The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll

[Pogue Mahone]

It's a sensible gamble, the J&J jab will prove an absolute game changer with its single dose regimen if it survives the clinical trials gauntlet (which fingers crossed it looks like its on track to). It means EU countries won't have to make excruciating decisions on delaying a second dose if they can just 'one and done' folks. The issue is supply and of course if its effective.

Apparently they’ve a shareholder’s meeting tomorrow afternoon (US time?) so we might hear some provisional results after that.

 

[711]

Link.

This pleases me. Finally the EU might have made the right call.

Now watch the fecking J&J jab fail!

I can't see what the EU has ordered, but the UK has ordered 30 million, so is hardly left out. Hopefully everyone will get theirs on schedule, if approved of course.

Vaccine	Progress	Doses ordered	Approval	Deployment
Pfizer–BioNTech	phase III clinical trials	40 million	2 December 2020	8 December 2020
Oxford–AstraZeneca	phase III clinical trials	100 million	30 December 2020[12]	4 January 2021[13]
Moderna	phase III clinical trials	17 million[10]	8 January 2021[10]	Pending
Novavax	phase III clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
Valneva	phase I/II clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
GSK/Sanofi Pasteur	phase I/II clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
Janssen	phase III clinical trials	30 million	Pending	Pending

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_programme_in_the_United_Kingdom#Vaccines_on_order

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I can't see what the EU has ordered, but the UK has ordered 30 million, so is hardly left out. Hopefully everyone will get theirs on schedule, if approved of course.

Vaccine	Progress	Doses ordered	Approval	Deployment
Pfizer–BioNTech	phase III clinical trials	40 million	2 December 2020	8 December 2020
Oxford–AstraZeneca	phase III clinical trials	100 million	30 December 2020[12]	4 January 2021[13]
Moderna	phase III clinical trials	17 million[10]	8 January 2021[10]	Pending
Novavax	phase III clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
Valneva	phase I/II clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
GSK/Sanofi Pasteur	phase I/II clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
Janssen	phase III clinical trials	30 million	Pending	Pending

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_programme_in_the_United_Kingdom#Vaccines_on_order

Strictly speaking, the EU has ordered more of every vaccine. They have to, with much more people to inject. I’ve no idea how the guy who wrote the article calculated relative orders. Might just be where it sits in the ranking compared to other vaccines?

Feck knows.

30m seems like a decent quantity for the UK anyway.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I can't see what the EU has ordered, but the UK has ordered 30 million, so is hardly left out. Hopefully everyone will get theirs on schedule, if approved of course.

Vaccine	Progress	Doses ordered	Approval	Deployment
Pfizer–BioNTech	phase III clinical trials	40 million	2 December 2020	8 December 2020
Oxford–AstraZeneca	phase III clinical trials	100 million	30 December 2020[12]	4 January 2021[13]
Moderna	phase III clinical trials	17 million[10]	8 January 2021[10]	Pending
Novavax	phase III clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
Valneva	phase I/II clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
GSK/Sanofi Pasteur	phase I/II clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
Janssen	phase III clinical trials	30 million	Pending	Pending

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_programme_in_the_United_Kingdom#Vaccines_on_order

The UK has 30 million with an option for another 22 million signed a couple of months before the EU hit their deal. I'm not sure if that will put us further along in the queue or not. The UK has roughly 0.78 J&J vaccines per inhabitant whilst the EU a little under 1.

The article is certainly more than a little biased in tone.

 

[utdalltheway]

Apparently they’ve a shareholder’s meeting tomorrow afternoon (US time?) so we might hear some provisional results after that.

Probably getting ahead of myself here but what would be a bad result vs a good result (is there an efficacy break point number?) with the J&J vaccine - whether it’s going to seek approval or not?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Probably getting ahead of myself here but what would be a bad result vs a good result (is there an efficacy break point number?) with the J&J vaccine - whether it’s going to seek approval or not?

