Scottish Politics

Adisa said:
SNP losing majority should kill talk of a second referendum for now.
Click to expand...

The Scottish system is actually designed to make a majority government near impossible - it's was a shock that the SNP got one last election.
 
Gio said:
Interestingly there have been a couple of recent gaffes by incumbent MSPs where SNP have lost seats to the Conservatives, which may have just tipped the scales in tightly balanced contests.
Click to expand...

True, I think there's been a bit of complacency in general from them. SNP didn't seem to be at all bothered about the couple of creatonist MSP's that it would benefit them to get rid of.

Mr Pigeon said:
The Scottish system is actually designed to make a majority government near impossible - it's was a shock that the SNP got one last election.
Click to expand...

Yeah, pretty much. Even coming close to a majority is still massively impressive.
 
Are the Greens pro-independence as well? In that case there's still a (tenuous) majority.
 
berbatrick said:
Are the Greens pro-independence as well? In that case there's still a (tenuous) majority.
Click to expand...

Yep, they are. They're a very democratically run party, right enough, which means that if the majority of members/politicians viewed independence negatively, they'd potentially switch stances. Basically, it's not the main gist of the party, but they're still solidly pro-independence and will likely remain as such.

It'll be interesting to see how they function alongside the SNP though. A worrying numbers of SNP voters/politicians have been coming across as a bit entitled to votes lately, almost as if it's the Greens fault for daring to split the Yes vote at all. In particular, Wings over Scotland and his followers seem to be insistent upon blaming the media for no SNP majority, and for the Greens trying to take Yes voters, when the reality is that the SNP ran a bit of a dull campaign and weren't overly radical/interesting at all.

I've seen some comparisons to Labour circa 2007-2015 when they were still relevant and moderately competitive, but it's not got to that stage certainly...although it is a wee bit concerning to see a sense of entitlement creeping in.
 
When Scotland votes to leave the UK will these numbers effect their ability to rejoin the EU and the Euro?
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
When Scotland votes to leave the UK will these numbers effect their ability to rejoin the EU and the Euro?
Click to expand...

Would probably depend long-term. Current figures look quite damaging although I'd imagine the drop in oil prices etc has not helped at all in that regard. Long-term though we will (and should) be moving away from oil as a primary resource and we've been doing a lot of good in regards to renewable energy etc.

Suppose there's an argument that things may not be much better in regards to the UK's potential financial position though, and even if we were initially rejected by the EU, we'd at least stand a chance of getting in over a longer period. Which is more than what we'd have within the UK.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
When Scotland votes to leave the UK will these numbers effect their ability to rejoin the EU and the Euro?
Click to expand...
It would seem so..

The data put Scotland’s net fiscal deficit last year at £14.8bn, including North Sea receipts, £522m higher than the previous year. That was equivalent to 9.5% of Scotland’s GDP. The UK’s estimated deficit for the same period was 4% of GDP.

Asked how an independent Scotland could meet the EU’s requirements for an annual spending deficit to be lower than 3%, Sturgeon said independence would change Scotland’s overall financial position. “I accept Scotland faces, whatever our constitutional arrangements, a very challenging fiscal position, [but] the fundamentals of our economy are strong,” she said.
Click to expand...

https://www.theguardian.com/society...inances-worsen-fall-oil-revenues-15bn-deficit

I kind of wish they had voted for independence just to see the crushing economic reality hitting people in the face.
 
Cheesy said:
Would probably depend long-term. Current figures look quite damaging although I'd imagine the drop in oil prices etc has not helped at all in that regard. Long-term though we will (and should) be moving away from oil as a primary resource and we've been doing a lot of good in regards to renewable energy etc.

Suppose there's an argument that things may not be much better in regards to the UK's potential financial position though, and even if we were initially rejected by the EU, we'd at least stand a chance of getting in over a longer period. Which is more than what we'd have within the UK.
Click to expand...
just hire whoever did the accounts for greece you will get in no worries
 
Last edited:
Nick 0208 Ldn said:


Click to expand...


