The apathy in the electorate and the fake balance in the media is sending this election to a hung parliament or status quo. I may be a lefty, but I'm sane enough to understand there are levels of bad conservatives. This conservative government is by far the worst across the board. The level of fraud, bigotry and incompetence is something we've never seen.
Straylan and Kiwi politics
- Thread starter Wibble
- Start date
The apathy in the electorate and the fake balance in the media is sending this election to a hung parliament or status quo. I may be a lefty, but I'm sane enough to understand there are levels of bad conservatives. This conservative government is by far the worst across the board. The level of fraud, bigotry and incompetence is something we've never seen.
Breaking: Liberal candidate Katherine Deves new Nazi tweets slammed by Jewish groups who have urged her to quit the Third Reich references. She says her “apology stands
Deves claims Trans people are akin to Nazi's that will undertaken a new stolen generation.
@Wibble
@Cheimoon this person was hand pick by Scomo and didn't even meet the party threshold to run for selection
Deves claims Trans people are akin to Nazi's that will undertaken a new stolen generation.
@Wibble
@Cheimoon this person was hand pick by Scomo and didn't even meet the party threshold to run for selection
And we recently had Tony Abbott as leader.
This election will be won or lost in a few key/marginal constituencies. It will make for a very interesting/nerve wracking election night.
she also associated the trans community to undertaking a second stolen generation because some abusive parents lost a court case.
Sydney had the first cruise ship arrive today.
Their absence was one of the few positives of the pandemic. An eyesore, hugely environmentally damaging but a very efficient disease incubator.
Their absence was one of the few positives of the pandemic. An eyesore, hugely environmentally damaging but a very efficient disease incubator.
saw an ABC vox pop with a typical Karen. She said she traveled to the US in 2021 for the sole purpose of getting on a cruise. Mental.
You have some right idiots out there eh. I don't think there's anyone quite as nutty on the federal level in Canada as some of the people I've seen brought up in this thread (not just this one). It's weird actually (to me as an outsider anyway), cause you also have some really leftist government from what I understand. Is the viable political range that wide in Australia, and does that mean US-like polarization? Or are there just some wacko districts in an otherwise more centrist country?
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Trump's win accelerated the normalisation of crazies. We have a bad habit of importing US stuff here. The number of times i see far-right protests and a Trump flag is being waved around is too high.
This election we will likely see micro parties (One Nation - Xenophobe/Nationalist party) and (United Australia - Trumpism but dumber) claim rigged counts in some areas. But the bigger problem with the micro's is that they tend to float preferences away from the more labour/regional/union country areas to the conservatives in national elections. A BIG problem for the centre-left Labor Party in Australia is that their old voting base of miners and mining towns, especially coal mining towns, have abandoned the Labor party for the conservatives because Labor is moving away from coal in climate change policy. Conservatives jump all over that and we have some big name global warming deniers in the Conservative party. With only really a hand full of "moderates" willing to call them out.In terms of lefty government. State-level parties, labor especially can be quite progressive at times. We also have a bunch of conservatives that are "social progressives, fiscal neoliberal". Unfortunately on a federal level, progressives do have to run as "social progressives, fiscal neoliberal" to win. They do that normally for campaigning though and then get a bit more progressive when in office.
There is definitely a push within the conservative party to try and weed out the moderates but sometimes that backfires spectacularly on the religious-right, Western Australia's last state election is an example. I'd say based off the last election, the overall country is centre-right with growing inner cities firmly centre-left.
It's interesting how we seem to be avoiding some of those issues here in Canada. Our first-past-the-post system prevents small parties from emerging, which I guess also has that upside (as much as I hate it otherwise), and the country as a whole is now sufficiently progressive that a social conservative party can't get a majority anymore outside western provinces. (Or so it seems, anyway.) Economically it's very centrist though, I don't know how things would sway if people had to vote based on economic preferences alone. Of course, you also have more liberal cities and the more conservative countryside here; but even that is probably not as pronounced as what you're saying.Trump's win accelerated the normalisation of crazies. We have a bad habit of importing US stuff here. The number of times i see far-right protests and a Trump flag is being waved around is too high.
