The Biden Presidency

[Iker Quesadillas]

You have a binary choice the day of the election. But the defenses and excuses for Biden that africanspur mentions began a year before the general election. They began before the primaries even started. And, should Biden win the election, the defenses and excuses will continue throughout his second term, and no punishment or repercussions of any kind, electoral, political, judicial, will be 'acceptable.' At a certain point pragmatism just becomes indistinguishable from partisanship.

 

[maniak]

Question for the biden voters, what would he need to do in terms of foreign policy that would make you not vote for him?

 

[WI_Red]

They converge at a certain point.

No they don’t.

You have a binary choice the day of the election. But the defenses and excuses for Biden that africanspur mentions began a year before the general election. They began before the primaries even started. And, should Biden win the election, the defenses and excuses will continue throughout his second term, and no punishment or repercussions of any kind, electoral, political, judicial, will be 'acceptable.' At a certain point pragmatism just becomes indistinguishable from partisanship.

Sure, I guess, but when a choice is binary that will always be the case if both sides are diametrically opposed. This is not the same as unequivocal support though.

I do agree with the first bit and will add that I wish there had been an actual primary. I did not vote for Biden in the NC primary, but it of course meant nothing. He should be consistently questioned and hounded with questions about his stance on Gaza. There is no defense for the US position.

 

[Raoul]

Question for the biden voters, what would he need to do in terms of foreign policy that would make you not vote for him?

Do a u-turn on Ukraine support.

 

[WI_Red]

Question for the biden voters, what would he need to do in terms of foreign policy that would make you not vote for him?

In this election? Not much. Launch nukes, start a war…. That’s about it. The domestic stakes are too high and I will be unashamedly selfish by prioritizing that.

 

[Kaos]

Do a u-turn on Ukraine support.

The Russian campaign is seen as a red line but the unequivocal backing of an increasingly evident genocide in the middle east is seen as palatable for you?

 

[Raoul]

The Russian campaign is seen as a red line but the unequivocal backing of an increasingly evident genocide in the middle east is seen as palatable for you?

Yeah Ukraine is a read line since allowing Russia to take over would result in war in Europe at some point in the near future, which would quickly spread elsewhere given the amount of nuclear powers involved in NATO. That would be as close to WW3 as the world has ever been.

 

[Kaos]

Yeah Ukraine is a read line since allowing Russia to take over would result in war in Europe at some point in the near future, which would quickly spread elsewhere given the amount of nuclear powers involved in NATO. That would be as close to WW3 as the world has ever been.

I mean Putin's Russia is hardly the third reich in terms of military prowess and sophistication. Their Ukrainian adventure has hardly been a cakewalk, and I suspect they'd be the first to privately admit they'd stand absolutely no chance against NATO in an all out war. So I'm not sure I share the same fear that Putin would be so keen to pursue a large regional war even if Western support for Ukraine dries up.

 

[Beachryan]

I mean Putin's Russia is hardly the third reich in terms of military prowess and sophistication. Their Ukrainian adventure has hardly been a cakewalk, and I suspect they'd be the first to privately admit they'd stand absolutely no chance against NATO in an all out war. So I'm not sure I share the same fear that Putin would be so keen to pursue a large regional war even if Western support for Ukraine dries up.

Almost everything I've read or listened to form experts on Putin's Russia say there's a zero-percent chance he stops with Ukraine if he wins. Even moreso given the demographic disaster Russia is facing. He's utterly delusional, surrounded himself by yes-men and has 1,000s of nukes. And has a die-hard belief that he's born to reunite all of true Russia together again. It's not great.

 

[Beachryan]

Oh that’s strange. It wasn’t really any breaking news. It was a reporter saying pointing out it was American weapons given by Biden that killed that aid workers.

When you say given by Biden, I wonder what that means. If you mean delivered as part of common US practice before the current conflict escalation, I feel like that's a very different thing than if the US sent over the arms since the massacres began.

I think people like myself that initially defended Biden's support of Israel - particularly back in October/November - should not be judged with the amazing clarity of hindsight. Back then if I'd had any idea Netanyahu would have gone this absolutely insane and unhinged then of course I wouldn't have felt the same way.

 

[Raoul]

I mean Putin's Russia is hardly the third reich in terms of military prowess and sophistication. Their Ukrainian adventure has hardly been a cakewalk, and I suspect they'd be the first to privately admit they'd stand absolutely no chance against NATO in an all out war. So I'm not sure I share the same fear that Putin would be so keen to pursue a large regional war even if Western support for Ukraine dries up.

