Good post, Zarlak, but I don't agree with some things.
You're right, WrestleMania is meant to be more than the current roster, it's meant to get us to remember past wrestlers, it's the biggest PPV of the year. But when you have The Rock returning for a few months to main event WrestleMania or Batista, though I respect him more because he has a longer contract, doing the same thing, you start to question the WWE. It's clear why these things occur and I understand that it's mostly business, but they can't keep ignoring the fans.
My dislike for the company hasn't really been because of this, it's formed because of how they have treated Daniel Bryan. He was blamed for the low buyrates in the last SummerSlam. And since then, they have booked him poorly. The top-level management think that the chant is over, but not Bryan. If that was the case, then why do they shout his name multiple times during a match? Or the "oooooooooooh" when he gets ready to kick another wrestler's head? For me, Bryan is the most over wrestler in a long time. This isn't flavour of the month, it's been like since last year. The irony in all of this... think about how many fans turned in to watch Bryan win the Royal Rumble (or at least feature in it) only to be let down. Roman Reigns was cheered. That's how desperate the fans are for change IMO.
Bryan vs. Bray Wyatt was the best match at Royal Rumble. (Two amazing gifs below.) Even if Bryan wasn't going to win the Royal Rumble match... I would have still liked to see him participate. WWE can make this out as a storyline, but the fans
know the truth. The storyline change yesterday confirms it. You just don't go from main eventing SummerSlam to where he's at now without the top-level management not rating you. Directly below, numbers of the biggest gainers from August to October 2013 and the gifs... Don't forget the gifs. The first graphic below contradicts WWE's stance. Chris Harrington (@mookieghana on Twitter) explains the numbers of the first graphic perfectly:
This looks at quarter-hour viewership changes. There's a host of reasons that viewers tune-in and tune-out through a show. Some of it has to do with specific time periods (top of the hour, the end of show overrun). Some of it has to do with television competition - specifically major sports events like Football games. Some of it has to do with who is on the screen. Some of it has to do with who was on the screen (i.e. big-drop offs following major viewership gains). Some of it just appears to related to the unexplained fickle variations that you get from Nielsen household reporting. Also, people in the first segment can be short-changed. Essentially, there isn't a "delta" to compare them against, so usually the participants for that entire segment don't get credited with anything even though they were on Raw. (In fact, we know that the night after a PPV usually experiences a major 1st hour boost as people tune in to see what transpired last night.) A possible improvement would be to add a secondary variable looking at hourly Raw viewership so we could account for the people that appeared throughout all four quarters (and smooth it out a bit).
This pretends everyone in each "segment" was equally responsible for driving the viewership change. If JTG is destroyed by Brock Lesnar and a half million people tune in, both JTG and Brock would get a +500,000 for that segment. Clearly, there's room for improvement because a thoughtful analysis would consider what acts appear to be driving the quarter-hour rating and what acts just happen to have a little cameo during that time. My workaround was to try and focus on wrestlers that appeared on several shows (not just several segments, but many different episodes of Raw) as well as to look across large swaths of time for the average.
This (mostly) ignores normal Raw ratings patterns. There are quarter-hours when Raw viewership normally picks up and there are quarter-hours where Raw viewership normally drops. After more than two decades, WWE has trained and re-trained their fans about when the important stuff normally happens. Interestingly, the dawn of the weekly 3-hour Raw has generated another set of viewership habits where Raw often loses viewers from the start of the show to the end of the show. WWE is hardly ignorant of the trends, and therefore it's not surprising that they often program similar material and similar people (at least on a status basis) in the same slots week-over-week. In some ways this can become a self-fulfilling prophecy - treat someone like a goof in a blow-off timeslot and the audience will view them that way for a long time. That doesn't "prove" they can't draw- it just shows that the company doesn't think enough of them to protect them. However, without a fulling functioning model of who draws and repulses viewers, all we have is our scattered datapoints. The caveat to this was that I did throw in some safeguards around the "overrun" segment (the "big angle" before WWE goes off the air each week). The overrun segment can see a million people tune in -- now, it says something about your placement in the company when you're in the overrun segment, but on the other hand, it's going to greatly boost your numbers the most often you're slotted in there, and that doesn't necessarily imply you're the driving force behind why those viewership numbers explode. That's why I find it necessary to look at people's numbers with and without overrun included.
I've decided to look at both views. I could have easily isolated August to October, but I think it's important to be impartial. The graphic above represents the numbers of the whole of 2013, and once again - credit to Chris Harrington who explains how the numbers were used:
The viewership number calculated here is an amalgamation of the four numbers I previously mentioned. It's the average of w/ & w/o overrun #s split between where you're using the average method (75% weighting) and the maximum method (25% weighting).
Again, this is quite imperfect but I must say the results do seem to align to general WWE-think. That is to say, when you look at who they push on television and which segments they put those people, there is an intent to promote certain people.
Onto a different but related subject, CM Punk "going home" is great for him. I think it's true but don't quote me on that. He's tried to change the way the company thinks, but he's failed. In his recent interview, he says that he's given up basically. A two-month break last year wasn't enough IMO, Punk was horribly sloppy after his break. But if this gives Bryan the chance to face HHH at WrestleMania, then it's a great thing. I've always hated Punk's ego, however, he's always thought of others in the process.