In terms of lefty government. State-level parties, labor especially can be quite progressive at times. We also have a bunch of conservatives that are "social progressives, fiscal neoliberal". Unfortunately on a federal level, progressives do have to run as "social progressives, fiscal neoliberal" to win. They do that normally for campaigning though and then get a bit more progressive when in office.
There is definitely a push within the conservative party to try and weed out the moderates but sometimes that backfires spectacularly on the religious-right, Western Australia's last state election is an example. I'd say based off the last election, the overall country is centre-right with growing inner cities firmly centre-left.
What's the likely outcome of this election? Another majority for the 1950s?
The press are utterly shameless. And the sheer quantity of Palmer United and Lib/anti-Albo TV adds is incredible.
I think we should ban all political advertising once an election is called and just allow a two party political broadcasts of, say, 10 mins for each of the main parties and maybe one for smaller ones.
I think the Libs might be in trouble in enough seats with low margins for a Labor victory, aided by some right leaning independents having a shout in seats where voters are Libs but also very worried about climate change. Then again I thought that last time. That said they don't seem to be getting much traction with their bullshit this time around and #scottyfrommarleting has been the ring master for an utter shot show for the last 3 years. His daggy dad act is seeming very old and now he is a smirking arrogant bullshit artist. But then again that could just be me. Interesting that the Libs are keeping Peter Dutton very quiet. His polling must be really very bad indeed.
You'd think people like that get called out eventually. Even PM Stephen Harper got that here in Canada. (An utter shithouse - but not so much a hypocritical bullshitter.) Guess Scotty is craftier still...
What makes it harder to predict is that Labor have more marginal seats so it isn't impossible that Lib/Nats will regain a seat or two making getting a majority that much harder.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_2019_Australian_federal_election#:~:text=The Coalition won the 2019,crossbenchers hold the remaining six.
The again some Lib/Nat seats could suffer high swings e.g. Josh Frydenburg has a 5% lead over the Greens from the last election but there is a high profile Independent standing this time who has a real chance. It will also be interesting to see if the WA state elections, where Labor came close to a clean sweep, will be reflected in this federal election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_2019_Australian_federal_election#:~:text=The Coalition won the 2019,crossbenchers hold the remaining six.
The again some Lib/Nat seats could suffer high swings e.g. Josh Frydenburg has a 5% lead over the Greens from the last election but there is a high profile Independent standing this time who has a real chance. It will also be interesting to see if the WA state elections, where Labor came close to a clean sweep, will be reflected in this federal election.
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He seems lie a totally transparent bullshit artist to me. Why anyone would believe a word he says after the last 4/5 years is beyond me. Then again the right of politics is very tribal and often truth and logic seem to be irrelevant.
#scottyfrommarketing is shit at foreign policy as well.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04...a-pact-failure-foreign-policy-labor/101000878
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04...a-pact-failure-foreign-policy-labor/101000878
#scottyfrmmarketing spunked 40 billion on US nuclear subs, in the process spunking 5.5billion on non-delivered/cancelled French subs (with added foreign affairs disaster) yet canceld an armed drones program. He is utterly fecking clueless as if Peter potato Dutton the minister responsible for this feck up.
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ion-to-scrap-armed-drones-if-it-wins-election
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ion-to-scrap-armed-drones-if-it-wins-election
Canada does not have Murdoch, that makes one hell of a big differnce.
I see Julie Bishop was blasting scotty and the libs over the utter failure that is our relationship with the Solomon islands.
They shouldnt be allowed in the harbour, they should be forced to dock near the airport in botany bay.
