Scottish Politics

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Why would Scotland want to leave the UK? I totally understand strong support for devolution, but what would be the advantage of leaving the UK compared to a strong regional parliament?

If Scotland could leave the UK and stay in the EU, it'd be advantage Scotland. Relocating big businesses North of a land border is going to be very interesting for some institutions.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I'm not aware of any that have actually done so, but you may be right. However, staying in the EU, and Scotland would get back in pretty quickly as they fulfill the criteria and would be filled with former EU citizens, is surely an attractive option to financial companies such as those discussing relocation to EIRE right now? Also, the geographical advantage for English businesses, not in the EU, being able to trade across a non marine customs line is surely significant? Brexit seems to me to be an advantage to an independent Scotland.

Here is an interesting article on the matter.

http://www.economist.com/news/brita...t?zid=307&ah=5e80419d1bc9821ebe173f4f0f060a07

So the 'progressive left wing' Scottish people are ready to embrace the corrupt and evil capitalist big banking sector then?

Besides, that would need the City of London to lose its position and many people think some sort of deal will be done on that count.

Scotland would also be competing with Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin for that business if London did fall and you wouldn't be in the EU immediately anyway.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

She said she would want to hold another referendum should a material change occur in Scotland's circumstances within the UK. That's happened. What part of that is difficult to understand?

It's pretty basic stuff, as has been mentioned, her hand really has been forced here, a 62% majority of Scots want to stay in the EU, Scotland voted no to independence when that meant a place in the UK within the EU, a huge part of that has now been taken away from them against their will.

 

[Nytram Shakes]

She said she would want to hold another referendum should a material change occur in Scotland's circumstances within the UK. That's happened. What part of that is difficult to understand?

none of it, im not arguing thats not what happened

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Here is an interesting article on the matter.

http://www.economist.com/news/brita...t?zid=307&ah=5e80419d1bc9821ebe173f4f0f060a07

So the 'progressive left wing' Scottish people are ready to embrace the corrupt and evil capitalist big banking sector then?

Besides, that would need the City of London to lose its position and many people think some sort of deal will be done on that count.

Scotland would also be competing with Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin for that business if London did fall and you wouldn't be in the EU immediately anyway.

The SNP are certainly not of the left when it comes to business and that will be an interesting clash to come I feel, as the left rallying behind the SNP on social issues may find the business aspects very unpalatable (the SNP has a track record of allying to dubious business parties, notably Soutar around Clause 2A (section 28) in England). It is really not debatable that Scottish politics has consistently favoured social policy that would be considered of the left, and it is also undeniable that is often at odds with the desires of big business, including notably, but not exclusively, the financial sector. It is also undeniable that this political separation from the general trend in Westminster for 4 decades is at the heart of the strong independence movement, which is further strengthened by Brexit.

Scotland wouldn't need to compete with London (and clearly couldn't), but could offer some interesting and attractive deals to UK financial and non financial businesses, if it were in the EU (which wouldn't be immediate, but would be at least a probable end state). I'm not making an economic argument of fact, but this is clearly a plausible hypothesis and a point that could have legs in any potential indy2 debate.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

The most farcical of many farcical arguments put out by the SNP is the idea that Scotland voting Yes in indyref2 would magically keep it in the EU. It won't. Scotland will now be out of the EU whatever happens with independence.

That's long before you get to the arguments about how much more important membership of the UK "free trade area" is to Scotland's economy than membership of the single market.

Of course it would, but in a position to petition to "re-join" with a very strong and unique case for being accepted. Which is, if you're pro-remain and pro-indy, preferable to certainly out of the EU and under control of Westminster governments that your politics are at odds with.

 

[fcbforever]

No...

Doesn't bother or affect me at all if Scotland leaves the UK.

I was just pointing out that for Pro-EU politicians, having as many referendums as you need to get the result you want is the norm....

Getting lucky with the one referendum you hold, having an abysmal majority for a matter that affects your country for decades to come is clearly preferably.
You know, I also think its a bit stupid and should at least require a 2/3 majority.

I will just be enourmusly funny to see the fuming of Brexiteers and their double standards after they got their own stupid agenda through their referendum.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

What is that strong and unique case, exactly?

A nation of former EU citizens from a founding member state (unprecedented) applying for EU membership that fulfills most, if not all, of EU acceptance criteria already?

 

[fcbforever]

What is that strong and unique case, exactly?

EU will go out of its ways to get Scotland in, thats for sure.
It's the biggest "feck you" to the UK there is.
And it transports a good message, people voting independence from their country to stay in Europe, its just what they need.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

Of course it would, but in a position to petition to "re-join" with a very strong and unique case for being accepted. Which is, if you're pro-remain and pro-indy, preferable to certainly out of the EU and under control of Westminster governments that your politics are at odds with.

Once out, Scotland alone would never get back in the EU. Spain would have to veto them simply to avoid setting a precedence for Catalonia.