The Scottish Labour thing won't mean much: Dugdale's against Corbyn anyway in the leadership election giving across a more autonomous impression but if a moderate comes in again Dugdale will be right back to supporting them and the whole autonomous thing would only be in name. Like the Scottish Lib Dems, Labour are in an awkward position because they've championed the EU for so long and argued for it during indy ref as being safer in the UK that to now renege on that and be fine with us leaving the EU comes across as completely spineless.

SNP putting it on the backburner doesn't surprise me. Brexit's caused a lot of uncertainty but the polls have largely stagnated and support may not increase consistently until Article 50's invoked and see the proper effect of Brexit.
 
Cheesy said:
The Scottish Labour thing won't mean much:.
Click to expand...
Actually it could potentially give the MP's a very easy way to formally split the party... and if Scottish Labour are recognised by the electoral commission as a seperate entity and lets say changed their name to Modern Labour then 170+ MP's defect and instantly become the defacto official opposition?

So potentially it could actually have some impact - depending how things play out
 
sun_tzu said:
Actually it could potentially give the MP's a very easy way to formally split the party... and if Scottish Labour are recognised by the electoral commission as a seperate entity and lets say changed their name to Modern Labour then 170+ MP's defect and instantly become the defacto official opposition?

So potentially it could actually have some impact - depending how things play out
Click to expand...

Those 170 MP's all joining Scottish Labour is a bit silly, though. The party wouldn't have any credibility in Scottish elections since it'd essentially be a UK wide one masquerading as a Scottish one, and it'd further be destroyed in the Scottish elections for its dishonesty. Kezia Dugdale as the actual leader of the opposition would be cringeworthy too. Also very poor timing if it comes right after a Corbyn landslide. It looks like a lot of them are going to remain with the main party for now due to the scale of his victory.
 
Cheesy said:
Those 170 MP's all joining Scottish Labour is a bit silly, though. The party wouldn't have any credibility in Scottish elections since it'd essentially be a UK wide one masquerading as a Scottish one, and it'd further be destroyed in the Scottish elections for its dishonesty. Kezia Dugdale as the actual leader of the opposition would be cringeworthy too. Also very poor timing if it comes right after a Corbyn landslide. It looks like a lot of them are going to remain with the main party for now due to the scale of his victory.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Sun Tzu's plan just seems like a poorly thought out way to kill Labour for good in Scotland.
 
It wouldn't even be subtle; as was the case in the years building up to Labour's collapse, Scotland would be being used as a tool for great ambitions.

Labour's internal devolution is strikingly reminiscent of its (ham-fisted) attempt at devolved government nationally. For now we have autonomous Scottish Labour, Welsh Labour , but no English Labour Party to speak of.
 
Co-op seems a much better avenue to pursue for that kind of tactic.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Yeah, Sun Tzu's plan just seems like a poorly thought out way to kill Labour for good in Scotland.
Click to expand...

Scottish Labour are as good as dead anyway but stuff like this would only serve to put more nails in the coffin.
 
Cheesy said:
Scottish Labour are as good as dead anyway but stuff like this would only serve to put more nails in the coffin.
Click to expand...

And send more votes to Ruth's Tories while there at it.

What's happening with the Scottish Lib Dems these days, are their prospects any better?
 
Cheesy said:
Scottish Labour are as good as dead anyway but stuff like this would only serve to put more nails in the coffin.
Click to expand...

As long as the SNP remain popular its hard not to see it that way. Its difficult to see what Labour can offer in Scotland to differentiate themselves.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
And send more votes to Ruth's Tories while there at it.

What's happening with the Scottish Lib Dems these days, are their prospects any better?
Click to expand...

Nah, not much is happening. Like Labour they want the best of both world's, wanting to remain in the EU which now won't happen but also wanting Scotland to remain in the UK. Willie Rennie's friendly enough but he's a bit of a wet blanket and he's not doing anything to win over the SNP demographic.
 
Nicola Sturgeon faces Momentum-style rebellion

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/13/nicola-sturgeon-faces-momentum-style-rebellion/



@Cheesy - How serious a problem could this turn into over the longer term?