They actually only need 50% efficacy for approval. The annual flu jab is only 40-60% efficacious, for example.

The other vaccines have raised expectations, though. So anything less than, say, 70% will be a little disappointing. The devil will be in the detail, mind you. I would be happier with 60% efficacy in a well designed trial - with participants that reflect the people who will get the jab - than 70% efficacy in a cohort of people who are much younger than the majority of punters getting injected over the next few months (yes, I’m looking at you, AZ).

Plus the fact you only need a single jab means a slightly lower efficacy than vaccines which need multiple jabs might be acceptable.

 

[utdalltheway]

thanks Pog. Fingers crossed then for the J&J test results.

 

[Crackers]

I can't see what the EU has ordered, but the UK has ordered 30 million, so is hardly left out. Hopefully everyone will get theirs on schedule, if approved of course.

Vaccine	Progress	Doses ordered	Approval	Deployment
Pfizer–BioNTech	phase III clinical trials	40 million	2 December 2020	8 December 2020
Oxford–AstraZeneca	phase III clinical trials	100 million	30 December 2020[12]	4 January 2021[13]
Moderna	phase III clinical trials	17 million[10]	8 January 2021[10]	Pending
Novavax	phase III clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
Valneva	phase I/II clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
GSK/Sanofi Pasteur	phase I/II clinical trials	60 million	Pending	Pending
Janssen	phase III clinical trials	30 million	Pending	Pending

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_programme_in_the_United_Kingdom#Vaccines_on_order

Thanks, this is a good post.

 

[jojojo]

Sanofi (whose own vaccine is delayed until year end) is planning to manufacture vaccines for Pfizer.

https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...biontech-vaccine-doses-ceo-says-idUSP6N2JG00F

100m doses by "year end" they say, so not a massive boost right now, but another indication that manufacturing sites are being modified to produce these new mRNA low temperature vaccines.

The interview they're talking about is at:
https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/pa...accin-pfizer-d-ici-la-fin-de-l-annee-20210126
but it's behind a paywall...

 

[JPRouve]

Sanofi (whose own vaccine is delayed until year end) is planning to manufacture vaccines for Pfizer.

https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...biontech-vaccine-doses-ceo-says-idUSP6N2JG00F

100m doses by "year end" they say, so not a massive boost right now, but another indication that manufacturing sites are being modified to produce these new mRNA low temperature vaccines.

The interview they're talking about is at:
https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/pa...accin-pfizer-d-ici-la-fin-de-l-annee-20210126
but it's behind a paywall...

They found an agreement with Pfizer? Apparently the issue was about "knowledge transfer" between Sanofi and Pfizer.

 

[christy87]

Sanofi (whose own vaccine is delayed until year end) is planning to manufacture vaccines for Pfizer.

https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...biontech-vaccine-doses-ceo-says-idUSP6N2JG00F

100m doses by "year end" they say, so not a massive boost right now, but another indication that manufacturing sites are being modified to produce these new mRNA low temperature vaccines.

The interview they're talking about is at:
https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/pa...accin-pfizer-d-ici-la-fin-de-l-annee-20210126
but it's behind a paywall...

I was wondering this would some of the big pharma that's vaccine failed make some of the successful ones, seeing as moderna aren't enforcing there patient during the pandemic.

 

[sun_tzu]

871000 out of a population of 67.8 million in England

So 98.7% of the population live within half an hour of a vaccination site... I don't have the stats for other countries but I'm gonna guess thats pretty good

92% within an hour on public transport... again don't have the international comparison stats but i suspect that's pretty good as well

Given all the things that have gone wrong from from a public policy perspective over covid the vaccine roll out is probably one of the better areas I think

The fact that the report says only 336k people out if the 5.5 million who don't have a car or around 6% means that 94% of that 5.5m will be able to drive to get a vaccine within an hour (assuming car is as fast as public transport... in reality probably its faster and even more can get there within an hour)