The third reich comparison is generally useless in the present (unless of course its a meme). He's a totalitarian dictator with nukes and is using neo-imperialist conquest as a device to preserve his own regime (and his own life), and is hoping it will build his legacy after he's gone. That is bad news for Europe and the Baltics, and his push into Ukraine, Georgia and other places has reinforced this. Not to mention his attempt at influencing democratic elections in Europe and the US. Therefore, he must be stopped in Ukraine or else there's a good chance NATO and Russia will at some point go to war.

 

[Morty_]

How are people still giving Putin the benefit of the doubt at this point?

 

[Raoul]

How are people still giving Putin the benefit of the doubt at this point?

Anti-US sentiment. Anyone who exhibits it should be given the benefit of the doubt. Iran is another.

 

[berbatrick]

When you say given by Biden, I wonder what that means. If you mean delivered as part of common US practice before the current conflict escalation, I feel like that's a very different thing than if the US sent over the arms since the massacres began.

It's hardly likely, given the rate of fire from Israel, that they're holding on to any older stock. They've been replenished many times over by the US. These replenishments are done after the US State Dept certifies that the recipient is not violating human rights law, which they did most recently this week.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/state-department-israel-international-law/

I think people like myself that initially defended Biden's support of Israel - particularly back in October/November - should not be judged with the amazing clarity of hindsight. Back then if I'd had any idea Netanyahu would have gone this absolutely insane and unhinged then of course I wouldn't have felt the same way.

This is all from October.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says he has ordered a “complete siege” of the Gaza Strip, as Israel fights the Hamas terror group. “I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed,” Gallant says following an assessment at the IDF Southern Command in Beersheba.

Israel's president Isaac Herzog claimed in a press conference that there are no innocent civilians in Gaza, while thousands of Palestinians struggled to flee northern Gaza after Israel's military told some 1.1 million of them to evacuate south ahead of an anticipated military operation

US President Joe Biden on Wednesday said the Hamas terrorists “gotta learn how to shoot straight”, a day after a blast at a hospital in Gaza killed hundreds.

I don't think it's hindsight to know that Israel would behave like they've always behaved, or did what they said they were going to do, or that Biden would give them the enthusiastic support he has been giving them since the 70s.

e - also October

President Joe Biden painted a vivid picture of the horrors of the Israel-Hamas war in remarks to Jewish community leaders Wednesday — but the White House later had to clarify his claims.
“I never really thought that I would see and have confirmed pictures of terrorists beheading children,” Biden said in broader remarks about his administration’s support for Israel amid its war with Hamas and efforts to free American hostages.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for further details about Biden’s remarks. Two senior administration officials said Biden was referring to reports from Israel about beheaded children and cited several media reports of beheadings.

 

[Idxomer]

 

[Raoul]

These are generally pointless given that younger people notoriously vote less and the fighting will have likely been long done by November.

 

[Morty_]

These are generally pointless given that younger people notoriously vote less and the fighting will have likely been long done by November.

Actually no, it might very well go on, its been, what, about half a year already?

Also, keep in mind that Bibi has no incentives to stop, cause that could be the end of his time as...leader, we shouldn't forget that he is a criminal who is trying to escape justice at home, this war prolongs that.

 

[Raoul]

Actually no, it might very well go on, its been, what, about half a year already?

Also, keep in mind that Bibi has no incentives to stop, cause that could be the end of his time as...leader, we shouldn't forget that he is a criminal who is trying to escape justice at home, this war prolongs that.

Unless fighting stops, it won't go on much longer imo. The Israelis already control massive swaths of Gaza and are basically just down to Rafa at this point. That's not a six month thing.

 

[berbatrick]

Unless fighting stops, it won't go on much longer imo. The Israelis already control massive swaths of Gaza and are basically just down to Rafa at this point. That's not a six month thing.

their own published timeline is 6 months. they have an incentive to continue the fighting till a possible Trump term, which could mean a slightly easier green light for liquidating parts of Lebanon and Syria and eventually Iran.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

I don't think there's much basis for thinking people will forget about this in six months if it ends now. That's just the "I SUPPORT THE CURRENT THING" meme.

 

[Mike Smalling]

I'm not sure what is the basis for thinking that nobody will care in six months if it ends now. That's just the "I SUPPORT THE CURRENT THING" meme.

You don't think there is relevancy to whatever dominates the news cycle in the last 2-3 months leading up to election day?