 

[shaky]

The most farcical of many farcical arguments put out by the SNP is the idea that Scotland voting Yes in indyref2 would magically keep it in the EU. It won't. Scotland will now be out of the EU whatever happens with independence.

That's long before you get to the arguments about how much more important membership of the UK "free trade area" is to Scotland's economy than membership of the single market.

I don't think the SNP have ever claimed they will magically be kept in the EU. Everyone is well aware that the rejoining process will not be instantaneous, but it will likely happen eventually.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Scotland wouldn't need to compete with London (and clearly couldn't), but could offer some interesting and attractive deals to UK financial and non financial businesses, if it were in the EU (which wouldn't be immediate, but would be at least a probable end state). I'm not making an economic argument of fact, but this is clearly a plausible hypothesis and a point that could have legs in any potential indy2 debate.

Scotland going into a prolonged Economic depression after leaving would also be plausible hyposthesis. I agree, however, that there are so many variables at play here that any sort of absolute prediction would be foolhardy to make.

I also tend to think that this is Surgeon's making a play for further concessions rather than actual independence, which she will probably get.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Once out, Scotland alone would never get back in the EU. Spain would have to veto them simply to avoid setting a precedence for Catalonia.

Spain may well attempt such a position, but I'd be surprised if they would, or could, maintain under pressure from other EU states. Of course, other EU states may not strongly support Scotland, but I think there's at least a chance they would on simple ethical and ideological grounds and it'd be hard to resist the temptation of "revenge" for Brexit. Who knows? The argument of the Yes side is clearly going to be along those lines irrespective of the reality.

 

[fcbforever]

Once out, Scotland alone would never get back in the EU. Spain would have to veto them simply to avoid setting a precedence for Catalonia.

Doubt Spain would Veto. Catalonia not getting into the EU after the secession isn't of of their big selling points against independence.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Scotland going into a prolonged Economic depression after leaving would also be plausible hyposthesis. I agree, however, that there are so many variables at play here that any sort of absolute prediction would be foolhardy to make.

I also tend to think that this is Surgeon's making a play for further concessions rather than actual independence, which she will probably get.

Yes to both points. I think Strugeon is playing brinkmanship and there a several conceivable hypotheses - no-one knows but I think it's clear where the argument battle lines will be drawn.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Doubt Spain would Veto. Catalonia not getting into the EU after the secession isn't of of their big selling points against independence.

They have said they will veto, if they do or not is another matter.

 

[JON.B]

Didn't you vote for Brexit? This is entirely on Brexit

No, this is about a party and an individual with the sole intention of making Scotland independent, the Brexit situation is a convenient tool to use to ensure that this eventually happens.

Are people really that naive to think that even without Brexit, there wouldn't have been a push for another independence vote at some point in th future?

 

[Fingeredmouse]

No, this is about a party and an individual with the sole intention of making Scotland independent, the Brexit situation is a convenient tool to use to ensure that this eventually happens.

Are people really that naive to think that even without Brexit, there wouldn't have been a push for another independence vote at some point in th future?

Yes, there would've been (there is a very big popular groundswell) but not this quickly. It is not in the SNPs interests to play their hand right now...but they're tied to previous commitments and political pressure to do so. I think yes has a very real chance of still losing, and if even if they win, it'll be very close resulting in Brexit style societal schisms. They'd rather have waited a few years and ridden high on the post Brexit implementation ire.

 

[Unmutual]

No, this is about a party and an individual with the sole intention of making Scotland independent, the Brexit situation is a convenient tool to use to ensure that this eventually happens.

Are people really that naive to think that even without Brexit, there wouldn't have been a push for another independence vote at some point in th future?

"At some point" being the operative term.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

"At some point" being the operative term.

Quite.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

The UK were not a founding member state of the EU either.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

With a big budget deficit, poor economic outlook (outside the UK) and the potential Spanish veto. Then you have the issues of being forced to join the Eurozone and Schengen. Both of which would seemingly be unavoidable for Scotland.

I don't think acceptance of Eurozone or Schengen would be an issue for Scotland...that's more of an issue in England. I'm not an economist, and have no idea of Scotland's budget (which is a pretty opaque matter) or their economic outlook is sufficiently poor to be a barrier to EU membership. My points still stand...it's an undeniably unique situation that has clear elements in favour of Scotland joining the EU, irrespective of downsides...and that'll be the argument made by the Yes side.

 

[Full bodied red]

EU will go out of its ways to get Scotland in, thats for sure.
It's the biggest "feck you" to the UK there is.
And it transports a good message, people voting independence from their country to stay in Europe, its just what they need.

Sadly, I think you're 101% correct.

I would expect and I anticipate absolutely nothing better than that from the EU

 

[Fingeredmouse]

The UK were not a founding member state of the EU either.

Formally established with the Maastricht treaty wasn't it? When the UK were members.

 

[Crossie]

What a coup by Sturgeon, to grab all the media attention from May today! And what a predictable, utterly ridiculous and empty phrase response by May on Sky News. Hypocrisy says hello.