So 336,000 people (max) who don't have a car and are more than an hour from a vaccine centre

Basically we now have 99.5% of the population who have access via their car or public transport to a vaccine centre within an hour (there is none of the half hour driving non coverage spots that's more than another half hours drive away)

How many of the 336k people could get a lift from a relative in their support bubble or lend a car off a neighbour... I dunno not all 336k but probably not 0 either... also how many of that 336k are disabled or in care homes and will be getting the vaccine ... we could be almost up to 99.9% coverage there... plus there are more vaccine centres opening

Either way 99.5% seems pretty good access... of course 100% would be better but it does seem a really strange thing to pick fault with given how many huge mistakes have been made

 

[One Night Only]

871000 out of a population of 67.8 million in England

So 98.7% of the population live within half an hour of a vaccination site... I don't have the stats for other countries but I'm gonna guess thats pretty good

92% within an hour on public transport... again don't have the international comparison stats but i suspect that's pretty good as well

I don't understand the point of that tbh, I'd guess anyone who lives somewhere without public transport would need to drive anyway?

 

[Pexbo]

871000 out of a population of 67.8 million in England

So 98.7% of the population live within half an hour of a vaccination site... I don't have the stats for other countries but I'm gonna guess thats pretty good

92% within an hour on public transport... again don't have the international comparison stats but i suspect that's pretty good as well

Given all the things that have gone wrong from from a public policy perspective over covid the vaccine roll out is probably one of the better areas I think

The fact that the report says only 336k people out if the 5.5 million who don't have a car or around 6% means that 94% of that 5.5m will be able to drive to get a vaccine within an hour (assuming car is as fast as public transport... in reality probably its faster and even more can get there within an hour)

So 336,000 people (max) who don't have a car and are more than an hour from a vaccine centre

Basically we now have 99.5% of the population who have access via their car or public transport to a vaccine centre within an hour (there is none of the half hour driving non coverage spots that's more than another half hours drive away)

How many of the 336k people could get a lift from a relative in their support bubble or lend a car off a neighbour... I dunno not all 336k but probably not 0 either... also how many of that 336k are disabled or in care homes and will be getting the vaccine ... we could be almost up to 99.9% coverage there... plus there are more vaccine centres opening

Either way 99.5% seems pretty good access... of course 100% would be better but it does seem a really strange thing to pick fault with given how many huge mistakes have been made

The UK has a 67.7m population, England has population of 55.5m.

 

[Penna]

I've booked an appointment with a consultant neurologist next week to discuss having the vaccine when you have a history of autoimmune disease. My real intention is to ask for something in writing if he confirms (as I expect him to do) that it's contraindicated for me.

I'll update on what he says, in case there are other people here with similar concerns. It's very easy to get to see someone privately here, you don't have to go through your GP and it's not very expensive.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I've booked an appointment with a consultant neurologist next week to discuss having the vaccine when you have a history of autoimmune disease. My real intention is to ask for something in writing if he confirms (as I expect him to do) that it's contraindicated for me.

I'll update on what he says, in case there are other people here with similar concerns. It's very easy to get to see someone privately here, you don't have to go through your GP and it's not very expensive.

None of the currently approved vaccines are contraindicated in autoimmune illnesses. The only contraindication is “hypersensitivity to the active substance” or any of the excipients”

They do have some additional guidance re “Immunocompromised individuals “ which basically says there’s a lack of data and it might not work as well but there are no particular safety concerns and they should still be vaccinated as they’re at higher risk from covid.

You can read the Pfizer vaccine labelling here. AZ info hopefully published soon. Should be on the MHRA website somewhere now.

 

[711]

I've booked an appointment with a consultant neurologist next week to discuss having the vaccine when you have a history of autoimmune disease. My real intention is to ask for something in writing if he confirms (as I expect him to do) that it's contraindicated for me.