The SNP's position is very assured right now, yet we've seen how a party's internal politics can affect how they are perceived by the public. Of course if you are powerful enough and the opposition sufficiently weak, these can be minor bumps in the road (as Blair's Labour demonstrated).

Is there any particular reason why Kerevan and Whitford would go agaisnt the wishes of the party leadership on the matter?
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Nicola Sturgeon faces Momentum-style rebellion

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/13/nicola-sturgeon-faces-momentum-style-rebellion/



@Cheesy - How serious a problem could this turn into over the longer term?

The SNP's position is very assured right now, yet we've seen how a party's internal politics can affect how they are perceived by the public. Of course if you are powerful enough and the opposition sufficiently weak, these can be minor bumps in the road (as Blair's Labour demonstrated).

Is there any particular reason why Kerevan and Whitford would go agaisnt the wishes of the party leadership on the matter?
Click to expand...

I'd admittedly be a bit sceptical of any suggestions of outright rebellion or breakaway since the Telegraph haven't always been the best on reporting Scottish matters, although certain levels of dissent may be a worry. I'm also wary of the narrative in general that the SNP have suddenly hit their peak and all is about to return to normal again - it's been about for a year or so now, and hasn't really actually shown itself yet. What's been seen has mostly been some minor divisions, but nothing too big. I expect this will largely be the same.

It's a really poor tactic, though. Ultimately it doesn't make sense to go for independence again if you're still unsure as to whether it'll go through (because a second failure would start to kill it off), and the people who want to force any such measure through are being highly impatient.

One of the parties main problems is that it's incredibly authoritarian on its viewpoints, with little room for dissent. This sort of makes sense when you see what's happened with Labour, and when the SNP has a distinct end goal in mind, but obviously can lead to some unhappy voices. Anyone who actively rebels at the moment though is a bit of a moron.
 
Just stumbled into Nicola Surgeon's SNP conference speech. I can see why she is appealing to many voters.
 
Crossie said:
Just stumbled into Nicola Surgeon's SNP conference speech. I can see why she is appealing to many voters.
Click to expand...

She's very good, yeah. An excellent speaker and debater, and manages to come across as more matter of fact than Salmond did, who was more arrogant in his approach.
 
Cheesy said:
She's very good, yeah. An excellent speaker and debater, and manages to come across as more matter of fact than Salmond did, who was more arrogant in his approach.
Click to expand...
I'm obviously looking at her from the outside and just occasionally so my impressions are certainly premature. But most time I see her, she presents herself in a really good mannor. She appears to be kind and approachable, but at the same time tough and determined. Perfect blend. She often speaks about inclusion and togetherness, that's quite different to many other politicians around, regardless of parties. She manages to portray her identity as a die-hard Scot AND convinced European: I felt this was a very strong statement when she said she felt stripped of one part of her identity when she came to terms with the referendum result.
She also has a great way for symbolic action like the baby box. Don't recall her exact words but something along the lines of 'we want children to start life at least on that matter at a level playing field'.
And she seems to have a good sense of humor and shows it. I usually switch channels when party speeches are broadcasted, but her's yesterday was interesting to follow through.
 
Cheesy said:
She's very good, yeah. An excellent speaker and debater, and manages to come across as more matter of fact than Salmond did, who was more arrogant in his approach.
Click to expand...

It's weird really, I used to despise her when she was his deputy, but since taking over the top job she's been outstanding.
 
And so Scottish Labour abstain on a parliament vote regarding Scotland retaining access to the single market. Spineless as ever, really. At least the Lib Dems had the honesty to go against...
 
Cheesy said:
And so Scottish Labour abstain on a parliament vote regarding Scotland retaining access to the single market. Spineless as ever, really. At least the Lib Dems had the honesty to go against...
Click to expand...
I thought the Lib Dems are pro Europe. Why would they go against that?
 
Adisa said:
I thought the Lib Dems are pro Europe. Why would they go against that?
Click to expand...

