Glad I stumbled into it earlier, will be a go to for me.
The Hurricane Thread | Hurricane Rafael
- Thread starter Florida Man
- Start date
The only local meteorologist worth following is Denis Phillips. He does a lot of streaming on fb etc as well as ABC Action News.
Where are you located?
Just outside downtown Tampa, Seminole Heights. Not in flood zone at all thankfully.
Great neighborhood, know it well.
The home owners on Bayshore Blvd. can’t be sleeping well tonight.
My sister-in-law and husband evacuated from St Pete Beach this AM, they only got there FrM, they drove back to SC and brought thr weather with them, we got thunderstorms and torrential rain here!
Wise move in all fairness.
The Tampa Bay area hasn’t experienced the potential storm surge anticipated since 1950, long before the manmade islands that mainly consist STPB were built as we know them today.
There was a baby hurricane in the early 80s named Elena which had less storm surge than anticipated but caused a massive headache for those living on the Pinellas county beaches.
It was mandatory to leave where they were, not surprising seeing as there's water on both sides and the whole thing is probably 75-80 yeards wide at most!
Unfortunately there will be plenty of people on the isles who will not view mandatory as something that needs to happen. That area of Florida has been lulled into such complacency as there have been zero direct or indirect hits by a hurricane in decades (indirectly meaning a storm on a path similar to this one, staying offshore but continually pushing water into the bays / barrier islands). The growth of communities on sea walls is primed for a disaster. It may not happen that bad with this hurricane, but it will eventually.
Damn, Valdosta has been issued a hurricane warning for the first time ever.
The eye (what’s left of it) is slated to pass just to the west of us tomorrow night. Haven’t potentially been this close to an eye since Andrew.
The eye (what’s left of it) is slated to pass just to the west of us tomorrow night. Haven’t potentially been this close to an eye since Andrew.
Lower anticipated storm surge in the Tampa Bay area with the most recent update. Good.
Idalia looking to get stronger heading toward land. Could be a Cat 4 landfall. Perfect conditions to vent outflow & protect from vertical shear. Basically nothing to counteract all the warm moisture she’s pulling in going through the gulf.
It isn’t too bad at all here right now. At least in terms of wind and rain. That ridge over Florida not breaking down kept it turning, but it’s going to be awful further north. Looking at the track and forecasted to be Hurricane all the way through Ga.
@calodo2003 Nah, I'm south of Sacramento for another month then back to Tampa.
We are now in a hurricane warning in Savannah. Bizarre with the hurricane in the gulf & it having to traverse a hundred miles to get to us.
The Atlantic is warm & that's what will be supplying the moisture for the storm quickly after landfall.
Full blown Cat 4 now and looks like she’ll make landfall within the next 30-60 mins
Data from the final fly through. 944mb
I think this is from the building that Jim Cantore is also in
It looks like she completed eyeball replacement right as she’s coming into land
And she’s made landfall
Quite concerned about how our live oaks in Savannah will fare with hurricane force winds. There are thousands of oaks with branches overhanging power lines.
Will be quite surprised if we don’t have power outages locally.
Will be quite surprised if we don’t have power outages locally.
Stay safe all Floridian posters.
Forget the power, some of those tree lined streets (Charleston also) are absolutely gorgeous. I know not all are live oaks, but still. Wishing the best for the people and trees!
Indeed -but also: reason no. 147 why I'm happy to not live there. Though extreme weather seems to be more frequent everywhere -I just can't imagine having to worry about the extremes you see down there between weather, critters etc.
Sorry but a random question - typically how accurate is the National Hurricane Center’s 7 day outlook? Not necessarily the direction and timing of current tropical depressions but rather the likelihood of one forming over the 7 day period? Thanks.
Hope all of southeastern Americans are ok!
Hope all of southeastern Americans are ok!
They have a pretty good track record on if a tropical disturbance will become a named storm or not. I do think that they only forecast for intensification three or four days out though iirc.
It’s pretty good, if a little conservative. They don’t take big swings in track and they tend to lag on intensification, but overall it’s pretty good. But 7 days out is very far for much accuracy. I really don’t pay a lot of attention to 7 days out at steering relies on local pressure systems.
The new models like HAFS is specifically designed to improve accuracy 7 days out.
Some good info here:
https://www.weather.gov/media/nws/IHC2023/Presentations/Mehra_HAFS.pdf
Actually @calodo2003 reply is more accurate, 7 days out there is no guidance on path and intensification, actually none until a despression develops. Until then they are called invests.
tree was woke
Thanks all for the responses. I am heading to Bermuda via NYC in the next couple weeks, and noticed all the flights there today were cancelled due to Franklin and so being the anxious muddafuqqa that I am has made me nervous.
Sorry to derail from the far more important hurricane and topic of discussion today. Once again hope all you southeasteners are OK!
Sorry to derail from the far more important hurricane and topic of discussion today. Once again hope all you southeasteners are OK!
Unless something pops and is 5 days out or less, I really wouldn't worry.
Interestingly, the Azores/Bermuda high is a persistent high pressure area that has more impacts on where hurricanes do go, greatly affecting whether hurricanes will turn north early or head in toward Gulf or up the US east coast.
Can’t tell where the bay ends & Bayshore Blvd. begins. Thankfully that area only had a minor surge, the real estate along that road is quite steep…
interesing! Cheers for the responses
I wonder how many times he’s shot that tree by now
None, because he’s a fecking coward. He did call a special session of the stare legislature to draft a bill to ban trees falling though.
Selfishly very glad this is taking an Eastward turn before it really gets to the Triangle. I've got to fly to Pittsburgh to be in a wedding Friday morning, and I really don't want to have to drive up there if flights got cancelled/delayed.