly on the logical side that it's not in our hands as we need other teams to do worse than us in games we're not involved in and can't influence.
However, one could say it would be in our hands only if Leicester were to play all their remaining fixtures before our corresponding fixtures (I don't think they do in all fairness - just speculating they do for arguments sake).
Here's why it would be considered in our hands in such a scenario: (Completely ignoring probability and looking at possibility)
If they play and even win before we do, it's actually in our hands to try and win bigger.
So even if Leicester win all their games before the final day, we would aim to win each of our corresponding games, which would be within our sphere of influence, with bigger win margins (a net goal return of + 2 over whatever their net goal return is every game).
That would be considered "in our hands" no matter how highly unlikely and extremely difficult the tasks would be to pull off.
Then we'd just need to win them on the final
day.
Funny that all that improbable logic rests on an almost definitely false pretext that Leicester's remaining fixtures are scheduled to come before our corresponding ones!
O boredom ...don’t forget that away goals count for double. One nil and job done.
Just to out 'pendant' you, it is definitely in our hands. If Leicester win every game until we play them, we just need to win every game and beat them by enough goals to overturn the goal difference.
Last round of matches won't be changed as they are played simultaneously so our game against Leicester would be final game of the season for both of us in the league .Interesting debate! Let's make this a bit awkward. So ...
I initially was firmly on the logical side that it's not in our hands as we need other teams to do worse than us in games we're not involved in and can't influence.
However, one could say it would be in our hands only if Leicester were to play all their remaining fixtures before our corresponding fixtures (I don't think they do in all fairness - just speculating they do for arguments sake).
Here's why it would be considered in our hands in such a scenario: (Completely ignoring probability and looking at possibility)
If they play and even win before we do, it's actually in our hands to try and win bigger.
So even if Leicester win all their games before the final day, we would aim to win each of our corresponding games, which would be within our sphere of influence, with bigger win margins (a net goal return of + 2 over whatever their net goal return is every game).
That would be considered "in our hands" no matter how highly unlikely and extremely difficult the tasks would be to pull off.
Then we'd just need to win them on the final
day.
Funny that all that improbable logic rests on an almost definitely false pretext that Leicester's remaining fixtures are scheduled to come before our corresponding ones!
Assuming it's Leicester place in top 4 we are taking ignoring Chelsea and Wolves then it certainly in our hands even if Leicester gain maximum points prior to our meeting and we do the same we would know what exactly needs to be done on final day even if we are behind them on goal difference.
Valid point we may have to overturn a big goal difference around but it would still be in our hands but I don't think we'll have to wait till final round of fixtures in fact I am quite confident if we win our next 5matches we wont have to worry about the final day.
If we win a couple of games 6-0 and beat Leicester it will definitely be in our hands. 3rd/4th that is. It's not impossible seeing who we have to play, so it is in our hands.
What a brilliant week of results for us. Given Leicesters form we have to fancy our chances. But I don't think we'll win every game either. None of the four teams will. We just have to focus on the next 3 and then take it from. If we can win there on a trot from hereon it'll place us very well.
My only worry is like last year we throw it away just when we get within shooting distance. Hopefully our front 5 will carry us through the next run of games.
My only worry is like last year we throw it away just when we get within shooting distance. Hopefully our front 5 will carry us through the next run of games.
Can we not continue this silly "in our hands" discussion? Leicester barely look capable of winning let alone winning every game. And I don't think we will either. Any team that goes on a proper run will most likely get top 4 anyway. We have to make sure we are among the 1-2 that do that.
A truly brilliant round of results for us. Providing we beat Bournemouth, and I think we do so convincingly, we pile the pressure on Chelsea who play after us. We just need to keep doing what we're doing and we'll make top 4.
Best week after the lock down so far.
Leicester and Chelsea losing hilariously while United winning comfortably at the same time? Long time coming.
Leicester and Chelsea losing hilariously while United winning comfortably at the same time? Long time coming.
Hands!
There goes my remaining post. My 5 points for the day is over. Cheers! I'm out.
There goes my remaining post. My 5 points for the day is over. Cheers! I'm out.
Well yet again Chelsea have left the door slightly ajar to top four but this is different as we have an opportunity to move into fourth spot on Sat for the first time in ages, just hope we don't make the same mistakes as in the autumn when we failed to take advantage of them dropping points.
I am certainly not taking Bournemouth for granted just because they got beat 4-1 at home tonight by Newcastle, I remember when they came to Old Trafford a few seasons ago where they got a 1-1 draw and a certain Tyrone Mings stamped on Zlatan.
