TITLE RACE / PROMOTION BATTLE
This division is perhaps the tightest of the lot and it shows with just 10 points separating first from 10th. The gap between 2nd and 10th is shorter still (obviously) with just 6 points separating them, so I felt it best to try and look at all 10 teams and talk about their chances. First of all, for the teams involved to have a chance of finishing in the top 6 they need to get results against the other sides in the top 10. Lose them and even with a good run against teams outside the top 10 it will be tough. Here is the top 10 mini league:
Now the teams:
Leeds United - Against the other sides in the top 10 they have fared very well, with the losses in general coming from big tactical risks that didn't pay off (both losses at home - 4-1 to Doncaster Rovers and 3-0 to Middlesbrough). Leeds have been predicted by some to finish first, but they have been very inconsistent - never winning more than two games on the bounce - and though they have been in the top 2 for most of the season, have rarely been that far ahead of the rest of the pack. The biggest result for Leeds this season would have been the 3-1 victory over Millwall, but losing 4-1 to Doncaster Rovers the game after could have meant Leeds going back into second if they hadn't drawn to Blackpool. If they want to finish first they need to take games by the scruff of the neck. The two games this week against Blackpool and Cardiff City will be huge, and could either see Leeds extend their lead at the top of the table, or fall to second or worse. The Cup and Shield runs have been bad, being knocked out of the second round in both competitions.
Millwall - They have an excellent record against the other sides in the top 10 and have done very well in both the Cup and Shield, with them playing in the fourth round of the Shield on Tuesday against Tranmere Rovers - a game that they're expected to win - and only just being knocked out in the third round of the Cup to Nottingham Forest on penalties. For most of the season they have been fighting for the title with Leeds, and they will have been disappointed to lose 3-1 at home to them, but since then they have lost their way a bit in the league. Quite a few times Leeds has dropped points since then but instead of capitalising on that, Millwall have also dropped points in their own games too as can be seen in the table below:
Manager WR will be disappointed that they've not done well in the last few games, but for me they'll be challenging for the title right until the final game.
Ipswich Town - In Scrumpet's world there is no such thing as a draw. If there were draws in his world, then surely Ipswich would be at the top of the table by now. Instead, they've got the most defeats out of any teams in the top 13 of the table, yet are currently third thanks to their 11 wins which is the joint most in Division 2 along with Leeds United. They have had decent runs in both the Cup and Shield, being knocked out in the fourth and third round respectively. They have a decent record against the other teams in the top 10, but have lost more than they have won. James Forrest, an 85 rated winger is their star man, contributing 15 assists in the league and 17 in all competitions and like Leeds with Gaitan, it would be interesting to see where they would be without their star player. Ipswich have been in the top half of the table for most of the season and have a good chance of at least finishing in the playoffs. I would be surprised if they didn't finish in the top 6 but anything could happen in the second half of the season.
Middlesbrough - Whenever Middlesbrough lose, manager Annihilate Now! avoids posting in the SM thread which is why we've barely seen him since bragging about beating Leeds as they then lost the following two games against Blackpool and Bristol City. They are a good side, and have impressed me in the league but their results against other teams in the top 10 aren't that great, and though I think they will finish in the top 6, if they want to push on they will need to improve their results against the other teams. In the Cup and Shield they haven't done great, but in the rounds they were knocked out they were playing Manchester City and Chelsea, a tough game for any side. In Eljero Elia they have a fantastic player and he will be an important part of their efforts in the remainder of the season.
Cardiff City - Second bottom of the top 10 mini-league, their great record against teams outside the top 10 (6 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats) is a big reason why they are so high. Their position in the league is very impressive given the strength of their squad compared to others, but if they want to sat where they are and perhaps go higher, I feel they need to make some transfers and I'm sure that is what they will do over the coming days. They have done very well to make it to the fourth round of both the Cup and Shield, and their large squad will have played a part in that. They lost to Chelsea in the Cup and people will probably expect them to lose to Chelsea in the Shield too, but whatever happens they have done brilliantly and it will be interesting to see how they do in the remainder of the season.
Crystal Palace - Their record against the other teams in the top 10 is very good and they will be pleased with a draw against 2nd placed side Millwall. They do have a strong squad, but had a poor run in both the Cup and Shield. Like Cardiff and some other sides they haven't swapped all of their players yet so could still do some transfers, though apart from highly rated talents Wilfried Zaha and Nathaniel Clyne, they don't have much to use in exchange. It is hard to say how well this side could do in the rest of the season but a 0-0 draw against Millwall, 0-0 draw against Leeds United and a 2-2 draw against Middlesbrough are all impressive results and they are a tough side to play against.
Hull City - Hull have got a decent record against the other sides in the top 10, but 5 draws is too many and 8 draws overall isn't ideal. That said they do have a very good defensive record and have no problems scoring but if they want to finish in the top 6 they will need to turn some of those draws into wins in the second half of the season. They've done well in the Cup and Shield, being knocked out in the third round of the Cup and facing Manchester City away in the fourth round of the Shield on Tuesday. Thursday's game against Crystal Palace at home will be a big one and a win will see them overtake Palace into the playoff spots.
