That's a fake video for a commercial from over 10 years ago.Yep. They're not totally crackers down there much
The Hurricane Thread | Hurricane Rafael
- Thread starter Florida Man
- Start date
Who are you referring to? If this is for people who live in the Keys, I can understand, but if this message is for all Floridians, then it's extremely ignorant. You can't just evacuate 5-7 million people with only two major interstate highways that go north. People are going to be stuck on the highways like ducks in water with no access to food, gas, shelter, and emergency vehicles. I'd personally take my concrete walls with all my supplies over being trapped on the highway. Another thing to understand is that a lot of these same people survived 2004 where Florida was hit by four hurricanes in a month.
Thanks man
Why are meteorologists expecting ti to strengthen then??
I don't mean to poop on these people, because they are trying their best. But even the guy who posted that 20 hours ago said "No longer any spread or uncertainty about landfall of hurricane" yet here we are 20 hours later and all the models have changed to it now potentially going up the coast, which wasn't even in the outer limit of the model 20 hours ago. They didn't predict for it to come as close to Cuba as it has, and it did. It really urks me when they present these models are being near certainty when they have a long history of not exactly getting it right.
Nah, I wasn't referring to the whole state, just those in areas where it's very highly likely that you're going to need to end up being rescued.
Ok, I gotcha.
Some of them make a point and insist that the models change every day and that people need to be up to date. That one guy in the videos that @Buchan posts is a good example.
yeah but what I mean is your logic seems clear and simple. We have two given facts now : It's currently a cat 3 and the remaining water is shallow. Surely this shouldn't go past them now.
It's one thing to predict and get your prediction wrong, it's another to fail to do simple logic, no? Is there something you might be missing or are they that blinded with their models which are that immutable?!
A lot really depends what it does between Cuba and Florida, what they are predicting it is going to do is flip flopping around. If anyone is saying they know with any kind of confidence what it is going to hit as then they are bit of an idiot. If it goes straight from Cuba to Florida as they predicted 20 hours ago then I doubt it will strengthen, if it goes up the coast like they are predicting now then then it could. But we don't even know what state it is going to be by the time it has left Cuba. It's getting weaker at a fairly rapid pace. It would need to strength massively to reach Cat 5 again.
I'm not an expert or anything, I would never tell anyone not to leave their home or whatever because Joe Bloggs on the internet with his internet PhD is saying it's not going to be as bad as they said.
I think they were predicting it to hit the state as cat 4 in the past couple of days, but anyway. I get your point. You also answered my other post. Thanks
I guess I am just questioning what is the worth of models that 20 hours later project something that wasn't even in the unlikely scenarios 20 hours earlier?
Latest projection
Totally missing the east cost now.
What if it doesnt turn and totally misses FL? Does it slow down in the gulf, or do they speed in those waters and hit Louisiana/Tx?
Totally missing the east cost now.
What if it doesnt turn and totally misses FL? Does it slow down in the gulf, or do they speed in those waters and hit Louisiana/Tx?
Keep your phone on charge. If you do lose power, you'll be glad of the battery.
Latest projection
Totally missing the east cost now.
What if it doesnt turn and totally misses FL? Does it slow down in the gulf, or do they speed in those waters and hit Louisiana/Tx?
It won't slow down, but it will definitely retain or increase its strength as long as its over water.
So its definitely hitting somewhere.. If it somehow misses FL, they'll start evacuating in other states?
No good outcome in that case.
If it misses FL then its more than likely going to be in the gulf and wind up hitting Louisiana, Texas, or Mississippi. But that's unlikely imo, as the likeliest path is along the west coast of FL and up to the FL panhandle.
Tornado watch in the following areas
Will do. Btw anyone in Florida the national helpline is this. 1800 342-3557
looks like it will miss the East Coast completely.
As you initially said, "they are trying their best" predicting weather is not an exact science, it's impossible for it to be exact and I sincerely doubt there will ever be a time where it is exact either. I studied meteorology for 3 years when I was taking my skippers tickets, it was an immensely enjoyable part of my training but the one thing you quickly learn is that it is not an exact science. There are so many variables that have to be taken in to factor and all of them can change very quickly. Nowadays all the data is shoved in to super computers who run seriously complicated algorithms that then give their best prediction. Just look at Harvey a couple of weeks ago, they predicted that nearly 100% accurately, right down to the amount of rainfall too.
All indications showed Irma heading straight for Florida, and they were 100% right to evacuate as if it had hit as predicted (and it still could change again) then millions of lives would have been affected and the possibility of thousands being lost, maybe more. What upsets me now is the scientists are being questioned and people are saying they should have stayed at home and they wont listen to them in future, that is extremely dangerous and very stupid.