I am certainly not taking Bournemouth for granted just because they got beat 4-1 at home tonight by Newcastle, I remember when they came to Old Trafford a few seasons ago where they got a 1-1 draw and a certain Tyrone Mings stamped on Zlatan.
That contradiction is purely an artifact of Chelsea having the worst GD between the teams in spots 3 to 5.
Note that we have gained almost 4 points in their modeling on Leicester in the past 2 weeks, and the models do not account for form directly (only indirectly based off the team's SPI).
What do the bookies say now; have they updated their odds?
1.50 odds for United.
For me, this sumps it up.
https://www.transfermarkt.us/premier-league/formtabelle/wettbewerb/GB1?saison_id=2019&min=12&max=32
Between week 12 and 32, we have 39 pts for 21 games.
Wolves have already played and City can get 41 if they beat Liverpool tomorrow.
Long story short, we are 2nd or 3rd best in term of pts for 21 weeks now.
Leicester are 7th with 32 pts. Chelsea 10th with 31 pts.
That's what makes me think that there is something to play.
In term of goals, we have +38/-20 = +18.
Wolves have +31/-20 = +11.
City has +43/-23 = +20.
Leicester has +33/-23 = +10.
Chelsea has +31/-27 = +4.
Looking at that, I think we can get 3rd. I know that there are too many variables to be able to even accurately predict anything of that sort, but I think we have the team and the consistence to do it now. And most importantly, both Leicester and Chelsea are really far behind us over 21 games.
https://www.transfermarkt.us/premier-league/formtabelle/wettbewerb/GB1?saison_id=2019&min=12&max=32
Between week 12 and 32, we have 39 pts for 21 games.
Wolves have already played and City can get 41 if they beat Liverpool tomorrow.
Long story short, we are 2nd or 3rd best in term of pts for 21 weeks now.
Leicester are 7th with 32 pts. Chelsea 10th with 31 pts.
That's what makes me think that there is something to play.
In term of goals, we have +38/-20 = +18.
Wolves have +31/-20 = +11.
City has +43/-23 = +20.
Leicester has +33/-23 = +10.
Chelsea has +31/-27 = +4.
Looking at that, I think we can get 3rd. I know that there are too many variables to be able to even accurately predict anything of that sort, but I think we have the team and the consistence to do it now. And most importantly, both Leicester and Chelsea are really far behind us over 21 games.
We've got one hand on top 4
I thought football was played with feet!!! Isn't it better to have one foot on top 4 instead?
we got good results yesterday and now we have a much better chance. It’s still not fully in our hands yet. Chelsea and Leicester can also win their remaining games and keep their spots (unlikely as it may seem). They only have to do better than united at each round now.
Our game against Leicester will be a big one. If we manage to close that goal difference down to 1-2 goals, it will really be on. Fingers crossed. Last night’s results should really give our squad a good lift.
No complacency now. We really need to keep the good work going if we want champions league football. I would really like us to leapfrog Leicester before the last game, so we don’t need to win, i.e draw being good enough. Let’s avoid a cup final like game with them!
All of them winning the remaining games? Not gonna happen, Its Leicester vs United and Chelsea vs Wolves in the last fixture. So anyone must drop points or lose, even Arsenal, Spurs, and Shefield still have a chance to enter the race if they could won all the remaining games. Because on paper they still can defeat Chelsea, Leicester, Wolves and will be a bloodbath for them in the next 5 games.
I agree they control their own destiny, but United is in the biggest advantage now. Forget the goal-difference, just focus to beat bottom half teams for the next 5 games then we will be in pole position in top 4 race before match week 38.
any reason you chose 21 games? I really don’t like this kind of an approach where people choose arbit weeks to make a point. We can also take form from Matchday 21-32, where we are fifth on the points total after Arsenal and Wolves, and on the same number of points as Burnley. Also, this includes our recent surge in form.
How is it not completely in our hands assuming both United and Leicester win all of our matches before facing each other we might have to defeat Leicester with an highly unlikely margin but it would be still be possible .
But chances are it won't even go till the last day .
The Gk plays with the hands too though.I thought football was played with feet!!! Isn't it better to have one foot on top 4 instead?
I just realized we have Southampton on the 13th and Palace on the 15th. Only 2 days? Really? We will probably see at least one game without Bruno and Pogba starting; this could be tricky.
Pretty sure Palace will get moved, it's marked as TBD.
Because I think that shows some consistency. I am trying to determine if the trend is viable. Based on those last 21 games, I think our trend is viable, we can catch up and win. Of course, it's not perfect.