Interesting read...the Bears D line will really have to step up for 4 quarters if they have any chance.
http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/9963698
MIAMI (Jan. 30, 2007) -- Coaches can sit for days thinking about game plans, players can have walk-throughs and practices all night long, but in the end, games usually come down to matchups.
Can our left tackle block your right defensive end? Can our best corner take your best receiver out of the game? Can your running back make our linebacker miss in the open field? Can our punter keep the ball away from the deadly kick returner?
Pro football, more than college or high school football, is about matchups. Teams quickly recognize the matchups they can take advantage of and they exploit them as many times as possible until you do something about it. When a team overcompensates to repair a bad matchup, they usually cause a ripple effect somewhere else that good teams also go after.
For example, if the Bears find out in Super Bowl XLI that one of their cornerbacks can't handle Marvin Harrison by himself and they support the corner with safety help, then Peyton Manning will quickly throw to the backside to either Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark. If the Colts coverage units can't contain return specialist Devin Hester then they may have to consider punting out of bounds or squibbing kickoffs, which results in pretty good field position for the Bears but it guarantees no returns for touchdowns.
Technically, there are 22 matchups of equal importance in any NFL game. One weak link in the chain, and a team can crumble. Here are the top 10 matchups in Super Bowl XLI and the possible ripple effect if one team has to overcompensate to support a player.
1. Colts WR Marvin Harrison vs. Bears CB Charles Tillman: Harrison is Manning's go-to guy, and they don't even need to talk to each other to be on the same wavelength. Tillman had a good season for Chicago, but when I watch game tapes of the Colts and see teams like Baltimore with its excellent corners give safety help over the top to defend Harrison, it should be expected that the Bears will not leave Tillman alone very often. If it's a straight Cover 2 defense, look for Harrison to run the corner routes and quick slants and Tillman will struggle. If the Bears let him play "heavy" on Harrison to take away the short route and trail the deep route, than Manning will go elsewhere. Whether Harrison is catching passes or occupying two defenders, this matchup goes to the Colts.
2. Colts WR Reggie Wayne vs. Bears CB Nathan Vasher: Wayne can be the primary receiver for the Colts, or he can be the worst nightmare on the backside of a rolled coverage towards Harrison. Vasher is a very good player and probably has a better chance singled up with Wayne than Tillman has with Harrison. But with tight end Dallas Clark running a seam route just inside of Wayne to hold off the safety, Vasher can call the coverage anything he wants to call it, but he has to cover Wayne on two critical routes. If Nathan plays soft and off, then Wayne runs a 12-yard out route. If he plays up and tight, then the go route is the issue. Vasher can hold up only if Brian Urlacher can hold off the Clark seam route by himself and safety Todd Johnson can help Vasher. This matchup is a push, but at what cost to the Bears?
3. Bears WR Bernard Berrian vs. Colts CB Nick Harper: The Colts are going to overplay the run early in this game like they have throughout the playoffs. Harper is going to be left on an island against the speedy wide receiver a few times early in the first quarter, just daring Rex Grossman to throw the deep ball. People on the inside around the NFL believe the Bears will take a few deep shots early in this game to Berrian, and if they do, the Colts are vulnerable. The question isn't the matchup, the question is will Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner take the shots downfield? This is a good matchup for the Bears, especially when safety Bob Sanders is way up by the line of scrimmage on first downs.
4. Colts TE Dallas Clark vs. Bears LB Brian Urlacher: The Colts will play this game predominantly in one-back sets, and that will cause the Bears to check to Cover 2 most of the time. I watched a reel of all of Urlacher's blitzes, and there's a reason he finished the season without a sack: He gets blocked too much when he blitzes, so Tampa 2 coverage is what he does best. Urlacher can get vertical like no other linebacker in the NFL, and no quarterback likes to throw that skinny short post like Manning. Clark only had 30 receptions in the regular season, but in the three postseason games he has 17 for 281 yards. Urlacher can cover Clark down the middle, but if he bails too early, than the draw play is the ripple effect. The Bears could really help Urlacher by closing off the inside gaps with the defensive line, and if there is a late draw play then bounce it to the outside where Lance Briggs and Hunter Hillenmeyer are waiting. Urlacher on Clark has to go to Urlacher at this point.
5. Bears C Olin Kreutz vs. Colts DT Anthony McFarland: Kruetz is an All-Pro center for the Bears, and he can do more damage to a run defense than any other Bears player. As one defensive coordinator who played the Bears said, "If Olin gets a chance to double on the nose and slide up to the linebacker, the Colts are in for a long day stopping the run." McFarland was a late trade from the Bucs to shore up the run defense for Indianapolis. In order to apply pressure on Grossman and make him have to throw the ball, McFarland has to occupy Kreutz in every run situation. McFarland will battle Kruetz, but in the end I give this matchup to the Bears.
6. Colts DE Dwight Freeney vs. Bears T John Tait: Freeney's numbers may not be what they have been in the past as far as sacks go, but he has come alive in the postseason. Tait will struggle with Freeney when left alone in sure passing situations. The best bet may be for the Bears to play left-handed. By putting tight end Desmond Clark on the left side next to Tait, then there are all kinds of ways to slow the great pass rusher down. The ripple effect, however, is the Bears have fewer people out as receivers or it allows blitz opportunities for a guy like Bob Sanders. This matchup is in the Colts favor.
7. Colts C Jeff Saturday vs. Bears DT Tank Johnson: Saturday is underrated. He may not have the power to handle Johnson on a given play, but when Manning goes no-huddle and hurry-up no-huddle, the advantage shifts back to Saturday. I've seen the crafty center start to win physically when Manning creates an up-tempo style. Vince Wilfork of the Patriots found that out last week late in the game, and Johnson will too. I like the Colts in the second half to wear down the Bears front, especially without Tommie Harris playing.
8. Colts T Tarik Glenn vs. Bears DE Alex Brown: Glenn is often asked to block excellent pass-rushing right ends by himself, and this game will be no different. Teams like the Packers, who play the Bears regularly, tell me the best thing to do is screen pass Brown if you aren't going to give the left tackle a chip blocker to help out. Colts running back Joseph Addai has very good hands and the ripple effect of Glenn struggling with Brown will be the slip screen to Addai, probably from shotgun sets. Glenn knows Manning gets rid of the ball, and he will short set on Brown to get him blocked early, so I give this matchup to the Colts.
9. Colts DE Robert Mathis vs. Bears T Fred Miller: If it's the running game, Miller gets the edge unless the Colts overplay the run with their safety. If it's the pass game, Mathis is a fine pass rusher and Miller will struggle. If the Bears help Tait against Freeney, then the ripple effect is Mathis wins on Miller. If the Bears help Miller, then Freeney is in the backfield. I like the Colts here if they get Chicago into a passing mode. The Colts offense is the key -- if they put points on the board early, Mathis has a big game.
10. Bears TE Desmond Clark vs. Colts SS Antoine Bethea: Clark is a bit under the radar screen, but down in the red zone he is dangerous. Bethea has made a few big plays in the red zone this postseason, but with Sanders having to play the run so intensely, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Clark has a big game.
Finally, there could be another matchup that creates the story of this Super Bowl, but there's no way this game isn't in the hands of these 10 critical matchups. It's going to be on the minds of all the players mentioned all week long and the guys who can get some rest and be confident in their abilities on Sunday will tell the tale of this game.