Of course, thousands will still care so I'm not saying Biden would magically get back the voters he has lost on this, but I think it would be a big positive for him, if the situation improved. The alternative of Israel continuing the slaughter with Biden approving arms sales and meekly chastising Netanyahu would just make the situation worse for him.

 

[Raoul]

their own published timeline is 6 months. they have an incentive to continue the fighting till a possible Trump term, which could mean a slightly easier green light for liquidating parts of Lebanon and Syria and eventually Iran.

That's a possible reason it would be extended - to help Netanyahu stay in power. But I don't think his coalition will hold up that long, which is why he is also incentivized to move faster rather than slower.

 

[WI_Red]

I don't think there's much basis for thinking people will forget about this in six months if it ends now. That's just the "I SUPPORT THE CURRENT THING" meme.

You underestimate the power of American myopism, especially when it comes to foreign affairs and doubly so when both sides have the same directional view. As things stand this will not be a general election topic.

 

[africanspur]

I don’t think I was one of those, but even so that is still not the same thing as approving of the decisions made by Biden. Political pragmatism is not the same thing as unequivocal support. It sucks that our system of government is a simple binary choice with no room for nuance, but that is where we are at. Anyone who doesn’t understand what is at stake simply needs to google “Project 2025”.

I totally agree that you were not one of those posters (at least I don't remember it being so). I also agree that active support is not the same as political pragmatism.

I'm simply commenting on the fact that Biden has not done what he's done because of political pressures or electoral calculations. He has done what he has done because he is a major believer.

More a response to those posters really, because I found that argument equally silly at the same as it's looking now.

It's interesting to see that there are other foreign policy moves that would lead to certain posters becoming single issue voters though, considering the backlash some received on here for saying the same about Gaza.

 

[calodo2003]

I'm not sure what is the basis for thinking that nobody will care in six months if it ends now. That's just the "I SUPPORT THE CURRENT THING" meme.

As Americans, we don't have or maintain a detailed grasp of history. Few Americans will care. Toss in the stark binary choice in six months from now & fewer still will care.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

You don't think there is relevancy to whatever dominates the news cycle in the last 2-3 months leading up to election day?

Of course, thousands will still care so I'm not saying Biden would magically get back the voters he has lost on this, but I think it would be a big positive for him, if the situation improved. The alternative of Israel continuing the slaughter with Biden approving arms sales and meekly chastising Netanyahu would just make the situation worse for him.

The key is 'if the situation improved.' I can't see many scenarios where the situation improves beyond 'the killing stops.' I suspect that wouldn't be enough for the people who'd actually change their vote.

 

[Beachryan]

It's hardly likely, given the rate of fire from Israel, that they're holding on to any older stock. They've been replenished many times over by the US. These replenishments are done after the US State Dept certifies that the recipient is not violating human rights law, which they did most recently this week.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/state-department-israel-international-law/




This is all from October.








I don't think it's hindsight to know that Israel would behave like they've always behaved, or did what they said they were going to do, or that Biden would give them the enthusiastic support he has been giving them since the 70s.

e - also October

If it was so obvious that Isreali response would be this horrific, egregious and destructive before October, then I really have to question Hamas even more.

Israel has never killed this many civilians, has never destroyed at this scale and has never acted this much in the face of the international community. That's why it is such big news. It is atypical, and therefore imo impossible to have predicted.

I believe I posted on here on like 7th or 8th of October that the retribution would be awful, but I genuinely thought it would be a weekend of intense action and maybe 2 or 3k killed. At most. I never could have imagined something like this playing out, I honestly didn't think the Israeli's would allow the far-right elements to succeed in their dreams. Clearly I was wrong.

 

[Mike Smalling]

The key is 'if the situation improved.' I can't see many scenarios where the situation improves beyond 'the killing stops.' I suspect that wouldn't be enough for the people who'd actually change their vote.

Yeah, it’s a hypothetical. But I agree, for the ones that are now firmly set against voting for Biden because of Gaza, I suspect the damage is done.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

As Americans, we don't have or maintain a detailed grasp of history. Few Americans will care. Toss in the stark binary choice in six months from now & fewer still will care.

If Americans have the memory of a goldfish then it just raises the question: why would they vote against Donald Trump based on his administration from four years ago? Presumably they don't remember any of that anymore.

 

[2cents]

I believe I posted on here on like 7th or 8th of October that the retribution would be awful, but I genuinely thought it would be a weekend of intense action and maybe 2 or 3k killed. At most. I never could have imagined something like this playing out, I honestly didn't think the Israeli's would allow the far-right elements to succeed in their dreams. Clearly I was wrong.