I'll update on what he says, in case there are other people here with similar concerns. It's very easy to get to see someone privately here, you don't have to go through your GP and it's not very expensive.

With regard to your previous adverse reaction to vaccination, could this have been due to the egg base used in most vaccine production in the past, rather than an auto-immune issue?

I have some odd, minor, auto-immune problems, but I suspect most people will turn out to have some when it's all better understood.

I'm no expert, sorry if that doesn't make sense.

 

[Penna]

With regard to your previous adverse reaction to vaccination, could this have been due to the egg base used in most vaccine production in the past, rather than an auto-immune issue?

I have some odd, minor, auto-immune problems, but I suspect most people will turn out to have some when it's all better understood.

I'm no expert, sorry if that doesn't make sense.

I'm not allergic to eggs (I don't have any food allergies), so I don't think it was that. What happened was basically an episode with MS-like symptoms, and it took me a couple of months to be able to walk properly again (and I was only in my 30s at the time).

The neurologist at the time wouldn't say conclusively if it was the vaccines that had been the issue, but as my symptoms started 3 days after receiving two vaccinations, I think it's pretty clear that it was. I haven't had the courage to test out that hypothesis.

None of the currently approved vaccines are contraindicated in autoimmune illnesses. The only contraindication is “hypersensitivity to the active substance” or any of the excipients”

They do have some additional guidance re “Immunocompromised individuals “ which basically says there’s a lack of data and it might not work as well but there are no particular safety concerns and they should still be vaccinated as they’re at higher risk from covid.

You can read the Pfizer vaccine labelling here. AZ info hopefully published soon. Should be on the MHRA website somewhere now.

Thank you Pogue, I keep feeling hopeful and then feeling dejected again. I asked a rheumatologist via a third party last week, and he said because I'd had a serious reaction to a vaccine in the past, the Covid vaccine would be contraindicated. I'm not immunocompromised of course - the opposite, in effect!

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I'm not allergic to eggs (I don't have any food allergies), so I don't think it was that. What happened was basically an episode with MS-like symptoms, and it took me a couple of months to be able to walk properly again (and I was only in my 30s at the time).

The neurologist at the time wouldn't say conclusively if it was the vaccines that had been the issue, but as my symptoms started 3 days after receiving two vaccinations, I think it's pretty clear that it was. I haven't had the courage to test out that hypothesis.

Thank you Pogue, I keep feeling hopeful and then feeling dejected again. I asked a rheumatologist via a third party last week, and he said because I'd had a serious reaction to a vaccine in the past, the Covid vaccine would be contraindicated. I'm not immunocompromised of course - the opposite, in effect!

Can see why you’re being cautious. Sounds like a frightening experience. And demyelination is a recognised (very rare) complication of some vaccines (as I’m sure you know). I’m sure you also know the AZ program was paused because of a serious adverse event involving demyelination. They seemed confident it was unrelated but might be something worth considering if you get a choice of vaccine. Also worth bearing in mind that the technology behind all these new vaccines is quite different to vaccines you received 30 years ago.

 

[711]

I'm not allergic to eggs (I don't have any food allergies), so I don't think it was that. What happened was basically an episode with MS-like symptoms, and it took me a couple of months to be able to walk properly again (and I was only in my 30s at the time).

The neurologist at the time wouldn't say conclusively if it was the vaccines that had been the issue, but as my symptoms started 3 days after receiving two vaccinations, I think it's pretty clear that it was. I haven't had the courage to test out that hypothesis.

That must have been very frightening, I don't blame you for being cautious. I suppose in time more will be known, meanwhile you just have to protect yourself as best you can I suppose. Good job you've got each other really, at least that's a lot better than being on your own. Good luck.

 

[Compton22]

Germany now advising against the AZ vaccine for over 65s

 

[Brwned]

Germany now advising against the AZ vaccine for over 65s

On top of that, the head of immunisation at PHE has now felt obliged to tell people that "There were too few cases in older people in the AstraZeneca trials to observe precise levels of protection in this group".

