By "look behind the good and bad patches to see a fuller picture" you actually mean just speculating about the reasons for good or bad form. As I said before, a) that is literally unknowable so is of limited value and b) the whole point in the thread was about his performance in recent seasons, which can be measured without speculation.
Maybe this thread is getting too long, but if you recall, in the first post you responded to, I said "
De Gea ranked 2nd among goalkeepers in the league last season for shot stopping, which was good." So the idea that I'm suggesting "+11 and -3.3 balances out" is obviously not true. I made it clear it was a good season in summary right at the outset.
But summing up an entire season with one single number at the end is just about the crudest metric possible. Its neccesary up to a point, such as when you're comparing multiple players over multiple seasons, because adding more detail would make comparisons difficult, just from a practical perspective. But if you're trying to get a fuller picture of how one season went and how a player performed, we can easily dig in a little deeper. There's no excuse for sticking to that single metric.
In this case, what De Gea lacked last season was consistency, and that's what we see when we go behind the season total. He was like the striker who bags a hatful in a month and then goes several months where he can't buy a goal. Knowing that a player was inconsistent is an important piece of the jigsaw when it comes to assessing their performances. Inconsistency is a definite weakness in players, particularly among goalkeepers.
De Gea last season was remarkable for his inconsistency. In that regard its exceptional among the seasons I can see. I looked at Loris in 18-19 and Allison in 20-21, along with De Gea in 17-18, who all had roughly the same end of season totals, and the difference was striking.
If you take a 5 game rolling sum of PSxG-GA to assess short term form, last season De Gea's good form peaked at +5.9. Allison Becker in 2020-21 peaked at +2.7. De Gea in 2017-18 peaked at +3.3. Loris in 2018-19 peaked at +3.7. Now look at the worst run of form. De Gea last season worst form was a 5 game rolling score of -2.5. Becker 20-21 was -0.4, Loris 18-19 was -0.4, De Gea 17-18 was -0.8.
Edit: stuck it in a table to make it easier.
Player | Best run of form
(PSxG-GA over 5 games) | Worst run of form
(PSxG-GA over 5 games) |
De Gea 21-22 | +5.9 | -2.5 |
De Gea 17-18 | +3.3 | -0.8 |
Allison 20-21 | +2.7 | -0.4 |
Loris 18-19 | +3.7 | -0.4 |
His ups and downs last season were not the normal ebb and flow of form that all players have over the course of a season. At his peak he was outperforming those other already excellent keepers by almost 1.6X. At his lowest ebb he was conceding goals at a rate of more than 3X. These variances are huge in comparison with himself and others. I don't see how any analysis that ignores all of this or writes it off as normal can be taken seriously.