Blackpool - They have got a strong squad, but a very thin one too. Their stadium is one of the smallest in the league and the players they have command high wages so financially they can't be doing that well which will make any business in the next few weeks unlikely. Another team who have been knocked out of the Cup and Shield early, their record in the league is pretty good - particularly against the top 10 sides. They need to do better against teams outside the top 10 though but they should do well. If their squad has any serious injuries - particularly to any of their star players - it could play havoc in their plans for promotion.
Doncaster Rovers - Manager Melq has done reasonably well in the transfer market, though most of their first teamers are in their 30s. They were knocked out in the second round of the Cup but are still in the Shield and their league form is good, losing just twice in their last 10 games. They have had some impressive results too, beating Leeds United 4-1 probably being one of the highlights. How they will do in the remainder of the season is hard to say, it's only just recently that they have been in the top 10 and if they want to make any transfers they will need to wait until late June or early July to do them which is a disadvantage compared to the other sides. They face three other sides from the top 10 in their next six matches, and if they want to make a push into the playoffs they will need to do well in those games.
Nottingham Forest - Manager RedSky will be disappointed with how things have gone so far, but with the number and severity of the injuries they have had things could be worse. They have done very well in the Cup and Shield, being knocked out of the Shield in the third round to Arsenal and are playing Preston North End in the quarter finals of the Cup on the 29th, but they will have wanted to do better in the league. In recent weeks, they have found a formation and tactics that have suited them, winning three league games in a row until their shock 4-1 loss to Cardiff City at home. I hope they do finish in the top 6, but their record against the other top 10 sides is dismal, and if they want to stand any chance of finishing in the top 6 they will need to improve this record or they won't stand a chance.
RELEGATION BATTLE
In terms of the relegation battle there are five sides involved, though with 15th placed Burnley currently unmanaged they could be dragged into the relegation battle too. Strangely all of the teams involved in the relegation battle (Portsmouth, Leicester City, Brighton and Hove Albion and Peterborough United) have had great runs in at least one competition, with Leicester City being in the fourth round of the Shield and Brighton and Hove Albion and Peterborough United being in the quarter final of the Cup but they will all need to do much better in the league in the second half of the season if they want to stand any chance of survival.
BRIEF THOUGHTS ON OTHER SIDES
Birmingham City - They have done brilliantly in both the Shield and Cup, playing in the fourth round of the Shield on Tuesday and in the quarter finals of the Cup, though they will have a tough side in Chelsea to play. Whatever happens it is a great achievement. Their record against sides outside of the top 10 is good, but their record against sides in the top 10 is horrendous drawing 3 and losing 7 so for that reason I can't see them making a push for the promotion places.
Derby County - Has the second best defence in the league but that means little as they are finding it difficult to score too, with the worst goals for record in the league apart from bottom placed Portsmouth. They've done well in both the Cup and Shield (knocked out in the third round of the Shield, into the quarter finals of the Cup) but in the league they have only scored more than 2 goals in one game (3-1 away win over Ipswich). If they want to push for promotion they need to start scoring more or they'll probably finish in midtable.
Coventry City - A bad run in both the Shield and Cup, they only have the league to play for. Just two wins in their last six matches isn't great, and the next game against Nottingham Forest is another tough tie, especially as they will be missing three players due to injury and another due to suspension. Gut feeling is they will not be in serious danger of relegation but at the same time they won't be in the promotion battle either. In their next 10 matches they face seven teams currently in the top 10 so it will be tough but I can see them getting the 16 or so points required in their remaining matches.
Bristol City - They've got one of the best starting 11s in the league, and have got some brilliant results including a 2-1 win over Middlesbrough, a 3-0 win over Millwall, a 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest, a 1-1 draw against Leeds United and a 4-1 win over Blackpool but they don't seem to be doing too well in the league and it is their results against sides outside the top 10 that seem to let them down. How they will do in the remainder of the season is hard to say. Despite having one of the best starting 11s, their squad doesn't have much quality outside those 11 and if they have injuries they could be in trouble. I can't see them being relegated but if they want to push higher they need to improve.
CASH STRAPPED
While Division 2 is the most competitive division of the lot, it is also the one with most clubs in financial turmoil. A lot of clubs will be quiet when the transfer bans are lifted, with a few needing to sell their best players to get out of debt before making any other transfers if needed. There will be a few clubs who won't be too concerned about the debt they're in and will not be selling their players so they can try and make the push for the automatic/play-off places, but it will be risky.
PLAYER OF THE SEASON
Again, the following is mainly Trionz work but I agree with what he says. Hopefully there will be some sort of nomination thing as the following is just the opinion of 2 people rather than the 60 odd teams in the league. Leite Adriano (7 goals and 6 assists in 13 appearances), Nicolás Gaitan (4 goals and 15 assists in 19 appearances), Lorik Cana (10 goals and 6 assists in 14 appearances), James Forrest (6 goals and 17 assists in 21 appearances) and Germán Denis (3 goals and 10 assists in 18 appearances) have all had great seasons so far but in our opinion the player of the season so far is Eljero Elia (7 goals and 10 assists in 18 appearances).