So we're sure there is a "high level of protection" for people in the long period between dose 1 and dose 2 for Pfizer, even though we have no data on it and so can't make any precise predictions, and we're sure there is a "high level of protection" for older people, even though we don't have enough data on it to make precise predictions. That's a curious way to deal with uncertainty: we're not sure exactly how good it is, but there are some positive signs and we're going to focus on them as our main conclusions, while referring to the negative signs as inconclusive.

 

[11101]

On top of that, the head of immunisation at PHE has now felt obliged to tell people that "There were too few cases in older people in the AstraZeneca trials to observe precise levels of protection in this group".

So we're sure there is a "high level of protection" for people in the long period between dose 1 and dose 2 for Pfizer, even though we have no data on it and so can't make any precise predictions, and we're sure there is a "high level of protection" for older people, even though we don't have enough data on it to make precise predictions. That's a curious way to deal with uncertainty: we're not sure exactly how good it is, but there are some positive signs and we're going to focus on them as our main conclusions, while referring to the negative signs as inconclusive.

Becoming increasingly clear the UK government has chanced this just like they have every other decision in the pandemic to date, and they finally gotten lucky that (so far) this one has worked.

 

[C'est Moi Cantona]

Germany now advising against the AZ vaccine for over 65s

So if the EU decides the same, then surely this takes the heat off AZ, as they can hardly start vaccinating the younger generations before the most vulnerable have been given their vaccinations.

 

[djembatheking]

My 81 year old father in law that has alzheimers had the AZ vaccine last weekend , was it a waste of time and he will have very little protection . If it proves to be will he be given an alternative or is it just tough luck . As I have said before it all seems extremely hit and miss.

 

[F-Red]

On top of that, the head of immunisation at PHE has now felt obliged to tell people that "There were too few cases in older people in the AstraZeneca trials to observe precise levels of protection in this group".

So we're sure there is a "high level of protection" for people in the long period between dose 1 and dose 2 for Pfizer, even though we have no data on it and so can't make any precise predictions, and we're sure there is a "high level of protection" for older people, even though we don't have enough data on it to make precise predictions. That's a curious way to deal with uncertainty: we're not sure exactly how good it is, but there are some positive signs and we're going to focus on them as our main conclusions, while referring to the negative signs as inconclusive.

The exact quote:

“There were too few cases in older people in the AstraZeneca trials to observe precise levels of protection in this group, but data on immune responses were very reassuring.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...ing-immune-responses-in-elderly-idUSL8N2K363E

 

[Brwned]

The exact quote:



https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...ing-immune-responses-in-elderly-idUSL8N2K363E

"Data on immune responses were very reassuring" is another vague and suggestive notion that omits a critical detail unfortunately: the data on immune responses is the same data on immune responses from the phase I/II trial from Novavax, or J&J, i.e. insufficient to determine its viability for approval in the population being discussed.

As Moderna noted in one of their recent papers on durability, "correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans are not yet established". If we knew the immune response was a good proxy for protection then we would have enough data to move forward with e.g. Novavax, because it has already demonstrated a substantially greater immune response than AZ's. We require more than that because the "reassuring" data is inconclusive, while the essential data is so sparse that it doesn't allow us to make meaningful conclusions.

For some reason it is sufficient for them to make those vague statements and people are reassured by them.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

My 81 year old father in law that has alzheimers had the AZ vaccine last weekend , was it a waste of time and he will have very little protection . If it proves to be will he be given an alternative or is it just tough luck . As I have said before it all seems extremely hit and miss.

It’s definitely possible he’s got good protection. The issue here is they’ve done a bad job of proving the vaccine works well in the elderly. Not that we know for sure it doesn’t work. And even with a big drop off above a certain age there’s a good chance it will still work in a proportion (maybe even a majority)

 

[djembatheking]

It’s definitely possible he’s got good protection. The issue here is they’ve done a bad job of proving the vaccine works well in the elderly not that we know for sure it doesn’t work. And even with a big drop off above a certain age there’s a good chance it will still work in a proportion (maybe even a majority)

I hope so , we are still acting as if he hasn`t had the jab and will do for a long while yet just to be safe.