Not having a go at you or anything but this betrays a lack of understanding of the general trajectory Israel has been on for the last decade or more. This kind of response was utterly predictable and if you couldn’t imagine it you just haven’t been paying attention.

 

[calodo2003]

If Americans have the memory of a goldfish then it just raises the question: why would they vote against Donald Trump based on his administration from four years ago? Presumably they don't remember any of that anymore.

All politics is local. Local trumps half a world away. The effects of his admin are far more visceral.

 

[NotThatSoph]

When you say given by Biden, I wonder what that means. If you mean delivered as part of common US practice before the current conflict escalation, I feel like that's a very different thing than if the US sent over the arms since the massacres began.

I think people like myself that initially defended Biden's support of Israel - particularly back in October/November - should not be judged with the amazing clarity of hindsight. Back then if I'd had any idea Netanyahu would have gone this absolutely insane and unhinged then of course I wouldn't have felt the same way.

You're usually not shy about calling people stupid or dumb based on their understanding of the world. With that in mind, it's quite interesting to watch the excuses you give for missing the obvious. There's nothing amazing about Israel's or Netanyahu's conduct, it has all been extremely predictable.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

I believe I posted on here on like 7th or 8th of October that the retribution would be awful, but I genuinely thought it would be a weekend of intense action and maybe 2 or 3k killed. At most. I never could have imagined something like this playing out, I honestly didn't think the Israeli's would allow the far-right elements to succeed in their dreams. Clearly I was wrong.

I don't think anyone thought it would get quite this bad. But the 2014 Israel-Gaza war lasted seven weeks and had 2000+ casualties, and that was triggered by a few kidnapping deaths. The response to October 7th was always going to be much larger than that.

For me (and others) the closest parallel is with 9/11 and the ensuing response. Joe Biden, it must be said, voted for the war in Iraq. He already has a bad record of action in this kind of situation.

 

[VorZakone]

I don't think anyone thought it would get quite this bad. But the 2014 Israel-Gaza war lasted seven weeks and had 2000+ casualties, and that was triggered by a few kidnapping deaths. The response to October 7th was always going to be much larger than that.

For me (and others) the closest parallel is with 9/11 and the ensuing response. Joe Biden, it must be said, voted for the war in Iraq. He already has a bad record of action in this kind of situation.

He warned Israel not to make the same mistake though.

 

[Beachryan]

You're usually not shy about calling people stupid or dumb based on their understanding of the world. With that in mind, it's quite interesting to watch the excuses you give for missing the obvious. There's nothing amazing about Israel's or Netanyahu's conduct, it has all been extremely predictable.

My apologies, I'm pretty shocked to hear I've ever called a poster stupid on here, I actively try to avoid targeting posters themselves, only their views or opinions.

Again, all I can do at this stage is hold my hands up and say I was wrong, and that this response has been orders of magnitude worse than any I could have imagined. And I hate that Biden - who I maintain has been a good President - is choosing this hill to rest his old bones on.

 

[berbatrick]

If it was so obvious that Isreali response would be this horrific, egregious and destructive before October, then I really have to question Hamas even more.

Israel has never killed this many civilians, has never destroyed at this scale and has never acted this much in the face of the international community. That's why it is such big news. It is atypical, and therefore imo impossible to have predicted.

I believe I posted on here on like 7th or 8th of October that the retribution would be awful, but I genuinely thought it would be a weekend of intense action and maybe 2 or 3k killed. At most. I never could have imagined something like this playing out, I honestly didn't think the Israeli's would allow the far-right elements to succeed in their dreams. Clearly I was wrong.

2 or 3k killed would be a 1:2 ratio. Israel always kills in a minimum 1:10 ratio.
A weekend is also impossible. It took them one weekend just to drive Hamas out of Israel. Their previous major bombings of Gaza have all lasted a month or more, usually timed around US elections (2009, 2012, 2014, etc). Obviously this time would be more.

I don't understand this line: " I honestly didn't think the Israeli's would allow the far-right elements to succeed in their dreams."
This government's actions in Gaza represent the centre of Israeli Jewish opinion. It matches the far-right, yes, but the country has been largely united in supporting the war effort. Bibi himself is by definition not a far-right figure, even if he has a few in his cabinet, his party is the centre-right of Israeli politics.

I had no doubt that Israel would get to about 15-20k deaths. Every US president would wholeheartedly support that. It's the continued support beyond these 10X thresholds that seems to be new - but is consistent with Biden's longstanding views towards this conflict. Of course, it's not totally "new" - the founding of Israel included the permanent cleansing of 750k people including the killing of 15k, so they have a lot of room for expansion in one aspect of their current operation.