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All the time it is over warm water the chances are it could strengthen as that's what feeds the storm. I think this one is definitely going to increase to a 4 again, just hopefully not for very long, although to be honest, there isn't a great difference between 3,4 and 5. Any hurricane is deadly, but once they go over a 2 then there's little that can handle taking the full force of the impact head on.
Yes, but based on what we have seen, it requires the vast majority of its area to be over warm water for it to gain/maintain. A little under half is over Cuba and it's weakening rapidly. Depending on how it travels from Cuba to Florida, there is even the potential that it will be starting to hit Florida as the tail is leaving Cuba. If it went direct from Cuba to Florida it would have to become stronger at a rate that it was in the ideal conditions of the Atlantic for it to go up even 1 category in the amount of time it would have with the vast majority of it over sea. If it skims the coast in a way like it has done in Cuba, then again on the evidence of Cuba, that isn't enough for it to strengthen. It would just weaken at a slower rate than a direct hit.
You are correct, but the main difference with this storm is the sheer size of it. The size is what has thrown out the best guess predictions from all the experts and their computers. As I said, the distinction of the category it is given is almost irrelevant, it only seems to be giving Trump a giant hard on and really people should be ignoring that and concentrating on the fact that a giant hurricane is on its way. It's odd really as if you are talking tornados (which could be formed from this) then size and category definitely matters a lot more, but not so much with hurricanes. Also, the water displacement with a hurricane is a huge factor as shown with Harvey. Feck, I'm not an expert, far from it, and I wish I had chosen that path, but from my understanding I can see why this storm has so many people worried.
There's no out. Check the airports check the highways. Check the storm. We are fecked. I have children.
My heart goes out to you mate and I will be hoping this bitch veers off course again and makes landfall somewhere remote. Please just get yourself and your family safe and make sure you have all the necessities to keep you all alive if the worst happens. You have plenty of time to get somewhere safe and secure, hopefully you will be fine, but my thoughts (and I'm sure everyone else's here) will be with you and everyone else who may get caught up in this monsters path.
Headed right for my area in Middle Georgia, hopefully will be severely weakened by then. Governor has issued SOE for the southern half of the state but no evacuation order save a few deep southern counties. Robins AFB hasn't issued an evac order yet.
Grab your papers/passport/cheque etc and put it in a plastic bag and in a backpack.
Ps: trump is always quick to tweet yet nothing on this?
Ps: trump is always quick to tweet yet nothing on this?
He has been tweeting about the hurricane.
The bad thing about these newer projections is a large portion will stay out over the water and the West coast of Florida will take the brunt of the storm on the right side without it weakening as quickly as it normally would.
Tampa looks to be in bother.
The Tropical Weather sub on reddit is showing some live feed from web cams at Southernmost Point and other beach areas. The sea's already extremely rough, coming right up over the pavements.
And there are still one or two people standing there like lemons looking at it all.
And there are still one or two people standing there like lemons looking at it all.
Stay safe @Billy Blaggs and the other people living in Florida.
You can store valuables including paperwork in your dishwasher. Just don't run the fecker by mistake.
cheers mate.
It's not looking so great now that it seems to be moving away from Cuba this early.
Like I said mate, this fecker is so big it really is going against all projections. It's making the professionals look bad and the idiots on social media are spreading false and extremely dangerous bullshit by belittling and undermining the work being done to predict its path. They just have to look at Harvey where the predictions were pretty much absolutely spot on. Trust the science, make plans for the worst and everything will hopefully be fine. Ignore the predictions at your peril, but don't encourage others to do the same. It's really so sad and the very worst side to social media and the internet.
Yeah I'm watching CNN's live stream on it and someone is spamming fake in the comments. Really not helpful.Like I said mate, this fecker is so big it really is going against all projections. It's making the professionals look bad and the idiots on social media are spreading false and extremely dangerous bullshit by belittling and undermining the work being done to predict its path. They just have to look at Harvey where the predictions were pretty much absolutely spot on. Trust the science, make plans for the worst and everything will hopefully be fine. Ignore the predictions at your peril, but don't encourage others to do the same. It's really so sad and the very worst side to social media and the internet.
Moved out of my apartment. It's just outside evacuation zone E but did not want to stay alone. Currently at somebody's house near Wesley Chapel a little north of Tampa. They are fully prepared so hopefully we survive this!
Sending best wishes your way mate, hopefully you will be fine. Take care, and report back when it's all over.
Keep safe buddy.