 

[Pexbo]

It’s definitely possible he’s got good protection. The issue here is they’ve done a bad job of proving the vaccine works well in the elderly. Not that we know for sure it doesn’t work. And even with a big drop off above a certain age there’s a good chance it will still work in a proportion (maybe even a majority)

Whats the chances the UK over 65s prove suitable guinea pigs for the Germans and data in a few weeks time from the UK vaccine roll out gives them the confidence they need to approve it?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Whats the chances the UK over 65s prove suitable guinea pigs for the Germans and data in a few weeks time from the UK vaccine roll out gives them the confidence they need to approve it?

Well there’s a bunch of Uk over 65s enrolled in the Phase 3 clinical trial which will give them a definitive answer soon enough. So some of them are literally guinea pigs, yes. The data collected on effectiveness in the general population (assuming they’re collecting that data, they may not be) will likely be less reliable, so might not influence licensing or clinical practice.

 

[Virgil]

It’s definitely possible he’s got good protection. The issue here is they’ve done a bad job of proving the vaccine works well in the elderly. Not that we know for sure it doesn’t work. And even with a big drop off above a certain age there’s a good chance it will still work in a proportion (maybe even a majority)

In this instance I hope to god that it’s the EU, especially Germany, that fecks up.....and before anyone makes two and two equal half a dozen my view has damn all to do with supporting the current government or anything to do with Brexit. It’s simply that I want every vaccine to work. I don’t care who makes it either. The world needs all vaccines to work and work well and be made available at cost to the world.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

In this instance I hope to god that it’s the EU, especially Germany, that fecks up.....and before anyone makes two and two equal half a dozen my view has damn all to do with supporting the current government or anything to do with Brexit. It’s simply that I want every vaccine to work. I don’t care who makes it either. The world needs all vaccines to work and work well and be made available at cost to the world.

I’m with you on that. I’m sure we all are. I don’t think this involves hoping the EU regulators feck up though. If they don’t license it for over 65s it will be because they’re not convinced yet. That can change as new data comes out. Hopefully it will.

I’m really hoping the EMA say it works in over 65s when they approve it in the next few days. That’s the best outcome by far.

 

[redshaw]

So if the EU decides the same, then surely this takes the heat off AZ, as they can hardly start vaccinating the younger generations before the most vulnerable have been given their vaccinations.

Yes it should. The vast majority of deaths and hospitalizations are the over 65s.

UK has 8 million people needing a second dose in the coming months for the vulnerable 4 categories. UK should not be diverting jabs for under 65s in Europe to the cost 75+ year olds at high risk. That would be abhorrent.

First the EU say they'll be banning export of EU made vaccines to third countries which actually breaks deals already made, then they say they'll be looking at what AZ vaccines have left the EU to third countries but find manufacturing within the EU has been the problem that they invested in. They then say, hey you, third country, give us your vaccines now. EU want to break Pfizer deals and ban them from leaving EU boundaries to third countries but demand AZ in the UK, a third country to divert vaccines already taken up.

I'm surprised a European bloc of 27 with a huge manufacturing exporter like Germany is not well up and running churning out vaccines across Europe ready to be injected regardless of later approvals or not.

 

[Virgil]

I’m with you on that. I’m sure we all are. I don’t think this involves hoping the EU regulators feck up though. If they don’t license it for over 65s it will be because they’re not convinced yet. That can change as new data comes out. Hopefully it will.

I’m really hoping the EMA say it works in over 65s when they approve it in the next few days. That’s the best outcome by far.

Yes my comment about Germany was over the top but in my defence there appears to be an undercurrent on this board almost willing the U.K. to fail again simply so they can beat the government over the head with something else. The roll out of successful vaccines is too important for that.