Did anyone watch Bob Katter, Hanson, Clive Palmer and some failed QLD premier event. Pure gold entertainment, can't wait for my coal, rifle and missile defence system to keep that pesky CCP army out of my garden.
I didn't think about that, but yes. Right-wing media try various things over here, but there's no bigger organization or centralized push behind any of it.
The Chaser about to hit the top of the Spotify charts
Internal climate change divisions in the coalition erupt
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...y-net-zero-commitment-amid-coalition-division
Not a surprise exactly but surprising that they aren't keeping quite about not really caring about the issue except in terms of electability. Probably not good news for mainly the Libs who are fending off "Teal" independents in a number of inner city seats.
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...y-net-zero-commitment-amid-coalition-division
Not a surprise exactly but surprising that they aren't keeping quite about not really caring about the issue except in terms of electability. Probably not good news for mainly the Libs who are fending off "Teal" independents in a number of inner city seats.
Internal climate change divisions in the coalition erupt
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...y-net-zero-commitment-amid-coalition-division
Not a surprise exactly but surprising that they aren't keeping quite about not really caring about the issue except in terms of electability. Probably not good news for mainly the Libs who are fending off "Teal" independents in a number of inner city seats.
ABC News breakfast this morning reported a LNP source that said seats like Kooyong are emotional/nostalgia seats that no longer matter.
Full on civil war. Not a great sign that the extremists think they are getting the upper hand though.
If they lose seats like Kooyong they really are in trouble.
I'm starting to think the extremists see a path to purity by losing the election and holding regional outer suburban seats. They want to move closer to the nationals.
What’s a ‘Teal’ independent?Internal climate change divisions in the coalition erupt
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...y-net-zero-commitment-amid-coalition-division
Not a surprise exactly but surprising that they aren't keeping quite about not really caring about the issue except in terms of electability. Probably not good news for mainly the Libs who are fending off "Teal" independents in a number of inner city seats.
Not that well defined but generally it is an Independent who stands against a sitting Liberal member who is naturally to the right of centre but also believes in and wants to deal with climate change, with added dislike of trans/homophobia.
The Libs colour is blue so teal = green and blue.
Zali Steggal is a good example who beat Tony Abbott, the former PM, at the last election. Relatively wealthy inner city seats are the main places that these sort of independents get traction.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zali_Steggall
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Interesting. Thanks!
For anyone who is interested we have compulsory preference voting system. If you don't want to vote you still have to show up or be fined but you can either leave you ballot blank, not number all boxes or spoil it you don't want to vote.
Essentially you number the candidates in your seat from 1 to 8 (or whatever the number of candidates). In the first round of counting they count the number of #1 for each candidate. If no candidate has over 50% the person with the least number of votes is excluded and their votes are redistributed to whoever they put at #2. This continues until someone has over 50% of the vote when they are elected.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/how-to-preference-voting-australia-federal-election/100991154
Essentially you number the candidates in your seat from 1 to 8 (or whatever the number of candidates). In the first round of counting they count the number of #1 for each candidate. If no candidate has over 50% the person with the least number of votes is excluded and their votes are redistributed to whoever they put at #2. This continues until someone has over 50% of the vote when they are elected.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/how-to-preference-voting-australia-federal-election/100991154
Voting for the Senate (upper house) is also by preference voting but you usually vote for the party you want. There is also has the concept of reaching a quote to get elected based on the formula (Number of formal ballot papers / (Number of senators to be elected + 1)) rounded down + 1 = Senate quota. So once a party get more votes that the quote their #1 ranked candidate is elected. After that it gets complicated. It isn't exactly proportional representation but the results usually approximate it.
https://www.aec.gov.au/voting/counting/senate_count.htm
https://www.aec.gov.au/voting/counting/senate_count.htm
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Graphs are hard
Could be something like this (lowest to highest) 1.73, 1.75, 1.83, 1.94, 1.95. Still shite though.
Could be. But I very much doubt it. Nats bullshit all the way.
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