Based on all this, and the very open statements from Biden and the Israeli govt, I am quite mystified at what you thought in October (at the end of which the death toll was already about 9000.

 

[That_Bloke]

If it was so obvious that Isreali response would be this horrific, egregious and destructive before October, then I really have to question Hamas even more.

Israel has never killed this many civilians, has never destroyed at this scale and has never acted this much in the face of the international community. That's why it is such big news. It is atypical, and therefore imo impossible to have predicted.

I believe I posted on here on like 7th or 8th of October that the retribution would be awful, but I genuinely thought it would be a weekend of intense action and maybe 2 or 3k killed. At most. I never could have imagined something like this playing out, I honestly didn't think the Israeli's would allow the far-right elements to succeed in their dreams. Clearly I was wrong.

I personally predicted that tens of thousands of Palestinians would be killed, Gaza flattened and possibly annexed. The latter still being on the cards. Also that Palestine would be on the map like never before and Hamas deliberately played the policy of the worst to push Israel right down the road of infamy.

Not that I'm particularly smart or brilliant (although I am), but anyone who's familiar with this conflict saw it coming from miles away. Yet we still still have clever people who've played too much RTS games explaining how Khamas miscalculated and started a war it couldn't win.

 

[Bebe]

When you say given by Biden, I wonder what that means. If you mean delivered as part of common US practice before the current conflict escalation, I feel like that's a very different thing than if the US sent over the arms since the massacres began.

I think people like myself that initially defended Biden's support of Israel - particularly back in October/November - should not be judged with the amazing clarity of hindsight. Back then if I'd had any idea Netanyahu would have gone this absolutely insane and unhinged then of course I wouldn't have felt the same way.

That began in 1948.

 

[Beachryan]

He warned Israel not to make the same mistake though.

2 or 3k killed would be a 1:2 ratio. Israel always kills in a minimum 1:10 ratio.
A weekend is also impossible. It took them one weekend just to drive Hamas out of Israel. Their previous major bombings of Gaza have all lasted a month or more, usually timed around US elections (2009, 2012, 2014, etc). Obviously this time would be more.

I don't understand this line: " I honestly didn't think the Israeli's would allow the far-right elements to succeed in their dreams."
This government's actions in Gaza represent the centre of Israeli Jewish opinion. It matches the far-right, yes, but the country has been largely united in supporting the war effort. Bibi himself is by definition not a far-right figure, even if he has a few in his cabinet, his party is the centre-right of Israeli politics.

I had no doubt that Israel would get to about 15-20k deaths. Every US president would wholeheartedly support that. It's the continued support beyond these 10X thresholds that seems to be new - but is consistent with Biden's longstanding views towards this conflict. Of course, it's not totally "new" - the founding of Israel included the permanent cleansing of 750k people including the killing of 15k, so they have a lot of room for expansion in one aspect of their current operation.


Based on all this, and the very open statements from Biden and the Israeli govt, I am quite mystified at what you thought in October (at the end of which the death toll was already about 9000.

Obviously I meant right after October 7th. I guess that's fair w/r to the 1 to 10 ratio, but the previous situations had been 'smaller'.

I personally predicted that tens of thousands of Palestinians would be killed and Gaza flattened and possibly annexed. The latter still being on the cards. Also that Palestine would be on the map like never before and Hamas deliberately played the policy of the worst to push Israel right down the infamy road.

Not that I'm particularly smart or brilliant (although I am), but anyone who's familiar with this conflict saw it coming from miles away. Yet we still still have clever people who had played too much RTS games explaining how Khamas miscalculated and started a war it couldn't win.

Clearly your views are in line with what Hamas predicted. Therefore would you argue that this has been a success for Hamas? It's not a facetious question, I was arguing with my wife the other day that strategically they've actually played a blinder if you consider them willing to deal with this level of death and destruction to turn the world against Israel and elevate the issue to the forefront of geo-politics. I just don't understand the mindset where a 'good plan' can involve this much civilian death, but maybe in the course of history it will go down differently.

 

[berbatrick]

I just don't understand the mindset where a 'good plan' can involve this much civilian death, but maybe in the course of history it will go down differently.

I don't know if it's a good plan or not, but there is no, zero, zilch, other ways to a Palestinian state. The plan will fail 99.99%, and that will mean terrible suffering + no state, but the alternative is maybe slightly less suffering and no state, ever.