Would anyone know, e.g. @Cheesy, what Scotland's options are if Westminster rejects #indyref2? Is there anything Scotland can do to 'gently enforce' it? TIA.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Sadly, I think you're you're 101% correct.

I would expect and I anticipate absolutely nothing better than that from the EU

I expect nothing better from people in general. It's human nature to exact such revenge. Brexit is a massive feck you to Scotland, if you want to take those sort of positions.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I don't think acceptance of Eurozone or Schengen would be an issue for Scotland...that's more of an issue in England. I'm not an economist, and have no idea of Scotland's budget (which is a pretty opaque matter) or their economic outlook is sufficiently poor to be a barrier to EU membership. My points still stand...it's an undeniably unique situation that has clear elements in favour of Scotland joining the EU, irrespective of downsides...and that'll be the argument made by the Yes side.

There was a program on Radio 4 last week on the question of 'indyref2', they estimated that there are about 500k what they called 'yes, leavers' i.e. they voted to the leave the UK but also the EU because they want Scotland to be truly independent so for them accepting the EURO etc would be completely out of the question.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

There was a program on Radio 4 last week on the question of 'indyref2', they estimated that there are about 500k what they called 'yes, leavers' i.e. they voted to the leave the UK but also the EU because they want Scotland to be truly independent so for them accepting the EURO etc would be completely out of the question.

Interesting. Not the general position, but perhaps enough to sway a yes/no vote? If yes were enacted, thats a small enough minority to be manageable with currency union. Immigration is not so much of an issue up North, although we should never underestimate the potential for that to rise up, especially given current global political trends.

 

[ThierryHenry]

If Scotland were in the EU, would they? I'm not sure sure this doesn't strengthen Scotland's case, at least hypothetically enough for debate currently, if not in reality.

Especially if an independent Scotland were in the EU and the UK wasn't, their financial services firms would have to move to the UK. Scotland wouldn't be in a common trade area with England in this scenario, and as the vast majority of Scottish financial services' customers are English (as opposed to European), erecting trade barriers would force those firms to move to the UK, most likely London.

 

[Full bodied red]

I expect nothing better from people in general. It's human nature to exact such revenge. Brexit is a massive feck you to Scotland, if you want to take those sort of positions.

Brexit was absolutely nothing to do with sticking a finger up to Scotland.

Brussels, yes....Auchtermuchty, no....

 

[JON.B]

Quite.

Is there really an appetite for another vote? Anyone I speak to says that they should wait to see what the outcome is with Brexit negotiations before rushing into anything.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Especially if an independent Scotland were in the EU and the UK wasn't, their financial services firms would have to move to the UK. Scotland wouldn't be in a common trade area with England in this scenario, and as the vast majority of Scottish financial services' customers are English (as opposed to European), erecting trade barriers would force those firms to move to the UK, most likely London.

Indeed so, but specialism towards European financial trade, with a geographical and cultural link to the the UK surely creates opportunities too?

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Brexit was absolutely nothing to do with sticking a finger up to Scotland.

Brussels, yes....Auchtermuchty, no....

Of course nationally, but not from the perspective of Scotland...who were told, during the ref, that remaining in UK was the only way to stay in the EU.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Is there really an appetite for another vote? Anyone I speak to says that they should wait to see what the outcome is with Brexit negotiations before rushing into anything.

I'm not sure. However, levels of dis-satisfaction with the direction of the UK politically is certainly at an unprecedented high in my lifetime.

I hate the dis censorship thing. Should read d1s-satisfaction.

 

[Cheesy]

Rumours emerging Sturgeon was hesitant and called it after being pushed by the party. Interesting.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Rumours emerging Sturgeon was hesitant and called it after being pushed by the party. Interesting.

That makes sense to me. It's a bloody big gamble from her perspective.

 

[Crossie]

Is there really an appetite for another vote? Anyone I speak to says that they should wait to see what the outcome is with Brexit negotiations before rushing into anything.

A deal between the EU and UK will have to be concluded 18 months after article 50 is triggered, which brings us to some time in fall 2018 - perfect time for #indyref2.

 

[Full bodied red]

Of course nationally, but not from the perspective of Scotland...who were told, during the ref, that remaining in UK was the only way to stay in the EU.

Yes, I know....

But Cameron, Osborne, May and all the others all thought that the UK would vote ' Remain '

Genuinely, if the Scots want independence and EU membership, I hope you get it and I wish you Good Luck for the future.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Yes, I know....

But Cameron, Osborne, May and all the others all thought that the UK would vote ' Remain '

Genuinely, if the Scots want independence and EU membership, I hope you get it and I wish you Good Luck for the future.

Yes, I know Cameron never thought it'd come to this. But it has and it makes me sad frankly. I'm not sure this can be fixed now.

 

[altodevil]

Bit earlier than I would have liked but suppose you have to play to your hand. Still, a bit pessimistic it will be a yes vote with all the other main parties pro-union once again. Sturgeons speech was very good.