The Scottish Lib Dems are living in utter, utter denial - they want to be both in Europe and the UK, even though Brexit makes this next to impossible, and a hard Brexit makes it even more difficult to achieve. The reality is that if the Lib Dems up here have even the slightest spine when it comes to Brexit then they'll back independence at this stage - as usual though, they're being shown up to be a bit spineless and, at this stage, pointless.

Labour are similar. Their argument against independence has long been that Scotland can have a strong Labour government in Europe; the latter is now impossible, and even the former appears heavily unlikely considering the weakness of Corbyn and the ineffectiveness of the Labour party as a whole. Again, their only viable solution at this stage is either to back independence, or allow a neutral stance on it. Every argument they made in 2014 has been torn to shreds.
 
If Scotland becomes independent and stays in the EU, we are seriously considering moving there. We've been batting the idea around since the referendum. We like Nicola Sturgeon, she has a spark about her.
 
Penna said:
If Scotland becomes independent and stays in the EU, we are seriously considering moving there. We've been batting the idea around since the referendum. We like Nicola Sturgeon, she has a spark about her.
Click to expand...

I've got a few reservations here and there, but considering the way democracy seems to be going across the West in numerous countries right now I'm pretty damn pleased we've got a sensible lot in our (admittedly still devolved) government at the moment. Sturgeon's great.
 
Cheesy said:
I've got a few reservations here and there, but considering the way democracy seems to be going across the West in numerous countries right now I'm pretty damn pleased we've got a sensible lot in our (admittedly still devolved) government at the moment. Sturgeon's great.
Click to expand...

You are living in what amounts to a one-party political environment though, so fragmented has become the opposition. And immigration doesn't form a central part of the debate, as most aspirants seek work further south. These aspects must go some way to removing much of the tension.

IIRC, there was an academic in the media recently who raised the cost/benefit of having access to the UK single market, versus that of the EU. It's not so simple as some might imagine, and as Brexit might indicate.

I mentioned in this another thread earlier, but do you think that a federal settlement for all of the UK would be enough for the majority of Scots (even a section of those presently supporting independence)?
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
You are living in what amounts to a one-party political environment though, so fragmented has become the opposition. And immigration doesn't form a central part of the debate, as most aspirants seek work further south. These aspects must go some way to removing much of the tension.

IIRC, there was an academic in the media recently who raised the cost/benefit of having access to the UK single market, versus that of the EU. It's not so simple as some might imagine, and as Brexit might indicate.

I mentioned in this another thread earlier, but do you think that a federal settlement for all of the UK would be enough for the majority of Scots (even a section of those presently supporting independence)?
Click to expand...

For all the talk of this...I'd argue we live in less of a one-party environment than down south. The SNP are dominant but they don't actually have a majority right now - they were defeated on the OBA football act not too long ago due to the other parties all voting against it.

Again...any of the parties are free to improve their own political position and challenge the SNP. That'd involve Davidson having a spine on the EU after (admittedly) putting forward a good argument for it, Labour not being a complete shambles, and the Lib Dems doing...errr, I don't even know what they're for anymore.

A federal settlement wouldn't be bad, but I fundamentally struggle to see it happening.

I also think this is going far beyond the economic argument now - Brexit and the increasingly hardline Tory government mean we're moving further and further away as a nation from what the rest of the UK is going to be...and that's unlikely to stop with no credible opposition. With Trump in power as well, closer UK relations with the US as opposed to the EU are not particularly something we'd favour at all, and could potentially be quite dangerous due to the threat Putin may pose to Europe.

I think we're in for a bit of an ugly political situation either way, since independence will be no walk in the park, and anyone who supports it should understand that, but I see no positive future for Scotland within the UK now. None at all.
 
Don't really see how a federal settlement would work. England is too big for that to work in my opinion. Also, a federal system would mean the component parts would lose the right to a referendum, at least under the conditions of the last one. If I understand correctly, the California idea of leaving the US would be subject to the vote in every state of the country. That condition goes with federalism in general, I think, and it would be unacceptable, presumably, to those in favour of Independence.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.