The Hurricane Thread | Hurricane Rafael

So far we are "lucky", a direct hit from a hurricane on Miami or another city and the damage would be astronomical, Sandy changed the direction from hitting the Delaware river which would create a surge up to 22 feet and would be devastating Philadelphia and any town and houses near to the river including mine, soon or later our "luck" is gone.
 


Saw this tweet comparing the size of Hurricane Andrew from 1992 with Irma.

:eek:


Although Irma is twice the size, I think Andrew was more intense. It also made a direct hit on Miami whereas Irma will probably miss Miami and hit the western coast.
 
Although Irma is twice the size, I think Andrew was more intense. It also made a direct hit on Miami whereas Irma will probably miss Miami and hit the western coast.

Is that scientifically possible?
 
I have a friend in St. Pete who evacuated yesterday. Said 95 was a parking lot all the way up to Savannah.
 
I have a friend in St. Pete who evacuated yesterday. Said 95 was a parking lot all the way up to Savannah.
I have friends in Palm Beach who are heading north to Philadelphia- they have family here but if was me I wouldn't move that far because after the storm we have the losers ready to break in people's houses. I believe the national guard should use deadly force as a warning in the future.
 
Although Irma is twice the size, I think Andrew was more intense. It also made a direct hit on Miami whereas Irma will probably miss Miami and hit the western coast.
Irma has the highest sustained windspeeds over a 24-hour period of any Atlantic hurricane in history.
 
Irma has the highest sustained windspeeds over a 24-hour period of any Atlantic hurricane in history.

Its the windspeed at landfall and whether or not it hits a populated area as it makes land that counts. Andrew was a direct hit on Dade county. i was stranded in Miami Beach for days when the causeways flooded. Homestead looked like a Hiroshima nuke went off.
 
Definitely missing Miami? Right?
The keys are in trouble.
 
Its the windspeed at landfall and whether or not it hits a populated area as it makes land that counts. Andrew was a direct hit on Dade county. i was stranded in Miami Beach for days when the causeways flooded. Homestead looked like a Hiroshima nuke went off.
But it wasn't a more intense storm.
 
Its down to a 3 because the eye and the bands immediately around it are over Cuba now. Once it hits water it will almost surely go back to at least a 4.

Nah, I think it will be a Cat 2 or even a Cat 1 by the time it hits Florida. The water between Cuba and Florida is shallower than out in the Atlantic and it won't have very much time where parts of it are not over one or the other. I did say earlier in the thread I thought this might be a case where they've over-hyped it (atleast it's potential impact on the US.) It was always going to have to go over land masses and shallower water before it hit the US.
 
Nah, I think it will be a Cat 2 or even a Cat 1 by the time it hits Florida. The water between Cuba and Florida is shallower than out in the Atlantic I did say earlier in the thread I thought this might be a case where they've over-hyped it (atleast it's potential impact on the US.) It was always going to have to go over land masses and shallower water before it hit the US.

Its not fully over a land mass now. Its partially over Cuba. Once its no longer partially over Cuba it will be over water again and will strengthen.
 
It' downgraded now to cat. 3 , but not for long

 
I have a friend at Tampa. Seems it will get hit directly now, right? :(
 
I have a friend at Tampa. It seems it will get hit directly now, right? :(

Possible but not particularly likely imo as the eye will almsot certainly make landfall in SW Florida, which would degrade the windspeeds a lot by the time the worst part of it reaches Tampa. The only trouble would be if the mass of the storm somehow stays just off the west coast of FL and slightly in the Gulf of Mexico; strengthens and then hits western FL.
 
Its not fully over a land mass now. Its partially over Cuba. Once its no longer partially over Cuba it will be over water again and will strengthen.

It doesn't need to be fully over a land mass for it to weaken. Providing the energy into the system is less than what it is using up it will continue to become less powerful. It's going to weaken further in the next hours while a decent proportion of it is not under warm water but over Cuba, they also prefer deep warm water specifically, between Cuba and Florida it is far shallower than what it has been feeding off in the Atlantic. It's going to hopefully have very little time back over that water, if it takes a more direct path from Cuba to Florida I honestly think it could end up being on the Cat 1/2 verge by the time it makes land. If it skirts up the side it could maybe regain a bit of power but i'd be amazed if it lands as a Cat 5.

I've just taken a look on Ventusky and it's predicting max sustained winds of around 122km/h as it hits Florida which would make it a Cat 1.
 
It doesn't need to be fully over a land mass for it to weaken. Providing the energy into the system is less than what it is using up it will continue to become less powerful. It's going to weaken further in the next hours while a decent proportion of it is not under warm water but over Cuba, they also prefer deep warm water specifically, between Cuba and Florida it is far shallower than what it has been feeding off in the Atlantic. It's going to hopefully have very little time back over that water, if it takes a more direct path from Cuba to Florida I honestly think it could end up being on the Cat 1/2 verge by the time it makes land. If it skirts up the side it could maybe regain a bit of power but i'd be amazed if it lands as a Cat 5.

I've just taken a look on Ventusky and it's predicting max sustained winds of around 122km/h as it hits Florida which would make it a Cat 1.

That would be a best case scenario. When Andrew hit it was a Cat 5 so a 1 would be welcome given the alternatives.