 

[NinjaFletch]

I’m with you on that. I’m sure we all are. I don’t think this involves hoping the EU regulators feck up though. If they don’t license it for over 65s it will be because they’re not convinced yet. That can change as new data comes out. Hopefully it will.

I’m really hoping the EMA say it works in over 65s when they approve it in the next few days. That’s the best outcome by far.

From an ethical standpoint where are we with this?

It seems the two schools of thought are either:
A) The UK: we don't know it doesn't work, so we might as well assume it does and inject.
B) Germany: we don't know that it works, so we want to wait for more information.

As far as I'm aware, nobody is doubting the safety of the vaccine in any age group (except from possibly very, very old people). In an ideal situation, I feel both regulatory bodies would want better data, but in what is demonstrably an emergency situation what is the justification for waiting to see? If it ultimately turns out that the protection it offers in 65+ patients is not great, then what's stopping from then immunising again with a vaccine that has been more successful? And if it does turn out that the AZ vaccine is pretty good in 65+ patients aren't we all better off for having vaccinated them now?

 

[do.ob]

So if the EU decides the same, then surely this takes the heat off AZ, as they can hardly start vaccinating the younger generations before the most vulnerable have been given their vaccinations.

At the very least they could use it for healthcare workers, who are also a big priority. I don't think there exists a scenario where a goverment would just leave a working vaccine on the table.

From an ethical standpoint where are we with this?

It seems the two schools of thought are either:
A) The UK: we don't know it doesn't work, so we might as well assume it does and inject.
B) Germany: we don't know that it works, so we want to wait for more information.

As far as I'm aware, nobody is doubting the safety of the vaccine in any age group (except from possibly very, very old people). In an ideal situation, I feel both regulatory bodies would want better data, but in what is demonstrably an emergency situation what is the justification for waiting to see? If it ultimately turns out that the protection it offers in 65+ patients is not great, then what's stopping from then immunising again with a vaccine that has been more successful? And if it does turn out that the AZ vaccine is pretty good in 65+ patients aren't we all better off for having vaccinated them now?

In that case you have wasted time, logistics and vaccine doeses that could have been used to actually protect (younger) people, e.g. healthcare workers. One could argue that desperate times warrant certain risks, but bottom line to me looks like the UK is taking a gamble, while the EU plays it safe(r).

 

[Tibs]

At this point, even if it is only even 40% effective in over 65s, surely that added level of immunity to reduce severe disease is worth it?

 

[Tibs]

Also, is it known/common for a vaccine to work within a certain age group, and then fall off a cliff for another age group?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

From an ethical standpoint where are we with this?

It seems the two schools of thought are either:
A) The UK: we don't know it doesn't work, so we might as well assume it does and inject.
B) Germany: we don't know that it works, so we want to wait for more information.

As far as I'm aware, nobody is doubting the safety of the vaccine in any age group (except from possibly very, very old people). In an ideal situation, I feel both regulatory bodies would want better data, but in what is demonstrably an emergency situation what is the justification for waiting to see? If it ultimately turns out that the protection it offers in 65+ patients is not great, then what's stopping from then immunising again with a vaccine that has been more successful? And if it does turn out that the AZ vaccine is pretty good in 65+ patients aren't we all better off for having vaccinated them now?

What @do.ob said. Plus the ethics would be very different if this was the only vaccine so elderly people had the choice between this vaccine or no vaccine. Thankfully we’re not in that scenario so can choose to use the range of vaccines in a way that we are most confident will get the best outcome. The rollout in the UK so far has been one size fits all but the more prudent/scientific approach might be different vaccines for different age groups. Likewise the dosing regime. The time interval between jabs should be tailored to the best available evidence from each vaccine.

Obviously you’d want predictable supplies for an evidence driven approach like this. Which is one of the reasons why AZ’s dramatic reduction has thrown them into a tizzy.